What is the Bookies margin in football

mayoman1973

Suppose you start with £1000 and blindly lay £1 on 1000 different matches on the bookies favorite each game, then how much money would you expect to collect? I use 1000 samples as a figure that will even out things. Obviously you won't win em all so would you expect say to have £900 in your pocket, ie giving a bookies margin of 10%
Just interested to know, I'm not about to try this , lol.....

tinodz

A lot of people gamble on big accs, btts accas, first goalscorers (bookies push this hard), correct score, wincasts and other specific things in football bets.

All that, along with highly specific (at times stupidly so) in-play stuff (just look at the Bet365 adverts at HT of every match always pushing correct goal and next goal scorer) is where the bookies make their money in football bets

Focusing solely on Win/Loss/Draw means it would be hard to put a dent in anything.

mayoman1973

Cheers, so you think it would be pretty close to here's your money back sort of thing, waste of time so to speak with neither punter or bookie making anything?

tinodz

mayoman1973 wrote: »

Cheers, so you think it would be pretty close to here's your money back sort of thing, waste of time so to speak with neither punter or bookie making anything?

I think so, but it would at least be more hassle than it is worth for little (if any) return. If you were to throw int the BTTS and the Over/Under market, that would open up other options

However, you still missing out on the crucial multiple team acca that people spend €5 on every weekend - bookies make thier dosh there, as those €5 quickly add up.

DoctaDee

A bookies margin in the case of any football bet is potentially ensured due to their applying an overround on the true bet prices - in basic terms they reduce the true price odds to get their rake or commission from a betting market.

The relative probability of a true bet Win-Draw-Win market is always 100% - e.g 50% of the time Home Win, 30% draw & 20% Away Win - reducing the odds or to apply the overround may then show the relative probabilities as 55% Home , 33% Draw & 25% Away so they've created a probablity market for the total book of 113%, the extra 13% is the overround and potentail profit should punters follow the those exact proportions.

smemon

The single greatest problem punters have is keeping discipline... you're not going to put €5 on a team that are 1/100 to win like Spain -v- Tahiti...

You'll most likely put it on Spain -5 handicap or something at even money or whatever it may be...

But if you win, you'll keep doing it and sooner or later you'll reach a point where you tie your bank up on a bet or series of bets that fail.

Punters won't (a) stick to a system (b) stick to the same system when it loses

mayoman1973

Good stuff, I just need 3 things, A system that works, money and lots of luck

DoctaDee

mayoman1973 wrote: »

Good stuff, I just need 3 things, A system that works, money and lots of luck

Ha! send it onto me too mayoman !

Seriously tho if you're looking at footie betting, and have the discipline not to lose yer bollix through degenerate betting stick around the forum, there's some fantastic analysis from any number of posters in a variety of markets, which some would specialise in, and maybe wouldn't be your 1st preference when betting - cards, corners, unders/overs etc. There's also posters with specific knowledge of national leagues in France, Holland and our own LOI. Stay up late with our late shift in South America too. Enjoy but not at any expense .

mayoman1973

Guys. Would you consider a target return of 13% - 16% for a spread bet a bit optimistic for a betting system? In my own mind im thinking anything that returns more than 1% and works more than 99% of the time is a good system.

mayoman1973

mayoman1973 wrote: »

Good stuff, I just need 3 things, A system that works, money and lots of luck

Show me a bettor with a system, and I'll show you a bankrupt man.