International support for Syria's rebels is dwindling

cyberhog

The "Friends of Syria" met in December 12 2012 in Marrakech, and 114 countries attended the meeting.
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/world/2012-12/12/c_132036841.htm

The "Friends of Syria" met again on April 20 2013 in Istanbul, and this time only 11 countries were there to support the rebels.
http://www.voanews.com/content/kerry-promises-to-double-us-aid-to-syrian-opposition/1645819.html


Meanwhile the Syrian Army continues to make major gains:

In the course of two days, the Syrian army took over most of the territory surrounding the strategic town of Qusayr, cutting off the opposition’s supply lines from nearby Lebanon.

The Syrian army continued to make advances against opposition forces, this time in the strategic area of Rif Qusayr along both banks of the Assi River near the border with Lebanon.

Qusayr has played a key role in the conflict due to its proximity to the Lebanese border, where weapons, supplies, and fighters are smuggled through the rugged hills near the Lebanese town of Ersal.

For months now, the opposition has had complete control of the city of Qusayr, with an ability to reach north to Homs and south to the northern suburbs of Damascus, where government forces are waging ferocious battles with the opposition...


The situation began to change around ten days ago when the Syrian military took the area of Nabi Mando, which not only overlooks most of Rif Qusayr but also contains a bridge connecting the two banks of the river. They also managed to take the town of Ibil to the north, effectively cutting Qusayr off from Homs...

At the same time as the Qusayr operation, the Syrian army carried out a similar offensive to the southwest of Damascus, where again the opposition lost ground and took some heavy casualties. Here again, the military’s objective is to cut off the smuggling of weapons coming from opposition-held areas in the Golan to fighters in the capital’s suburbs.

According to close observers, these military operations are part of an overall plan to cut off the opposition’s supply lines from Lebanon in the west, Jordan in the south, and Turkey in the north, while at the same time expanding what the regime is calling a “secure zone,” starting with the areas around Damascus and Homs.

http://english.al-akhbar.com/content/syrian-army-surrounds-strategic-town-qusayr


It would seem the writing is on the wall for the opposition, and it's only a question of how long it's going to take.

[MOD]This OP is factually inaccurate, and one of quite a series of similar threads, likewise often of dubious accuracy. I'm not sure why we've been chosen to be part of a propaganda effort on behalf of the Syrian government, but I think we've had enough of it.

Three day ban for basically abusing the forum.[/MOD]

Norwesterner

Fantastic news.
Couldn't understand Irish folk supporting these thugs in Syria.
They are no different to the nut-jobs in Iraq, Yemen, Dagestan, Chechnya, Afghanistan, or Pakistan.
Some Irish Times reporters were a thundering disgrace, and should resign from journalism in my opinion, given their complete lack of impartiality and insight.
I see of the 11 "Friends of Syria" left, first on the agenda was to buy cheap oil from rebel controlled areas.
Some kind of "Oil for Arms" programme.

Jonny7

Tragic horrific situation

An illegimate leader and his family determined to drive their country into a blood-soaked nightmare rather than let go of power

The opposition, started like many in the Arab spring, pushed to violence, but now so diluted with foreign groups and foreign interests

And to cap it all off, these idiotic cheerleading threads once a month

VinLieger

Supporting the rebels is basically supporting a Muslim Brotherhood controlled government so its hardly surprising support is dwindling

AlekSmart

Jonny7 wrote: »

Tragic horrific situation

An illegimate leader and his family determined to drive their country into a blood-soaked nightmare rather than let go of power

The opposition, started like many in the Arab spring, pushed to violence, but now so diluted with foreign groups and foreign interests

And to cap it all off, these idiotic cheerleading threads once a month

Ah c'mon Jonny7,you quite happily engage in every bit as much cheerleading for whichever "Revolutionary" cause is on offer in any given month.

I would however,be a bit slower to weigh in behind Cyberhog's interpretation of the "Freinds of Syria" business as in this region,the term "Friend" is somewhat elastic and instantly transformable into enemy.

I would be more concerned with the continuing messing about on the fringes which the U.S. attempts to dress up in "Non-Lethal" terminology,as if that made it more palatable to the other less committed major powers...

http://www.rte.ie/news/2013/0421/383590-us-to-double-non-lethal-aid-to-syrian-rebels/

The is indeed a brutal Civil War going on,but it's obvious that Al Assad has enough continuing support along with military resources to contest this "Popular" revolution.

Either the popularity of the cause is enough to oust the brutal dictator OR it's not....IF it's not then perhaps the fringe supporters need to reassess why and who they are supporting ?

brimal

Interesting development..

Israel confirms Syria regime used chemical weapons against rebels

"To the best of our professional understanding, the regime has used lethal chemical weapons on a number of occasions, including the incident on March 19," the head of the Research Division at Military Intelligence, Brig. Gen. Itai Baron, said at conference of the Institute for National Security Studies.

He went on to address the characteristics that led IDF Military Intelligence to this conclusion, photographs taken of the affected areas after the attacks, including depictions of foam coming out of the mouths of Syrians in the area of the attacks.

Brun added that the Israeli intelligence community believed that the chemical weapon used was sarin-based.

http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/israel-confirms-syria-regime-used-chemical-weapons-against-rebels.premium-1.517077

Cork boy 55

OP Fact check

Where is the evidence that many nations have left the Friends of Syria Group
only that is growing Ireland has joined
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Friends_of_Syria_Group

The last A Major Conference of the friends of Syria group was 1st April 2013
Attending by 70 countries Foreign ministers
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-17576134

This meeting YOU refer to in your second link on the 20th April 2013 Is a core group meeting at which the USA announced a Major increase in non-lethal AID to insurgency

Foreign ministers from the "core group" of the Friends of Syria will meet at the Adile Sultan Palace at 6 p.m. local time to discuss the crisis in Syria.

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/world/2013-04/20/c_132326212.htm

If an anything support is growing for example the recent deployment of large numbers of Croatian built RAK 12 MRL on the battlefield by insurgents

Regarding the SAA gain at the town of al-Qusayr this is a minor victory and comes on the foot of the loss of an nearby AIRBASE last week, The town is still in rebel hands.
Also this is victory was only possible because of the support of khomeini fighters of Hezbollah
The trend on the battlefield is of steady Defeats of the SAA mainly in east and north along with occasional l SAA victory mainly in the west
The marco trend is towards stalemate and partition
Current Sit-rep
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cities_and_towns_during_the_Syrian_civil_war


The OP claims that the friends of Syria is collapsing and Assad fascistic clan the so called Syria Arab Army is making "major gains" and is going to win the war("writing is on the wall ") are clearly demonstrably false.

Norwesterner

Corkboy, what has destroying churches and Shia Mosques , kidnapping Bishops, firing shells into Lebanon, and forcing children to behead prisoners got to do with overthrowing the President?
The FSA will fail as they they have failed to gain the support of the people.
Damascus proper is not rising up.
The Army in general have stayed loyal, as have the police.
The citizens of Aleppo left as soon as the FSA moved in.
They are becoming more reliant on foreign fighters and child soldiers.
Their leadership live outside of Syria (normally in Turkish villas)
They don't even have a centralized leadership.
They have ZERO chance of defeating the Syrian Army and people without NATO help (as in Libya).
And if NATO does step in, they will simply convert the Syrian Army, police, and 9 million who voted For Assad into the new insurgency.

hatrickpatrick

If the majority of the people want Assad gone, he should go. Simple as that. Until I see any actual evidence contradicting what seems to be a fact - that at the moment, most of the people don't support his regime - I'm not going to condemn the rebels. And I find it hard to see why anyone else would.

AlekSmart

Norwesterner wrote: »

Corkboy, what has destroying churches and Shia Mosques , Kidnapping Bishops, firing shells into Lebanon, and forcing children to behead prisoners got to do with overthrowing the President?
The FSA will fail as they they have failed to gain the support of the people.
Damascus proper is not rising up.
The Army in general have stayed loyal, as have the police.
The citizens of Aleppo left as soon as the FSA moved in.
They are becoming more reliant on foreign fighters and child soldiers.
Their leadership live outside of Syria (normally in Turkish villas)
They don't even have a centralized leadership.
They have ZERO chance of defeating the Syrian Army and people without NATO help (as in Libya).
And if NATO does step in, they will simply convert the Syrian Army, police, and 9 million who voted For Assad into the new insurgency.

The problem I have with so much of this stuff,is the assurances we constantly recieve that the Leader involved is hated by all of his people.

Such definitives are rarely true of Human Nature,but for sure,Al Assad has substantial support at many levels of what remains of Syrian Society.

What are we,Western Observers (and Syrian experts to a man) supposed to make of this support base ?

Should we support their liquidation ?

Should we support every "Arab Spring" Revolt,in the faint hope of reinvigorating some 1960's revolutionary ethos ?

As the Libyan adventure proved,it took substantial time and resources to motivate the greater populace into rebellion,so too with Egypt,both countries still struggling to embrace the bounties brought by Popular Revolt...?

My take is that the Syrian Government still has the level of support to continue in power,it knows it's enemy,and unlike Gadaffi finds no need to embark on prime-time TV pre-emptive "Cockroach" lectures concerning it's intentions.

Unless the UN/NATO can again find an alliance to fashion a resolution,then we can only remain onlookers into this very unstable region ?

Jonny7

Norwesterner wrote: »

Corkboy, what has destroying churches and Shia Mosques , kidnapping Bishops, firing shells into Lebanon, and forcing children to behead prisoners got to do with overthrowing the President?

Just to note - this is not how it began, the Free Syrian Army used to be a much more dignified Syrian opposition made up of the likes of blue-collar workers, university students, and defected military horrified at government tactics in oppressing the dissent.. with the generally recognised goal of overthrowing an unpopular 40 year family dynasty (also the underlying friction of Shia ruling minority, Sunni majority)

To use a very rough analogy: what was once the dogged French resistance challenging the might of the Third Reich has evolved into a different beast entirely, now more akin to the bitterness and horror of the Eastern front of the second World War, a never-ending escalation of worsening tactics.

Now, like Iraq, the foreign fighters and groups have come flooding in, not all neccessarily to "save" Syria - but some for their own agenda, and like Iraq, some of these groups use such hideous tactics that it's hard to see or even know which side can be seen as having any moral upper hand.

Yes the buck stops with Assad - but even if he falls tomorrw, the country is so deeply fractured at the most fundamental social level.. has witnessed so much depravity.. it's going to take decades to iron out, if ever, the revenge, retribution, hatred. Ironically I think it's this horror that will eventually end the civil war, either that or the world will simply have to step in akin to Yugoslavia

hatrickpatrick

^ In my view the world should've stepped in long before now. In fairness they tried only to be inexplicably blocked by Russia, an explanation for which was never really discussed but what I seem to remember reading at the time was that the Russians have a huge vested interest in the arms trade with Assad's regime or something to that effect?

G Power

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

^ In my view the world should've stepped in long before now. In fairness they tried only to be inexplicably blocked by Russia, an explanation for which was never really discussed but what I seem to remember reading at the time was that the Russians have a huge vested interest in the arms trade with Assad's regime or something to that effect?

iirc russia and others were also opposed to the change in tactics surrounding the libya invasion by UN/Nato so I have to ask why would they listen to them now and not back then??

Norwesterner

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

If the majority of the people want Assad gone, he should go. Simple as that. Until I see any actual evidence contradicting what seems to be a fact - that at the moment, most of the people don't support his regime - I'm not going to condemn the rebels. And I find it hard to see why anyone else would.

they had an election last year.
The FSA and opposition called for a complete boycott of the election by the populace.
As it happened, (and in the middle of total war) 52% of the populace came out ignored the opposition boycott and snipers, and voted for Establishment parties.
Given that the Army and police are banned from voting (to stay non-political).
And that a sizable portion was ohysically unable to vote due to living in Jordan or Lebanon.
I'd say it's up closer to 75plus% who potentially would've voted..
more than double the turnout in East Meath.
People greatly overestimate the popularity of the FSA and totally underestimate the popularity of the Govt. and the Army.

Recent online poll last month within Syria showed 55% want Assad to remain in power.

omega666

The hypocrisy from the US is unbelievable,
They had no problem supplying Iraq with chemical weapons and supported their use during the Iran - Iraq war. Even going as far to blocking a resolution brought to the UN by Iran. And people wonder why Iran hate's the US.


Use of chemical weapons by Iraq
The official CIA estimate did not include the civilian population contaminated in bordering towns or the children and relatives of veterans, many of whom have developed blood, lung and skin complications, according to the Organization for Veterans of Iran. According to a 2002 article in the Star-Ledger, 20,000 Iranian soldiers were killed on the spot by nerve gas. As of 2002, 5,000 of the 90,000 survivors continue to seek regular medical treatment, while 1,000 are hospital inpatients.[148][149]
According to Iraqi documents, assistance in developing chemical weapons was obtained from firms in many countries, including the United States, West Germany, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, and France.

Diplomatic support
See also: Prevention of Genocide Act of 1988
In 1984, Iran introduced a draft resolution to the United Nations Security Council, citing the Geneva Protocol of 1925, condemning Saddam Hussein's use of chemical weapons on the battlefield. In response, the United States instructed its delegate at the UN to lobby friendly representatives in support of a motion to take "no decision" on the use of chemical munitions by Iraq. If backing to obstruct the resolution could be won, then the U.S. delegation were to proceed and vote in favour of taking zero action; if support were not forthcoming, the U.S. delegate were to refrain from voting altogether.

Tony EH

Norwesterner wrote: »

they had an election last year.
The FSA and opposition called for a complete boycott of the election by the populace.
As it happened, (and in the middle of total war) 52% of the populace came out ignored the opposition boycott and snipers, and voted for Establishment parties.
Given that the Army and police are banned from voting (to stay non-political).
And that a sizable portion was ohysically unable to vote due to living in Jordan or Lebanon.
I'd say it's up closer to 75plus% who potentially would've voted..
more than double the turnout in East Meath.
People greatly overestimate the popularity of the FSA and totally underestimate the popularity of the Govt. and the Army.

Recent online poll last month within Syria showed 55% want Assad to remain in power.

And when coupled with those who aren't necessarily pro-Assad, but certainly don't want to see these "rebels" in power, the % of "rebel" support dwindles even further.

Norwesterner

Tony EH wrote: »

And when coupled with those who aren't necessarily pro-Assad, but certainly don't want to see these "rebels" in power, the % of "rebel" support dwindles even further.

Yes, of course.
There are Syrian opposition members in the Parliament who use debate to push for further reforms and condemn the terrorism from NATO mercenaries.
Rather than the E.U and US back these peaceful opposition members, they've decided to back camp followers of Al Qaeda.
I think Assad will quietly go when he feels he has broken the terror campaign and his people are no longer under threat.
I think he wants to go to be honest.
Then he will hand over power to his Vice President or Prime Minister (both moderate Sunnis), pending the referendum he has planned.

cyberhog

Cork boy 55 wrote: »

The OP claims that the friends of Syria is collapsing and Assad fascistic clan the so called Syria Arab Army is making "major gains" and is going to win the war("writing is on the wall ") are clearly demonstrably false.

You are wrong.

Even if we exclude the core group meeting from the discussion and use the meeting you linked my point is still valid. 114 countries down to 70 is proof that the friends of Syria club is shrinking.

At any rate, the countries that are still in the club are delievering nothing new for the rebels.

a close look at the demands of the Syrian coalition to the friends of Syria show that they have achieved almost no concrete accomplishment from this meeting in Istanbul

http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2013/04/syrian-opposition-radical-elements-wester-arms.html

The point I made about Syria's gains is also accurate.

In the past few weeks, government forces have launched major offensives in Homs, Idlib, Kurdish-populated areas and in and around Aleppo and the capital Damascus. It is evidently clear that the military balance on the ground is tilting back toward government forces again after a counteroffensive.

http://www.todayszaman.com/blogNewsDetail_getNewsById.action?newsId=313825&columnistId=131

So your so-called fact check is an epic fail!

Cork boy 55

cyberhog wrote: »

You are wrong.

Even if we exclude the core group meeting from the discussion and use the meeting you linked my point is still valid. 114 countries down to 70 is proof that the friends of Syria club is shrinking.

Ohhhh

(1)
The groups did not shrink to 70 countries
(2)
The meeting was attended by all countries
(3)
The meeting was attended by 70 FOREIGN ministers
(4)
Can you name one country which was left the group?

cyberhog wrote: »

The point I made about Syria's gains is also accurate.

Your points?
"Meanwhile the Syrian Army continues to make major gains:"
"It would seem the writing is on the wall for the opposition, and it's only a question of how long it's going to take."

They have not made "major gains" they made some minor tactical victories on some fronts no amount of google wagging, cheery-picking articles and quote mining them is going to change the situation on the battlefront.
They are still slowly losing everywhere else and as we will see next week in this see-saw war of attrition a "SAA" victory is followed by bigger defeat elsewhere
mainly because Assad gangs have so few units that can actually fight and he was to move them around.

"writing is not on the wall"
How exactly? Show one Syrian commentator that things the Government can win military?

cyberhog wrote: »

So your so-called fact check is an epic fail!

Why?

Norwesterner

The Syrian Army are gaining the upper hand and are killind Jihadis by the score.
This is why the U/S and Israel are playing the new card of "chemical attack".
A media invention to provide military aid to the extremists.
On the dwindling support topic, it was mentioned by some Irish/Libyan terrorists recently that they were refused entry to Turkey.
Families in Tunisia and Libya are also petitioning the Authorities to clamp down on terrorist recruiters operating from Mosques and sending young citizens to their deaths in Syria.
Some of these recruiters are becoming wealthy men, as they actually charge up to 1000 dollars for any fighters wishing to go.
This well of fighters is not infinite, and many are returning disillusioned or crippled.

cyberhog

Cork boy 55 wrote: »

Why?

Well for one thing you can't even get the dates right.

Cork boy 55 wrote: »

The last A Major Conference of the friends of Syria group was 1st April 2013
Attending by 70 countries Foreign ministers
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-17576134

That meeting took place in 2012.

Look, to avoid any further confusion I'm going to list all the meetings in chronological order for you.

The group met for the first time on February 24 2012 in Tunisia:

Representatives of more than 70 nations have gathered for a “Friends of Syria” conference in the Tunisian capital...

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2012/02/201222415140240588.html

The group met for the second time on April 1 2012 in Istanbul:

Representatives of the 70-plus nations comprising the group decided to recognize the Syrian National Council, the largest opposition body...

http://www.haaretz.com/news/middle-east/friends-of-syria-conference-in-turkey-ends-with-list-of-declarations-few-concrete-decisions-1.421990

The group met for the third time on July 6 2012 in Paris:

Over 100 countries have sent delegations to the third meeting of "Friends of Syria" held in Paris..

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/world/2012-07/06/c_131700220.htm


The group met for the fourth time on December 12 2012 in Marrakech:

The 114 states attending the conference as well as 15 NGOs, meanwhile, expressed their serious concern regarding the dire situation of the internally displaced people...

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/world/2012-12/12/c_132036841.htm


The group met for the fifth time on February 28 2013 in Rome:

ROME -- Friends of the Syrian People Group "core" meeting held with the participation of representatives from 11 countries in the Italian capital of Rome, has ended.

http://www.turkishweekly.net/news/147657/friends-of-syria-pledge-support-to-opposition.html


The group met for the sixth time on April 20 2013 in Istanbul:

In a joint statement by the 11 countries attending the Friends of Syria meeting in Istanbul, extreme concern was expressed over the Syria conflict

http://www.voanews.com/content/kerry-promises-to-double-us-aid-to-syrian-opposition/1645819.html

So as you can see all of the meetings in 2012 had big participations but in 2013 we've only got this "core group" of countries taking part. That certainly seems to suggest that support for the rebels has diminished as more facts about the extremist nature of the opposition are brought to light.

Take this new report from the NYT for example.

Nowhere in rebel-controlled Syria is there a secular fighting force to speak of... The Islamist character of the opposition reflects the main constituency of the rebellion...

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/28/world/middleeast/islamist-rebels-gains-in-syria-create-dilemma-for-us.html?_r=1&pagewanted=all&

This is why the number of countries involved in the Friends of Syria meetings has shrunk in 2013. Because most of the world does not want to be seen to be supporting Islamist rebels aligned with Al Qaeda. So it's definitely not looking good for the rebels right now and unless the West intervenes I think Assad will have this one in the bag.

Norwesterner

President Assad received almost 9 million votes from Syrian citizens in 2010.

The Western designated FSA "Prime Minister" Ghassan Hitto received 35 votes in a closed meeting in Turkey.
He is a Texas citizen and does not even carry a Syrian passport.

Arab Spring my a#se.
Put Hitto in the 2014 Syrian elections and see who the Syrian people vote for.