UKIP do well in English local elections

ardmacha

http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/datablog/2013/may/03/local-elections-results-full

Conservative...1124
Labour.............560
Lib-Dem...........371
UKIP...............147
Other..............237

While the UKIP didn't get a huge vote in the English local elections, they got enough to make the Conservatives concerned.

I think that Conservative party trying to out right wing the UKIP is potentially damaging to Ireland's interests, be it their links in NI or their anti EU stance. Above all the EU needs criticism from someone sceptical, but realistic, but not wrecking from someone implacably opposed.

My name is URL

The way the BBC are going on about this; you'd swear Farage had being elected as Pope.

Just goes to show how uneasy the establishment are at the moment. Speaks volumes really. Cameron coming straight out and apologising for all the times he's offended UKIP and its voters.

Pathetic stuff.

everdead.ie

It will be more interesting to see how they do in Northern Ireland they could be potentially be very damaging to the DUP.

RandomName2

everdead.ie wrote: »

It will be more interesting to see how they do in Northern Ireland they could be potentially be very damaging to the DUP.

UKIP doing well in NI.

Why?

UKIP is very much a party centred in England with a main political philosophy ob being anti-EU.

Both Sinn Fein and the DUP are so staunchly anti-EU it doesn't even require elaboration.

No gap there, I'd say.

Cody Pomeray

NI is a strange parish, which doesn't take kindly to blow ins, so support is unlikely to shift from the DUP.

As the previous poster suggested, the electorate is well covered by the main parties. Whatever Conservative support there is in NI, any level of disillusion with it would barely be enough to keep an alternative party in teabags.

In any case, I get the sense UKIP and the Conservatives look at the Northern Ireland with the same bewilderment as we tend to eye it with in the republic.
The only reason UKIP even have their one MLA in Northern Ireland is because some guy got expelled from an even more obscure party called the Traditional Unionist yada yada yada.

Richard

Cody Pomeray wrote: »

The only reason UKIP even have their one MLA in Northern Ireland is because some guy got expelled from an even more obscure party called the Traditional Unionist yada yada yada.

Actually he had been in the Ulster Unionist Party, although that party may be going into obscurity, too.

There are too many parties within the broad unionist family, and only the DUP are being successful at the moment. The UUP are clinging on, but there's the PUP, TUV as well as independent unionists like Basil McCrea. The Conservatives and UKIP are looking for votes from the same demographic.

Richard

ardmacha wrote: »

http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/datablog/2013/may/03/local-elections-results-full

Conservative...1124
Labour.............560
Lib-Dem...........371
UKIP...............147
Other..............237

While the UKIP didn't get a huge vote in the English local elections, they got enough to make the Conservatives concerned.

I think that Conservative party trying to out right wing the UKIP is potentially damaging to Ireland's interests, be it their links in NI or their anti EU stance. Above all the EU needs criticism from someone sceptical, but realistic, but not wrecking from someone implacably opposed.

A lot of sources have been presenting the above figures without any context. The conservatives appear to be doing very well, but these elections were fought in areas which a traditionally very pro-Tory. It'll be a different story at the European Elections.

Ultimately if the Conservatives shift to the right to thwart UKIP it'll be counterproductive. All UK elections for the last 30 or so years have been won by either the Conservatives or Labour appealing the centre ground. Labour are trying to do that now - the conservatives shifting to the right will only help Labour.

Scofflaw

RandomName2 wrote: »

UKIP doing well in NI.

Why?

UKIP is very much a party centred in England with a main political philosophy ob being anti-EU.

Both Sinn Fein and the DUP are so staunchly anti-EU it doesn't even require elaboration.

No gap there, I'd say.

Perhaps because despite the visibility of their anti-EU stance, UKIP's real appeal is anti-immigration. Being anti-EU is to some extent a logical corollary of that stance, because they're opposed to the EU freedom of movement.

cordially,
Scofflaw

echo beach

Does anybody know what the turnout was in these elections? I can't see it reported in any of the 'results'.
Traditionally turnout in local elections in the UK is low and without knowing the absolute numbers voting it is hard to say of the reports of a major shift are correct or if this is a case of voters for the main parties not bothering to turn out. If so, no firm conclusions can be drawn about what would happen in a general election.

Richard

echo beach wrote: »

Does anybody know what the turnout was in these elections? I can't see it reported in any of the 'results'.
Traditionally turnout in local elections in the UK is low and without knowing the absolute numbers voting it is hard to say of the reports of a major shift are correct or if this is a case of voters for the main parties not bothering to turn out. If so, no firm conclusions can be drawn about what would happen in a general election.

According to http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-22382098 the turnout was 31%, down from 41% the last time these seats were contested.

I'd wager that this turnout greatly helped UKIP.

echo beach

Richard wrote: »

According to http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-22382098 the turnout was 31%, down from 41% the last time these seats were contested.

I'd wager that this turnout greatly helped UKIP.

Thank you for that. I'd agree that the poor turnout benefited UKIP, but I can't understand why this low turnout isn't the key element of the coverage. Why are people so uninterested in politics, particularly at a local level? Seven out of ten people, including a quarter of those who voted the last time, didn't vote for anybody. Apathy has to be declared the big winner.
Unlike in Ireland, local councils in England do have some power to influence the everyday lives of people and to me this lack of engagement is far more worrying than the relatively small number who choose to vote for UKIP.

JustinDee

Apathy in hard times plays into the hands of populist outrage. If the electorate does not vote, it gets the government it deserves. Too late to moan once the inevitable happens if nothing was done to combat it in the first place.

Cavehill Red

Scofflaw wrote: »

Perhaps because despite the visibility of their anti-EU stance, UKIP's real appeal is anti-immigration. Being anti-EU is to some extent a logical corollary of that stance, because they're opposed to the EU freedom of movement.

cordially,
Scofflaw

I'd like to see evidence for that assertion. UKIP, as the party's name and founding documents, not to mention pretty much everything their leader ever talks about, are very firmly about being anti-EU. The Tories and Labour both ran on a platform of limiting future immigration so while the UKIP vote could be interpreted as a protest vote against the major parties, or as a vote against the EU, it can't be read as an anti-immigration vote because at least four parties ran on that platform, and some lost ground while others gained it.

Scofflaw

Cavehill Red wrote: »

I'd like to see evidence for that assertion. UKIP, as the party's name and founding documents, not to mention pretty much everything their leader ever talks about, are very firmly about being anti-EU. The Tories and Labour both ran on a platform of limiting future immigration so while the UKIP vote could be interpreted as a protest vote against the major parties, or as a vote against the EU, it can't be read as an anti-immigration vote because at least four parties ran on that platform, and some lost ground while others gained it.

There's a good analysis paper by a Tory thinktank, aimed at the Tory leadership, trying to analyse how they're losing voters to UKIP - so you need not fear a europhile smear attempt! I'll see if I can dig it up again.

cordially,
Scofflaw

newsunglasses

Why are people so uninterested in politics, particularly at a local level? Seven out of ten people, including a quarter of those who voted the last time, didn't vote for anybody. Apathy has to be declared the big winner.

People don't feel they have any real power,they don't get to decide what issues are up for voting on..They dont feel part of the process..

Democracy is not placed in their hands,it is only in the hands of those who are polticians,and they dont always have the peoples interests at heart.

djpbarry

Cavehill Red wrote: »

I'd like to see evidence for that assertion.

Scofflaw

Which reminds me - this is an analysis by a Tory peer: http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2012/12/the-ukip-threat-is-not-about-europe/

cordially,
Scofflaw

echo beach

Scofflaw wrote: »

Which reminds me - this is an analysis by a Tory peer: http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2012/12/the-ukip-threat-is-not-about-europe/

Thanks for that. Most Interesting I suspect there might be a similar reasoning going on here in support for smaller parties and independents; an attraction to easy, un-costed, options.

Scofflaw

echo beach wrote: »

Thanks for that. Most Interesting I suspect there might be a similar reasoning going on here in support for smaller parties and independents; an attraction to easy, un-costed, options.

I think that in the UK there's also a specific issue with the very bland, on-message, "right-on", only say positive things, don't offend anyone PR culture in the major parties. People feel that push has come to shove, or is about to, and they want to hear plain truths from major party leaders.

Of course, they probably don't, really - UKIP looks like that's what they're doing, but in fact all they're really doing is attributing the problems to external factors (immigrants, the EU, the EHCR) and offering big unrealistic "solutions", each of which is tailored to reinforce a certain jingoistic siege mentality - exclude the "other", get more weapons, push aggressively into global markets once freed of the EU's shackles.

The immigration thing is a very important issue there, just as some sort of concentration on the dangers of foreigners, coupled with an idealisation of the past, has been important in previous crises. Farage is a modern Oswald Moseley, with the message suitably toned down for our more sensitive age but still more "realistic" than the mainstream parties' offerings because at least Farage is talking about what many people invariably see as the problem in lean times.

He's helped, of course, by the fact that he's much more immediately personable than Cameron, who has the charisma of cold blancmange - whereas the competition Moseley faced was rather tougher.

But in all times of crisis, there will be a party or parties offering a retreat to splendid isolation and simpler times when everyone was more like you. That it's UKIP riding the wave rather than, say, the EDL or an actual neo-Nazi outfit reflects the extent to which the UK is a far more PC and successfully racially integrated country than it was.

cordially,
Scofflaw

Robbo

I believe that Nigel's views on Scottish independence went down so well in Edinburgh that he was invited to a traditional pub lock-in.