Labour Party Beginning to Crumble?

Sierra Oscar

This week hasnt been a good one for the Labour party. The organization has suffered a setback after three high profile representatives exited the party.

First came Nessa Childers who announced that she is resigning her membership of Labour, and will run as an independent in the next European elections. This move in itself could ensure that Labour return no MEP in the Eastern constituency in just a little under twelve months time.

Then came Jenny McHugh who announced that she was defecting to Fianna Fáil . You know things must not be going all that well when Labour representatives start moving to FF. McHugh narrowly missed out on a Dáil seat in Meath West in GE11, and Labour do not seem to even have another perspective candidate in the constituency.

Then came the resignation of Cian O'Callaghan towards the end of the week. He left with a bang, and criticized the party leadership by claiming the party no longer had any backbone. This resignation in particular will set alarm bells ringing. O'Callaghan was seen as a rising star in the party. When you have the likes of O'Callaghan abandoning ship it really highlights the poor electoral prospects that Labour are now facing.

However these resignations are merely the tip of the iceberg. Labour have now lost 20 councillors, 5 TD's, 1 Senator and 1 MEP. That is nearly 10% of their councillors and over 20% of their parliamentary party. Róisín Shortall has also indicated that she is considering resigning from the party. Her departure would see the collapse of the Labour organization in Dublin North West. With a tough budget in store before the locals we should probably be expecting more resignations.

In the middle of all of this the Labour party is suffering serious setbacks at an individual membership level, and combined with the resignations of elected representatives the organization is suffering.

So what can the Labour party do to address its decline? Are they better off trying to weather the storm, or is a serious shaking up needed at a leadership level? One thing is for sure - the party cannot continue without taking any action to address the decline of its organization. If it fails to address the these issues the party is likely heading for a dark future.

RichardAnd

Well I know of one guy who is an ardent socialist and who flew the Labour flag all his lift. He was a member of the Labour party but he has since left it in disgust. He's still a socialist but he considers Labour, as it stands, to be contrary to a socialist party. I doubt that he's the only one.

Manach

Playing devil's advocate, the Labour Party does have strong roots in the community and as an institution has generationally loyal party workers. For it to be weaken significantly, disaffected members would need a receptive home to migrate to, which for instance in SF's case might not prove conducive due to their 32 county set-up, split between South and North.

Jawgap

I'm not sure if they are beginning to crumble - as in, I think the core is still solid and will remain so.

I think they are losing (if they haven't already lost) all the floating, casual voters they picked up last time around.

I also expect more defections / departures as we get closer to the local and Europeans next year - but I think the other question will be who will go out and canvass for them? And how will they fund their campaigns?

I can't see too many volunteers wanting to spend their evenings listening to disgruntled voters, or too many wanting to donate.

spank_inferno

Is it fair to say that some of these 'defections' are just down to the individuals self-preservation? Rather than genuine ideological reasons.

The meath councillor & Nessa Childers stink of self preservation, eager to stay on the gravy train.

The young male councilor left to persue a career.

Shortall's departure was down to a HR issue with her senior ministor more than anything else.

The numbers are stark... But he departure of the waverers when things get tough is no reason to panic.

Tabnabs

spank_inferno wrote: »

The numbers are stark... But he departure of the waverers when things get tough is no reason to panic.

Labour voters do tend to be lifers in the main, so many of the marginal and floating voters will likely abandon them in the next general election.

At the half way mark, this graph is cause for concern if not outright panic

Smash The House

You have to remember too that Labour almost doubled their seats in the last election, primarily because voters (particularly voters in the East), didn't want to vote Fianna Fail, but didn't want to be a blueshirt or didn't want Inda, and so voted Labour.

All the unkept election promises and the realization that Labour is no different to the others is turning people off them now, which would explain why Sinn Fein are gaining in popularity.
However, as we all now, Sinn Fein are just complete idiots and their policy is pretty much to say no to everything the government suggests. Even their reversal on their stance on the abolition of the Seanad is a complete joke. I've met several of Sinn Fein Councillors and TD's and none of them are fit to be in government. It'll probably be after they are elected though that people will realise :P

Banjo String

Another one bites the dust.

I'm doubting they (labour) will go the full term of govt. Eamon and Co might regret selling out their electorate.

Fine Fail, Fine Gale, Fine Labour.

bmaxi

I'm not sure about the core membership. My local Labour Councillor, a tireless worker for the community who has no ambition to be a TD, is despairing of the performance of the party in Government. He too is considering resigning from the party and running as an Independent, not because of fears for his voter base, which I'd say is fairly secure, but because he sees every principle Labour was founded on being undermined and compromised.
Labour in Ireland has followed the pattern of New Labour in the UK, ditching their socialist identity for expediency. The Sinners will be lapping it up.

OCorcrainn

Smash The House wrote: »

However, as we all now, Sinn Fein are just complete idiots and their policy is pretty much to say no to everything the government suggests. Even their reversal on their stance on the abolition of the Seanad is a complete joke.

So you say all Sinn Féin do is oppose everything that the government suggests and yet they support the government position on abolishing the Seanad and creating a new better one but you call it a joke then. The idiotic rationale that you have does not belong in an intelligent discussion.:rolleyes:

I've met several of Sinn Fein Councillors and TD's and none of them are fit to be in government. It'll probably be after they are elected though that people will realise :P

Funny you say that, in the Dáil alone since 1961, only one Sinn Féin TD who was elected failed to be re-elected, and in the next election he won back his seat, which speaks volumes about the candidates and their abilities and respect the constituents hold for them. No other political party in Ireland can claim the same, yet there you are spouting your hysterical anti-SF rubbish when all evidence and facts contradict you.:rolleyes:

So whose re-reg are you?

Smash The House

OCorcrainn wrote: »

So you say all Sinn Féin do is oppose everything that the government suggests and yet they support the government position on abolishing the Seanad and creating a new better one but you call it a joke then. The idiotic rationale that you have does not belong in an intelligent discussion.:rolleyes:

The point I'm making is that is like is pre-programmed into a Sinn Fein politician to just oppose everything the government does; because since they have never been in government, they know that they will be elected because there are people who also oppose everything that every government does. The recent Sinn Fein stance on the seanad in my opinion shows that they recognise that Labour could fall out with FG any day and so they have a chance at once at getting into government.

Irish Examiner wrote:

The majority of Fine Gael senators and all of Labour’s representatives in the upper house said during the week that they intend to vote against the Government’s plans to abolish the Seanad in the referendum.

However, Sinn Féin senators said yesterday that they would stick by their party’s position and vote yes.

I'm sorry, but that behaviour is just farcical.

Funny you say that, in the Dáil alone since 1961, only one Sinn Féin TD who was elected failed to be re-elected, and in the next election he won back his seat, which speaks volumes about the candidates and their abilities and respect the constituents hold for them. No other political party in Ireland can claim the same, yet there you are spouting your hysterical anti-SF rubbish when all evidence and facts contradict you.:rolleyes:

So whose re-reg are you?

Wow, Sinn Fein sound like a wonder party.
From when the Workers Party split in 1982 to 1997 though, Sinn Fein had no seats at all in the dail, and even up to 2007 the most they had ever held was 5.
Let's see how many of the current 14 will get continually re-elected...

Am Chile

I think people in labour know its a sinking ship at the moment - when you betray your core working class vote as labour as done there is going to be electoral consquences for doing so- pre election both eamon gilmore and brendan howlin saying labour wouldnt support water charges gilmore said something along the lines that water should continue to be a public service- the broken promises not to increase student fees and cut child benefit-at next years euro and local elections Im predicting labours vote will hit rock bottom.

jank

Labour over promised and are now suffering for it. Like the FF party before them the rats are fleeing the sinking ship. The only irony here are the rats are jumping on board the ship that caused this mess in the first place. Labour are and have never been a party of the working class. They are full of the well-meaning champagne socialist type like Joan Burton. Never mind that most of them started off their political careers as pseudo communists, but hey thats all OK now I suppose.

What this country needs more than ever is a FG lead government or if not that then FG and FF in a coalition. The left can whinge into their prawn sandwichs for all I care.

Jawgap

I think a lot of casual voters went for Labour the last time because they wanted someone in there to rein back the worst tendencies of FG.

In that regard they've only been partially successful or they've significantly failed depending on your point of view.

Gilmore's de facto abdication to take the post of Minister of Foreign Affairs was a significant tactical mistake - great for Eamo, not so much for the rest of the party, or the country.

The absolute last thing the country needs is a majority FG government - I doubt very much it will happen. They'll get clobbered a bit in the next election but I think by and large they'll wake up thanking their stars that they are not Labour.

Have to admit, if Martin gives an unequivocal guarantee that he won't go into coalition with the Shinners, I'd probably be good for a high preference vote to my local FF candidate. I can't see FF going into coalition with FG.

alastair

Am Chile wrote: »

I think people in labour know its a sinking ship at the moment - when you betray your core working class vote as labour as done there is going to be electoral consquences for doing so- pre election both eamon gilmore and brendan howlin saying labour wouldnt support water charges gilmore said something along the lines that water should continue to be a public service- the broken promises not to increase student fees and cut child benefit-at next years euro and local elections Im predicting labours vote will hit rock bottom.

Labour have been through all this before. If it's a sinking ship, it's one that bobs up again after they've been given an electoral spanking.

Sierra Oscar

It wouldn't surprise me if we saw Gilmore move to a more domestic ministerial portfolio in advance of the local elections. In my view Labour also really need to move the likes of Rabbitte and Quinn from cabinet and bring in some of the young guns from the parliamentary party.

Although at times I get the feeling that the 'old guard' in Labour are not too worried about their electoral prospects in the future, as many of them wont run again.

alastair wrote: »

Labour have been through all this before. If it's a sinking ship, it's one that bobs up again after they've been given an electoral spanking.

I'm not so sure if it is wise to go on past trends. For one the whole scenario is much different this time as compared to the 90's as Sinn Féin are in opposition appealing to the far left Labour voters while Fianna Fáil are picking away at the more middle class vote.

Don't rule out SF taking the place of the Labour party in Irish politics.

bmaxi

I think it's a whole different scenario this time, Labour's sins are much less venial. In the past they were sins of omission, this time it's sins of commission. No matter what is put up as justification, recession, bail out, etc. you still have the spectacle of Labour ministers wielding the axe on hard pressed workers, while those better off suffer less in comparison, the latest of course being Rabbitte's de facto removal of the free TV licence from OAPs.
The party's boast of "no cuts to core social welfare payments' rings hollow, the removal of these allowances is a cut to core payments. It's ironic that the Minister responsible is a former Shinner and Communist, hardly an expected CV for a loyal client of Doheny and Nesbitts, poacher turned gamekeeper is more like it. I agree, Gilmore, Quinn and Rabbitte, plus maybe Howlin, will most likely ride off into the sunset with their fat pensions at the next GE, much like Dempsey, Harney & co did last time out, leaving their party in ruins.