Thursday 6th June

rossom

6.50 Sandown

Muhdiq 16/1

Although the draw in stall 14 could have been kinder, Mike Murphy's unexposed 4 year old Muhdiq ran a much better race than his finishing position of 11th suggests on his seasonal reappearance and I think the handicapper dropping him 2lb for his latest run to a mark of 78, which he was successful off just two starts ago, is a huge overreaction. Average in 3 starts for Brian Meehan in Maiden's as a 2 year old, Muhdiq has been progressive since switched to handicaps for his new trainer and got off the mark at the 3rd time of asking in handicaps (6th career start) when winning by nose (more comfortable than the margin suggests). Off a mark of 75 over 5f at Lingfield on the AW last October, Muhdiq came from last to first under Pat Dobbs who looked pretty confident in winning the head bobber and that race has worked out very strongly. It is also very interesting that the 3rd that day Rebecca Romero is only 1lb better off today and given that she is the clear 5/1 2nd favourite I think the price difference between the pair doesn't make sense. Raised 3lb to a mark of 78, Muhdiq scored for the 2nd consecutive time at Lingfield upped to 6f when scoring by a head under Neil Callan (again value for more than the winning distance) and although that race isn't overly good form it certainly showed he was going the right way. He was then put away for the winter and made a much better reappearance than his 11th place finish suggests as he was raced on the stands side at Ascot last month which was hugely disadvantaged by the draw and he was actually 2nd home in his group. Moreover, Dobbs crossed Muhdiq over from the far side group to the stand side mid race which surely cost him a couple of lengths and I think the handicapper has been very kind to drop him 2lb for that run back to his last winning mark. Additionally, he shaped if he'd improve for the run and I think he'll be spot on for a big run in this. Although the draw from stall 14 isn't ideal, Dobbs may drop him out for a late run which should definitely suit as there seems an abundance of pace in the race. Although probably better over 6f, Sandown's stiff 5f coupled with a strong pace should definitely be in Muhdiq's favour and he showed he's got the pace for 5f when winning at Lingfield over the trip 3 starts ago. With conditions in his favour, Muhdiq is very unexposed with only 8 starts to date and I certainly don't think we've seen the best of this 4 year old yet and I think 16/1 is a great each way price and far bigger than I thought he'd be. In what looks a very open contest, I'm having a saver on Solemn 16/1 who won this race eased down by 6L last year off a 4lb higher mark and with Matthew Lawson taking a further 5lb off his back and this being his lowest mark in over 3 years it wouldn't surprise me if a big run was on the cards.

ste2010

Fancies for today

Scooter Fontaine will have the measure of captain kelly in the first at ffos las.
Also don cantillons oscars way I think will take the flat contest in the last race on the card ahead of the red hot Bowen stable fav.

convert

Threads re. today's fancies merged.

nevis7

some very clever clogs are going headlong for captain Kelly in that race in wales. the punting has a smell to it, one of them says that scoter fountain finished lame last time, and has not been sound since. on form he is the better horse, the market does not agree. caution or avoid.

ste2010

nevis7 wrote: »

some very clever clogs are going headlong for captain Kelly in that race in wales. the punting has a smell to it, one of them says that scoter fountain finished lame last time, and has not been sound since. on form he is the better horse, the market does not agree. caution or avoid.

Agree regarding form. Captain kelly is a bottler. I think an average performance from scoter Fontaine will do, but if he's still not right he shouldn't be running. Market tells its own story I'm hoping its wrong as my money is down alteady Thanks any way though valuable info for anyone else backing in the race

Slattsy

Sandown 6.50
Asian Trader
Frankie Dettori
9/4

/thread

Meritocracy Wins

Fallon has just tipped his ride Spieta at Brighton 4:15 on ATR.
Currently 3/1 on PP.

carpothepunk

Homage tonight, the word is he wins tonight, gets a 6lb penalty, and gets into the Britannia. Thats the plan anyway.

Jimmy Egan was raving about Thomas Hobson's chances tonight also, telling anyone who would listen that he would win. Just passing on. GL.

Like Jacksonslady as well this evening.

hawkeyethenoo

no mention on atr of mccoy blatently edging across the second horse there and nearly smashing him agaisnt the rails. :rolleyes:

carpothepunk

No, it was just a fantastic ride from the champ, never say die, lifted him home etc etc

ste2010

carpothepunk wrote: »

Homage tonight, the word is he wins tonight, gets a 6lb penalty, and gets into the Britannia. Thats the plan anyway.

Jimmy Egan was raving about Thomas Hobson's chances tonight also, telling anyone who would listen that he would win. Just passing on. GL.

Like Jacksonslady as well this evening.

Who's jimmy Egan?

ste2010

Going on your saver for the handicap at sandown Rossom! I see your fancy is into 9's you should become an odds trader

SRFC

Found my first Galway winner that thing of Welds in the 6.40 Lineman,the slowest change of whip hand ive ever seen if it was a smaller trainer they'd be in trouble 0 effort in the last furlong when it started to take off.

Slattsy

Slattsy wrote: »

Sandown 6.50
Asian Trader
Frankie Dettori
9/4

/thread

That's how you do it folks.

jimjamcos

Slattsy wrote: »

That's how you do it folks.

They were bound to find the poor fella a winner sooner or later! :P

ste2010

I can recall speaking to a few people at punchestown and was told storm away in the last at tipp was a horse they expected to win of the bumpers in punchestown LtO came 3rd behind bluemountainbeach if I can recall.
That bumper over the years has produced good sorts as does the one in tipp this evening. I'd expect storm away has a great chance tonight

jimjamcos

ste2010 wrote: »

I can recall speaking to a few people at punchestown and was told storm away in the last at tipp was a horse they expected to win of the bumpers in punchestown LtO came 3rd behind bluemountainbeach if I can recall.
That bumper over the years has produced good sorts as does the one in tipp this evening. I'd expect storm away has a great chance tonight

Didn't back him but well done, super stuff! Hacked up and more!

shy-tall-knight

Half brother to Bahrain Storm, will be watching out for him at Galway

Johner

Well done Ste, looks a nice one.

Gatame

Slattsy wrote: »

Sandown 6.50
Asian Trader
Frankie Dettori
9/4

/thread

Got him at 11/4 on betfair, cheers for the spot!

Johner

Just watched the replay of the 8.20 at Tipp. Why didnt they put the screens up around that horse? :rolleyes: Useless! They had some thick with a flag running at the horses. :rolleyes: And half the field ran over him. Shocking stuff tbh.

superfurry1

Just watched the replay of 7.45 Tipp had Back before dawn at big prices nicely bred but boy did he get pulled all the way to the line and just about let go nearer the line definitely one to watch out for Enright you're having a laugh:(

Motivator

Johner wrote: »

Just watched the replay of the 8.20 at Tipp. Why didnt they put the screens up around that horse? :rolleyes: Useless! They had some thick with a flag running at the horses. :rolleyes: And half the field ran over him. Shocking stuff tbh.

I came on to comment about that incident, I was at Tipperary the other night & what happened was disgraceful. There should have been more made of that but there wasn't. Sickening to see & those gombeens working on course should be reprimanded over it.