Irish 1000 Guineas / Oaks

luckyeye

Anyone know if Just the Judge is coming over for the weekend?

And will Moth run in the 1000 Guineas or the Oaks?

Slattsy

Just the Judge is confirmed for the 1000.

Re Moth, doubt she'll run, the Oaks is her next stop.

luckyeye

Slattsy wrote: »

Just the Judge is confirmed for the 1000.

Re Moth, doubt she'll run, the Oaks is her next stop.

Thanks Slattsy. Do you have a link confirming she will run?

Last I have is the 5 day declarations and last I see from yard is:

"We'll see how she is in the next week or 10 days. If she's absolutely bouncing, bucking and kicking, then we'll consider going to Ireland with her.
"If we feel she wants a bit more time, we can wait for the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot."

Slattsy

Sorry lad, don't have a link as I'm on my phone.

But read it on Atr that she'll run.

kfallon

Moth prob run in both races imo

Pat power

I really fancy Maureen in the irish 1000 guineas,i think she is the one they all have to beat imo,13/2 now in boylesports,get on folks

luckyeye

kfallon wrote: »

Moth prob run in both races imo

Really?!?

3YO filly runs a Group 1 on Sunday and 5 days later runs in another Group 1, in a different country.

Now that would be impressive!!

kfallon

luckyeye wrote: »

Really?!?

3YO filly runs a Group 1 on Sunday and 5 days later runs in another Group 1, in a different country.

Now that would be impressive!!

Yesterday
Virginia Waters
Peeping Fawn
Misty For Me
Remember When

all ran in Irish Guineas and then Epsom Oaks for Aidan O'Brien.

luckyeye

kfallon wrote: »

Yesterday
Virginia Waters
Peeping Fawn
Misty For Me
Remember When

all ran in Irish Guineas and then Epsom Oaks for Aidan O'Brien.

Most had a larger gap between races except for peeping fawn - 5 days between her races also in 07...really surprises me this...

Yesterday - 12 days between races
Virginia Waters - 13 days between races
Misty For Me - 13 days between races
Remember When - 12 days between races

kfallon

O'Brien had said she'd run in both but seems to have had a change of heart

http://www.racingtips.com/category/Latest-News/Moth-heading-straight-to-Epsom-201305140043/

luckyeye

Just the Judge confirmed for Sunday. Now best priced 3/1 with Paddy's.

Hope she came out of the English Guineas ok, but if she did, I'm struggling to see past her tbh...

Pat power

luckyeye wrote: »

Just the Judge confirmed for Sunday. Now best priced 3/1 with Paddy's.

Hope she came out of the English Guineas ok, but if she did, I'm struggling to see past her tbh...

Look at the race again on attheraces or youtube mate,Maureen was coming home like an express train,only finished 2 lengths behind the winner,was switched all over the track,should be another cracking race

Gringo180

If there is a bit of cut in the ground ill be all over Snow Queen she absolutely sprouted wings in the final 2f at Newmarket and did well to finish 5th as she was right at the back of the field when they quickened up.

Pat power

Gringo180 wrote: »

If there is a bit of cut in the ground ill be all over Snow Queen she absolutely sprouted wings in the final 2f at Newmarket and did well to finish 5th as she was right at the back of the field when they quickened up.

The going is currently fast at the curragh at the moment mate

Gringo180

Pat power wrote: »

The going is currently fast at the curragh at the moment mate

Ill still back her on fast ground, if you look back @ the 1000 guineas you will see why I fancy her she absolutely flew home, but I think she's better suited with a bit of cut in the ground.

jimjamcos

If there's cut in the ground, I'll be a Big Break backer! Showers are forecast before the weekend apparently.

UrbanSea

5 mm of rain Friday and not sure about the rest they were watering the other day

Gringo180

The Lark is massively over priced @33/1 for The Oaks on Friday cant believe she is that big a price :eek:

mohican22

Gringo180 wrote: »

The Lark is massively over priced @33/1 for The Oaks on Friday cant believe she is that big a price :eek:

Watch her last run obviously needed but if she wins the Oaks it'll be a very poor renewal,unless she gets some of the Al Zaarooni stuff 6th or 7th at best imo

rockycelt

had high hopes for The Lark this season, but I agree with mohican, she'll need to come on plenty (and a bit more) based on the last run, to get close to the likes of Secret Gesture. I see Hayley Turner has been ditched for Spencer on her.

I can't see past Secret Gesture, but of the outsiders Talent looks the each way pick.

Gringo180

mohican22 wrote: »

Watch her last run obviously needed but if she wins the Oaks it'll be a very poor renewal,unless she gets some of the Al Zaarooni stuff 6th or 7th at best imo

They crawled along in her reappearance so I wouldn't take that form literally, and she was only beaten a few lenghts by John Gosdens exciting filly Winsili. A good gallop and maybe a bit of cut in the ground will suit The Lark alot more and is one to watch out for if she gets her conditions.

luckyeye

No real strong view on the Oaks tbh. Might have a small play on Banoffee, mainly because I don't see any value in the first 3 in the market, and at the end of the day, fillies will be fillies

The two races that Banoffee has won have proven to be decent trials for this race. The last 5 winners of the Whitley who have go on to run in the Oaks finished 15414 and the last 6 winners of the Cheshire Oaks who have go on to run in the Oaks finished 610042.

Interestingly, the Lingfield Oaks (Secret Gesture) trial hasn't been the best - 7790294. And a lot of horses are tripping up one crucial stat - ALL of the last 10 winners had won over 1m+ (Banoffee has. Twice.)

Given the above, and the fact that the owners were willing to fork out the 30k to supplement her, at 8/1 (Various) I think she is the each way play.

Best of Luck.

Gringo180

Looking at the Oaks field again you can make a case for the majority of the field it really is a tricky race to decipher, I think I will be backing a big priced filly in this each way. Torn between Michael Bells 2 fillies and Talent

Slattsy

Moth all the way

Gringo180

Slattsy wrote: »

Moth all the way

Very much the same profile as Maybe had last year that is what is putting me off her.

Slattsy

Gringo180 wrote: »

Very much the same profile as Maybe had last year that is what is putting me off her.

Well not really. Maybe was a much much much much emphasis on much better 2 year old.
So basically, they're opposites.

jimjamcos

Moth for me too!

madmoose

Really tempted with talent ew at 16/1 at the moment, wide open race.

mailburner

difficult race but banoffee looked as good as anything ive
seen so far which makes 8s look a good price

the fav could win but is plenty short enough
so much hype around it that im inclined to believe it though

jimjamcos

madmoose wrote: »

Really tempted with talent ew at 16/1 at the moment, wide open race.

Who gives a shit about Talent when you've a fit Moth?!

madmoose

Haha, shes unknown on soft which its going to be there so might just give it a miss.

jimjamcos

madmoose wrote: »

Haha, shes unknown on soft which its going to be there so might just give it a miss.

Don't worry, the Moth has no problem getting down and dirty! She performs much much better when it's wet. Going could never be damp enough for her!!

madmoose

Filthy mare, the moose needs to get involved with her!!