Can this weather continue?

Offaly weather

Over the past few months Ireland has experienced some of its best summer weather since 2006. Virtually all areas have seen above normal temperatures during the summer period. Even prior to the outbreak of this years warm weather we have experienced rather dry,and mundane conditions. My question as we head towards the Autumn is, "Just how long can this very dry and mundane weather last?".
Weather always has an act to balancing itself out as we all know. Over the past summer rainfall levels have been abnormally low with many areas recording less than half of their yearly quota by the end of August. This leads me to believe that its more than likely Ireland may experience a very wet spell of weather over the coming months.
Nature and our climate must always balance itself out and with the level of balancing required being extremely large it looks as though our mundane weather of recent may be on the cusp of breaking down. Temperatures over the past few months have also been above normal,which also has lead to above normal levels of sunshine.
What are your guys opinions of the upcoming Autumn and in your opinion will our mundane weather be ending within the near future.
Regards Offaly Weather.
This is my first post.

octo

Hi There Offaly Weather, Welcome to Boards.

I'd question your assumption that "Weather always has an act to balancing itself out as we all know." I've done my own check with monthly rainfall data from Armagh, and there's no more chance of getting a wet month after a dry month, than there is after a wet month. Similarly with seasons, a dry autumn does not necessarily follow a wet summer, or vice versa. The atmosphere does not have a long-term memory, or at least that's my understanding. Some of the more experienced forecaasters here may have their own opinion.

I read a terrific book recently on related topics like this, "The Signal and the Noise". Highly recommended.

Red Nissan

Overall I think you are pretty spot on. The global influence of weather is to maintain an equilibrium, though not necessarily a local equilibrium.

On average Irish weather seemingly does exactly that, though exceptions exist and extremes exist and forums like these are very quick to point out that whilst we are experiencing an extreme in any one time, it is constantly pointed out that we have not exceed the 'average' or the 'maximum' officially.

Our best wet weather this time of year comes from decayed tropical events, we are more or less in the height of one of the quietest seasons so far, and hurricane watchers often notice a quite season will usually also have some of the most massive events of all time.

If you watched the tornado season in the US this year, it got off to a violent start and then became one of the quietest for a long time and in the last month of the season produced all time record tornado events and massive destruction.

Mongarra

It is a government plan that has gone awry. The water meters were to be installed before the warm weather arrived but nature, with no political experience, messed it up by insisting the heatwave and dry spell was activated in July/August. This means we used thousands of litres of extra water which could not be measured and charged for.

Let's hope the wet weather we would normally experience arrives after the meters are in situ.

Lemon meringue

We had a period of settled basically fine weather continuously from September 2011 to April 2012. Remember the 29/30 degrees in the uk in early October 2011.
From April 2012 until ( when did the cold dry spring start ) march 2013 ??? It rained in buckets.
From march 2013 until the present anyway it has been way drier than usual.
That's just my lay mans joe soap observations.
So in summary we had an 8 month period of very mild weather. Followed by 10 months of almost continuous rain followed (by thus far) 6 months of very dry weather. If you were to go on pattern based forecasting there is probably a few months of this dry weather to come yet.

pauldry

Sept dry
Oct dry
Nov wet

That's overall the next 3