What was the name of that US weather guru?

Prettyblack

Back at the start of the year I had read a post stating that some US weather guru was predicting a scorcher of a summer in Ireland this year.

Anyone know his name? I'm going to be following all his predictions I reckon! :-)

maquiladora

Joe Bastardi?

I'm not aware of any his forecasts for Ireland though.

Prettyblack

maquiladora wrote: »

Joe Bastardi?

I'm not aware of any his forecasts for Ireland though.

Possibly. Unfortunate name.

Ash.J.Williams

thought it was a New Zealander meself

Sierra Oscar

maquiladora wrote: »

Joe Bastardi?

I'm not aware of any his forecasts for Ireland though.

I think he made a very generalized US / Europe forecasts at some stage last year! I seem to remember reading a thread on it here at the time.

Ash.J.Williams

http://tnt24.ie/index.php/2013/07/new-zealand-weather-wizard-predicts-irish-heatwave-will-last-into-september/21248/

Prettyblack

Could've been alright, it was a guy who said it at the start of the year, when it was cold and wintery and seemed almost laughable at the time.

MiNdGaM3

Has anyone got a link to Ken's original prediction back in the beginning of the year?

Lumi

MiNdGaM3 wrote: »

Has anyone got a link to Ken's original prediction back in the beginning of the year?

This ones dated Jan 2, 2013 http://www.independent.ie/weather/weather-guru-ken-ring-says-were-in-for-a-summer-scorcher-28953806.html

And a radio interview on Jan 9th

Prettyblack

That was it! Thanks!

MiNdGaM3

Lumi wrote: »

This ones dated Jan 2, 2013 http://www.independent.ie/weather/weather-guru-ken-ring-says-were-in-for-a-summer-scorcher-28953806.html

And a radio interview on Jan 9th

Cheers, though I wouldn't mind seeing what he said himself, but, based of the newspaper article...

Seems his predictions before summer were generally off. His times for the best sunny breaks in Ireland weren't the best periods of the Spring and early Summer.
His prediction for a wet Spring and Winter were wrong too, with rainfall amounts closer average or slightly below. On the radio interview, he suggested the first signs of summer in the middle 2 weeks of April... I think that turned out to be the opposite! He also predicted mid May to be good with temperatures in the 20s (wrong) and missed the 2 week good spell at the end of May and early July.

He did get the good weather at the start of this month correct, though based on how far off his Spring and Winter stuff was, I wouldn't attribute any of that to skill.

Lumi

MiNdGaM3 wrote: »

Cheers, though I wouldn't mind seeing what he said himself

It's available here but his Weather Almanac for Ireland 2013 will set you back a hefty €31 + 16 p&p
He also talks about his ahem 'accurate' summer 2013 predictions here

Cheerful Spring

MiNdGaM3 wrote: »

Cheers, though I wouldn't mind seeing what he said himself, but, based of the newspaper article...

Seems his predictions before summer were generally off. His times for the best sunny breaks in Ireland weren't the best periods of the Spring and early Summer.
His prediction for a wet Spring and Winter were wrong too, with rainfall amounts closer average or slightly below. On the radio interview, he suggested the first signs of summer in the middle 2 weeks of April... I think that turned out to be the opposite! He also predicted mid May to be good with temperatures in the 20s (wrong) and missed the 2 week good spell at the end of May and early July.

He did get the good weather at the start of this month correct, though based on how far off his Spring and Winter stuff was, I wouldn't attribute any of that to skill.

Signs of summer just means an outbreak of sun here and there!

Not sure what interview you heard. But, Ken ring said our heatwave would start around the 8th and 9th of July.

Hes prediction of Jan 2013 was spot on, this is why people are more open to his ways of predicting the weather.

MiNdGaM3

Cheerful Spring wrote: »

Signs of summer just means an outbreak of sun here and there!

Not sure what interview you heard. But, Ken ring said our heatwave would start around the 8th and 9th of July.

Hes prediction of Jan 2013 was spot on, this is why people are more open to his ways of predicting the weather.

Outbreaks of sun is meaningless, like saying a mixture of sunlight and darkness, it happens every week of the year!
Signs of summer, would indicate warmth with the sun, which certainly wasn't the case in April.

The interview, kindly linked to by Lumi, said temperatures in the 20s in mid May. According the Met Eireann, the warmest temperature in May was 20.4C, in Dublin, at the end of the month.

I'd give him a 10-15% hit rate so far this year, and the only thing I can tell that Ken really stuck his neck out with and got right was the last few days.

Gumbi

Has it occurred to anyone that he is making generalised, variably-interpretable "predictions" and that you are filling in the blanks?

MiNdGaM3

Gumbi wrote: »

Has it occurred to anyone that he is making generalised, variably-interpretable "predictions" and that you are filling in the blanks?

It seems a mixture of that (like cold reading nonsense) and some actual predictions.
I think he's mainly relying on the selective memory of his customers/fans. He's gotten most of this year wrong, but many people will only remember his early July prediction.