The Big Poll Thread

nesf

People asked for one place to have the polls and debate them so here it is. The Milward Brown poll results were released today:

Details: http://www.rte.ie/news/2013/0706/460961-ff-support-up-fg-lab-down-opinion-poll/

FF: 29% (+2)
FG: 26% (-1)
LAB: 8% (-3)
SF: 19% (+2)
Ind: 19% (+1)

Undecided: 34%

Remember the above numbers exclude the undecided voters.

FF lead though really with this undecided number you couldn't even consider calling it. Labour are being hit much harder than FG, which is the norm with coalitions in Ireland. SF are doing well but I wonder if they're close to their current ceiling and I'm not sure how much of a seat gain this will be for them if this extra support is spread too thinly across constituencies where they can't viably take a seat. Independents are doing well though I'd expect that number to shrink most when the undecideds start to weigh in.

Interesting times, though personally I think the polls mean so little with a 34% undecided number.

Eggy Baby!

Bloody hell that's a lot of undecided people. Can't blame them though.

Depressing reading.

Manach

Deleted User wrote: »

Depressing reading.

True, Labour still has 8% support.

Red Crow

I'm undecided. Not interested in putting FF back in. Fine Gael and Labour aren't making the right moves IMO and SF just aren't walking the walk for me.

We need new parties. A new direction.

Sierra Oscar

Labour heading for a disastrous local elections campaign, and there is still a tough budget to go between now and then.

Sir Humphrey Appleby

Eli Manning wrote: »

I'm undecided. Not interested in putting FF back in. Fine Gael and Labour aren't making the right moves IMO and SF just aren't walking the walk for me.

We need new parties. A new direction.

Ypur post seems to indicate that neither the left,the right, nor the centre appeal to you, so what direction would you like?

bgrizzley

Manach wrote: »

True, Labour still has 8% support.

Divide by 100 and multiply by 66 to get a true indication of their current support (without the undecided added (if i understand correctly!))
That'll cheer you up!

5.28%

Colonel Sanders

The undecided number is huge & has already been stated makes any call pretty difficult if not impossible.

Riddle101

This country I tell you. People love to forget the past don't they? People just never learn.

Noreen1

I'm firmly in the "undecided" camp.

I don't trust either FF, or FG/Labour. (I'm sick of being told lies!)

SF, as a party, are too far left for my personal taste, though I find myself agreeing with some of what they say.

They are also too socially liberal for my taste, as is my local Independent candidate. (Yes, it's the abortion issue!:P).

It actually looks as if there will be no-one that I can vote for! It's downright depressing!

nuac

I think Red C are more reliable. They have been taking regular polls for longer than other companies.

About "undecideds". Many of those will not vote for all sorts of reasons

nesf

nuac wrote: »

About "undecideds". Many of those will not vote for all sorts of reasons

Yes, the stay-at-home vote could be significant. Those who won't vote FG/Lab again but cannot bring themselves to vote either FF or SF.

the groutch

Some big shifts in the latest Spindo/Millward Brown poll

FG: 27% (-3)
SF: 22% (+6)
FF: 21% (-5)
LAB: 8% (-4)
OTHERS: 21% (+6)

http://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/new-poll-shows-gains-for-sf-but-fine-gael-support-slips-623953.html

Happyman42

Pushing Mary Lou into prominence is starting to show dividends.

Manach

One can only image if Labour placed Joan Burton in the same type of role ...

nesf

the groutch wrote: »

Some big shifts in the latest Spindo/Millward Brown poll

FG: 27% (-3)
SF: 22% (+6)
FF: 21% (-5)
LAB: 8% (-4)
OTHERS: 21% (+6)

http://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/new-poll-shows-gains-for-sf-but-fine-gael-support-slips-623953.html

Until we get number of undecideds, (probably tomorrow in the Sindo) I won't be thinking much of those numbers. If the number is still really high we're still looking at numbers that could be way, way out if you called a snap election next week.

K-9

nesf wrote: »

Until we get number of undecideds, (probably tomorrow in the Sindo) I won't be thinking much of those numbers. If the number is still really high we're still looking at numbers that could be way, way out if you called a snap election next week.

Would be hard to predict how many seats each party would get if the results ended up close to that. Forming a Government could prove impossible based on those figures!

Godge

K-9 wrote: »

Would be hard to predict how many seats each party would get if the results ended up close to that. Forming a Government could prove impossible based on those figures!

Up until now, opinion polls with 1000 people polled nationally to get a result, the polling companies have been confident that they can predict the outcome of any election.

However, while I am not a statistician, increased volatility, increased choice and increased regional differences (there is definitely a Dublin/rural divide, possibly one or two more), probably mean that an accurate opinion poll now needs more than 1,000 respondents.

nesf

Godge wrote: »

Up until now, opinion polls with 1000 people polled nationally to get a result, the polling companies have been confident that they can predict the outcome of any election.

However, while I am not a statistician, increased volatility, increased choice and increased regional differences (there is definitely a Dublin/rural divide, possibly one or two more), probably mean that an accurate opinion poll now needs more than 1,000 respondents.

I think you're looking at this the wrong way. We're far from an election, people aren't really thinking of the election math when they're answering "who would you vote for tomorrow." Closer to the election where each party's popularity is more certain in the public mind we'll get much more interesting numbers as the floating vote shifts around towards forming some kind of Government.

Godge

nesf wrote: »

I think you're looking at this the wrong way. We're far from an election, people aren't really thinking of the election math when they're answering "who would you vote for tomorrow." Closer to the election where each party's popularity is more certain in the public mind we'll get much more interesting numbers as the floating vote shifts around towards forming some kind of Government.

Fair enough, but even the last election campaign showed considerable volatility and the polls were not as accurate.

Granted there were some new companies polling.

nesf

Godge wrote: »

Fair enough, but even the last election campaign showed considerable volatility and the polls were not as accurate.

Granted there were some new companies polling.

Well, if the underlying vote is volatile then it doesn't matter how big your poll is, it'll give a different answer in two weeks time no? The statistics are trying to discover the current view as accurately as possible without talking to everyone. If the current view itself is unstable (as it was last time) then it doesn't really matter what kind of statistics you use to measure it, you won't get rid of this inherent instability. At best this instability can be explained away as say a move away from FF and this dramatically increasing the number of "floating" voters looking for a home over a normal election perhaps combined with some kind of trend seeking analysis but really it's educated guesswork at best if there is a lot of instability in the sample.