Snapshot - May 18th: New opinion poll shows gains for Sinn Féin

Sully

A new opinion poll just out shows gains for Sinn Féin at the expense of Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil.

There has been a slight improvement in the number of people satisfied with the coalition's performance - but almost three quarters of people remain unhappy with the Government.

The Milward Brown survey for the Sunday Independent shows Fianna Fáil remaining the most popular party on 26% - down a point on a month ago.

Fine Gael also goes down a point to 23%.

Sinn Féin are up three points to 19%, Labour are unchanged on 12, with independents and others also staying steady on 18%.

Some 19% are satisfied with the coalition's performance - up two points from a month ago, but 73% are dissatisfied.

....

On abortion, 53% support the inclusion of the threat of suicide in the legislation, down from 58% a month ago.

Source: http://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/new-opinion-poll-shows-gains-for-sinn-fein-594832.html

Not sure exactly what Sinn Fein have done recently to garner an increase in the polls. But it seems to be a continued up/down pattern for Sinn Fein support and a tit-for-tat on Fianna Fail who are falling from grace again.

Dissatisfaction with the government is steady, and while a slight increase was recorded, not significant enough to make a difference or a talking point. Fine Gael lost a point, but again, its more steady than anything. Labour & the Indos are steadying, but the Wallace impact on Independents (if any) wouldn't be recorded in this poll.

The abortion campaign has lost a little ground re: suicide. But still, a large amount of people want it included.

No surprise the government parties haven't budged much. Really, the overall state of play is steady and I think that's because there hasn't been much on the political front by the parties to see any difference.

p1akuw47h5r3it

I'm still bewildered as to why people care about these polls. They change week by week.

raymon

The Fianna Fail Sunday newsletter poll shows FF favourably.

Ah well , it will give the FF journalists something to write about .

Again will wait for the redC .

Dob74

raymon wrote: »

The Fianna Fail Sunday newsletter poll shows FF favourably.

Ah well , it will give the FF journalists something to write about .

Again will wait for the redC .

http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/seven-out-of-10-unhappy-with-how-country-is-run-29277756.html

FF 26%
FG 23%
SF 19%
Lab 12%
Inp 18%


Conservative party's 49%, Left wing party's 39%.
A general election result like this could mean an end to civil war politics.
FG are starting to take in the neck now.
Can't wait to see the angle the spindo and Denis O'Brien radio puts on these numbers.

Sully

Dob74 wrote: »

http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/seven-out-of-10-unhappy-with-how-country-is-run-29277756.html

FF 26%
FG 23%
SF 19%
Lab 12%
Inp 18%


Conservative party's 49%, Left wing party's 39%.
A general election result like this could mean an end to civil war politics.
FG are starting to take in the neck now.
Can't wait to see the angle the spindo and Denis O'Brien radio puts on these numbers.

Not sure why you think FG are 'starting to take it in the neck now'. Despite the huge dissatisfaction with the government - FG remains pretty high and very stable come poll after poll. Labour lost a lot of ground but they seem to be at their core now and not moving much.

The battle is between FF/SF & the Indos. That's whats pretty all over the place.

Dob74

Sully wrote: »

Not sure why you think FG are 'starting to take it in the neck now'. Despite the huge dissatisfaction with the government - FG remains pretty high and very stable come poll after poll. Labour lost a lot of ground but they seem to be at their core now and not moving much.

The battle is between FF/SF & the Indos. That's whats pretty all over the place.

FG -13% from 2011 GE. They would lose 20 to 30 seats if they got 23%.
Labour -7% from Ge. They would lose 10 to 15.

Labour have been making the headlines especially in the indo for a slide in the polls. FG have lost more support and there has been much less comment on the matter.

RATM

Dob74 wrote: »

FG -13% from 2011 GE. They would lose 20 to 30 seats if they got 23%.
Labour -7% from Ge. They would lose 10 to 15.

Labour have been making the headlines especially in the indo for a slide in the polls. FG have lost more support and there has been much less comment on the matter.

Fine Gael have been losing support but not as much as Labour when you look at it proportionally. FG falling from 36% to 23% is slightly more than a third less support. Labour falling from 14% to 7% is half of their voters from GE 2011 evaporating.

But I think the sentiment of what you wrote is correct- there is almost next to no coverage of FG losing a third of their support. I suppose it is just taken as a given that this third of their 2011 vote are actually people who are sympathetic FF'ers who 'lent' FG their vote to get FF out of office. Most hardcore FF'ers stayed away from the polls in 2011 but there was a subsection who went out to vote FG/Lab as they were so angry at FF. Michael Martins soothing tones have obviously been relatively successful thus far in bringing a lot of this cohort back into considering voting for FF again.

What struck me about this poll was the Sindo's reporting of it. I read the accompanying article yesterday and despite Sinn Fein being up 3% (which proportionally is about a 12-14% rise in support) the Sindo treating this as a non-story when it was the biggest single move in the polls. Consequently it was totally ignored like the elephant in the room. This has to be contrasted with a 2012 poll that showed Sinn Fein dropped in support by 4% leading the Sindo to describe it as a "meltdown" and a "collapse in support etc. When the shoe fits and all that....

Death and Taxes

Dob74 wrote: »

http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/seven-out-of-10-unhappy-with-how-country-is-run-29277756.html

FF 26%
FG 23%
SF 19%
Lab 12%
Inp 18%


Conservative party's 49%, Left wing party's 39%.
A general election result like this could mean an end to civil war politics.
FG are starting to take in the neck now.
Can't wait to see the angle the spindo and Denis O'Brien radio puts on these numbers.

Where did you get the 39% Left wing? The three right wing parties FF, Lab, FG, combine at 61%, SF is 19% and not allindependents are by any means left wing Shane Ross, Michael Lowry< Healy Rae etc).
There is no 39% for the loony left in that poll.

Banjo String

Death and Taxes wrote: »

Where did you get the 39% Left wing? The three right wing parties FF, Lab, FG, combine at 61%, SF is 19% and not allindependents are by any means left wing Shane Ross, Michael Lowry< Healy Rae etc).
There is no 39% for the loony left in that poll.

Labour are right wing now?

'The working man's party'

It's plain they've let their grassroots slip, but to describe them as right wing is an exaggeration alright.

Toby Take a Bow

SamHall wrote: »

Labour are right wing now?

'The working man's party'

It's plain they've let their grassroots slip, but to describe them as right wing is an exaggeration alright.

I wouldn't see a huge difference between them and FG or FF, and the fact that they can quite happily join together with whichever majority party would suggest that they don't either.

That their roots are in democratic socialism doesn't mean anything, necessarily, to the party of today. Same goes for (New) Labour in Britain.

djpbarry

Toby Take a Bow wrote: »

I wouldn't see a huge difference between them and FG or FF...

Considering the massive increases in public spending (welfare, in particular) that occurred under FF, they could hardly be described as "right wing".

spank_inferno

there is no "left-wing" or "right-wing" here.

There is only populism.

ideology changes with the winds

Iwasfrozen

Toby Take a Bow wrote: »

I wouldn't see a huge difference between them and FG or FF, and the fact that they can quite happily join together with whichever majority party would suggest that they don't either.

That their roots are in democratic socialism doesn't mean anything, necessarily, to the party of today. Same goes for (New) Labour in Britain.

FF are left wing.

Cody Pomeray

djpbarry wrote: »

Considering the massive increases in public spending (welfare, in particular) that occurred under FF, they could hardly be described as "right wing".

The last time social welfare spending was above 14% of GDP was under a Fine Gael led Government.

The last time social welfare spending fell - and dramatically so - was under a Fianna Fáil government.

Unemployment reached its lowest levels in modern history under a Fianna Fáil led Government.

Not coming to FF defence, just pointing out the ridiculousness of attempting to make economic contrasts between the parties when empirical facts tell another story.

Of course this is all utterly irrelevant. Contrary to what most people seem to believe, unemployment spending in Ireland has traditionally been extremely low by international standards because we export our unemployed anyway.

nesf

Cody Pomeray wrote: »

Of course this is all utterly irrelevant. Contrary to what most people seem to believe, unemployment spending in Ireland has traditionally been extremely low by international standards because we export our unemployed anyway.

What confuses people is our long term unemployment payment is rather high by international standards (our short term one isn't at all, but it being the same as the long term one is part of the problem). The issue is more other countries tend to give you less as a long term unemployed person but do better at giving you more supports and services. Spending per head is higher in some other countries but generally it's spent a lot better than our cash in hand system.

LordSutch

DanDan6592 wrote: »

I'm still bewildered as to why people care about these polls. They change week by week.

Agreed, one week Fine Gael is down two points, next week its up two points, Finna Fain goes up and down too! > Don't know why the OP has
concentrated on Sinn Fein, as two weeks ago they had dropped, now they're up again, and by next week they will hopefully be down agan )

Whats needed is a poll of averages over a six month period (to show party trends).

Cody Pomeray

nesf wrote: »

What confuses people is our long term unemployment payment is rather high by international standards

I'm certainly not going to argue against welfare reform, I'm simply pointing out the futility of constructing some right vs left, FG vs FF distinction. Evidence suggests they are both functionally illiterate and reading off the same hymn sheet.

nesf

Cody Pomeray wrote: »

I'm certainly not going to argue against welfare reform, I'm simply pointing out the futility of constructing some right vs left, FG vs FF distinction. Evidence suggests they are both functionally illiterate and reading off the same hymn sheet.

We have a left in Ireland who've never gotten anywhere close to election. Everyone else is some form of centre. The PDs were fairly right wing economically (for their time in Ireland, not internationally), but socially they started off as liberal as Labour, if not more so.

I've never seen anything from either FF or FG in the past 2 decades that suggests to me they work from a consistent ideological base. FG has a bit of a Christian Right edge to it but it's being subverted from within for quite some time now, ebbing and flowing since before Garrett Fitzgerald to be honest.


Election are usually won by those who best appeal to the centre whilst appeasing their core vote. Irish parties just seem to have cut out the middle man, moved to the centre and either drag or change their core vote to match.

Cody Pomeray

Yes, I agree. I started a thread before here somewhere about why I think this electorally necessary appeal to the centre is tantamount to a great ideological vacuum, policy without purpose, and ultimately the country ends up winging it from crisis to the next crisis.

Depressing, really.

And unlikely to change, short of some great political amalgamation.

nesf

Cody Pomeray wrote: »

Yes, I agree. I started a thread before here somewhere about why I think this electorally necessary appeal to the centre is tantamount to a great ideological vacuum, policy without purpose, and ultimately the country ends up winging it from crisis to the next crisis.

Depressing, really.

And unlikely to change, short of some great political amalgamation.

Unlikely to change until the average voter moves from the centre really. Well, Irish centre seems to be a kind of mutant crossbreed of left and right, "I think we should have loads of services with no charges, I also think I should pay less tax. Go do this."

Cody Pomeray

nesf wrote: »

Unlikely to change until the average voter moves from the centre really

How can the average voter move from the centre?

Surely the centre shifts instead... that's the problem.

There will always be an appeal to the centre in a country this small, using the PR system.

nesf

Cody Pomeray wrote: »

How can the average voter move from the centre?

Surely the centre shifts instead... that's the problem.

There will always be an appeal to the centre in a country this small, using the PR system.

Well, my main point was the latter one, the strange mix of attitudes that makes up what is the Irish centre.

Good loser

Ireland has widespread property ownership - land, houses, commercial. Those without know the ins and outs of property from gossip/friends/relations. Gives them an appreciation of the interactions of supply/demand/price. Will always then be partial to centre right side of the spectrum.

Last election typical - mainstream went FF to FG and is now, fitfully, reversing.

Toby Take a Bow

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

FF are left wing.

djpbarry wrote: »

Considering the massive increases in public spending (welfare, in particular) that occurred under FF, they could hardly be described as "right wing".

I would disagree on the 'left wing' tag, they would be centrist-populist, similar to Labour (centrist-'left'-ist) and FG (centrist-conservative).

Sierra Oscar

Poll shows Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael support level

A new opinion poll for tomorrow's Sunday Business Post shows support for Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil level.

It is the first time in five years that Fine Gael has not been ahead in a Red C poll.

FF - 26% (+1%)
FG - 26% (-2%)
IND - 21% (+1%)
SF - 16% (NC)
Lab - 11% (NC)

Cody Pomeray

Mr.Micro wrote: »

People have the luxury of supporting FF knowing that currently they can do do harm.

I've said this before and I'll say it again, this opinion is naive and uninformed.

Michael Marsh of TCD has a voluminous body of research into Irish opinion polling and why it should be taken seriously. If people don't start believing in the FF upswing, and react accordingly to counter it, there is going to be one hell of a shock in 2016.

Sauntering one's FG colours on this bulletin board isn't impressing anyone nor is it going to change anything. Why do people feel the need to shrink from an honest commentary in the name of party loyalty? Nobody cares.

Sully

There was a new poll out the weekend - I am wondering with the very little fluctuation between them and it not being election season, perhaps a mega thread to keep track would be an idea?

Sierra Oscar

Sully wrote: »

There was a new poll out the weekend - I am wondering with the very little fluctuation between them and it not being election season, perhaps a mega thread to keep track would be an idea?

I think that would be the best idea really, rather than having a discussion thread every time a poll comes out considering there are so many these days and as you said there is no election in the immediate future.

It would also act as a good archive too, perhaps the first post could be updated with a link to each poll.

Mr.Micro

Cody Pomeray wrote: »

I've said this before and I'll say it again, this opinion is naive and uninformed.

Did you miss the word currently in my post. FF are not in Government so currently cannot do any harm.

Cody Pomeray wrote: »

Michael Marsh of TCD has a voluminous body of research into Irish opinion polling and why it should be taken seriously. If people don't start believing in the FF upswing, and react accordingly to counter it, there is going to be one hell of a shock in 2016.

What do you suggest to counter FF, the opposite of trying to fix the economy and go back to unreality? It will be no shock at all. People will vote back in the same incompetents that ruined the country, its tradition.

Cody Pomeray wrote: »

Sauntering one's FG colours on this bulletin board isn't impressing anyone nor is it going to change anything. Why do people feel the need to shrink from an honest commentary in the name of party loyalty? Nobody cares.

By not supporting FF does not make me FG or Labour or SF or whoever. One can see the merits of what the coalition is trying to do in getting the country back on its feet and it does not make one a dyed in the wool FG supporter, and your invalid assumptions.

Scofflaw

Just a reminder not to mount personal attacks, even cunning snide ones - and if you do see a personal attack or sniping match in progress, don't weigh in on it unless you fancy being infracted along with the other participants.

Posts deleted and carded.

moderately,
Scofflaw

Scofflaw

Sully wrote: »

There was a new poll out the weekend - I am wondering with the very little fluctuation between them and it not being election season, perhaps a mega thread to keep track would be an idea?

The suggestion of a running polls thread is a good one, but people will obviously want to discuss the polls - what we could do is a polls sticky with just polls in any post, and separate discussion threads as happens at the moment. You could reference the discussion thread in the poll post, and vice versa.

cordially,
Scofflaw