Curragh Sunday 26th

jimjamcos

Just the 2 for me tomorrow...

3.20: Al Kazeem In a 2 horse race this lad has got to be the bet. Obviously Camelot is the likely winner but the horses he's beaten have proven to be a poor bunch time and time again. He hasn't quite looked the same horse that excelled in the Derby since he ran on that bad ground in Irish Derby. Add to that the fact that had colic over the winter and was more workmanlike than brilliant when winning an average race LTO. Al Kazeem won a group 2 at Newmarket in May last year before injury kept him off. In that race, he had decent types in Dunaden and Meandre behind him. His comeback run against Thomas Chippendale and subsequent winner Ektihaam showed that he still retains his ability and connections wouldn't bring him over unless they felt he'd do himself justice. Trainer says he's thrived since his comeback run and with Camelot still having something to prove IMO, I think he's the value. 11/4


3.55: Big Break Just The Judge sets the standard but I love the look of Famous Name's full-sister. She couldn't have been more impressive in her last 2 runs last season and while Weld came out and said she needed some rain during the week, the first of those wins was on good, good-firm in places. He was quoted as saying after her Leopardstown win: "On the faster surface she is more explosive and she is a miler with serious gears." Anyway, in her last race she had, an albeit under-performing, Magician behind her and we seen what he did today. She's the value IMO @ 7/1 with PP.

luckyeye

As mentioned in another thread, I like Just the Judge for the 1000 Gunieas. Have taken the 3/1. I was concerned about Maureen but less so now after seeing the way Hannon's two ran in the 2000 today. May cover with Big Break but as JimJam pointed out above, may prefer ground with a cut (not to say that he doesn't go on Good/Firm).

I think I have have somehow managed to weed one out of the 28 runner Texacloth Handicap (16:30). A lot don't seem to go on the firm ground or are at their highest marks.

Cecil Ross doesn't have a big stable but he does have the talented Six of Hearts. It might concern some that his last win came in June '11 but that was in a 28 runner handicap, on good ground, at the Curragh, off a mark of 102. Had a nice reappearance in Navan where he finished 2nd on unsuitably soft ground, he tuns up tomorrow off a mark of 96. Like Hitchens and Kingsgate Native today, needs to get the break and luck and running, even more so in a 28 runner handicap, but hoping he can be there challenging at the finish.

14's available (Boyle and Paddy's)

the groutch

Four Shuck Men is running in the 2:00 @ Uttoxeter, might be worth giving another chance over hurdles.

going for Viztoria in the 1000g, should go close if handling the faster ground.

MoscowFlyer

Sad to see only 2 meaningful runners in the Gold Cup

the groutch

MoscowFlyer wrote: »

Sad to see only 2 meaningful runners in the Gold Cup

let me remind you of this race

http://www.irishracing.com/result?prn=Curragh&prc=084&prd=201205071625

Overthelast

Hanky panky blue across the board. Must be the pricewise pick

jimjamcos

Overthelast wrote: »

Hanky panky blue across the board. Must be the pricewise pick

When was the last time Segal tipped a winner do you know? Is it just me or has he not been producing as many as other years? I'm struggling to think of a big-priced winner he's had in last while.

sonnky

jimjamcos wrote: »

When was the last time Segal tipped a winner do you know? Is it just me or has he not been producing as many as other years? I'm struggling to think of a big-priced winner he's had in last while.

1 winner and 43 losers in May!

jimjamcos

sonnky wrote: »

1 winner and 43 losers in May!

You for real? Didn't think it was THAT bad! :eek:

Gringo180

Joke of a turnout for the Gold Cup tomorrow how on earth is this race a Group 1

fangee

jimjamcos wrote: »

Just the 2 for me tomorrow...

3.20: Al Kazeem In a 2 horse race this lad has got to be the bet. Obviously Camelot is the likely winner but the horses he's beaten have proven to be a poor bunch time and time again. He hasn't quite looked the same horse that excelled in the Derby since he ran on that bad ground in Irish Derby. Add to that the fact that had colic over the winter and was more workmanlike than brilliant when winning an average race LTO. Al Kazeem won a group 2 at Newmarket in May last year before injury kept him off. In that race, he had decent types in Dunaden and Meandre behind him. His comeback run against Thomas Chippendale and subsequent winner Ektihaam showed that he still retains his ability and connections wouldn't bring him over unless they felt he'd do himself justice. Trainer says he's thrived since his comeback run and with Camelot still having something to prove IMO, I think he's the value. 11/4


3.55: Big Break Just The Judge sets the standard but I love the look of Famous Name's full-sister. She couldn't have been more impressive in her last 2 runs last season and while Weld came out and said she needed some rain during the week, the first of those wins was on good, good-firm in places. He was quoted as saying after her Leopardstown win: "On the faster surface she is more explosive and she is a miler with serious gears." Anyway, in her last race she had, an albeit under-performing, Magician behind her and we seen what he did today. She's the value IMO @ 7/1 with PP.

Ah FFS. As if things haven't been bad enough I've got this F*uckin theme tune in my head now. It'll probably be there all day as there's nothing else in there.

CLARA BEL LA in the 2.15 EW for me.

mike65

In the 16.30 I'm going to try a high numbers combined forecast, these big field sprints of 6f show a definite bias towards the higher half of the draw. I'll also do an e/w on the three.

from ATR

One good example of an individual race bias came in the 6f Peter Keatley Curragh Equine Groundcare Handicap on 30th September 2008. The winner Toasted Special was drawn top of the shop in 30, with the next 10 runners home drawn 16, 25, 20, 28, 26, 27, 17, 22, 24 and 19. The best finishing position for a single figure drawn horse was a distant 15th! Another example of a high draw bias over 6f occurred on 13th April in the Four Star Keadeen Hotel Handicap. The 29 runner race saw the first five horses home drawn 20, 17, 27, 24 and 21, with the best finishing position for a single figure stall 13th.

Via Ballycroy 24/ Arbitrageur 26/Grey Danube 27

Overthelast

Fillies take centre stage at the curragh. If there was a life guard on duty, he'd hoist a warning flag over the grandstand, they are as predicable as their human counterparts. I'm going to try Longchamp and have been waiting for Ivory Land after he met trouble when about to make his run lto before running on strong and was a tad unlucky imo. The field only had 6 runners that day but amazingly still ran up the backside of
one of the others. Only 7 runners here
but with his conqueror last train making the market, he should be a nice
price. I'm hoping he can swoop late and fast to claim this Grp 2.

Overthelast

jimjamcos wrote: »

You for real? Didn't think it was THAT bad! :eek:

He's on a bad run indeed. Bought the paper this morning and he is openly admitting same. I don't follow him every week but do watch his w/e selections and if i have no picks, i sometimes go with one of his if he makes a strong case. They have online pricewise extra ones also which I have no visibility on. The 1 from 43 in may quoted above is terrible. Last big winner I remember was at the end of march sweet lightning in the Irish Lincoln. He's due a change in form and maybe he'll get it today.

mike65

Random picking of double figure horses would probably yield more wins.

ste2010

Overthelast wrote: »

He's on a bad run indeed. Bought the paper this morning and he is openly admitting same. I don't follow him every week but do watch his w/e selections and if i have no picks, i sometimes go with one of his if he makes a strong case. They have online pricewise extra ones also which I have no visibility on. The 1 from 43 in may quoted above is terrible. Last big winner I remember was at the end of march sweet lightning in the Irish Lincoln. He's due a change in form and maybe he'll get it today.

Didn't he tip barizan up 3 weeks ago?

Overthelast

ste2010 wrote: »

Didn't he tip barizan up 3 weeks ago?

Your right! Forgot that one.

Hulk Hands

mike65 wrote: »

Random picking of double figure horses would probably yield more wins.

In the last month yeah. Over the last number of years where he's proved himself to be one of the greatest tipsters of all time, no. Picking long shots is always going to yield barren spells. That they're so rare for Segal just shows how good he is

kfallon

I hope Sir John Hawkins turns out to be a good one, loved both his parents!

longshotvalue

mike65 wrote: »

Random picking of double figure horses would probably yield more wins.

thats not tuue, in fairness if you backed €10 each point on all his selections this year so far you would be €250 up at the betfair starting price, at which you can have as much on as you like. He also has to deal with teh fact that his horses are backed more than any others whihc makes it unbelivable difficult to make a profit at starting price.

luckyeye

Jessie Harrington's could go well in the next. Seems to target this race (this fellow won it two years and had plenty placed runners) so hoping he can go close off a nice mark.

kfallon

Well done Sir John, oh how I enjoyed that

Handsome Bob

Bottled backing Sir John as I don't usually like backing unraced horses. On Fairview Star in the next one anyway, but might put something on Beach of Falesa. Backed it before and it impressed me.

3ndahalfof6

CURRAGH 2:15 CUL BAIRE 10/1

3:55 BUNAIRGEAD 40/1

4:30 FOOT PERFECT 33/1

Overthelast

My selection at Longchamp Ivory land is a nr going to side with Mandour in the Grp 1 race next at Longchamp instead.

jimjamcos

And the hype goes up in flames!

Johner

Camelot beaten fair and square.

Gringo180

Said it a few weeks back on here that this horse os one to watch out for, he won that a shade cosily too. I think he will be better over 12f too.

jimjamcos

Gringo180 wrote: »

Said it a few weeks back on here that this horse os one to watch out for, he won that a shade cosily too. I think he will be better over 12f too.

Fair play to yourself lad. Was always planning on opposing Camelot this season but I hadn't really considered Al Kazeem as a threat until you mentioned it a few weeks back. When looking at his form closely and what he'd shown on comeback, he'd every to beat Camelot so thank you!

carpothepunk

Sitting on what could be a decent placepot at the Curragh today. Snow Queen and Six of Hearts to come.

Gringo180

jimjamcos wrote: »

Fair play to yourself lad. Was always planning on opposing Camelot this season but I hadn't really considered Al Kazeem as a threat until you mentioned it a few weeks back. When looking at his form closely and what he'd shown on comeback, he'd every to beat Camelot so thank you!

His win at Sandown was extremely impressive considering he was off the track for a year and only coming back from a serious injury. We havent seen the best of him yet but I wont get a nice price on him now after today :-(

Handsome Bob

On Maureen in the next.

ste2010

Did a nicholls double at fontwell. The Milan horse to come..:concerns about nicholls sending his first time chasers out for a spin...anyone any input on this race?

mike65

mike65 wrote: »

In the 16.30 I'm going to try a high numbers combined forecast, these big field sprints of 6f show a definite bias towards the higher half of the draw. I'll also do an e/w on the three.


Via Ballycroy 24/ Arbitrageur 26/Grey Danube 27

Via Ballycroy 1st
Arbitrageur 2nd

60c stake Combination Forecast returned €11.38! Chicken dinner?

kfallon

Just when I was beginning to think Bolger was out of form he pops up with a winner!

ste2010

mike65 wrote: »

Via Ballycroy 1st
Arbitrageur 2nd

60c stake Combination Forecast returned €11.38! Chicken dinner?

Well done mike some picking though.