A glimmer of light on the horizon?

ardmacha

Employment up 33,000, with the first increase in full time jobs since 2008.
A turning point perhaps?

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The unemployment rate has fallen slightly to 13.7%, acoording to the most recent figures released by the Central Statistics Office.

A report on the job market found the numbers out of work fell by 22,000 in the year to the end of June, with the jobless total now at 300,700.

There has also been an improvement in the number of people on the dole for a year or more, with the long-term unemployment rate down from 9.2% to 8.1% over the same period.

The CSO report warned that the long-term unemployed make up 58% of those out of work. That proportion has fallen by 3% since June 2012.

The report also noted that employment grew by 33,800 in the year to June, with more than 1.87 million people in work.

Cody Pomeray

At this rate, it will only take a decade to get ourselves down to 5% unemployment.

The dole queuers must be ecstatic this morning. Only 10 more years!

Valetta

sshhhhh..... no positivity here please.

It won't go down well.

Max Powers

Cody Pomeray wrote: »

At this rate, it will only take a decade to get ourselves down to 5% unemployment.

The dole queuers must be ecstatic this morning. Only 10 more years!

sounds about it alright, im hoping and reckon 2020 we should be back to being a half decent country. Im a little more positive than your overly negative 2023 Cody, i guess im just a positive person

Godge

Cody Pomeray wrote: »

At this rate, it will only take a decade to get ourselves down to 5% unemployment.

The dole queuers must be ecstatic this morning. Only 10 more years!

You are assuming that the initial very slow rate of recovery stays very slow.

That is not the historical reality when the rate of recovery usually accelerates.

It will be this time 2014 before we can confidently predict how much, how quick and how long of a recovery we will have.

zl1whqvjs75cdy

Do these stats take into account the number of people leaving the country?

ardmacha

Cody Pomeray wrote: »

At this rate, it will only take a decade to get ourselves down to 5% unemployment.

This is the flip side of the soft landing theory, in this case you claim the recession will go on, it will just slow down a bit.

As Godge says things tend to speed up a bit, shops see a bit more business and hire someone, government sees a bit more tax and so does not need to cut and so on. This may not be boom-boom, but would be an improvement all the same.

I was listing to the news yesterday and this discussion came up. What I though was interesting was how their has been a pick up in immigration to Ireland mainly for eastern Europe to do low paid services work while we simultaneously have emigration from Ireland to find non IT professional work.

What seems to be happening is that there is a pick up in low paid service work but the economy cant produce enough non IT professional work for Irish graduates.

zl1whqvjs75cdy

mariaalice wrote: »

I was listing to the news yesterday and this discussion came up. What I though was interesting was how their has been a pick up in immigration to Ireland mainly for eastern Europe to do low paid services work while we simultaneously have emigration from Ireland to find non IT professional work.

What seems to be happening is that there is a pick up in low paid service work but the economy cant produce enough non IT professional work for Irish graduates.

Its always seemed to me that the Irish economy has had a very narrow basis. A large proportion of the boom times was based on the construction sector. That didn't end well. When I was going to college we were told o do science there's loads of jobs. They are now cutting back science funding hand over fist so all the skilled people will leave the country (myself included) Now the new flavor of the month seems to be IT. The government seems to reel from one "fad" to another without having a clear picture on how to broaden our economic output.

carpejugulum

How many jobs are crated by the 12 billion borrowed this year? So no, it can't be positive if we are still living beyond our means.

Godge

mariaalice wrote: »

I was listing to the news yesterday and this discussion came up. What I though was interesting was how their has been a pick up in immigration to Ireland mainly for eastern Europe to do low paid services work while we simultaneously have emigration from Ireland to find non IT professional work.

What seems to be happening is that there is a pick up in low paid service work but the economy cant produce enough non IT professional work for Irish graduates.

The Irish won't work in McDonalds or Subway, that is the problem. We bring in East Europeans to do that work while our kids emigrate for supposed better jobs. The Irish sense of entitlement again.

Godge

Madalyn Aggressive Revolt wrote: »

Its always seemed to me that the Irish economy has had a very narrow basis. A large proportion of the boom times was based on the construction sector. That didn't end well. When I was going to college we were told o do science there's loads of jobs. They are now cutting back science funding hand over fist so all the skilled people will leave the country (myself included) Now the new flavor of the month seems to be IT. The government seems to reel from one "fad" to another without having a clear picture on how to broaden our economic output.

I am always a little bit sceptical of our education system when I hear graduates complaining that there are no jobs.

Once upon a time, a third-level education was meant to broaden the mind, to give entrpreneurial skills, to ready people for the workforce, to give them self-motivational skills, to enable them to be flexible and adaptive, to be creative and to work on their own initiative.

Nowadays you have people complaining that there are no jobs. Where is the initiative, the creativity and the work ethic to create new jobs?

The government cannot create jobs, it can only create an environment conducive to job creation. Somebody then has to then create the jobs. Why can't that somebody be our recently qualified highly-skilled graduates?

ardmacha

What seems to be happening is that there is a pick up in low paid service work but the economy cant produce enough non IT professional work for Irish graduates.

Perhaps the economy is producing the wrong kind of graduates? How many lawyers do you need?

Cody Pomeray

Godge wrote: »

You are assuming that the initial very slow rate of recovery stays very slow.

That is not the historical reality when the rate of recovery usually accelerates.

ardmacha wrote: »

As Godge says things tend to speed up a bit

Hold on to your hats everyone.

Progress is about to really speed up.

hmmm

Godge wrote: »

The Irish won't work in McDonalds or Subway, that is the problem. We bring in East Europeans to do that work while our kids emigrate for supposed better jobs. The Irish sense of entitlement again.

The skewed social welfare system is the problem. People working in McDonalds struggle out of bed in the morning and go to work, while people on the Dole go on sleeping. The person working in the low paid job then comes home with not much in the way of extra disposable income. It's no wonder people don't think it's worth the effort to start at the bottom rung of the ladder.

Our social welfare system seems to hand out more the longer someone is unemployed. It should be the other way around - the longer you have no work, the harder you should be pushed to find some work, even if it is a low paid job. Newly unemployed should be the focus of assistance.

starlit

I have you know some people even irish people will work in mc donalds if it meant earning money. They have been the likes of solicitors applying so ive heard in the media.

It take a long time for unemployment rates to be brought down to 5%!

Might be a little pick up but if spending improve might help. Ive seen so many businesses close down its hard to know if we get back from the brink yet it still all borrowed money!!

Companies are stingy enough who they invest money in and hire. Cost money to create a job and hire someone whether they unpaid or paid. Profits and investment more important to companies, they have the pick of the crop its an employers market.

Ive notice some I.T companies struggling despite boom in the industry. Relocation and letting people go seems enevitable.

We have to wait and see. The eu is out of recession or is it? Then again its mainly eu and chinese companies setting up here more than US ones.

skafish

hmmm wrote: »

The skewed social welfare system is the problem. People working in McDonalds struggle out of bed in the morning and go to work, while people on the Dole go on sleeping. The person working in the low paid job then comes home with not much in the way of extra disposable income. It's no wonder people don't think it's worth the effort to start at the bottom rung of the ladder.

Our social welfare system seems to hand out more the longer someone is unemployed. It should be the other way around - the longer you have no work, the harder you should be pushed to find some work, even if it is a low paid job. Newly unemployed should be the focus of assistance.

I agree.
Unfortunately, such sentiments can't be expressed around here without the risk of being vilified as a right wing anti- humanitarian.
There should be a clear difference between income on SW and that of a person in employment, even if that is at minimum wage level. But we don't have that here, and I can't imagine red Joan allowing it to happen. The labour party have lost too much support in recent times to agree to any sort of proposal that could be seen as anti the unemployed, despite the fact those of us paying for it are getting more pissed off by the day.

Villa05

Godge wrote: »

The Irish won't work in McDonalds or Subway, that is the problem. We bring in East Europeans to do that work while our kids emigrate for supposed better jobs. The Irish sense of entitlement again.

Or could it be that employers will take an east european before an irish person for those kind of work. I recall news reports of long queues for mcdonald jobs in the past

realitykeeper

The Irish government are only interested in creating the illusion of recovery in order to regain power after the next election. This requires short term fixes. Unfortunately these fixes come at long term costs which will only make our dire economy worse. The appalling borrowing is being used to prop up current expenditure. In other words the government is borrowing so they can continue to live beyond our means. Any long term capital spending is pointless without the fiscal rectitude needed to make proper use of our existing infrastructure. The policy of rewarding reckless borrowing and penalizing prudent savers will only encourage further indebtedness at all levels of society and a flight of old money to safer destinations.

The only way the Irish economy can grow in a sustainable way is to get back to manufacturing as quickly as possible. To get back to manufacturing the economic incentives must exist and the only way to do this is by slashing the cost of doing business. The government cannot cut costs of doing business while it is wedded to the notion of bailing out the banks.

Within two years the world economy will crash. This will happen because of the QE in the US and the unsustainability of similar protectionist policies in the EU and UK. As the US Federal reserve start to taper QE the cracks will begin to show, lets hope Obama will not start a war to distract the media from this.

To prepare for the hardships ahead, my suggestion would be for individual citizens to become more self sufficient by growing your own vegetables. Emigration may also be a good idea because Ireland is the worst placed economy on the planet for coping with a depression. In many ways we have made matters worse by attracting the bum element of humanity to our shores via our generous social welfare system while systematically discouraging the best and brightest from staying.

Hunchback

Godge wrote: »

The Irish won't work in McDonalds or Subway, that is the problem. We bring in East Europeans to do that work while our kids emigrate for supposed better jobs. The Irish sense of entitlement again.

Horse****. Perhaps the above establishments, in particular, carry a stigma that may be a turn-off for some, but the implication that Irish people, in general, see themselves as above this type of work or the rates of pay this type of work offers is absolute tripe and anyone with two eyes in their head could verify same. Tired Internet Myth. Circumstantial or personal experience could be argued either way - as it just has been

PlanIT Computing

Credit, cash flow, eprsi .. It all adds up when setting up shop!

worded

Social welfare versus Mickey Ds or a similarly badly paid job is a poverty trap. If the difference is a few € you can't blame people for choosing the dole. I don't condone it, but it's human nature.

I heard recently that for every irish person leaving there is a non national entering Ireland and a high amount are going on welfare. We have a generous welfare state compared to other countries. How's that going to end?

More pressing for me is the amount of small businesses in trouble. Taking credit terms of 3 - 6 months + to pay bills is not unusual. I personally see things getting worse here for SMEs that are struggling.

A rigged housing market is another worry. Rents increasing and wages getting lowered, what's that about? Between Nama and vested interests the natural floor will never be reached.

SpaceTime

It's not really a sense of entitlement. Many Europeans doing this jobs wouldn't do them at home either. They get to pick up a language while doing those jobs here. That is a huge factor in taking them up.

Going back to any country with fluent English as a second language is a massive advantage.

I wouldn't think twice about working in a similar job in a country where I wanted to pick up the language. Its a good way of paying your way and learning simultaneously.

Irish emigrants who want to work in the career path they've studied for rightly have a sense of entitlement to be able to pursue a career. If the job isn't here they don't really have many options but to go abroad or have their skills go stale and a big CV gap.

Taking a job in a fast food joint can result in recruiters going : your CV is lacking continuity ... Etc etc etc a lot of recruiters are absolutely ridiculous about CV gaps and "unrelated" work.

View

Cody Pomeray wrote: »

At this rate, it will only take a decade to get ourselves down to 5% unemployment.

To the best of my knowledge the only time Ireland had an unemployment rate of 5% or less in the last 50 years was during our "Celtic Tiger" mass delusional years.

An unemployment rate of 7-8% is more realistic to aim for based on past European norms.

SpaceTime

I have to say though I have noticed a slight sense of uplift in terms of people actually slightly expanding businesses a very small buy so I wouldn't be surprised if the unemployment rate shrank back a bit.

There is still a very long way to go but it's a start.

Villa05

We are borrowing €12,000,000,000 a year to keep the show on the road
We are paying interest of €6,000,000,000 to service our debts.

In addition there are serious headwinds: Mortgage arrears crisis, pressure on our corporate tax rate, Increased costs on our business, Attempts to blow up another property bubble, Mass emigration, Pensions crisis, Out of control Health Costs etc

The first figure would pay 400,000 people €30,000 per anum (Thats 200 Dell Closure Annoncements)
The second figure would pay 200,000 people €30,000 per anum

That's 600,000 workers between our deficit and interest on our debt. Who thinks this is a sustainable situation?

Sorry for been a bit on the negative side, but I don't want to hear "We didn't see it coming" as an excuse for destroying a country

jetfiremuck

Ffs. i see where Johnson and Johnson chose Jacksonville over Ireland to expand the Vistakon portion of the company. Where were the boys when decisions were being made. So much for job creation ffs. Google johnson and Johnson expansion in Jacksonville.

FTA69

The unemployment rate in Ireland is decreasing for the simple reason that 50,000 people a year are leaving the country; the vast majority of them young people seeking work abroad in every imaginable sphere of employment. This is obviously going to result in a drop in the figures, similarly this JobBridge scam is also being used to drive down the unemployment percentages despite it being a thundering load of sh*t. Any attempt to ignore the above factors and spoof on as if a load of jobs are being created should be shot down immediately.

ardmacha

Any attempt to ignore the above factors and spoof on as if a load of jobs are being created should be shot down immediately.

So if I pointed out that almost 34000 extra jobs had been created last year, I am a spoofer?

FTA69

ardmacha wrote: »

So if I pointed out that almost 34000 extra jobs had been created last year, I am a spoofer?

If you say that the unemployment rate is dropping primarily because of job creation in Ireland as opposed to mass emigration then yes you'd be spoofing.

ardmacha

If you say that the unemployment rate is dropping primarily because of job creation in Ireland as opposed to mass emigration then yes you'd be spoofing.

Yes. But some people give the impression that no jobs are being created and that unemployment is only falling as less people are seeking work and this too is spoofing.

OMD

FTA69 wrote: »

If you say that the unemployment rate is dropping primarily because of job creation in Ireland as opposed to mass emigration then yes you'd be spoofing.

34,000 jobs created
33,000 net emigration in last 12 months. Many of these were not in workforce eg stay at home husbands/wives and children. So unemployment is falling primarily due to job creation (just about).

road_high

We are in a better place than 3/4 years ago. Back then employment levels were falling (quickly) and at the same emigration was high. The increase in unemployment has stopped and is now reversing. This is surely a good thing.

Bits_n_Bobs

Hitting rock bottom is not a better place than on the way to hitting rock bottom.

road_high

Bits_n_Bobs wrote: »

Hitting rock bottom is not a better place than on the way to hitting rock bottom.

?

Think we have hit rock bottom and are on the way up again... That's what the figures say to me anyhow. It's takes (a long) time to come back to where we were considering the fall the itish economy took.

View

Bits_n_Bobs wrote: »

Hitting rock bottom is not a better place than on the way to hitting rock bottom.

That's "rock bottom" in the sense of "I only had a quarter of a fridge full of food left, so starvation loomed", is it?