How I won the FPL last season

KevIRL

Well not me, but spiderm4tt from FISO forum, he wrote a very detailed and very interesting article

Read it here

Who_8_Paul?

KevIRL wrote: »

Well not me, but spiderm4tt from FISO forum, he wrote a very detailed and very interesting article

Read it here

So maybe 3 Chelsea, 3 Villa (but bar Benteke, who could score well?) GW1 then wildcard!

roryc

Great article. He seems to have an identical approach to me, alternating captains each week and rarely taking points hits. Obviously better at the game though!

Definitely got lucky over the course of the season but it would be impossible to win it without luck. And it was backed up with solid decision making. As he says - "No matter how well you plan or try to work things out in FPL, at the end of the day you need a huge slice of luck for things to go your way, as this game is extremely dynamic and virtually unpredictable at times." It's easy to forget luck when things are going your way, but good planning puts you in a position to benefit from good luck.

He fell on the right side of GW26 when a lot of us had to decide between captaining Gerrard or Suarez. Liverpool got three penalties iirc, Gerrard scored one, missed one and gave the other to Sturridge! It meant he bagged just 8 points against Suarez's 30. Also captained RVP in GW33 which was a vital 32 points. I remember this dropped me from 8,000th back to 19,000th when I figured he couldn't keep up his good run of form... He also managed to get defenders like Enrique and Baines in at the correct time. Shrewd transfers. And he rarely left points on the bench other than Michu at the start of the season. He also wasn't worried about dumping big players when needed, something I myself tried to do but didn't get it right near as much. He hits the nail on the head when he says GW16 was the difference. Everyone needs a week like this when they get one of the top scores in the world to propel themselves up the table. I can only remember doing it once, 2 seasons back, and I was left briefly in the top 500 in the world. I managed to spectacularly f**k that up though and finish 4,000th!

Interesting to see how early it developed into a three horse race for the title. Changes the dynamics of the game as you are actually playing against two other people rather than just aiming to get the best score. Almost turns into a mini-league! The final GW brought it back to a 5+ horse race. What a tense finish. Also worth noting that the top players were all either on FISO or FFS. I would imagine any player that finishes in the top 10 would have to be a reg on a forum. Hopefully this year one of us gets a decent run!

FutureGuy

roryc wrote: »

Great article. He seems to have an identical approach to me, alternating captains each week and rarely taking points hits. Obviously better at the game though!

Definitely got lucky over the course of the season but it would be impossible to win it without luck. And it was backed up with solid decision making. As he says - "No matter how well you plan or try to work things out in FPL, at the end of the day you need a huge slice of luck for things to go your way, as this game is extremely dynamic and virtually unpredictable at times." It's easy to forget luck when things are going your way, but good planning puts you in a position to benefit from good luck.

He fell on the right side of GW26 when a lot of us had to decide between captaining Gerrard or Suarez. Liverpool got three penalties iirc, Gerrard scored one, missed one and gave the other to Sturridge! It meant he bagged just 8 points against Suarez's 30. Also captained RVP in GW33 which was a vital 32 points. I remember this dropped me from 8,000th back to 19,000th when I figured he couldn't keep up his good run of form... He also managed to get defenders like Enrique and Baines in at the correct time. Shrewd transfers. And he rarely left points on the bench other than Michu at the start of the season. He also wasn't worried about dumping big players when needed, something I myself tried to do but didn't get it right near as much. He hits the nail on the head when he says GW16 was the difference. Everyone needs a week like this when they get one of the top scores in the world to propel themselves up the table. I can only remember doing it once, 2 seasons back, and I was left briefly in the top 500 in the world. I managed to spectacularly f**k that up though and finish 4,000th!

Interesting to see how early it developed into a three horse race for the title. Changes the dynamics of the game as you are actually playing against two other people rather than just aiming to get the best score. Almost turns into a mini-league! The final GW brought it back to a 5+ horse race. What a tense finish. Also worth noting that the top players were all either on FISO or FFS. I would imagine any player that finishes in the top 10 would have to be a reg on a forum. Hopefully this year one of us gets a decent run!

Jesus the number of times I've said this only to be slated over the years. Never good planning, always lucky :rolleyes:

roryc

FutureGuy wrote: »

Jesus the number of times I've said this only to be slated over the years. Never good planning, always lucky :rolleyes:

I don't think anyone would ever say skill isn't a major factor, but I wouldn't think there's a huge amount been the top few thousand players. Skill gets you up there, luck is the deciding factor after that. I knew a lad that was top 5 in the world a few yars back but didn't know what he was doing, just had a cracking start. Coasted for a bit then fell back and didn't finish in the top 200k. Just look at the Hall of Fame, there's not a huge amount of consistency - http://members.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/hall-of-fame/career/. Guy in 8th as an example - 600th one year, then 25,000th, then 3rd, then 3,000th. There's probably less than 20 people in the world that have finished in the top 500 more than twice, and I would guess some of the lads that he talks about in that article would fall into that bracket.

All you can hope for is to get the key decisions correct and hope for one or two bumper weeks to put you in contention! My comments to you in the past were simply for you to agree that luck was a big factor, as last year's winner has himself admitted.

FutureGuy

roryc wrote: »

I don't think anyone would ever say skill isn't a major factor, but I wouldn't think there's a huge amount been the top few thousand players. Skill gets you up there, luck is the deciding factor after that. I knew a lad that was top 5 in the world a few yars back but didn't know what he was doing, just had a cracking start. Coasted for a bit then fell back and didn't finish in the top 200k. Just look at the Hall of Fame, there's not a huge amount of consistency - http://members.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/hall-of-fame/career/. Guy in 8th as an example - 600th one year, then 25,000th, then 3rd, then 3,000th. There's probably less than 20 people in the world that have finished in the top 500 more than twice, and I would guess some of the lads that he talks about in that article would fall into that bracket.

All you can hope for is to get the key decisions correct and hope for one or two bumper weeks to put you in contention!

For me, that's about as consistent as you can get in this game.

roryc

FutureGuy wrote: »

For me, that's about as consistent as you can get in this game.

Yeah. Consistency in getting in the top few thousand, and after that it's down to luck. Proves my point really. If luck wasn't a big factor then these guys should be able to finish top 500 every year. No one can do that. The top ranked guy in the world has done well to finish in the top 5k every season.

Lemlin

Luck is a factor but isn't as important as some would state.

This game is so close at the top that one wrong decision can punish you.

I put a fall of 7k places last year down to dropping RVP at the wrong time. That had nothing to do with luck. It was my own poor decision making. Therefore, with such a tight margin of error, consistency of remaining inside the top 1k, or even 5k, is going to be very hard to master.

My own last three finishes are 12k, 324 and 8k. Hovering around the top 10k for me is about as consistent as I can get because even one wrong decision could cost thousands of places.

As I always say, good managers make their own luck.

Liam O

I'm starting to think a large part of it is luck. I finished 1000th in the world the season before last and that was after forgetting to change my team for the last big DGW. Then last year everything just went wrong for me, the players that I was more aware of others coming back from injuries would suffer setbacks and more rotation than ever. I started very badly but finished OK and got to about the 100k mark. There was a week when Arsenal were playing Reading and i took a points hit to take out Cazorla who'd been in my team since the start and he got a hattrick and the other player I took out scored too. Think it was like 35 point swing on 2 transfers or something. Maybe with less rotational managers this season it will be easier but some people get very smug and preachy when they are doing well and think that because a player has done well for a few weeks in FF that he is a good player and not just one going through a small purple patch. This makes people hold onto the Ashley Youngs and and such much longer than they should.

CSF

The luck issue becomes magnified because many people refuse to accept that the decision they made was the wrong one and therefore put things that go wrong down to luck, when often that decision one had convinced themself was the correct one, wasn't at all.

Was it the Sky fantasy football that someone had Aguero as captain for the last GW and lost by a point when Aguero got booked for taking off his jersey? There's an awful lot of luck involved at each level, or if one likes, there's a massive variance at each skill level.

Boots234

Deleted User wrote: »

Was it the Sky fantasy football that someone had Aguero as captain for the last GW and lost by a point when Aguero got booked for taking off his jersey? There's an awful lot of luck involved at each level, or if one likes, there's a massive variance at each skill level.

This was the season before last when he scored the winner against QPR to win the league but took off his jersey when celebrating. There were 2 lads at work who were in the running to win 500 quid and the lad that came second lost by a point due to this! He had Aguero as captain

roryc

CSF wrote: »

The luck issue becomes magnified because many people refuse to accept that the decision they made was the wrong one and therefore put things that go wrong down to luck, when often that decision one had convinced themself was the correct one, wasn't at all.

Yeah I've done this in the past, then when you look back at a later date you realise your mistake. Getting rid of RVP probably falls into this category, I thought it was justified at the time and he goes and bangs in a hat-trick. Single mistakes are rarely as detrimental. It would be silly to just discount luck though. I got a big chunk of sh*t luck last season though, a lot of decisions that were 50/50 ended up going against me and warranted gambles never paid off. I got some good luck the season before though, hopefully it alternates year on year! A John Terry brace in GW1 would be a nice start.

Just look at some of the top players in the world, most of them have a massively off season every now and then where they get 20k+. The most likely scenario there is they had an unlucky year, their skill level didn't just disappear for a season.

Anyway, this is going off-topic, I didn't intend to start another discussion on luck. back to the article - is there any more similar posts from previous champs?

kennyb3

The main thing I took from it was the cheap keeper & defence. I'm always guilty of overspending on defence not wanting to miss out on points, and it usually saves you on low scoring weeks but at the same time defenders get 6 - 8 points max even when they pull off a cleanie whereas midfielders and forwards get the high returns.

I look at my goalkeepers & defence at present (city, chelsea, liverpool, norwich, Southampton, Hull, Cardiff) and think i should be getting a stoke or west ham player in and using more dosh up field.

Lemlin

roryc wrote: »

Just look at some of the top players in the world, most of them have a massively off season every now and then where they get 20k+. The most likely scenario there is they had an unlucky year, their skill level didn't just disappear for year

I wouldn't see luck as playing such a big part. For me, it's more likely that they had other interests that year or took a year out after a hard season the year before.

I know my own performance dipped in the 07/08 and 08/09 seasons as I was very busy outside of FF. The time simply wasn't there to take an interest.

We've also seen how players can have a good season and then sit out or not bother the next year e.g. Carlcon. FutureGuy has also said he may not enter a team this year.

Lemlin

Boots234 wrote: »

This was the season before last when he scored the winner against QPR to win the league but took off his jersey when celebrating. There were 2 lads at work who were in the running to win 500 quid and the lad that came second lost by a point due to this! He had Aguero as captain

Is that luck though? If a player takes his jersey off he is going to get a yellow card. It's a known fact.

I'd see that as the same as any other yellow card that season. It's only being emphasised because it happened on the last day of the season.

Whatever bit of good or bad luck people say there is I think it evens out over the season.

kennyb3

This looks fairly consistent

roryc

Indeed it does, one of the few you can do it. Clearly a top manager.

Menas

This is one of my buddies. http://fantasy.premierleague.com/entry/108286/history/
Anyone guess when he got married and when he had his first baby?

This is another lad I know....but he does not have any kids!
http://fantasy.premierleague.com/entry/164152/history/

Mr.Prodston

Trigger Happy wrote: »

This is one of my buddies. http://fantasy.premierleague.com/entry/108286/history/
Anyone guess when he got married and when he had his first baby?

This is another lad I know....but he does not have any kids!
http://fantasy.premierleague.com/entry/164152/history/

I would have put it down to all the Tennis he's been playing maybe......pfft 2 grand slams and an Olympic gold is nothing compared to FPL success :pac:

Lemlin

Trigger Happy wrote: »

This is one of my buddies. http://fantasy.premierleague.com/entry/108286/history/
Anyone guess when he got married and when he had his first

Similar experience to my own so. Tell him it gets easier. When they grow and want to sit and watch Mickey Mouse Clubhouse or Transformers at least an IPhone and FF keep you occupied!

FutureGuy

Lemlin wrote: »

I wouldn't see luck as playing such a big part. For me, it's more likely that they had other interests that year or took a year out after a hard season the year before.

I know my own performance dipped in the 07/08 and 08/09 seasons as I was very busy outside of FF. The time simply wasn't there to take an interest.

We've also seen how players can have a good season and then sit out or not bother the next year e.g. Carlcon. FutureGuy has also said he may not enter a team this year.

I had someone completely fcuk me over in the last week. iTunes hacked. Hotmail hacked. Credit Cards hacked. Identity theft. Fraud.

As Lemlin said, I haven't a team set and I honestly cannot see myself playing this year.

Marathon training is eating my free time too.

Lemlin

FutureGuy wrote: »

I had someone completely fcuk me over in the last week. iTunes hacked. Hotmail hacked. Credit Cards hacked. Identity theft. Fraud.

As Lemlin said, I haven't a team set and I honestly cannot see myself playing this year.

Marathon training is eating my free time too.

It's one of a multitude of things eating my time too.

My team is picked now. It'll be staying the way it is.

Will see how I go the first few weeks but I'm not overly pushed. I'll win my personal leagues for cash with little or no effort anyway.

Am away next week for ten days and leaving the phone away do that'll help keep me away.

Maysa07

Great read, So are we all going for a great start by selecting 5 or 6 players of Villa and Chelsea and then using the wild card in GW2 as both team are not playing in GW3.

kennyb3

Maysa07 wrote: »

Great read, So are we all going for a great start by selecting 5 or 6 players of Villa and Chelsea and then using the wild card in GW2 as both team are not playing in GW3.

Every season is different.

I think with the fixtures turning for Man U at GW 4, swansea from GW5 and other transfer issues I'd say most will wait till GW3 if they do decide to WC early.

KevIRL

With so much real world transfer issues to be sorted I dont believe personally that the wild card should be played week 1 this season

Maysa07

kennyb3 wrote: »

Every season is different.

I think with the fixtures turning for Man U at GW 4, swansea from GW5 and other transfer issues I'd say most will wait till GW3 if they do decide to WC early.

Last season - GW1 was a double GW witch involved Chelsea and Reading. Last years winner decided to go 'all out' for this opening DGW by loading up on the maximum allowance of three players from each of the two teams involved because he wanted a good start. Come game week two he used his Wildcard.


Next weeks GW1 fixture is also a DGW with Villa and Chelsea playing twice, so i'm just wondering if its a good idea to follow the same tactic and go for a good start?

Dearg81

Maysa07 wrote: »

Last season - GW1 was a double GW witch involved Chelsea and Reading. Last years winner decided to go 'all out' for this opening DGW by loading up on the maximum allowance of three players from each of the two teams involved because he wanted a good start. Come game week two he used his Wildcard.


Next weeks GW1 fixture is also a DGW with Villa and Chelsea playing twice, so i'm just wondering if its a good idea to follow the same tactic and go for a good start?

It's just a tactic, you wont know if it's a good one til after week 1. Just because it worked for your man last year does not mean it will work this year.

For what it's worth I dont see Villa players scoring well in week 1 bar maybe Benteke. I'm tempted to get 3 Chelsea with no wild card plans for week 2 or 3 and I'm not gonna bother with any Villa players.

OneColdHand

Maysa07 wrote: »

Last season - GW1 was a double GW witch involved Chelsea and Reading. Last years winner decidedto go 'all out' for this opening DGW by loading up on the maximum allowance of three players from each of the two teams involved because he wanted a good start. Come game week two he used his Wildcard.


Next weeks GW1 fixture is
also a DGW with Villa and Chelsea playing twice, so i'm just wondering if its a good idea to follow the same tactic and go for a good start?

It came off for that guy, and fair play to him. But it's also VERY risky. It's Chelsea and Villa don't do well, you've spent your wildcard before most other peolpe, and you're no further ahead of them.

kennyb3

Maysa07 wrote: »

Last season - GW1 was a double GW witch involved Chelsea and Reading. Last years winner decided to go 'all out' for this opening DGW by loading up on the maximum allowance of three players from each of the two teams involved because he wanted a good start. Come game week two he used his Wildcard.


Next weeks GW1 fixture is also a DGW with Villa and Chelsea playing twice, so i'm just wondering if its a good idea to follow the same tactic and go for a good start?

Read my post again. Different GW2/3/4/5 fixtures than last year. Different players, different injuries/transfers etc, hell even different managers and rotational issues.

You can follow the exact same strategy as last year and it might not necessarily work. (and that's even if chelsea go nuts like they did last year). One example being Ivanovich was a cert last year, we're not certain of this this time around.

The guy won because he's good not because he played his WC week 1. 70k other people prob did too and they might have finished anywhere from last to 2nd - we don't know.

As I hinted at I think if you want to play an early WC this year go for GW3 or GW4 (imho). That's based on this years issues.

Maysa07

Dearg81 wrote: »

It's just a tactic, you wont know if it's a good one til after week 1. Just because it worked for your man last year does not mean it will work this year.

For what it's worth I dont see Villa players scoring well in week 1 bar maybe Benteke. I'm tempted to get 3 Chelsea with no wild card plans for week 2 or 3 and I'm not gonna bother with any Villa players.

If pushed id go for Lowton, Bentake, and Weimann of Villa. You could be save alright going for 3 Chelsea players.

OneColdHand wrote: »

It came off for that guy, and fair play to him. But it's also VERY risky. It's Chelsea and Villa don't do well, you've spent your wildcard before most other peolpe, and you're no further ahead of them.

It's a real risk, and if the players you picked didn't perform you'd be in trouble so early.

Maysa07

kennyb3 wrote: »

Read my post again. Different GW2/3/4/5 fixtures than last year. Different players, different injuries/transfers etc, hell even different managers and rotational issues.

You can follow the exact same strategy as last year and it might not necessarily work. (and that's even if chelsea go nuts like they did last year). One example being Ivanovich was a cert last year, we're not certain of this this time around.

The guy won because he's good not because he played his WC week 1. 70k other people prob did too and they might have finished anywhere from last to 2nd - we don't know.

As I hinted at I think if you want to play an early WC this year go for GW3 or GW4 (imho). That's based on this years issues.

I think your right in regards to the amount of uncertainty around teams this year - new managers etc.. and using your WC early is a high risk and discussing all these different tactics and approaches make it such a great game.

kennyb3

Maysa07 wrote: »

I think your right in regards to the amount of uncertainty around teams this year - new managers etc.. and using your WC early is a high risk and discussing all these different tactics and approaches make it such a great game.

Agree. There seems to be 3 distinct issues this year; 1. Those setting up for the long term v's those mainly who'll WC early (mainly after GW3) 2. To RVP or not to RVP? 3. The Suarez/Bale and Rooney situations.

Then every season you've;

- new players
- new managers
- new formations/rotation
- transfer saga's

And every year you have to assess where the points will come from position wise (think back to the old jose defences whereas in recent years its been all strikers and mids) and related value. There is fixture patches to route through etc etc. All in all a great game!

jive

Benefit of using the WC early is that you can see who performs well at the start of the season. 1 game isn't a great sample size although if someone does light the place up like Michu did in game 1 last season then you can get them in and it's fairly likely they will continue to deliver for the immediate future at least. If there are 2 or 3 standout players then using the WC after week 1 is certainly a good tactic, IMO.

Sgt Pepper 64

ive noticed most of the better managers, rarely take points hit and sometime rarely make any transfers

Jimmy Iovine

Sgt Pepper 64 wrote: »

ive noticed most of the better managers, rarely take points hit and sometime rarely make any transfers

I live by this rule. 4,000th two years ago and 5,700th last year.