Nibali & Le Tour

pelevin

I know it's still early days in the midst of a brilliant Giro, but given Nibali's form & the contrast say with Wiggins, why are Nibali's odds with Ladbrokes 33/1 for the Tour de France, with Wiggins 10/1?

Is Nibali really such a long shot? Do the odds supposedly reflect the difficulty of doing a Giro Tour double? Still much of a newbie to modern pro-cycling so I'll not pretend my ignorance is other than it is.

Edit: And please don't someone go slapping down a grand or two on Nibali slashing the odds before my fiver each way is triumphantly handed over in an hour.

Chips Lovell

Considering he's not planning on racing the Tour at the moment and Wiggo is, then yes, I'd say longer odds are about right.

pelevin

Vladimir Kurtains wrote: »

Considering he's not planning on racing the Tour at the moment and Wiggo is, then yes, I'd say longer odds are about right.

Then why quote any odds on him? Presuming bets are simply lost if a rider fails to enter?

Chips Lovell

Either they don't know he isn't planning on doing it or they're quoting odds on the chance that he changes his mind. Happens a fair bit in cycling, you see odds given on someone who isn't doing a race.

pelevin

So if I take up that bet at those strangely long odds, could argue that the odds reflect the gamble on whether he will enter? That's part of the bet?

manwithaplan

pelevin wrote: »

So if I take up that bet at those strangely long odds, could argue that the odds reflect the gamble on whether he will enter? That's part of the bet?

I think ante-post rules would apply. You don't get your money back if he doesn't take part. Some firms go "no runner no bet" closer to the event but odds on the likes of Nibali would significantly shorten.

Brian?

It would be very unlikely that Nibali has a good showing in the Tour if he does well/wins the giro.

Remember Contador trying to win both a few years ago? And Nibali is no Contador.

Anyway given that Contador is going to win the tour handily, there's no point in betting on anyone else.

DirkVoodoo

pelevin wrote: »

So if I take up that bet at those strangely long odds, could argue that the odds reflect the gamble on whether he will enter? That's part of the bet?

This is the fundamental principle of gambling, maybe you should think about engaging in probabilistic wagering if you don't know how it works.

riparooo

Be careful on putting money on riders whose Tour intentions are not clear, most bookies will not refund if a rider doesn't enter the race.

C-Shore

manwithaplan wrote: »

I think ante-post rules would apply. You don't get your money back if he doesn't take part. Some firms go "no runner no bet" closer to the event but odds on the likes of Nibali would significantly shorten.

I'm pretty sure this is the case.

OP I wouldn't advise you to bet on Nibali.
Even if he does race, I doubt very much that he will contest after going for the Giro.

I would wait until the Tour of California and Tour de Suisse are over before making any judgements on who will ride and/or perform well at the Tour de France.

To be honest, I feel the Tour de France is like the Grand National of cycling. Huge field, lots of donkeys, a crash can ruin the favourites hopes and those who are likely to win aren't worth the risk/return.

The most fun bets for me are stage wins. Gives you something to cheer for on a daily basis rather than watching every stage and hoping your bet doesn't make any mistakes.
Just my two cents anyway.

Paddy Power have a good bet on Dan Martin to win any stage of the Tour and I think that's possible.

Hope I've helped

pelevin

Thanks lads. I'll pass on Nibali so. I'll look into that Dan M Paddy Power tip, thaks C-Shore.

C-Shore

pelevin wrote: »

Thanks lads. I'll pass on Nibali so. I'll look into that Dan M Paddy Power tip, thaks C-Shore.

Did you do it?

pelevin

C-Shore wrote: »

Did you do it?

Eejit that I am, afraid I didn't. Bet on Dan e-w Saturday's stage but after the Sky show then, had no heart to even look at the odds for Sunday. Sagan has my Tour betting looking pretty decent though unless he crashes out. I see he's 8/1 for tomorrow so just to keep things interesting might throw a few euros on him. Don't think I'm willing to go large enough to make e-w worthwhile.

C-Shore

pelevin wrote: »

Eejit that I am, afraid I didn't. Bet on Dan e-w Saturday's stage but after the Sky show then, had no heart to even look at the odds for Sunday. Sagan has my Tour betting looking pretty decent though unless he crashes out. I see he's 8/1 for tomorrow so just to keep things interesting might throw a few euros on him. Don't think I'm willing to go large enough to make e-w worthwhile.

Nooo he was 15/8 to win any stage a few weeks back. I thought about you when he won it yesterday and hoped you had done it. There'll be more in the future though.

Sagan should be safe throughout the tour but his odds were always at evens for the green jersey as soon as betting opened for it.

Yeah Cav probably isn't worth the odds for tomorrow, but Sagan should be up there.
I think Cav will have OPQS doing everything for him to get as many points as possible to stay in contention for green.

pelevin

C-Shore wrote: »

Nooo he was 15/8 to win any stage a few weeks back. I thought about you when he won it yesterday and hoped you had done it. There'll be more in the future though.

Sagan should be safe throughout the tour but his odds were always at evens for the green jersey as soon as betting opened for it.

Yeah Cav probably isn't worth the odds for tomorrow, but Sagan should be up there.
I think Cav will have OPQS doing everything for him to get as many points as possible to stay in contention for green.

I looked the gift-horse in the mouth all right. I thought Sagan was very probable for the Green so threw plenty on him to make it worthwhile. I had Porte at 66/1 e-w from just before Wiggins pulled out, so that was momentarily looking solid, but though I'd have happily enough taken the money tobh I'm happier that the race looks more real after his & Sky's performance yday.

I'd a great Giro with a few bets particularly with Cav & Nibali - I made about 4 to 5 times what I lost - but the Tour's been a bit more of a learning curve.