Saturday 10th

longshotvalue

Ascot 1:30

Two of my selections from the last week or 2 clash tomorrow after unlucky runs last time out. Brockwell was left with far too much to do last time behind Broxburne at Goodwood and should be close with a 5lbs turnaround but the real value here looks to be Saptapadi. He has caught the eye in his last few runs and really got blocked last time out at Goodwood when he was stopped a number of times towards the finish in a better race than this. He can certainly perform of this mark and the step up in trip looks sure to suit tomorrow. 14/1 looks a great price and I can’t see him going off at that price.


2 Points win 14/1 Stan James/Will Hill

longshotvalue

Newmarket 20:20 FRIDAY


Had to put in this bet as I’ve just noticed that Secret Witness is out in this race after what I considered a return to form last time out in the stewards cup. He is a stonking price on Betfair of 18, and a repeat of last week’s run with an additional 3 lbs reduction in mark could have him right in the firing line here.


2 Points win Betfair 18

mountai

Had a good E/W bet on Secret Witness (thanks aidankkk) am going to invest it all on Educate tomorrow. Had terrible luck in running on last two occasions, and hopefully Murtagh can get him into a place at least.

Overthelast

I'm following you in on educate. He's due a turn.

rossom

1.30 Ascot

Saptapadi 14/1

I very much believe that Brian Ellison's 7 year old still retains a lot of his ability and having travelled like a dream at Goodwood when I put him up lTO when left with nowhere to go I think he's primed for a massive run in this. Saptapdi returned from an unsuccessful campaign in Australia and off a mark of 93 this well handicapped gelding looks like he'll need a penalty if he wants another crack at the Ebor - a race where he ran a blinder in 5th off an 12lb higher mark in 2011. Prior to that race, he was a very eye catching 5th in a Group 2 at York over 10f and which proceeded an equally eye catching 5th in a handicap over the same C+D off a mark of 105 in July 2011. After the 2011 Ebor, Brian Ellison brought Saptapadi over for a crack at the Melbourne Cup with stablemate Moyenne Corniche and although that adventure didn't work out (subsequently stayed in Australia with Jim Conlan; very poor) its great to see him back on British soil with Ellison where he has caught the eye on 3 of his 4 starts since returnig to the Yorkshire trainer. The first of which came at York in May over 1m4f off a 2lb higher mark where he shaped very encouragingly under a sympathetic enough ride when he only tired late on before disappointing at Pontefract in a Listed contest subsequently. I'm sticking a line through that run, however, and he again caught the eye on his last start earlier this month in the John Smith's Cup where. Having been settled in the rear of the field, Saptapadi travelled beautifully through the race but he looked to get caught tacked for speed over the 10f trip as he finished a very credible 7th beaten only 4L. Saptapadi stepped up to 1m6f on his last start at Goodwood (definitely best over long distances) and having never come off the bridle he found a wall of horses in front of him as Dane O'Neill saved him for another day. The handicapper relented a further 1lb for that and off a mark of 93 I think he has more than enough ability to be very competitive. He's up to 2m today for only the 2nd time in his career and on the first occasion he found no extra late on at Sandown's stiff track having pulled hard throughout and ran loose before the start and I have no doubt about his ability to stay the trip. If Ellison wants to get Saptapadi into Europe's richest handicap then he's going to need to pick up a penalty in the few weeks and you've got to assume he'll be trying very hard to do so today. I don't know a whole lot about Brazilian jockey Joao Moreira but the 3 time leading jockey in Singapore looks an accomplished rider in a few videos I've watched and I definitely feel a lot worse jockeys in the race could be on board. If getting a clean run of things, I think a massive run is on the cards and if he can land this contest then I definitely think he'll line up for another crack at the Ebor next month.

2.20 Haydock

Educate 11/1

I think everyone knows all about this fella at this stage and how I feel about his ability so won't go into much details. I'm on at 11s and I think its a very good price. At Royal Ascot he was full of running under a psychotic ride from Spencer who was waiting for a gap that was never going to arrive. Last time at York he definitely ran very flat in a muddling race where he was too keen. However, I found a conversation on twitter between Terry Norman (former yard planner) and Jamie Spencer which took place prior to the race where Norman said that Educate had only done one piece of work since his run at Ascot and he didn't think he was ready. Unfortunately for me, I didn't see it until after the race but I'm putting a line through that run. The booking of Murtagh clearly signifies to me that he's working very well at home and there is nobody riding better than Murtagh at the moment. There is no doubt in my mind he's much better than 99 on his best day and if he's on his game he has to go extremely close. Yard form is a bit of a worry though so definitely wouldn't be going in too heavily.

I would highly recommend backing Sennockian Star 5/1 as well though. 3 year olds have won 4 of the last 5 renewals from a fairly limited number of runners and the weight for age allowance is clearly a huge advantage in this race. Johnston's representative is the only 3 year old in the field and given that he's in ridiculously good form and looking very progressive I think it would be very folly to not have at least a saver. Couldn't go wrong with a few quid on the forecast as well.

longshotvalue

Ascot 12:55

Redact is one I’ve been looking at coming down the handicap, and he could well stand a chance today at a big price here. He looked to run well enough a few times this year, including when 3rd to Pintura in May and seemed to be gradually improving in his last 2 runs. That combined with a nice drop in weights leaves him on an interesting mark of 92. He has an excellent Jockey up today and 18/1 seems a great price.


1 Point win 18/1 Generally

longshotvalue

Ascot 2:05

There won’t be a lot between most of these and the value here appears to be Zero Money. He always seems to perform here and has a 5lbs swing in the weight with Racy for a 1 ½ length beating here behind Masamah. If he can repeat that form today he won’t be far away and 11/1 looks Value . Judge ‘N Jury looks a big danger and is probably worth a saver at 9/1, given that he looks to be getting back to form.


1 Point win Zero Money 11/1 888 & Will Hill..
½ Point win Judge ‘N Jury 9/1 Bet Victor

mountai

Backed Educate last night @12s with Bet 365, now 9s . PP have it at 6s. Is this the Murtagh Factor??!!!

Francie Barrett

Kings Fiddle for the bumper in Kilbeggan.

dvcireland

might be of interest

Dublin Horse Show - Racehorse to Riding Horse


http://www.dublinhorseshow.com/2013/startlist_class_30.htm

http://www.dublinhorseshow.ie/media/UNDERSTARTERSORDERSFORTHE2013DISCOVERIRELANDDUBLINHORSESHOW1.pdf

UrbanSea

aidankkk wrote: »

Ascot 12:55

Redact is one I’ve been looking at coming down the handicap, and he could well stand a chance today at a big price here. He looked to run well enough a few times this year, including when 3rd to Pintura in May and seemed to be gradually improving in his last 2 runs. That combined with a nice drop in weights leaves him on an interesting mark of 92. He has an excellent Jockey up today and 18/1 seems a great price.


1 Point win 18/1 Generally

One I've had my eye on for quite a while now but convinced he is a 7 furlong horse

UrbanSea

Good ride Joseph O'Brien

mailburner

sennockian star for me at 5s
just missed the 6s earlier which seemed massive

TheMilkyPirate

Was swinging when he nearly came down

Overthelast

No luck educate.

hawkhead

That was just plain bad luck for Educate and Murtagh

rossom

First things first I'm very happy that the potentially horrid incident has left Educate unscathed. He would have absolutely pissed in had he got a clear run. Finished 3rd barely off the snaff. Murtagh was taking care of him after that stumble but realised he could take 3rd with ease and did so.

Overthelast

I wouldn't have criticised murtagh if he just eased him down after that incident. That could have turned out really nasty.

Francie Barrett

Chesterfield in the 2:40 for me, I think it wins easy.

Francie Barrett

Oh dear

rossom

Overthelast wrote: »

I wouldn't have criticised murtagh if he just eased him down after that incident. That could have turned out really nasty.

For a furlong or so it was exactly what he was doing. Think he realised though late in the day he was ok and decided he may as well grab place money because he was easily able to do so.

mountai

rossom wrote: »

First things first I'm very happy that the potentially horrid incident has left Educate unscathed. He would have absolutely pissed in had he got a clear run. Finished 3rd barely off the snaff. Murtagh was taking care of him after that stumble but realised he could take 3rd with ease and did so.

Agree 100% . Happy with E/W bet . Will his luck EVER change???

mailburner

surprised at telescope getting beat
glad it was 4/9 and not near evens for my sake

Backstreet Moyes

mailburner wrote: »

surprised at telescope getting beat
glad it was 4/9 and not near evens for my sake

When you walk into Paddy Power and he is in a good few enhanced doubles i get worried. Very disappointing performance.

mailburner

ultrasonic very short in the next even if it has the best form
taking a punt on expressly at 3s
It could be anything

Gringo180

Lady Of Glencoe in the 5.55 at Kilbeggan lads, very rare I back in a race of this sort especially in Ireland but I fancy this to run well. Currently 6/1 in P.P.

Johner

Wasn't a great ride by Murtagh on Educate, got caught on the rails before the stumble.

mailburner

if you made money today well done
I certainly couldnt find them

ste2010

Johner wrote: »

Wasn't a great ride by Murtagh on Educate, got caught on the rails before the stumble.

Very unlucky. Surely would have won..he was waiting for the gap but never appeared

carpothepunk

Johnny Murtagh showing yesterday exactly why he's a proper horseman. treated the horse with the utmost care and respect.