MONDAY 13TH MAY

fangee

I'm trying to study the 5.20 at Mussleburgh. The ground is soft (depending on where you read your info) and I'm also getting conflicting information on the draw bias over 7 furlongs.

Any expert opinions in here (from experience preferably) ?

I've been to the two main websites that give draw bias info so thats no good as one is saying low draw and the other is saying high draw. Super confused.

ps. Feel free to post one or two winners when replying !

BQQ

Traditionally, it was low on the straight course (5f-6f) and high on the round course (7f-1m), but it was fairly minor in both cases.
On soft ground the low draw bias was a little more evident.

However, in 2011, racing for change (in their wisdom :rolleyes:) decided to reverse the stall numbering on all right-handed courses so that low numbers would always be on the inside rail.
As a result, everything is now reversed.

Confused?

Essentially, the draw bias in minimal and shouldn't put you off backing anything.

Edit: Can't help you with the winners, I'm afraid.

fangee

BQQ wrote: »

Traditionally, it was low on the straight course (5f-6f) and high on the round course (7f-1m), but it was fairly minor in both cases.
On soft ground the low draw bias was a little more evident.

However, in 2011, racing for change (in their wisdom :rolleyes:) decided to reverse the stall numbering on all right-handed courses so that low numbers would always be on the inside rail.
As a result, everything is now reversed.

Confused?

Essentially, the draw bias in minimal and shouldn't put you off backing anything.

Edit: Can't help you with the winners, I'm afraid.

The fact that I've researched it on 3 websites and the all have different opinion really says it all.

SPREAD BOY is the one I've plumped for. 14/1 will do me all day long.

SRFC

Ballymacol think a bit of the filly NORTHERN MEETING in the 6.20 Windsor,its 14/1 will need the run but might run a place if shes as decent as they thought,She's a half sister to Dumbarton who they had high hopes for and won his maiden at Windsor.


Gertrude Grey is also a huge price in the race at 14/1 she's a Hurricane Run out of the mare who produced that good Cecil Mare Chachamadee.

UrbanSea

SRFC wrote: »

Ballymacol think a bit of the filly NORTHERN MEETING in the 6.20 Windsor,its 14/1 will need the run but might run a place if shes as decent as they thought,She's a half sister to Dumbarton who they had high hopes for and won his maiden at Windsor.


Gertrude Grey is also a huge price in the race at 14/1 she's a Hurricane Run out of the mare who produced that good Cecil Mare Chachamadee.

Thanks for that SRFC I remember her being sold a few years ago always wondered where she was, thought she was with John Oxx for some reason

sb78

Bebinn in the 19:30 at Towcester
I've backed her based on her run behind Va'Vite 2 starts ago. She was outclassed last time in a much better race.
Va'vite is only rated 113 but that's still better than all other ratings in this particular race.
Va'vite has run well in two handicaps (I considered backing her yesterday where she finished 2nd), so I thought it was well worth backing Bebinn at the current odds,
The negatives are that there could be a few others in this race that probably have as good a chance, and when I backed her this morning she was 14, but I now notice she has drifted to 25's with 1 firm. So bit of a drifter.
But I still think she's overpriced, all things considered.

rossom

SRFC wrote: »

Ballymacol think a bit of the filly NORTHERN MEETING in the 6.20 Windsor,its 14/1 will need the run but might run a place if shes as decent as they thought,She's a half sister to Dumbarton who they had high hopes for and won his maiden at Windsor.


Gertrude Grey is also a huge price in the race at 14/1 she's a Hurricane Run out of the mare who produced that good Cecil Mare Chachamadee.

This one caught my eye this morning. In addition to the breeding, Stoute won this last year with fellow Ballymacol owned newcomer Sir John Hawkwood so clearly seems like the race has been targeted. Had a dabble on at 16s.

With regards Gertrude Grey, only the very smart Cecil horses win on debut so she'll have to be way about average to win on debut for a trainer who clearly leaves something to work with.

BQQ

rossom wrote: »

With regards Gertrude Grey, only the very smart Cecil horses win on debut so she'll have to be way about average to win on debut for a trainer who clearly leaves something to work with.

True, but they do seem a little more forward than usual this season.
Hot Snap won on its debut and the yard had another juvenile filly win last week @20/1 fto.

realgolfgeek

filled my boots with
MowHoob
in the 4.50 at 7/2

BQQ

realgolfgeek wrote: »

filled my boots with
MowHoob
in the 4.50 at 7/2

Me too, but my boots are small

realgolfgeek

new boots required

BQQ

Romeo is bleeding to win it back in the first at killarney.

I'll be bleeding if it doesn't win :pac:

Luap

Jebel Tara won that very easily despite being bumped many times.

BQQ

fangee wrote: »

The fact that I've researched it on 3 websites and the all have different opinion really says it all.

SPREAD BOY is the one I've plumped for. 14/1 will do me all day long.

unlucky, just missed a place.


winner drawn 12, placed horses drawn 1 and 2. So is it low or high that are favoured again? :pac:

Johner

That Kandinski is the new Champagne Agent. Can't believe I backed it the last day! :rolleyes:

rossom

BQQ wrote: »

True, but they do seem a little more forward than usual this season.
Hot Snap won on its debut and the yard had another juvenile filly win last week @20/1 fto.

Both those two are miles above average! One started favourite for the 1,000 Guineas and the other looks extremely promising and is my idea of the Ribblesdale Winner.

Inspector Coptoor

Northern Meeting finished 4th, just ran out of 3rd

fangee

Inspector Coptoor wrote: »

Northern Meeting finished 4th, just ran out of 3rd

Only just. I think Moore was more than capable of finishing 3rd with a bit more effort. Not very happy that he didn't ride to get the best placing. That's my take on it.

TheMilkyPirate

I've watched back on most of his races and I have a strong feeling Aint got a scooby is still ahead of his mark of 73 here at windsor, Also judging by what I've seen the step up in trip will suit big time. Had a nibble at 6/1

TheMilkyPirate

baraca wrote: »

I've watched back on most of his races and I have a strong feeling Aint got a scooby is still ahead of his mark of 73 here at windsor, Also judging by what I've seen the step up in trip will suit big time. Had a nibble at 6/1

Came there swinging at one stage but didn't find much for pressure, Ah well.

the groutch

Johner wrote: »

That Kandinski is the new Champagne Agent. Can't believe I backed it the last day! :rolleyes:

expect him to hack up over 3 miles (on handicap debut) next time.

Overthelast

Right gamble landed by Hughes/hannon there at Windsor.

Might have a small ew nibble on Ivanhoe in the last at Windsor.

Nice to see irl not the only place being plagued by heavy downpours. Plenty about in the uk today

BQQ

Pipe horse in the bumper at Towcester was bought for 60k after winning a point to point on the bridle.
Henderson horse is fav, but looks average.


Edit: Beaten into 2nd by an Alan King newcomer.

rossom

Great to see Mossey Joe looking like he's getting back to his best. Always loved him but he's never fulfilled the immense promise he threatened to show.

UrbanSea

What lunatics backed Warne into favourite ahead of him

SRFC

De Bromheads first runner for Gigginstown is a winner 11/10 bolted up in the bumper there,he would be a serious challenge to Mullins if he keeps getting horses from jp and o leary.

shy-tall-knight

Hopefully they can get a clear run with Mossey Joe, logical next step would be Stratford to face Salsify. Where would peoples money be there?

SRFC

Salsify would eat him imo beat nothing today once warne didnt run his race it was a penalty kick.

UrbanSea

SRFC wrote: »

Salsify would eat him imo beat nothing today once warne didnt run his race it was a penalty kick.

This says the opposite

http://s7.postimg.org/gzcgg357f/Gfhds.jpg

rossom

I'd be of the exact opposite opinion SRFC. Can see Mossey Joe destroying him. Trust me when I say that Mossey Joe has an absolutely ridiculous engine. He's always been plagued with iffy jumping and an inability to settle. Tonight was the first time I have ever seen him settle properly and his jumping was probably the best I've seen from him as well. Declan McNamara said after racing tonight that they may go to Stratford to face Salsify and that later on the Galway Plate and Kerry National are on the agenda. I'll be backing him every single time wherever he shows up.

cack_handed

Without knowing the precise calibre of opposition, anyone dare to price this potential meeting up? Would be very tempted to have decent bet on Mossey Joe if Salsify was priced up a heavy favourite

rossom

cack_handed wrote: »

Without knowing the precise calibre of opposition, anyone dare to price this potential meeting up? Would be very tempted to have decent bet on Mossey Joe if Salsify was priced up a heavy favourite

I'd say Mossey would go off in and around the 5/2 mark. Salsify would undoubtedly be by far the most popular choice of the punter and could see him getting smashed. Mossey's connections clearly aren't gamblers.

cack_handed

Doubt you are far off there, but have a feeling Mossey would be hugely popular. This time 2 years ago i recall people were touting him as a future gold cup horse and, gamblers or not, the way connections are talking about him now it wouldn't surprise me one bit if he went off favourite ahead of Salsify

SRFC

Going overboard lads he beat a horse today who hasnt won a race in 3 years,3rd horse has never even won a race or got within 12 length's of a winner

Warne never ran his ran and was beaten a mile out aintree just took too much out him,Im not salsify's biggest fan but i'd favour him over Mossey Joe anyday.

rossom

SRFC wrote: »

Going overboard lads he beat a horse today who hasnt won a race in 3 years,3rd horse has never even won a race or got within 12 length's of a winner

Warne never ran his ran and was beaten a mile out aintree just took too much out him,Im not salsify's biggest fan but i'd favour him over Mossey Joe anyday.

He won in a canter by 28L. Doesn't make a difference what was in behind. I've followed Mossey for years and I certainly am not basing one race as my judgement of him. In another life he could easily have won several graded races. I'll let Mossey do the talking on the track though if the meeting happens. Trust me, he's the better horse.

3ndahalfof6

Anyone going to start a tuesday thread, I am no good at it, but I have one horse I would like some feed back on,

SRFC

rossom wrote: »

He won in a canter by 28L. Doesn't make a difference what was in behind. I've followed Mossey for years and I certainly am not basing one race as my judgement of him. In another life he could easily have won several graded races. I'll let Mossey do the talking on the track though if the meeting happens. Trust me, he's the better horse.

That's fair enough he skated in today but he wont do that to decent horses he'll face next.

Huntley

Mossey Joe was never touted as a Gold Cup horse, he was considered an RSA hope but those hacks made a mess of him by running in a hunter chase.

A total lunatic of a horse but an admirable one at that.