English League Two relegation-calculation advice please

dinneenp

Hi,
update to post- I just realise now that only 2 teams get relegated so it makes it much easier for me to calculate.

Bettingzone tipped Dangenham to be relegated at 50/1 before the weekend. I put €20 on it.

They lost and other results went my way so there's a much bigger chance than 50/1 that they'll go down now, 15/2.

So I can either hope, win €1,000, lay them or spread my bets to try to max my return.
Wimbledon 10/11
Barnet 12/5
York 7/1
Dagenham 7/1
Plymouth 40/1
Toruay 100/1

Torquay 45 13 13 19 -7 52
Plymouth 45 13 13 19 -8 52
York 45 11 19 15 -11 52
Dag & Red 45 13 12 20 -6 51
Barnet 45 13 12 20 -10 51
AFC Wimb 45 13 11 21 -23 50
Aldershot 45 11 15 19 -16 48

If anyone can tell me what amount to bet on each team that'll give me best return I'd be very appreciative.
Cheers,
Pa.

DB74

No point in backing all the other teams, it's already a 97% book without Dagenham so the benefit is zero

It's a bit of a mess down there TBH so personally I'd try and keep it simple and lay Dagenham, which gives you 2 options (well actually 2 extremes but loads of in-between options) - both options below ignore exchange commission

1. Lay Dagenham at 8.0 to get your €20 back, cost you €140 of your €1,000 winnings if they do end up going down

2. Lay Dagenham at 8.0 for €127.50 (your liability €892.50) - guarantee profit of ~ €100 whether they stay up or go down

After that it's up to yourself whether you want to guarantee some profit but win more if they do go down etc.

alkev

Bear in mind because of the dag v York fixture Wimbledon will stay up if they win at home on saturday

dinneenp

alkev wrote: »

Bear in mind because of the dag v York fixture Wimbledon will stay up if they win at home on saturday

I don't get why Wimbledon are such short odds to go down.
They're playIng a team with 'nothing to play for' even if they're 11/12th in league.
They're short odds to win but also favourites to go down.

dinneenp

Was trying to figure out last night could I make a guaranteed return. It's frying my head...
Think I'll just stick to my original bet...

What can make Dag stay up
a. Dag win (7/5)
b. Dag win or draw (2/5)& Wim lose or draw (Fleetwood win or draw EVENS)
(16/10)
c. Dag win or draw (2/5) & Barnet lose or draw (Northam win or draw 4/9)
(EVENS)
d. Dag lose (2/1), Barnet lose (5/4), Wim lose or draw (Fleetwood win or draw evens) (8/1)
ALSO HAVE TO BET
Torqauy to get relegated 100/1
Plymouth to get relegated 40/1
 
Possible Outcomes-
1. Dag win UP 7/5 (a) & possible more
2. Dag win, barnet win. UP EVENS (a), DOWN EVENS (c). (DRAW)
3. Dag win, Barnet draw or lose. UP EVENS (a), UP EVENS (c) (UP 2/1)
4. Dag draw, Barnet win (down evens (a) & down ( c)
also could win 1000 if Wimbledon win.
5. Dag draw, Barnet draw (down evens (1), up evens (c ) ) DRAW
6. Dag lose, Barnet draw. (down a, down down c Could be up 1000 if Wim win
7. Dag win, Wimb win UP 7/5 (a) down b.
8. Dag win Wim lose or draw Up 7/5 (a) UP 16/10 (b)
9. Dag draw, Wim win DOWN A, DOWN B. Could win 1000 if Barnet draw
10. Dag draw, wim lose or draw (down A, up up 6/10

dinneenp

Reading timeline from from yesterday. Dag in relegation zone at 4:27. 4:28 Roy o Donovan, ex Cork city scored so dag out of relegation. Lost the bet