Anyone know the sums behind Lotto?

Wicklowandy

http://www.lottery.ie/en/prizes-and-results/?game=lotto

My understanding of the lotto is that the probability of drawing a game ball is the same as the bonus ball(if you get me;))as the're selected from the full 42 balls

So why consistently is there more winners for three and the bonus than 4, for four and the bonus than 5, and for five and the bonus than 6.

Tonight there was no match 6 of Lotto, Lotto plus 1 or Lotto plus 2, but winners of match 5 and bonus, and the same for 4 and bonus etc. It's the same when I check back many months.

If the probabilities are the same, then surely sometimes, for example, more people would get 4 numbers than 3 and the bonus on occasion?

Maybe my maths are wrong. A little help?:)

Frosty McSnowballs

I have a foolproof system for winning the lotto.

Just click my link, download my ebook for the secret to financial success.

Wicklowandy

Would you take some of my magic beans for it?

Snowc

Senor Fancy Pants wrote: »

I have a foolproof system for winning the lotto.

Just click my link, download my ebook for the secret to financial success.

ha h .....

Frosty McSnowballs

Wicklowandy wrote: »

Would you take some of my magic beans for it?

Do you come with the car?

Boombastic

Just pick the 6 numbers on your ticket that they pullout of the drum, simples

Clareman

1. Do the sums
2. ??????
3. Win the Lotto

TimeToShine

The bonus ball is drawn last so their is a smaller pool of balls to choose from.

kneemos

If the bonus ball is taken at the end then there are less balls so more chance of having it.Not seen the lotto in decades so not sure how it works.

tim3000

Here is a good vid by a team of mathematicians about the English National Lottery. The numbers involved should be quite similar

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U7f8j3mVMbc

kneemos

TimeToShine wrote: »

The bonus ball is drawn last so their is a smaller pool of balls to choose from.

En garde.

B.A._Baracus

According to wikipedia the odds of matching 6 balls from a 48 number lotto draw is 1 in 13,983,816.

As Jim Carrey said in Dumb and Dumber - "so you're telling me there is a chance" :pac:

Rayne Wooney

There's 45 ways the first number could be picked, 44 the second, 43 the third, 42 the fourth, 41 the fifth and 40 the 6th. Then there's 6 different ways these winning numbers can line up so you divide

45x44x43x42x41x40 / 6!

So 1 in 8,145,060 are the odds of winning the lotto with 6 numbers.

If you're talking about only matching 3 numbers, the odds are considerably better.

You only need 3 numbers so there's 45 ways the first number could be drawn, 44 the second and 43 the third. There's 3 different ways these numbers could line up so you divide

45x44x43 / 3!

So 1 in 14,190

Which clearly is much better odds than getting 6 numbers. I'm not exactly sure of how the bonus ball works, but I think you count it as the 7th ball and the numbers will add up.

NinjaTruncs

Wicklowandy wrote: »

So why consistently is there more winners for three and the bonus than 4, for four and the bonus than 5, and for five and the bonus than 6.

The bonus is an extra ball. while you only need 4 numbers in each example you have more balls to get those numbers when the bonus ball is included.

Three and bonus is 4 out of 7 balls, while four (no bonus) is 4 out of 6 balls.

john_cappa

kneemos wrote: »

If the bonus ball is taken at the end then there are less balls so more chance of having it.Not seen the lotto in decades so not sure how it works.

Eh?

You should teach maths.

kneemos

john_cappa wrote: »

Eh?

You should teach maths.

Less balls higher odds of being picked so more winners of the bonus.

Ficheall

john_cappa wrote: »

Eh?

You should teach maths.

Eh?

No, he shouldn't.

NinjaTruncs

Ficheall wrote: »

Eh?

No, he shouldn't.

He can't be much worse than a lot of the teachers teaching maths :eek:

Bluegrass1

NinjaTruncs wrote: »

He can't be much worse than a lot of the teachers teaching maths :eek:

You mean the teachers paid to teach maths who don't.

Duggys Housemate

you get another go with any of the same balls you have already picked. so the odds of 5+1 is 6 times greater than 6


edit: full description here.

NinjaTruncs

Bluegrass1 wrote: »

You mean the teachers paid to teach maths who don't.

I mean teachers who are paid to teach maths but are not qualified to teach it.

Here's a post from a while back where, shockingly, most of the posters who replied have though Maths without being qualified to do so http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=84635690

Bluegrass1

NinjaTruncs wrote: »

I mean teachers who are paid to teach maths but are not qualified to teach it.

Here's a post from a while back where, shockingly, most of the posters who replied have though Maths without being qualified to do so http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=84635690

That is at second level. At primary level where in theory all (or the vast majority of) teachers are supposedly qualified, the teaching of maths leaves a lot to be desired.

Capt'n Midnight

Your odds are only half what you think they are as only 1/2 the money goes in prizes. (slightly less than this when you take into account the small prizes that get spent on more tickets)

Note good causes are getting about 10% smaller cut than 10 years ago.
Note also many of these good causes would otherwise be provided by the government so there is a slice of indirect taxation

In 2004, of each €l spent on national lottery games, in broad terms, €0.53 was returned in prizes, €0.06 in agent commission, €0.08 in operating costs and €0.33 to good causes.

http://oireachtasdebates.oireachtas.ie/debates%20authoring/DebatesWebPack.nsf/takes/seanad2013043000044

The main point in playing is the chance of winning something. As the lottery has changed, the different games have developed a different prize structure. Some offer prizes in excess of 50% of the take, up to 55% in some of the games. Therefore, rather than have a fixed 30% of all going to good causes, I have suggested a fixed percentage of an overarching amount of sales, less prizes.

super_furry

It's 50/50 - you either win or you don't.

Sunnyisland

I put 14 euro on two numbers on William hill online Saturday and won 720 euro :-)



I knows it nothing to do with the op but just thought I would share the story...

the groutch

Rayne Wooney wrote: »

If you're talking about only matching 3 numbers, the odds are considerably better.

You only need 3 numbers so there's 45 ways the first number could be drawn, 44 the second and 43 the third. There's 3 different ways these numbers could line up so you divide

45x44x43 / 3!

So 1 in 14,190

odds of getting 3 numbers is 1 in 47.3

(45 x 44 x 43) / (6 x 5 x 4) / 15

Duggys Housemate

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Your odds are only half what you think they are as only 1/2 the money goes in prizes. (slightly less than this when you take into account the small prizes that get spent on more tickets)

Note good causes are getting about 10% smaller cut than 10 years ago.
Note also many of these good causes would otherwise be provided by the government so there is a slice of indirect taxation

http://oireachtasdebates.oireachtas.ie/debates%20authoring/DebatesWebPack.nsf/takes/seanad2013043000044

I am disappoint.

MonkstownHoop

You give Lotto your Money, Lotto keep your money

kneemos

Bells,whistles and balloons fall from the ceiling.

General General

Chance of a horse winning is higher if it has four legs rather than three... yet a five or six legged horse never wins. Why? Five or six legged horses aren't allowed to race! Why? Clearly, they'd have a massive advantage!

Next question?

Ush1

So ANC is good but Sinn Fein/IRA bad?

Capt'n Midnight

General General wrote: »

Chance of a horse winning is higher if it has four legs rather than three... yet a five or six legged horse never wins. Why? Five or six legged horses aren't allowed to race! Why? Clearly, they'd have a massive advantage!

Next question?

You can recognise six legged horses , they have two hindlegs and forelegs at the front.

Capt'n Midnight

Ush1 wrote: »

So ANC is good but Sinn Fein/IRA bad?

It's not like the ANC had a democratic option when 85% of the population weren't entitled to vote (ok there were separate elections for indian and black but only the whites got to vote for those who held real power)