September 2013 Boards forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

1. Predict the IMT for September, the 1981-2010 average was 13.2 C (up from 12.9 in 1971-2000 and 12.7 in 1961-1990).

2. Predict the maximum temperature for September at any met.ie station as reported in the Monthly Summary.

3. Predict the minimum temperature for September at any met.ie station as reported in the Monthly Summary.

4. Predict the rainfall as percentage of normal values, as reported for eleven met-ie stations in the Monthly Summary.

5. Predict the sunshine as percentage of normal values, as reported for however many (seems to be holding at six) met-ie stations in the Monthly Summary.

6. Bonus question: (8 pts) predict the highest maximum on the 15th at any of these stations: Cork, Claremorris, Mullingar, Casement, Oak Park (Carlow) and for 2 pts extra, name the station (4 pts if you're the only one to pick the right one, 3 pts for two who share that distinction, otherwise, no extra points).

Use the form to enter, or post an entry on this thread.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/viewform?formkey=dElyZTJQeUJzVjdnQ1JBcThYdHpCSEE6MQ#gid=1

Deadline for penalty-free entry is 0300h Monday 2nd, then 5 pts penalty per half-day late.

Thanks to our friend Sponge Bob for continuing to help out with these entry forms. I appreciate it, hope you do too.

Bsal

Done.

Bejubby

Done.
But I have a duplicate entry due to the internet dropping off.

Maybe it can be corrected?

John mac

Done

talkabout

done

dexter647

Done

dasa29

Done

delw

Done

omicron

Done

Joe Public

Done

mickger844posts

done

DOCARCH

Done.

200motels

Done I forgot about it.

lostinashford

Done

Gonzo

done

traecy1

Done

Harps

Not been online for a few days but just about made it

Done

M.T. Cranium

Nobody's late yet, deadline is 0300h 2nd ... with penalties of 5 pts per half day after that.

Rikand

done

homolumo

done

Tae laidir

Done

dacogawa

Done

Jpmarn

Done. Sorry it's the first late entry.

nilhg

A wee bit late but done.

Speak Now

Done

rameire

Done

Strasser

Done, I'm late sorry,

M.T. Cranium

Forecasts for September 2013
________________________________

FORECASTER _____ IMT ___ MAX __ MIN _ PRC __ SUN __ Max 15th

nilhg _______ (-5) _14.1 __ 25.1 __ 3.1 __ 105 __ 100 __ 19.6 Oak
dexter647 ________14.0 __ 24.8 __ 4.3 __ 075 __ 105 __ 19.9 Cla
M.T. Cranium _____ 14.0 __ 25.5 __-1.0 __ 078 __ 111 __ 20.4 Oak
Joe Public ________ 13.9 __ 24.9 __ 2.9 __ 079 __ 119 __ 17.9 Oak
Pauldry __________ 13.8 __ 22.9 __ 2.6 __ 097 __ 097 __ 19.1 Cas
Harps ___________ 13.6 __ 25.0 __ 0.8 __ 100 __ 090 __ 21.1 Cas
Dacogawa ________13.5 __ 23.2 __ 1.1 __ 072 __ 102 __ 18.2 Oak
Jpmarn _____ (-5)_ 13.5 __ 23.9 __ 3.5 __ 110 __ 090 __ 19.0 Oak
Jerry Seinfeld _(-5) 13.5 __ 23.2 __-1.0 __ 085 __ 118 __ 18.0 Oak
strasser __(-10)___ 13.5 __ 21.5 __ 2.5 __ 080 __ 110 __ 17.2 Mul
traecy 1 _________ 13.5 __ 24.2 __ 3.8 __ 085 __ 110 __ 18.8 Oak
kindredspirit ______13.4 __ 23.3 __ 2.9 __ 085 __ 110 __ 17.2 Oak
Talkabout ________ 13.4 __ 24.2 __ 2.8 __ 110 __ 090 __ 16.2 Cas
cherryghost _______13.4 __ 22.5 __ 5.0 __ 095 __ 080 __ 17.2 Cas
200motels________ 13.4 __ 23.0 __ 2.0 __ 075 __ 097 __ 17.5 Cork
homolumo _______ 13.4 __ 23.1 __ 0.5 __ 095 __ 105 __ 17.8 Oak
Tae laidir ________ 13.4 __ 22.8 __ 1.0 __ 084 __ 105 __ 16.8 Cork

Con Sensus _______13.4 __ 23.2 __ 2.5 __ 089 __ 104 __ 18.0 Oak

jd ______________ 13.3 __ 23.8 __ 2.2 __ 095 __ 103 __ 19.4 Oak
DOCARCH ________13.3 __ 24.6 __ 1.8 __ 092 __ 104 __ 23.2 Oak
mickger844posts __ 13.2 __ 24.1 __ 2.1 __ 078 __ 108 __ 21.1 Oak
omicron _________ 13.2 __ 22.5 __ 2.5 __ 100 __ 100 __ 18.0 Oak
lostinashford ______13.1 __ 24.6 __ 2.3 __ 092 __ 090 __ 17.4 Cas
waterways _______ 13.1 __ 23.1 __ 0.3 __ 083 __ 117 __ 16.8 Oak
Gonzo ___________13.1 __ 23.4 __-2.5 __ 087 __ 112 __ 19.6 Oak
Bsal _____________13.0 __ 20.8 __ 3.2 __ 098 __ 085 __ 16.2 Oak
John Mac _________13.0 __ 24.1 __ 3.2 __ 098 __ 104 __ 19.2 Cas
snowstreams ______13.0 __ 23.0 __ 2.5 __ 105 __ 095 __ 18.5 Oak
Rickylovesuall _____13.0 __ 21.5 __ 1.0 __ 090 __ 120 __ 16.1 Oak
seafields _________12.8 __ 20.0 __-2.0 __ 060 __ 100 __ 17.0 Cla
Rameire __(-5) ___ 12.6 __ 22.5 __ 4.5 __ 089 __ 107 __ 17.0 Oak
delw ____________ 12.2 __ 24.0 __ 8.0 __ 085 __ 099 __ 22.0 Mul
H2UMrsRobinson __ 12.2 __ 23.3 __ 2.4 __ 078 __ 087 __ 20.2 Mul
dasa29 __________ 12.0 __ 24.0 __ 0.0 __ 100 __ 095 __ 19.0 Mul
Bejubby __________10.1 __ 22.0 __ 5.0 __ 080 __ 089 __ 22.0 Mul
___________________________________________________

So, a fairly normal month in temperatures, a bit on the sunny and dry side, with Oak Park favoured for a max on the 15th.

H2UMrsRobinson

Sorry late again but done!

pauldry

max of 23.3c reached at Dublin Airport
Pheonix may fire higher

Low of month could have a target Thursday night and Friday night

pauldry

A low of 1.1c recorded in gurteen

thats cold

no potential for it to be beaten for next 7 days at least

M.T. Cranium

0.3 at Mountdillon on Friday. :eek:

Tae laidir

Current Met Éireann predictions for Sunday:
15deg Claremorris
16deg Mullingar & Casement
17deg Oak Park & Cork Airport

Tae laidir

Status at 9am
16 Claremorris
15 Casement, Cork Airport
14 Oak Park, Mullingar
Cold Front should be pushing down from NW!

Tae laidir

Status at 1pm
13 Claremorris
14 Mullingar
15 Casement, Oak Park
17 Cork Airport
Cold Front arrived!

M.T. Cranium

What's with the met.ie website lately? No updates on yesterday or daily data. Somebody's on holiday no doubt.

Yours truly is in Ottawa on a business (legal matters) trip and I don't have as much internet time as I really need, so if somebody can check the highs for the 15th in any way, we'll verify it all later when normal service resumes.

Lumi

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

What's with the met.ie website lately? No updates on yesterday or daily data. Somebody's on holiday no doubt.

Software upgrade MTC, should be back to normal tomorrow

13 September 2013 - Climate Database Software Upgrade
Update: Outage extended to Monday September 16th. From Monday September 9th until Monday September 16th, a software upgrade of the Met Éireann climate database will take place which will impact some pages of met.ie.

Tae laidir

Ogimet Data:
17.3 Cork Airport
16.5 Casement
15.7 Claremorris, Mullingar
15.4 Oak Park

M.T. Cranium

Looks like a big 8 points for cherryghost and lostinashford then, but even more for the two who chose Cork as the rules say they get 3 bonus points. Will have to spend more time on the details but 200motels has either 10 or 11 points and Tae laidir has about 8 or 9 (counting the place bonus). Con has the usual five or so.

Have you ever noticed that Con is always in the middle?

Joe Public

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Looks like a big 8 points for cherryghost and lostinashford then, but even more for the two who chose Cork as the rules say they get 3 bonus points. Will have to spend more time on the details but 200motels has either 10 or 11 points and Tae laidir has about 8 or 9 (counting the place bonus). Con has the usual five or so.

Have you ever noticed that Con is always in the middle?

Con is the calm at the eye of a storm.

Tae laidir

Met Éireann back online.
Corrected temps for last Sunday:
17.4 Oak Park
17.3 Cork Airport
16.5 Casement
16.1 Mullingar
15.7 Claremorris

Apologies for inaccuracies!

M.T. Cranium

Oh well, there were enough guesses for Oak Park that the basic 2 pts goes to all those good folks, and then the four closest to 17.4 (and ties) would share 8 pts. At a quick glance, the top points then would be:

kindredspirit (8+2) 10
rameire (7+2) 9
Joe Public (7+2) 9
homolumo (7+2) 9
cherryghost (8+0) 8
strasser (8+0) 8
lostinashford (8+0) 8
200motels (8+0) 8
Jerry S (6+2) 8
omicron (6+2) 8
Con Sensus (6+2) 8
seafields (7+0) 7
etc etc (this may not be comprehensive, gives you the general drift)

M.T. Cranium

IMT currently on 12.5 C heading for 13's and possibly ending up there too.

Tae laidir

Oak Park 23.9 yesterday.
Should be beaten in Croker this afternoon!

Jpmarn

Tae laidir wrote: »

Oak Park 23.9 yesterday.
Should be beaten in Croker this afternoon!

It looks like the highest temperature for this month. If this is not beaten it would be the exact figure I predicted in this months forecast contest.

Joe Public

Jpmarn wrote: »

It looks like the highest temperature for this month. If this is not beaten it would be the exact figure I predicted in this months forecast contest.

Should hit 24.9 on Monday

M.T. Cranium

The October forecast contest thread will open today but I need to have one of you check the form, our friend SB has the instructions and I expect the October 2013 entry form will appear at some point later today or possibly Friday, at which point a link would be handy. But I will open the thread and explain what the bonus question is about there. Thanks. -- MTC

M.T. Cranium

Okay then, here are the final values for September ...

IMT 13.7 C

MAX 23.9 C at Oak Park (21st)

MIN 0.3 C at Mountdillon (6th)

PRC (rainfall) 56%

SUN 90%

The bonus question was already discussed, Oak Park at 17.4 C (max 15th)

___

I will get some scores together while having lunch here at the Craniatorium. Did you remember to enter October's funfest? We are still in the ante-penalty stages (to 0300h).

M.T. Cranium

Scoring for September 2013

FORECASTER _____ IMT __ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN _ Max 15th

Actual values____ 13.7 _ 23.9 _ 0.3 _ 056 _ 090 _ 17.4 Oak

Dacogawa ________23 __ 13 __ 12 __ 13 __ 08 __ 05 02 ____ 76
homolumo _______ 22 __ 12 __ 18 __ 05 __ 07 __ 07 02 ____ 73
waterways _______ 19 __ 12 __ 20 __ 09 __ 05 __ 06 02 ____ 73

200motels________ 22 __ 11 __ 05 __ 12 __ 09 __ 08 00 ____ 67
Tae laidir ________ 22 __ 09 __ 13 __ 08 __ 07 __ 06 00 ____ 65
Harps ___________ 24 __ 09 __ 15 __ 02 __ 10 __ 01 00 ____ 61
traecy 1 _________ 23 __ 17 __ 00 __ 08 __ 06 __ 04 02 ____ 60
kindredspirit ______22 __ 14 __ 00 __ 08 __ 06 __ 08 02 ____ 60
mickger844posts __ 20 __ 18 __ 03 __ 10 __ 06 __ 01 02 ____ 60

jd ______________ 21 __ 19 __ 02 __ 05 __ 07 __ 03 02 ____ 59
dasa29 __________ 08 __ 19 __ 17 __ 02 __ 09 __ 04 00 ____ 59
Jerry Seinfeld _ (-5) 23 __ 13 __ 08 __ 08 __ 04 __ 06 02 __ 64-5 = 59

Con Sensus _______22 __ 13 __ 01 __ 07 __ 07 __ 06 02 ____ 58

Joe Public ________ 23 __ 10 __ 00 __ 11 __ 04 __ 07 02 ____ 57
lostinashford ______19 __ 13 __ 01 __ 06 __ 10 __ 08 00 ____ 57
DOCARCH ________21 __ 13 __ 06 __ 07 __ 07 __ 00 02 ____ 56
M.T. Cranium _____ 22 __ 04 __ 08 __ 11 __ 06 __ 02 02 ____ 55
Talkabout ________ 22 __ 17 __ 00 __ 00 __ 10 __ 05 00 ____ 54
Jpmarn _____ (-5)_ 23 __ 20 __ 00 __ 00 __ 10 __ 04 02 __ 59-5 = 54
dexter647 ________22 __ 11 __ 00 __ 12 __ 07 __ 02 00 ____ 54
Gonzo ___________19 __ 15 __ 00 __ 08 __ 06 __ 03 02 ____ 53
Pauldry __________24 __ 10 __ 01 __ 04 __ 09 __ 03 00 ____ 51
John Mac _________18 __ 18 __ 00 __ 04 __ 07 __ 03 00 ____ 50

cherryghost _______22 __ 06 __ 00 __ 05 __ 08 __ 08 00 ____ 49
Rickylovesuall _____18 __ 00 __ 13 __ 07 __ 04 __ 04 02 ____ 48
delw ____________ 10 __ 19 __ 00 __ 09 __ 08 __ 01 00 ____ 47
H2UMrsRobinson __ 10 __ 14 __ 01 __ 10 __ 09 __ 02 00 ____ 46
snowstreams _____ 18 __ 11 __ 01 __ 00 __ 09 __ 05 02 ____ 46
seafields _________16 __ 00 __ 01 __ 14 __ 08 __ 07 00 ____ 46
omicron _________ 20 __ 06 __ 01 __ 02 __ 08 __ 06 02 ____ 45

Rameire __(-5) ___ 14 __ 06 __ 00 __ 08 __ 07 __ 07 02 __ 44-5 = 39
strasser __(-10)___ 23 __ 00 __ 01 __ 10 __ 06 __ 08 00 __ 48-10 = 38
Bsal _____________18 __ 00 __ 00 __ 04 __ 09 __ 04 02 ____ 37
nilhg _____ (-5) ___21 __ 08 __ 00 __ 00 __ 08 __ 03 02 __ 42-5 = 37
Bejubby __________00 __ 01 __ 00 __ 09 __ 10 __ 01 00 ____ 21
___________________________________________________

There were minor adjustments under the "minimum scoring" rule for MIN temp and for PRC. These were basically one or two extra points for the lower scoring half of the MIN and for all who were scoring on their below-normal rainfall forecasts. No scores were changed by more than about 2-3 by this.

Otherwise it looks to me as though this month has been a fairly good but even scoring month for much of the field.

Congrats to Dacogawa, homolumo and waterways for placing top three and well done to all who managed to beat the form horse (Con Sensus) this time out.

Look for an annual update some time tomorrow.

M.T. Cranium

Annual scoring report

rank/
best 7 _ Forecaster _______ J __ F __ M __ A __ M __ J __ J __ A __ S __ Total

01 447 Con Sensus _______75 _ 69 _ 24 _ 60 _ 54 _ 76 _ 44 _ 55 _ 58 __ 515 (2)

01 444 dasa29___________35 _ 76 _ 69 _ 61 _ 69 _ 68 _ 21 _ 42 _ 59 __ 500 (3)
02 433 Tae laidir ________ 73 _ 68 _ 38 _ 59 _ 54 _ 55 _ 59 _ 47 _ 65 __ 518 (1)
03 423 harps ___________ 73 _ 61 _ 47 _ 48 _ 53 _ 70 _ 42 _ 57 _ 61 __ 512 (2)
04 414 kindredspirit ______66 _ 34 _ 55 _ 51 _ 42 _ 66 _ 51 _ 65 _ 60 __ 490 (4)
05 413 Jerry Seinfeld_____ 69 _ 54 _ 45 _ 60 _ 52 _ 74 _ 24 _ 44 _ 59 __ 481 (5)

06 406 Bsal _____________54 _ 35 _ 53 _ 38 _ 73 _ 75 _ 38 _ 75 _ 37 __ 478 (6)
06 406 homolumo _______ 69 _ 72 _ 40 _ 50 _ 31 _ 67 _ 27 _ 35 _ 73 __ 464 (7)
08 396 omicron _________ 47 _ 49 _ 22 _ 50 _ 66 _ 67 _ --- _ 72 _ 45 __ 418 (16t)
09 390 DOCARCH________ 42 _ 50 _ 36 _ 73 _ 30 _ 70 _ 60 _ 39 _ 56 __ 456 (8)
10 386 rameire__________ 60 _ 29 _ 44 _42 _ 56 _ 80 _ 18 _ 65 _ 39 __ 433 (14)

11 375 mickger844posts __ 35 _ 67 _ 40 _ 54 _ 37 _ 49 _ 66 _ 39 _ 60 __ 447 (9)
12 373 Pauldry __________59 _ 60 _ 34 _ 53 _ 51 _ 57 _ 32 _ 42 _ 51 __ 439 (11)
13 372 John mac_________50 _ 23 _ 21 _ --- _ 64 _ 94 _ 31 _ 60 _ 50 __ 393 (24)
14 370 Joe Public ________ 25 _ 58 _59 _ 35 _ 21 _ 44 _ 62 _ 55 _ 57 __ 416 (18)
15 368 traecy.1 _________ 79 _ 36 _ 21 _ 54 _ 29 _ 56 _ 50 _ 33 _ 60 __ 418 (16t)

16 366 nilhg ____________44 _ 47 _ 41 _ 50 _ 44 _ 51 _ 76 _ 54 _ 37 __ 444 (10)
17 365 200motels________ 54 _ 61 _ 36 _ 52 _ 49 _ 25 _ 33 _ 46 _ 67 __ 423 (15)
18 362 talkabout ________ 52 _ 58 _ 31 _ 44 _ 44 _ 67 _ 43 _ 43 _ 54 __ 436 (12)
19 361 dacogawa________ 51 _ 56 _ 35 _ 43 _ 38 _ 51 _ 40 _ 44 _ 76 __ 434 (13)
20 360 jd ______________ 49 _ 67 _ 14 _ 46 _ 36 _ 56 _ 31 _ 47 _ 59 __ 405 (22)

21 358 lostinashford _____ 27 _ 43 _ 29 _ 39 _ 58 _ 73 _ 50 _ 38 _ 57 __ 414 (19)
22 355 Rickylovesuall_____ 41 _ 48 _ 18 _ 56 _ 45 _ 75 _ 38 _ 42 _ 48 __ 411 (20)
23 351 jpmarn __________ 36 _ 47 _ 23 _ 35 _ 54 _ 59 _ 65 _ 36 _ 54 __ 409 21)
24 350 delw_____________46 _ 56 _ 66 _ 34 _ 75 _ -- _ 26 _ 21 _ 47 __ 371 (25)
25 350 waterways _______57 _ 70 _ 21 _ 45 _ 41 _ 43 _ 14 _ --- _ 73 __ 364 (28)

26 342 Strasser _________ 69 _ 38 _ 28 _ 54 _ -- _ 43 _ 28 _ 72 _ 38 __ 370 (26)
27 339 okla ____________ 52 _ 43 _ 47 _ 60 _ 45 _ 54 _ 38 _ 17 _ -- __ 356 (29)
28 333 M.T. Cranium _____ 34 _ 39 _ 31 _ 52 _ 47 _ 48 _ 52 _ 40 _ 55 __ 398 (23)
29 318 snowstreams______ -- _ 54 _ 29 _ 36 _ 57 _ 50 _ 28 _ 46 _ 46 __ 346 (30)
30 316 Seafields ________ 35 _ 33 _ 16 _ 49 _ 50 _ 56 _ 36 _ 44 _ 46 __ 365 (27)

31 279 cherryghost ______ 71 _ 58 _ 21 _ -- _ --- _ --- _ 42 _ 38 _ 49 __ 279 (32)
32 263 H2UMrsRobinson __ 41 _ 36 _ 22 _ 44 _ 39 _ 10 _ 32 _ 25 _ 46 __ 295 (31)

Three or four entries __

Hammer Archer _____ 63 _ 60 _ --- _ 46 _ 46 _ -- _ --- _ -- _ -- __ 215 (33)
Bejubby ___________ -- _ 46 _ 44 _ 40 _ 25 _ -- _ --- _ -- __ 21 __ 176 (34)
Rebelbrowser _______ 52 _ 14 _ 33 _ 55 _ -- _ -- _ --- _ -- _ -- ___ 154 (35)
dexter647 __________ -- _ 32 _ --- _ 63 _ -- _ --- _ -- _ --- _ 54 __ 149 (36)
Gonzo _____________________ 30 _ -- _ 52 _ -- _ --- _ --- _ 53 __ 135 (37)
Rocky Bay _________ 43 _ -- _ -- _ -- _ -- _ 37 _ 20 _ --- _ --- ___ 100 (40)

____________________________________________

Two entries

jambofc 71 (Jan), 54 (Feb) ____ 125 (38)
nabber 69 (Feb) 38 (Mar) _____ 107 (39)
Quixelles 64 (June) 19 (July) ____83
Keith96 52 (July), 18 (Aug) _____70
MiNdGaM3 30 (Jan) 32 (Feb) ____62
clintondaly 50 (June) 10 (July) __ 60

(one entry)

singers 53 (Aug)
blackbird 49 (Aug)
Tazio 58 (June)
E. Fudd 55 (Feb)
Deank 53 (Feb)
baraca 50 (Feb)

Deep Easterly 69 (Jan)
Danno 65 (Jan)
howlinwolf 59 (Jan)
"plan comes together" 53 (Jan)

NIALL_D 35 (Jan)
BEASTERLY 34 (Jan)
___________________________________________________
____________________________________________________
___________________________________________________

The human contingent have at least pulled ahead of Con Sensus in the total score or MTC division, but Con is still ahead of us all in the Boards (best 7 of 9 at this point) division.

Looks like quite a dogfight to the end now as I calculate that even 10th place is within striking distance after September.