Wednesday 28th August

rossom

I'm astonished to see 8.40 Kempton Mexicali 14/1 at such a big price. Write up to come now but that price will not last.

UrbanSea

Partner has been given a real chance by the handicapper in the last at Catterick. Not a great draw but will take a chance each way at 20/1 with a good 7lb claimer aboard.

Goldcupfav

Think Nazreef could be worth a small each way punt at 20/1 in the 8.10 at Kempton. This fella has a seriously good record on the all weather tracks and Hughie Morrison's horses seem to be coming into form the last couple of weeks.

rossom

8.40 Kempton

Mexicali 14/1

I think Mexicali ran a really good race on her last start in the UBS Goodwood Stakes when it looked clear that the 2m5f trip stretched her too far and back down to 2m on the AW I think he has a fantastic chance of landing this contest. Formerly with Andre Fabre in France, this lightly raced mare showed some good form with her best effort coming undoubtedly coming on her final start for the trainer on her sole 4 year old outing at Maisons-laffitte in April last year when winning eased down from a subsequent Group 1 winner in Sortilege (took him a while to progress to that level and I doubt Mexicali will ever be that good) in a Conditions race in what is generally pretty good form. Mexicali went through the sales ring in February this year and was picked up for 20,000 GNS in February this year by current trainer Dean Ivory. On her British debut, Mexicali ran a highly encouraging race on her first start in 13 months when a not overly knocked about 6th in a decent handicap at Ascot over 12f in May off a 4lb higher mark of 84 before absolutely bombing out on 2 occasions at Windsor and Doncaster (no idea why) which saw her fall to a handicap mark of 74. She bounced back hugely from those desperately disappointing displays when running out a ready winner of an ok event over this C+D in July on her AW debut and it was certainly a massive step forward for the mare. Settled in behind the pace under Seb Sanders, Mexicali hit the front with about 4f to go and entering the home straight she had the race sewn up with Sanders persistently looking behind his mount for dangers. Although Sanders had to administer the whip on a couple of occasions and her stride was shortening late on, Mexicali ran out a comfortable 1.75L winner for which a 6lb rise seems very fair. Sanders probably pushed the button a little too soon that day but she was still much too good for her rivals. The form of that race hasn't been tested much and is hard to quantify (runner up 2nd against 3 years olds in a Maiden subsequently) but the field were largely strung out in behind and it was a pleasing effort to the eye.

She was upped 6lb to a mark of 80 for that victory and took in the Class 2 0-95 UBS Goodwood Stakes at the end of last month where I thought she ran a really good race before stamina gave way in the final few furlongs over the mammoth 2m5f trip. From a tape start, Mexicali tracked the leaders for the majority of the contest and was challenging the leaders from 4f out before not seeing out the trip as she faded to finish about 10L back in 8th. The progressive winner Broxbourne has come out and won again and I have absolutely no doubt that the form of the race will work out really well with the runner up Lieutenant Miller finishing a place behind subsequent Ebor winner Tiger Cliff in a Royal Ascot handicap won by Well Sharp prior to this contest and I feel Mexicali certainly didn't lose much in defeat that day. In a recent stable tour, Dean Ivory said he was in two minds of running her in that race and he took it as a learning curve and that he bought her with the Cesarewitch in mind (won't get in on her current mark) and that "she's very competitive for staying handicaps off this mark" - a sentiment I fully agree with. She's been eased 1lb for her last run back to a mark of 79 and I have absolutely no doubts that this is a rating that she is more than capable of winning off. The booking of Richard Hughes (was on her once before when she bombed out) very much catches the eye given his tremendous 27% strike rate for the yard and Dean Ivory's string is in great order with 3 of his last 4 runners winning. The draw in stall 12 has to be taken as a negative but hopefully she can break smartly and try and attain a prominent position under the champion jockey as she takes a pretty big drop in grade to this Class 4 0-85 handicap. A horse who clearly goes well here judged on her victory over this C+D on her sole AW starts, I think Mexicali is primed for a huge run tonight if her draw isn't too much of a hindrance and I can see her landing this contest before going on to achieve more success for the shrewd Ivory outfit.

rossom

6.10 Kempton

Marvelino 14/1

The very shrewd Pat Eddery saddles 3 year old Marvelino in this 0-60 handicap and although he's been poor in his last 5 outing on turf (two over ridiculous distance of 10f and 12f) I think it is very interesting that Marvelino returns to the AW, a surface that he definitely seems best on, now his mark has fallen to 60 which allows him to get into this basement level race. A horse who was clearly very highly thought of at home judged on his heavy market support on racecourse debut in a hot Conditions race at Newmarket, Marvelino has never reached the level he was expected to and probably never will but he certainly has the ability to win races at a modest level. It took him 13 attempts to finally shed his Maiden tag when making all in a moderate maiden over 5f at Lingfield back in January before running well in 3 AW handicaps at Kempton off higher marks than this that would give him an excellent chance today. He was beaten a little over a neck in a 0-75 handicap over 5f at the track off a mark of 67 back in February before he followed that up with another solid performance in the same grade off a mark of 68 a month later over the same C+D. His final start on the AW off 67 came under tonight's rider Dane O'Neill who undoubtedly pushed the button too soon from the front as he was swallowed up late on to be beaten 2L over this C+D and a replication of those 3 runs should definitely see him go very close in a weaker race off a mark of 60. Since that last run on an artificial surface back in April, Marvelino has had 5 starts on turf and although he didn't run too badly at Brighton 2 starts back he has been poor for the most part which has coincided with him falling 6lb to a mark of 60 which allows him to get into a contest of this nature for the first time. Given how shrewd Pat Eddery is, the ability to get into a 0-60 handicap and a belated return to the AW does not seem like a coincidence to me and I think there is a strong chance he will leave that form behind him. A horse who generally likes to go from the front, he's bagged the a bad draw in stall 11 which is definitely a big negative but he does have good early speed and it is factored into the price and if tactics are to go from the front the you've got to hope he can get there from his wide draw. Dane O'Neill has had a fantastic season thus far and partnered Marvelino to 3 runner up finishes as a 2 year old and I think his experience on the horse could prove crucial in terms of judging the pace. Despite being a very shrewd individual, the form of Pat Eddery isn't inspiring with his last win coming back in June but given that Marvelino could have been handicapped on turf to attempt to win a race at this level on the AW I am certainly willing to take a chance that Marvelino is perfectly primed for a big run and if overcoming his poor draw then I think he has a great chance to land this contest at a nice price.

6.50 Southwell

Monnoyer 16/1

Scott Dixon and Tim Clark teamed up to score with Threes Grand at the weekend on what was the jockey's first ride for the stable and if a return to Southwell's fibresand brings out the best in Monnoyer then I am hopeful the in form pair can strike again off a mark of 67. After a promising juvenile campaign with Jeremy Noseda and one start as a 2 year old with Dandy Nicholls, Monnoyer had a disappointing 5 runs as a 3 year old for Scott Dixon which saw him fall from an opening handicap mark of 80 to 65 by years end. Monnoyer started his 4 year old campaign by scoring for the first time since his racecourse debut when landing a substantial on course gamble (14s into 13/2) over this C+D off a mark of 65 back in April as he scored a head under Luke Morris on seasonal reappearance back in April. In the 5 runner contest, Monnoyer was quite heavily driven from about 2f out and despite hanging left he landed the prize by a head (although he probably with very slightly more in hand) in a race that has turned out to be solid form. Monnoyer ran 2 decent races returned to turf after that at Chepstow and Nottingham in May off his current mark of 67 before disappointing on the grass on his last 2 starts and I am hoping the return to fibresand can see him bounce back. I have been very impressed with 5lb claimer Tim Clark who gave Threes Grand a cracking ride to win for Scott Dixon at the weekend and he is riding very well at the moment winning on 3 of his last 8 mounts and with him taking 5lb off Monnoyer's back he has a lovely racing weight of 8-7. Just 2lb above the mark he was successful off over this C+D back in April on his fibresand debut and with the jockey's claim, I think 16/1 looks a very big price and given how well backed he was when winning that day it wouldn't surprise me in the slightest if fibresand is thought to be his best surface. Trainer Scott Dixon's yard is starting to come into some really good form now and Monnoyer has been given a lovely berth in stall 9 over this 5f trip. He's got to bounce back from a couple of disappointing shows but if Scott Dixon has got him primed for tonight's contest then hopefully he can maintain his perfect record at Southwell off a mark just 2lb higher than his relatively recent C+D success.

UrbanSea

We like very similar horses rossom. Marvellino was one I was giving a lot of thought to except the draw was really putting me off. I think he just isn't as good on the turf

Johner

I think Snapchat is overpriced at 6/1 in the next at Worcester. Thought he has run with promise in his two starts so far, unlucky to bump into a good one on his debut and ran well enough last time.

sonnky

What a ride by AP there on Wayward Glance.. Carried him home..

kksaints

Anyone else taking a chance on Snow Queen in the 6 30?

Motivator

kksaints wrote: »

Anyone else taking a chance on Snow Queen in the 6 30?

Oh my god, how is it possible for this horse to keep doing this?!

Johner

Anyone backing Snow Queen deserves to lose their money tbh.

UrbanSea

UrbanSea wrote: »

Partner has been given a real chance by the handicapper in the last at Catterick. Not a great draw but will take a chance each way at 20/1 with a good 7lb claimer aboard.

Withdrawn.

Backed Hisaabaat in the half seven at Killarney. Risky but the market is positive. Tempted by R Woody in the next at Southwell but don't think I'll back it

UrbanSea

Jesus. Think the rest of the jockeys could do with being called in to the stewards room again.

andyman

That was disgraceful.

Johner

Probably one of the worst rides I've ever seen on Shalaman there. Was still on the bridle 2 out.

Slattsy

Cousin Khee in the next at Kempton :eek:

Slattsy

Shocker from Moore, got going too late but winner won well.

rossom

Jockeys up the front end went off way too quick and Sanders was the biggest culprit. Mexicali was legless by the end. Favourite was never getting beaten though and looks a smart stayer.

Marvelino was pants and Monnoyer probably got sucked into going off a little too quickly as well.

Johner

Seb Sanders is absolutely shocking. I still can't believe he jointly won the jockeys championship.

kryogen

Johner wrote: »

Seb Sanders is absolutely shocking. I still can't believe he jointly won the jockeys championship.

Yep, and a guy who drinks in my local feckin swears by him, wont be spoken to!