Toronado

Gringo180

Just putting it out there so I can come back to this thread and say I told yous so, but this horse is going to be second only to the mighty Frankel over a mile in the last 10 years I was very impressed with how he absolutely cantered up alongside DA and DOW while they were hard at it, serious animal this is with loads of scope for improvement.

Johner

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iIIuR-HjFho

kiers47

Presumably you mean this side of the Atlantic. As he would probably need to go unbeaten for the rest of this year and next year to come anywhere near a Wise Dan.

Slattsy

Oh sweet Jesus.

Camelot would destroy him over a mile.

UrbanSea

kiers47 wrote: »

Presumably you mean this side of the Atlantic. As he would probably need to go unbeaten for the rest of this year and next year to come anywhere near a Wise Dan.

Excelebration had a higher rating then Wise Dan

Gringo180

Slattsy wrote: »

Oh sweet Jesus.

Camelot would destroy him over a mile.

:pac::pac::pac::D

kiers47

UrbanSea wrote: »

Excelebration had a higher rating then Wise Dan

I tend to use timeform as a better guide to compare horses in different countries(bar the uk and Ireland that is). I think it is a fairer form rating of which wise dan is 1lb ahead of excelebration and candird cliffs. Which I would tend to agree with myself considering the fact that wise dan firmly put excelebration in his place the only time they met.

Colonel Sanders

Mars! Mars! Mars!

UrbanSea

What do they have Wise Dan on

kiers47

UrbanSea wrote: »

What do they have Wise Dan on

134 although the 3 are top class it is all opinion and fairly hard to compare when there is only a lb or 2 in it. I thought excelebration and canford were 133 (from memory) but someone said above he is only 132. Ill have a check later.

longshotvalue

that horse has a very long way to go to get anywhere near excelebration let alone frankel. MY gut feeling is the DA may be the better horse by the end of their careers..

klairondavis

Granduoet would smash him around Wincanton.

tryfix

Based on the last 10 years of International Classifications.


2013 probable ratings Toronado 127, Dawn Approach 126, Farhh 124, Declaration Of War 121.

2012 Frankel 140 Queen Anne, Excelebration 130 QE II, Wise Dan 129 BC mile

2011 Frankel 136 QE II, Canford Cliffs 127 Queen Anne, Excelebration 126 QE II, Goldikova 124 Queen Anne.

2010 Makfi 128 Marois, Canford Cliffs 127 Sussex, Rip Van Winkle 125 Sussex, Goldikova 125 BC mile

2009 Goldikova 130 Marois, Rip Van Winkle 129 Sussex Stakes, Paco Boy 124 Sussex.

2008 Ravens Pass 127 QE II, Henrythenavigator 125 QE 11, Goldikova 125 BC mile.

2007 Ramonti 123 QE II. Excellent Art 122 QE II.

2006 George Washington 127 QE II.

2005. Shamardal 125 St James Palace Stakes.

2004 Rakti 123 QE II.

2003 Hawk Wing 133 Lockinge, Dubai Destination 125 Queen Anne.

meriwether

Hidden Cyclone would murder him over obstacles.

hucklebuck

Gringo180 wrote: »

Just putting it out there so I can come back to this thread and say I told yous so, but this horse is going to be second only to the mighty Frankel over a mile in the last 10 years I was very impressed with how he absolutely cantered up alongside DA and DOW while they were hard at it, serious animal this is with loads of scope for improvement.

Oh my word, they are both very good horses but lets not get carried away, Toronado looks quick but there have been quite good milers in the last few years and a couple of very very smart middle distance horse that would probably beat him over a mile too.

Anyway National Hunt is only a few months away

RichieLawlor

Did the not send mars to mike de Kock yet )

klairondavis

RichieLawlor wrote: »

Did the not send mars to mike de Kock yet )

He's off to Jackdaws. A career in handicap hurdles around Towcester and Plumpton awaits.

Colonel Sanders

klairondavis wrote: »

He's off to Jackdaws. A career in handicap hurdles around Towcester and Plumpton awaits.

I've taken some 33s for the Triumph.

meriwether

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

I've taken some 33s for the Triumph.

I look forward to his run in the 2020 Irish Grand National.

klairondavis

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

I've taken some 33s for the Triumph.

Fred Winter

meriwether

klairondavis wrote: »

Fred Winter

Comes 14th in the Imperial cup.

Barry Geraghty wins it on a JP horse for Nicky.

AP is stonefaced.

UrbanSea

2/1 the pair for the QEII but its ante post. Could still be worth the risk if DA is beaten in a very good looking Marois

tryfix

UrbanSea wrote: »

2/1 the pair for the QEII but its ante post. Could still be worth the risk if DA is beaten in a very good looking Marois

DA will deserve a lot of respect if he's tough enough to go and win the Marois. If he just gets touched off by Intello, then there'll be a serious doubt about who's the best of the 3 and don't rule out a freshened up Magician putting it up to them all in the QE II following his break after his St James flop.

Rated the best two three-year-olds in the world with pre-race ratings of 124 (Dawn Approach) and 123 (Toronado) following their tremendous scrap in the St James’s Palace at Royal Ascot, the pair confirmed those positions but it is now Richard Hannon’s colt who sits on top of the pile with a new mark of 126, whilst Dawn Approach is at his girth with a new mark of 125.

http://www.britishhorseracing.com/goracing/blogs/handicappers.asp

Kinda disappointed with the 126 and 125 ratings for Toronado and DA, but they only rated DOW at 120, even though he had a 121 OR going into the race according to the Racing Post.

tryfix

So an excuse has been found for Toronado's Juddmonte performance and he's to have a breathing operation. Seems like a valid excuse as his run was too bad to be true and I'd expect him to bounce back to form once he's recovered from the OP.

"He displaced his soft palate, just as he did at Newmarket, so we will probably have it cauterised. It only takes two weeks to have that put right so he'll come back in the autumn and go back to a mile at Ascot or in America."

http://www.racingpost.com/news/live.sd?event_id=1091617&category=0

Backstreet Moyes

Meh everytime a good Hannon horse gets beat their's an excuse. Toronado twice now and Canford Cliffs against Frankel.

Gringo180

Nuts102 wrote: »

Meh everytime a good Hannon horse gets beat their's an excuse. Toronado twice now and Canford Cliffs against Frankel.

Well he hardly ran to form now did he so obviously something was amiss with him yesterday.

Harry Angstrom

Don't know what they were doing running him at York in the first place.

RichieLawlor

It's possible the 3 year olds are all just brutal.

Declaration of War has smashed them, The Fugue has smashed them, Moonlighy Cloud has smashed them, Ruler of the world was smashed by Trading leather who in turn looked at Novellists rear. Some dog won the Oaks.

Toronado was mentioned in the same sentence as Frankel in the opening post in this thread. I think we would all agree he wouldn't beat Frankel with a furlong head start

kfallon

The 3yo's are shít, the older horses are shít and the 2yo's so far look fairly shít too!

Worst Flat season I can ever remember

Gringo180

RichieLawlor wrote: »

It's possible the 3 year olds are all just brutal.

Declaration of War has smashed them, The Fugue has smashed them, Moonlighy Cloud has smashed them, Ruler of the world was smashed by Trading leather who in turn looked at Novellists rear. Some dog won the Oaks.

Toronado was mentioned in the same sentence as Frankel in the opening post in this thread. I think we would all agree he wouldn't beat Frankel with a furlong head start

Did Toronado not smash DOW in the Sussex stakes when he ran to form?

hucklebuck

Gringo180 wrote: »

Did Toronado not smash DOW in the Sussex stakes when he ran to form?

Is that ran to form or posted his best run by quite a way

tryfix

The 3 year old's are not sh1t, they're inconsistent just like last years bunch were. In the Race where Moonlight Cloud at the top of her game just beat a second tier 3 year old in Olympic Glory, DOW was beaten by 2 3yo's, Elusive Kate and Aljamaheer were even beaten by the flopping Dawn Approach and his Pacemaker in the same race.


Leitir Mor beaten 8 1/4l by Moonlight Cloud at Deauville has been beaten by 13 1/2l by Toronado, and 12 1/2l by Dawn Aproach twice this season. Given that Excelebration could only beat Moonlight Cloud by 1 3/4L in this race last year with Elusive Kate only beaten a neck less with Casper Netcher only a neck further behind, then Toronado and Dawn Approach were equally as good and are probably better than Excelebration on their going days.

Even the good but not spectacular 1m 4f 3 yo Trading Leather was able to finish ahead of the superstar older Al Kazeem in the Juddmonte.


So no, the 3yo's are not sh1t, they're just misunderstood.:)


.

kfallon

tryfix wrote: »

The 3 year old's are not sh1t, they're inconsistent just like last years bunch were. In the Race where Moonlight Cloud at the top of her game just beat a second tier 3 year old in Olympic Glory, DOW was beaten by 2 3yo's, Elusive Kate and Aljamaheer were even beaten by the flopping Dawn Approach and his Pacemaker in the same race.


Leitir Mor beaten 8 1/4l by Moonlight Cloud at Deauville has been beaten by 13 1/2l by Toronado, and 12 1/2l by Dawn Aproach twice this season. Given that Excelebration could only beat Moonlight Cloud by 1 3/4L in this race last year with Elusive Kate only beaten a neck less with Casper Netcher only a neck further behind, then Toronado and Dawn Approach were equally as good and are probably better than Excelebration on their going days.

Even the good but not spectacular 1m 4f 3 yo Trading Leather was able to finish ahead of the superstar older Al Kazeem in the Juddmonte.


So no, the 3yo's are not sh1t, they're just misunderstood.:)


.

The words 'Superstar' and 'Al Kazeem' should never, ever go together! In a normal year he would be no more than a decent G2 horse! The only decent older horses around this season are now retired, St Nic and Snow Fairy.

And you can say misunderstood, I will say shít, none of them will go down as a great horse. As I said, terrible older horses, bad 3yo's, awful season.

Novellist the best of the lot but he's only been seen in UK once

longshotvalue

tryfix wrote: »

The 3 year old's are not sh1t, they're inconsistent just like last years bunch were. In the Race where Moonlight Cloud at the top of her game just beat a second tier 3 year old in Olympic Glory, DOW was beaten by 2 3yo's, Elusive Kate and Aljamaheer were even beaten by the flopping Dawn Approach and his Pacemaker in the same race.


Leitir Mor beaten 8 1/4l by Moonlight Cloud at Deauville has been beaten by 13 1/2l by Toronado, and 12 1/2l by Dawn Aproach twice this season. Given that Excelebration could only beat Moonlight Cloud by 1 3/4L in this race last year with Elusive Kate only beaten a neck less with Casper Netcher only a neck further behind, then Toronado and Dawn Approach were equally as good and are probably better than Excelebration on their going days.:eek::eek:

Even the good but not spectacular 1m 4f 3 yo Trading Leather was able to finish ahead of the superstar older Al Kazeem in the Juddmonte.


So no, the 3yo's are not sh1t, they're just misunderstood.:)


.

:eek:

Johner

Canford Cliffs > Toronado.

diomed

Gringo180 wrote: »

Well he hardly ran to form now did he so obviously something was amiss with him yesterday.

What was wrong with him was he was running over a longer distance, an extra 2f 88y.

tryfix

kfallon wrote: »

The words 'Superstar' and 'Al Kazeem' should never, ever go together! In a normal year he would be no more than a decent G2 horse! The only decent older horses around this season are now retired, St Nic and Snow Fairy.

And you can say misunderstood, I will say shít, none of them will go down as a great horse. As I said, terrible older horses, bad 3yo's, awful season.

Novellist the best of the lot but he's only been seen in UK once

aidankkk wrote: »

:eek:

I was using artistic licence.:D

Seriously though, DA and Toronado are equally as good if not better milers than Excelebration was, take out his very soft ground win over an ageing Cityscape at Ascot and he's a 125/126 miler. Even taking that Ascot win and analysing it, he beat 111 rated Sovereign Debt by 7 1/4l or 14 1/2 lb giving him a 125/126 rating. Yet he received a silly 129/130 rating for winning that race. DOW nowhere near the height of his powers beat an improving 4yo Sovereign Debt 6 1/2l in the Queen Anne, an improved DOW only got to within 3L of Toronado in the Sussex.

There was an awful lot of stupid grade inflation going on last year to boost Frankel's status.

kfallon

tryfix wrote: »

There was an awful lot of stupid grade inflation going on last year to boost Frankel's status.

Would definitely agree with that!

If Frankel was trained in Ireland, what do you think his rating would have been?

RichieLawlor

tryfix wrote: »

There was an awful lot of stupid grade inflation going on last year to boost Frankel's status.

Frankels rating never reflected his superiority to be fair, if Excelebration was 132 then Frankel was off the charts. Remember we have no idea how good Frankel actually was.

RichieLawlor

kfallon wrote: »

Would definitely agree with that!

If Frankel was trained in Ireland, what do you think his rating would have been?

Sea the Stars was trained in Ireland, and not at Ballydoyle and he got a huge rating. Your point is bollocks. It's clear to see Frankel was better than him

hawkeyethenoo

frankel was a freak, a machine! hes a one off even a ****e jockey like queally couldn't **** that one up, barry connell wouldnt have even been able to get frankel beaten! i remember before camelot ran in the ledger i had a friend telling me he would beat frankel over 1m 2! haha

tryfix

kfallon wrote: »

Would definitely agree with that!

If Frankel was trained in Ireland, what do you think his rating would have been?

137, he was an ultra consistent 135 horse reeling off seven 135ish performances in a row, he could have reasonably been given an extra few pounds for style, but that 5lbs extra pushing him to the greatest ever territory once they'd marked down Dancing Brave wasn't justified.

They started pushing his rating up when they put him on 138 for beating Excelebration 126 by 5l in the Lockinge. That was only a 136 maximum performance and probably less because Excelebration ran out of puff trying to keep up with him, and Dubawi Gold 117( beaten 9l )and Bullet Train 106 ( beaten 12l ) were given 18lb and 24lb beatings that day , giving Frankel a 135 and 130 performance based on those runners.

Before that race Dubawi Gold had been beaten 18L by penitent in a Gp2 and 8 3/4l by Master Of The Hounds in a Gp 1. Are we to believe that Frankel's pacemaker Bullet Train ( 106 ) improve by 8lb that day and that Dubawi Gold who never raced again ran 3lb above his best ever previous performances despite flopping on his two previous runs? Don't think that's a remotely credible conclusion.


His mega 140 rating came in a soft ground performance where Excelebration beaten 11l cracked under the strain of trying to keep up with him and flopped, Side Glance 113 beaten 11 1/2l or 23lb that day puts that performance of Frankel's at a possible max 136, but the very moderate German horse Indominito 108 was only 1l further back, putting Frankel's performance at 133. Indominito's 108 rating was a guesstimate because the handicapper wasn't sure of his German form, yet he was raised to 112 for his thrashing in the Queen Anne, his next race saw him beaten by 10l by Excelebration 125/126 showing that he was indeed a 105/106 horse putting Frankel's 12 1/l beating of him at 131/132.


Wide margin wins on soft ground have to be taken with a pinch of salt and they should never be used to boost the winners rating by also inflating horses beaten 10 and 12l just to suit an agenda, it's just not right.

kfallon

RichieLawlor wrote: »

Sea the Stars was trained in Ireland, and not at Ballydoyle and he got a huge rating. Your point is bollocks. It's clear to see Frankel was better than him

What point am I making and where did I even mention Sea The Stars?

Seems like you are talking bollocks tbh!

walrusgumble

tryfix wrote: »

The 3 year old's are not sh1t, they're inconsistent just like last years bunch were. In the Race where Moonlight Cloud at the top of her game just beat a second tier 3 year old in Olympic Glory, DOW was beaten by 2 3yo's, Elusive Kate and Aljamaheer were even beaten by the flopping Dawn Approach and his Pacemaker in the same race.


Leitir Mor beaten 8 1/4l by Moonlight Cloud at Deauville has been beaten by 13 1/2l by Toronado, and 12 1/2l by Dawn Aproach twice this season. Given that Excelebration could only beat Moonlight Cloud by 1 3/4L in this race last year with Elusive Kate only beaten a neck less with Casper Netcher only a neck further behind, then Toronado and Dawn Approach were equally as good and are probably better than Excelebration on their going days.

Even the good but not spectacular 1m 4f 3 yo Trading Leather was able to finish ahead of the superstar older Al Kazeem in the Juddmonte.


So no, the 3yo's are not sh1t, they're just misunderstood.:)


.

They are getting too bloody expensive to back!

Felt sorry for Sky Lantern when she lost to Elusive Kate (though I backed EK).

I fear that Trading Leather will screw up a race that he is favourite in, when races against his own age and more craper older horses (I really am not fond of Kevin Manning, though he can't be faulted for the rides)

Where is Reckless Abandon? Injured in Ascot?

Maybe Leitir Mor is not a G1 horse, but turfing him into G1 races every 2 weeks and expecting him to be fodder for DA or others, is unfair to the horse .

Dawn Approach has being great this season, regardless of what people might think. His only really bad race was Epsom, which he should NEVER have been put in to. As for France, why did Bolger bother? he couldn't have been expected to run that well after such a short period of time. Goodwood, he could or should have won, but fair due to Hughes on Torondo. He needs a rest .


My latest tip is that, if a horse is all over the front of Racing Post at the Weekend (eg Sky Lantern at Goodwood, Declaration of War earlier in the year at Newbury or Newmarket, Al Kazeem in Yor) stay the hell away from it. RP can be a blight

ziggy

This post has been deleted.

diomed

Good post tryfix. There was a bit of Frankel mania about. Will there be a rush to re-assess him now that Cirrus des Aigles has flopped again and again and again?

tryfix

diomed wrote: »

Good post tryfix. There was a bit of Frankel mania about. Will there be a rush to re-assess him now that Cirrus des Aigles has flopped again and again and again?

I doubt it, it would be sacrilegious in light of Henry Cecil’s death. Maybe in a decade and it’s arguable that he deserved a few pounds extra for his extraordinary consistency. What really gets on my goat is the inflation of the beaten horses to justify it. If you're giving him marks for what you think he had in the locker fair enough, IMO he was pushed out to the limit in all his races bar his 2012 Sussex win where he was eased up and didn't run to his mark.

He didn't earn his 140 rating for his beating of Cirrus Des Aigles in the Champion Stakes. He earned it for both his Queen Anne win and Juddmonte win. I think Cirrus probably ran near to his 130 OR that day in the Champion, maybe 128 at worst, his drop off in form this year is down to his age and the old drug test failure. I’ve sworn off trusting 6 yo and older horses being able to produce their form in the top races. Got burned by Cityscape early in the year and learned my lesson.

His Juddmonte win might actually be his best performance, he beat Farhh by 7l ( 122 ) 12.25lb, St Nicholas Abbey ( 124 ) 12.25lb and Bullet Train ( 108 ) by 13 1/2l. 23.6lb. Giving possible ratings of 134/135, 136/137 and 131/132.

His Champion Stakes win he beat Cirrus 1 3/4l ( 130 ) 3lb Nathaniel ( 126 ) by 4 1/4l 7.5lb, Master Of The Hound ( 115 ) 12l 21lb and Bullet Train ( 113 )? 14 1/2l 25.3lb. Giving him 133, 133/134, 136, 138.

He should really be assessed by the weakest link in each of his races and then cross referenced to the others. St Nicholas Abbey wasn’t great at 10f, it’s accepted that 12f brought out the best in him, so his 12f rating of 124 shouldn’t have been used as a benchmark to judge Frankel’s rating at 10f and then adding another 3-4lbs as well. It isn't remotely credible that St Nicholas Abbey could have produced a performance nearing 127 over 10f when 124 over his favourite 12f trip was as good as he ever was.