Dan Martin : King of Mountains?

pelevin

Just wondering if people reckon Dan Martin will have any interest in targeting the King of Mountains jersey in the Tour. Ladbrokes at 33/1 looks superficially interesting so any ideas?

tawfeeredux

I suspect he's aiming for a top ten on GC, with the KOM jersey a secondary objective if the GC aspirations go pear-shaped early on.

Craig06

Yeah I would say Martin will still be a GC threat as there's teams like Europcar will target KOM again.

Chips Lovell

Winning the KOM usually requires getting into a few breaks and hoovering up the points on every climb of the day. If you're up on the GC, you won't be let away. It does happen though at times, the last person to get a high GC position and win the KOM was Sanchez, only two years ago. To achieve that combo usually means taking lots of points on the big climbs at stage finishes.

Like tawfeeredux, I reckon that given his form this year, Martin will initially target a high GC position and a stage win and KOM will be a secondary objective if he loses time.

catweazle

I was thinking of an outside bet for a top ten finish and Dan might fit the bill, I assumed he would be riding for Hesedjal though

Although this article has a different slant on it and the bookies odds that I checked are slightly leaning towards martin being team leader or at least the two of them being protected riders

http://www1.skysports.com/cycling/news/15264/8792515/Tour-de-France-Irishman-Dan-Martin-could-be-named-Garmin-Sharp-team-leader

pelevin

Thanks lads, just put a few ( a very few) euros on him just on the attractiveness of the odds but accepting that it's not really likely he'll be targeting it.
Went a bit braver on Sagan at evens for the Points jersey. Suspect the Green might be the most interesting contest in the Tour.

Captain Havoc

Stick a bet on DM to keep it interesting, he's 80/1 (66/1 without Froome) for GC or 9/4 for top ten. I'll stick a euro e/w without Froome for the craic. I'll throw a euro e/w for the KOM at 18/1 also.

Vélo

What are the chances of Nicolas Roche to win a stage. I see Paddy Power have him at 6/1.

He might have improved now with a better team and he might be eating more than pasta.

BQQ

Vélo wrote: »

What are the chances of Nicolas Roche to win a stage. I see Paddy Power have him at 6/1.

He might have improved now with a better team and he might be eating more than pasta.

Unlikely.
He'll be told to save his legs for doing Donkey-work for Contador.

He might be let have a go on a stage with a short climb just before the finish, but i'd be wanting more than 6/1.

gordongekko

Dan is 2/1 to win a stage or its evens for an Irish stage winner.

pelevin

gordongekko wrote: »

Dan is 2/1 to win a stage or its evens for an Irish stage winner.

Dan at 2/1 sounds like it makes a hell of a lot more sense than the Irish winner bet at evens.

Morrisseeee

I'd be thinking he'd get alot more kudos if he's on the podium in Paris wearing the polka-dot jersey than say finishing 9th on GC and not getting a stage win. He'd also be the 1st Irish man to do it.
But to go for the KOM he has to signal his intentions early that he's not a GC man.

D3PO

JV today has when they confirmed their squad that Talansky, Dan and Ryder will all initially target GC and be protected and they will roll with a strategy based on whose going well so KOM is off the table Id say unless he goes badly early on which hopefully is not the case.

Brian?

There was a time when the KOM would always have been in the top 5-10 on GC. I'm trying to remember when that changed and why. I'm struggling.

Was Virenque the last one to challenge on GC and win the KOM.

Chips Lovell

Brian? wrote: »

Was Virenque the last one to challenge on GC and win the KOM.

Aside from Sanchez two years ago, who was fifth on GC, there was Rasmussen, who finished 7th in 2005 and was in third before his disastrous final TT.

Santi Botero won the KOM in 2000 and was 7th overall.

Brian?

Vladimir Kurtains wrote: »

Aside from Sanchez two years ago, who was fifth on GC, there was Rasmussen, who finished 7th in 2005 and was in third before his disastrous final TT.

Santi Botero won the KOM in 2000 and was 7th overall.

Not as all over the place as I first thought.

Chips Lovell

My own little theory as to why KOM started being won by non-GC riders is that racing got more conservative from the 90s onwards. It seemed that GC riders would only attack on the final climb of the day, which meant that all the other KOM points were reserved for the break. Back in the 80s, GC contenders seemed more willing to go on a long attack.

That older style of racing is beginning to make a comeback, but the tactic of losing time to challenge for KOM points still remains.

Brian?

Vladimir Kurtains wrote: »

My own little theory as to why KOM started being won by non-GC riders is that racing got more conservative from the 90s onwards. It seemed that GC riders would only attack on the final climb of the day, which meant that all the other KOM points were reserved for the break. Back in the 80s, GC contenders seemed more willing to go on a long attack.

That older style of racing is beginning to make a comeback, but the tactic of losing time to challenge for KOM points still remains.

You're right. When was the last time we saw a contender attack on even the 2nd to last climb. It's all about putting a man up the road and attacking in the last few Kms these days. No Claudio Chiapucci style madness anymore.

Hermy

Perhaps the cleaner peloton has something to do with it?

ROK ON

Vladimir Kurtains wrote: »

My own little theory as to why KOM started being won by non-GC riders is that racing got more conservative from the 90s onwards. It seemed that GC riders would only attack on the final climb of the day, which meant that all the other KOM points were reserved for the break. Back in the 80s, GC contenders seemed more willing to go on a long attack.

That older style of racing is beginning to make a comeback, but the tactic of losing time to challenge for KOM points still remains.

I was speaking with The Taxman about something similar tonight. He stopped watching cycling around the same time that I did. During mid 1990s.
For kids who were introduced to cycling in the 80s we were spoilt.
Riders were rogues and characters. Long breakaways by serious riders were far more commonplace.

Indurain started killing cycling and Armstrong finished the job. It wasnt the drugs turned many fans off it was boredom.

That is why Dan Martin is so precious. He is a hard ass old style attacking rider. I hope he has a real good go - even if he doesn't win a stage. To see him attack repeatedly is pure joy.

I would love to see the cycling that I grew up with make a resurgence. I hate myself for liking Contador but he really can at times put it all on the line and attack.

Finally, I think an outside bet for KOM could be Andy Schleck. He is very very slowly getting better and seems to be battling some of his demons and confidence issues. I know he is easy to laugh at, but it wold be real good to see him make inroads in this tour.

Brian?

ROK ON wrote: »

I was speaking with The Taxman about something similar tonight. He stopped watching cycling around the same time that I did. During mid 1990s.
For kids who were introduced to cycling in the 80s we were spoilt.
Riders were rogues and characters. Long breakaways by serious riders were far more commonplace.

Indurain started killing cycling and Armstrong finished the job. It wasnt the drugs turned many fans off it was boredom.

That is why Dan Martin is so precious. He is a hard ass old style attacking rider. I hope he has a real good go - even if he doesn't win a stage. To see him attack repeatedly is pure joy.

I would love to see the cycling that I grew up with make a resurgence. I hate myself for liking Contador but he really can at times put it all on the line and attack.

Finally, I think an outside bet for KOM could be Andy Schleck. He is very very slowly getting better and seems to be battling some of his demons and confidence issues. I know he is easy to laugh at, but it wold be real good to see him make inroads in this tour.

I actually stopped watching the tour after Armstrong won it the 4th time. I'd had enough of his superhuman feats and could only shout "come on Ullrich" at the telly so many times before it broke me.

Indurain was never as dominant as Armstrong from what I remember.

I am a fan of Contador myself for pretty much the same reason, you know he's always going to attack. Tis great.

I reckon Andy is in with a shot at the Polka dot jersey as well. He won't spend half the climbs looking behind him for Frank for a change and won't be threatening enough on GC that he'll be marked too closely.

pelevin

On the attacking attitutes of past eras was recently watching 'Stars and Water Carriers', 1973 Giro film - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CRzomXXsauw -
and to see Merckx at the front shattering the peloton 2 mountains out & driving it on and on . . . What a different and more epic era! Not riding in fear of things going wrong. Science is conquering all these days though with Sky's relentless awful machine trying to eliminate all the random variables from the equation of racing.

Or for instance La Plagne when Roche made the unexpected comeback on Delgado . . . Roche had looked blown because he had attacked on the previous mountain.

ericzeking

Brian? wrote: »

I actually stopped watching the tour after Armstrong won it the 4th time. I'd had enough of his superhuman feats and could only shout "come on Ullrich" at the telly so many times before it broke me.

Indurain was never as dominant as Armstrong from what I remember.

I am a fan of Contador myself for pretty much the same reason, you know he's always going to attack. Tis great.

I reckon Andy is in with a shot at the Polka dot jersey as well. He won't spend half the climbs looking behind him for Frank for a change and won't be threatening enough on GC that he'll be marked too closely.

I was thinking Andy Schleck would be an outside each way bet for GC if you got a good price, his form profile this year is very similar to the years he contended. He rode well in Switzerland.

Chips Lovell

Hermy wrote: »

Perhaps the cleaner peloton has something to do with it?

I think it has a lot to do with it. The fact that we've had three grand tours in as many years where contenders were knocking the living daylights out of each other with longer and more opportunistic attacks isn't a coincidence.

mcgratheoin

pelevin wrote: »

Or for instance La Plagne when Roche made the unexpected comeback on Delgado . . . Roche had looked blown because he had attacked on the previous mountain.

At the same time, you could argue that this was Roche implementing the Sky/Wiggins strategy on this stage. Everybody complained about Sky last year when they wouldn't follow any attacks, just sit there and keep grinding away at their own tempo. That's exactly what Roche did to Delgado - he knew that if he kept dipping into the red to mark the moves that he'd blow up pretty quickly so he left him go and just concentrated on riding up the mountain as fast as he could on his own.


@Hermy & Vladimir Kurtins - are you both using the fact that the peleton is cleaner now to argue opposite points?

Chips Lovell

I thought we were making the same point.

pelevin

mcgratheoin wrote: »

At the same time, you could argue that this was Roche implementing the Sky/Wiggins strategy on this stage. Everybody complained about Sky last year when they wouldn't follow any attacks, just sit there and keep grinding away at their own tempo. That's exactly what Roche did to Delgado - he knew that if he kept dipping into the red to mark the moves that he'd blow up pretty quickly so he left him go and just concentrated on riding up the mountain as fast as he could on his own.

But Roche had himself gone on the attack prior to La Plagne on that stage and been reeled in and dropped by Delgado & whoever else. That's why it was considered so incredible for him to come back at Delgado - Roche had looked completely blown.

From Wiki account of that stage
:
"The pivotal stage was stage 21. In the first part of this stage, the Colombian cyclists of the "Cafe de Colombia" team (including Luis Herrera and Fabio Enrique Parra, fifth and sixth in the general classification) kept a high pace, and many cyclists were dropped. Roche, Delgado and Mottet decided to work together to get rid of the Colombian cyclists on the descent of the Galibier, out of fear that Herrera and Parra would leave them behind in the next climbs. Their plan worked, but Delgado's team mates were also dropped. Roche saw this opportunity and escaped, climbing the Madeleine alone.[9] Somewhat later, Delgado's team mates got back to Delgado, and together they chased Roche, and caught him just before the climb of La Plagne.. . . "

As you see, very unWiggins like & aggressive racing.

crumliniano

ROK ON wrote: »

For kids who were introduced to cycling in the 80s we were spoilt.
Riders were rogues and characters. Long breakaways by serious riders were far more commonplace.

Indurain started killing cycling and Armstrong finished the job. It wasnt the drugs turned many fans off it was boredom.

I completely agree. Indurain turned me off and it wasn't until Pantani that I fell in love with it all over again. Obviously his feats were indeed superhuman but that attacking style was great to watch at the time.

ROK ON wrote: »

I would love to see the cycling that I grew up with make a resurgence. I hate myself for liking Contador but he really can at times put it all on the line and attack.

Contador is great to watch but after the steak affair I can't believe him.


Not sure about the KOM this year but Paddy Power have a nice Bastille Day special - that's the Ventoux stage. 9/2 for a french winner. I reckon Pierre Rolland or Thibaut Pinot are good bet's for that. Maybe even Voekler after his recent win at Route du Sud.

mcgratheoin

Vladimir Kurtains wrote: »

I thought we were making the same point.

My reading of it was that Hermy says there's less attacking because there's less doping, but you say there's more attacking? Maybe my brain is on a go slow day though!

mcgratheoin

pelevin wrote: »

As you see, very unWiggins like & aggressive racing.

Fair enough, I'd forgotten about the earlier part of that stage.

One interesting thing about that is that the race was splintered by the Colombian team early on and Delgado was separated from his teammates on the descent. It's been a long time since I've seen team leaders that isolated that early in a stage and I wonder is that a result of more conservative tactics or is it that the modern super-domestiques are closer in ability to the team leaders? It's hard to imagine Contador and Froome agreeing to drop a bunch of Colombians on a descent today, but it's equally as hard to imagine that the top GC contenders would be worried about being dropped on the final climb either.

gordongekko

crumliniano wrote: »

I completely agree. Indurain turned me off and it wasn't until Pantani that I fell in love with it all over again. Obviously his feats were indeed superhuman but that attacking style was great to watch at the time.

was it the 2000 tour that he kept attacking Armstrong? They were great days.

happytramp

crumliniano wrote: »

Contador is great to watch but after the steak affair I can't believe him.

Me too, although since his return he's looked far more vulnerable, that might indicate something. So maybe it's okay to want Contador to beat Froome right?

Hermy

mcgratheoin wrote: »

My reading of it was that Hermy says there's less attacking because there's less doping, but you say there's more attacking? Maybe my brain is on a go slow day though!

I think I went slightly off-topic commenting on the Tour as a whole rather than just the Polka dot jersey.

Yes, I think there is less attacking because there's less doping (but there are other factors too such as power meters and radios which are spoiling things by taking the tactics out of the hands of the riders).

The stage to Alpe d'Huez won by Pierre Rolland in 2011 is what I'm on about. Gone it would seem are the days when a rider can attack at the bottom of an Hors Catégorie climb and continue unabated to the top. Now in the high mountains it appears to be far more of a suffer-fest and even the climbers have to drag themselves to the top.

A part of me still misses the exploits of Virenque and Pantani but that was all bullsh!t fuelled by doping.:(

pelevin

Hermy wrote: »

I think I went slightly off-topic commenting on the Tour as a whole rather than just the Polka dot jersey.

Yes, I think there is less attacking because there's less doping (but there are other factors too such as power meters and radios which are spoiling things by taking the tactics out of the hands of the riders).

The stage to Alpe d'Huez won by Pierre Rolland in 2011 is what I'm on about. Gone it would seem are the days when a rider can attack at the bottom of an Hors Catégorie climb and continue unabated to the top. Now in the high mountains it appears to be far more of a suffer-fest and even the climbers have to drag themselves to the top.

A part of me still misses the exploits of Virenque and Pantani but that was all bullsh!t fuelled by doping.:(

Watch that Stars & Watercarriers youtube clip earlier linked to of 1973 Giro and Fuente attacks 120 km out and stayed away to the finish. Merckx did similar escapades in the Tour. People attacked like lunatics before EPO. The relentlessly high pace of Sky nowadays is designed to make it virtually impossible to attack off the front. Could argue re-wheter Is it clean that Sky can have a little army of riders that strong day after day managing to negate 'racing'. Either way it's a tactic to negate old-style attacking, and there's a lot more to doping whether there's conservative dull racing or not.

mcgratheoin

pelevin wrote: »

Could argue re-wheter Is it clean that Sky can have a little army of riders that strong day after day managing to negate 'racing'.

How about cutting teams to 5 a la the Olympics road race - make it much more difficult for one team to control the entire race for three weeks. Now that would make it really interesting....

pelevin

mcgratheoin wrote: »

How about cutting teams to 5 a la the Olympics road race - make it much more difficult for one team to control the entire race for three weeks. Now that would make it really interesting....

That & cull race radio either fully or just to race leader would loosen things up an awful lot. Also make it much more rewarding for breakaways even on flat stages rather than the all-negating peloton mopping up everything in its way as it generally does now. Was great how in that Olympics race Brailsford's rigid no-racing vision was made look so crude, and ironically, given how such a vision is all about predictability, its failure so predictable.

mcgratheoin

pelevin wrote: »

That & cull race radio either fully or just to race leader would loosen things up an awful lot. Also make it much more rewarding for breakaways even on flat stages rather than the all-negating peloton mopping up everything in its way as it generally does now. Was great how in that Olympics race Brailsford's rigid no-racing vision was made look so crude, and ironically, given how such a vision is all about predictability, its failure so predictable.

So how about a manifesto for reform of cycle racing starting with

• Reduce the size of pro cycling teams in grand tours from 9 to 6
• Increase the number of teams in each tour
• Alter race radio so that riders can only hear from the commissaires who will broadcast time gaps and safety warnings of crashes/bad roads etc. thus returning tactical responsibility to the riders.

Dr. Bre

pelevin wrote: »

Just wondering if people reckon Dan Martin will have any interest in targeting the King of Mountains jersey in the Tour. Ladbrokes at 33/1 looks superficially interesting so any ideas?

i think garmin sharp to win team comp at 6/1 good be good bet. sky are favs but if they focus fully on froome for overall they may not be bothered by that competition. garmin should be able to send riders in breaks especially on mountain stages

pelevin

Dr. Bre wrote: »

i think garmin sharp to win team comp at 6/1 good be good bet. sky are favs but if they focus fully on froome for overall they may not be bothered by that competition. garmin should be able to send riders in breaks especially on mountain stages

How does the team competition work?

Dr. Bre

i think they count the top 3 on each team that finish a stage

pelevin

mcgratheoin wrote: »

So how about a manifesto for reform of cycle racing starting with

• Reduce the size of pro cycling teams in grand tours from 9 to 6
• Increase the number of teams in each tour
• Alter race radio so that riders can only hear from the commissaires who will broadcast time gaps and safety warnings of crashes/bad roads etc. thus returning tactical responsibility to the riders.

I'd be in favour but afraid my power-base in the world of cycling isn't particularly large . . .

manafana

Hoping Dan goes to target a top 10 and not go too mad trying to get a stage win or a jersey.

I really like Garmin to do well in team as mentioned . Generally you want 2 strong guys in overall and then guys who will go stage hunting in break aways they tick those boxes.

titan18

Landis into Morzine would be one where someone on GC attacked a long way out. So, not necessarily that doping stopped riders doing it.

MPFG

I am really looking forward to this Tour as Contador has promised to attack, BMC are unleashing shock & awe and Garmin are going create chaos.....

Sounds like a great day out to me

Hermy

Contador doing doing well in the Tour is a bad day out in my book.

mcgratheoin

MPFG wrote: »

Garmin are going create chaos.....

Makes it sound like Vaughters is going to turn the tour into Wacky Races!