Super levy 2013/14

stanflt

Was talking to 2 spring men yesterday that are feeding on avg 4kg more per head than any other year and their still delivering 1000litre less per collection. Both have around 120 cows.


Can't see there being a super levy can you?


Personally cows are milking extremely well here at 32.87 litres @ 4.1 fat and 3.38 protein how ever with only 3 weeks silage left and 10 days maize and only 9 more days on the first rotation I'm worried that the wheels will fall off the cart dramatically

How are people doing

mahoney_j

On super levy for this year 2013/14 a few weeks ago i would of said it could be a massive issue come late summer early autumn due to all the extra stock that calved down this spring.But now i think i might be tempted to go 10 to 15% over and chabce it.Lack of grass poor quality silage and cows in poor body condition over the last few weeks will have put a serious dent on production for a lot of people.But we are only 2 weeks into a new quota year and grass is finally starting to grow and if we get a good summer,back end and spring i reckon a good bit of the defecit could be clawed back as cash flow is soo tight for a lot of farmers and the predicted good milk price for the year.
My own cows milking extrfemely well considering at 30.56 ltrs at 4.01 fat and 3.32 protein.Calving finished a week ago and cows in great condition and comming in heat strong.Nos hortgage of silage but grass fairly tight,The tide is starting to turn though.If growth is good for the next week i reckon i may be able to take silage out by the end of next week

mf240

Milk lorry driver says milk is way behind last year. We're back a nice bit ourselves only that I still have some bales from last may we would be back more.

But I suppose if the grass grows and milk is a good price you'd never know.

If someone told me this time last year that Ireland would fail to fill the 2012/2013 quota I would of laughed at him.

Timmaay

I personally think its far to early to call yet, even despite the very poor start, if we get a good summer/autumn and an early start next year, combined with the decent milk prices it could send us over very quick. Of course the opposite could happen just as easy with the weather, lets not go there!

mahoney_j wrote: »

On super levy for this year 2013/14 a few weeks ago i would of said it could be a massive issue come late summer early autumn due to all the extra stock that calved down this spring.

On this point of extra stock, I don't actually think that would have too much an effect, if there is a strong chance of a superlevy looming later in the year, lads will use the strong cull cow price as an opportunity to reduce their herd age, with the resulting heifers producing less milk than the replacement culls, so on balance that should even out.

Timmaay

mf240 wrote: »

If someone told me this time last year that Ireland would fail to fill the 2012/2013 quota I would of laughed at him.

I'll agree there fully, I guess we were all wayyyy ahead of ourselves with all this expansion talk. I suppose the one positive we should all draw from the desperate summer and spring we have just had is that expansion cannot happen unless we have the basics right and can cover ourselves for all extremes. Teagasc and the rest of the experts have be telling us that we need to face into a future of volatile milk prices and tight cashflow, of equal importance is volatile weather and feed supplies.

kevthegaff

please god there is no superlevy! the costs are high as it is:(

delaval

I agree a bit too early to call quota but all signs are that it won't be filled.
Extra stock are all heifers and they won't do much to fill the tank, in fact I'd say a lot of them are of questionable quality.
Our cows are doing very well Autumn calvers 17litres spring calvers 26 litres at Fat 4.09 pro 3.42 and plenty of bulling activity.
Feed 6 kg 12%p nut last feed of hulls today and no silage since calving
3% left to calve all outside and springing.
Had 2 cows with tetney this week. Will start dusting now for breeding season.
Heifer ai starts 22 of this month.
Growth ok about 30 I guess we will release brakes and removed break fence this evening, we will hold meal at 6 for another few days and gradually reduce to zero as growth picks up.

mf240

strange that your having tetany with that amount of dairy nuts.

This is no way a loaded question but did I read somewhere that jerseys dont suffer from milk fever?

delaval

mf240 wrote: »

strange that your having tetany with that amount of dairy nuts.

This is no way a loaded question but did I read somewhere that jerseys dont suffer from milk fever?

Never saw a Jex with fever but the ones with tetney were both Jex and were mad in heat

milkprofit

every one says they are going to gamble this year to make up for lost income
BEAWARE

keep going

there are a number of questions.do people think that peak has been affected by the conditions so far-personally i dont think so.we dont know what the weather will be like so that impossible to predict.word has it that milk price will be good and ration prices are set to fall.if silage stocks are low it might make sence to milk on and try and get back the ration you put in instead of feeding them dry on silage.i dont think there is as much culling as that to be done-alot of it has been done the past couple of years.so i predict there will be super levy aside from serious weather events

kevthegaff

think theres another 1% increase this year so that should help ontop of no growth, poor condition of some stock, ration prices. Arrabawn were 3.7 under so i think they will be ok considering some of theyre producers are in the west who must be under pressure growth wise. May should tell alot, i have a good few late calvers this year including one at the minute! so im glad in one way but it will be difficult to get them back in calf for next year

jomoloney

Arrabawn 7% down on first 3 weeks

dar31

there is still a very real possibility of a superlevy this year, as lads will try and recover some of the costs of the spring gone out.

14/15 could be a different story altogether as a lot of stock with low bcs, heifers bulled inside, poor nutrition going forward will contribute to poor submission rates and and poor 6 wk calving figures.
15 could prove a long drawn out affair with less stock calving in and a more drawn out calving spread.
after a large cull on the national herd two years ago, and a cull on surplus/ unwanted stock this year due to lack of feed, the supposed flush of heifers coming through will just be absorbed into the herd.

this year is nearly over, all we can do now is manage the situation,

what plans have any one for 14/15!!!!!

Timmaay

A later calving pattern in spring 2015 might save you a superlevy in 14/15?, as it would mean less milk in the tank in feb/March 2015. Would only be of a benefit to the liquid milk men who will be milking on in the winter anyway, but one possible upshot if you're calving pattern did end up dragged out.

kevthegaff

jomoloney wrote: »

Arrabawn 7% down on first 3 weeks

lovely:D

keep going

well people whats the situation now around the country

whelan1

keep going wrote: »

well people whats the situation now around the country

very depressing:cool:

kevthegaff

think arrabawn was 10% under for April not 7% which is some good news i suppose. Mine are peaking at the moment and arent producing what they did last year. Im a hundred percent certain theyll be no superlevy

Timmaay

Almost the same as last year for April, and am about 10% up on May so far (early may last yr was brutal in fairness!). Cow numbers similar this year, but a good few more heifers now! Still too early to call anything yet in my view, but superlevy looking less lightly for sure.

mcgyvor

i wouldnt rule out levy yet only 6wks of year gone yet .if all this extra stock is there gap could easily be made up+ guys will take the risk when milk price is well over the levy

keep going

any word on glanbia/dairygold,west cork is rising fast and on quota at the end of april

Tipp Man

Way too early to say if there will be a superlevy or not. We are only 6 weeks into the new year. The whole thing could change in a matter of days

I know that Glanbia saw a huge increase in milk with the good weather the week before last - although it has pulled back in the last few days

We are currently working on the basis that there will be a levy - but far too early to say