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Season Bet / Hedge Advice

  • 29-04-2013 11:54am
    #1
    Irish94
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 750 ✭✭✭


    I put €24 on Barcelona, Juventus, Porto, Man United, Bayern Munich, PSG and Celtic to all win their domestic leagues.

    As it stands:
    Man United - Champions
    Celtic - Champions
    Bayern Munich - Champions
    Juventus - 1st, 11 points ahead (4 games remaining).
    PSG - 1st, 9 points ahead (4 games remaining).
    Barcelona - 1st, 11 points ahead (5 games remaining).
    Porto - 2nd, 1 point behind Benfica (3 games remaining, Benfica have a game in hand).

    As you can see Porto are the only team letting me down. Benfica and Porto both have not lost a game yet in the league. But Porto are playing Benfica at home in the 2nd last game of the season. I need Porto to win their remaining games and hope that Benfica lose too Porto and draw/lose another game.

    The only choice I can think of is Porto Outright - 2/7, which is not great odds.

    I would appreciate any advice or help anyone can offer me. Thanks.

    Here is an image of the bet.
    SeasonBet_zps9186a6fb.png


Comments

  • #2
    DB74
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 559 ✭✭✭DB74


    I don't see what you can do here TBH, other than hedge by backing Benfica outright

    Benfica at 1/4 (VC-Bet) actually looks a good price, given that they are 4 points clear with 3 games left. Porto are 7/1 elsewhere so that 1/4 won't last long as it's an 8% arb and the 1/4 is actually out of line with the odds at other bookies (next best 1/7)

    Stick €100 on that, worst case scenario is get your stake back (unless one of the other 3 collapse which is unlikely)


  • #3
    DB74
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 559 ✭✭✭DB74


    Hope you didn't take my advice given that Benfica screwed up on Monday night, only drawing 1-1 at home against Estoril. Porto have 2 tough matches left, home to Benfica and away to 3rd-placed Pacos Ferreira on the last day of the season. At least it's in their hands anyway.


  • #4
    Irish94
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 750 ✭✭✭Irish94


    Thanks for the advice DB74.

    I put €100 on Benfica to win the league @1.72.

    Tonight is the big match, hopefully Porto will win. Fingers crossed.


  • #5
    Irish94
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 750 ✭✭✭Irish94


    Porto 2 - 1 Benfica.

    Final day today. Hopefully Porto will do the business.


  • #6
    The Rooster
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,759 ✭✭✭The Rooster


    Irish94 wrote: »
    Porto 2 - 1 Benfica.

    Final day today. Hopefully Porto will do the business.

    What was the combined odds of your accumulator?


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  • #7
    Irish94
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 750 ✭✭✭Irish94


    The Rooster wrote: »
    What was the combined odds of your accumulator?

    Only noticed this now, I won €1,036. So the odds were around 43/1 :)


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