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AIB to go the way of Bank of Cyprus & Laika?

Comments

  • #2
    Nino Brown
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,507 ✭✭✭Nino Brown


    There's already a thread on this

    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=84107315

    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056922926

    I don't think AIB are the worst of European banks, they wont be the first to fall.


  • #3
    Skr4wny
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 229 ✭✭Skr4wny


    Cheers, didn't spot that thread.

    Still not a bad idea to have an account with Danske or KBC!


  • #4
    Nino Brown
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,507 ✭✭✭Nino Brown


    Skr4wny wrote: »
    Cheers, didn't spot that thread.

    Still not a bad idea to have an account with Danske or KBC!

    Absolutely not, unfortunately these days, its not a bad idea to bury it in your garden either.


  • #5
    hfallada
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,180 ✭✭✭hfallada


    I cant see it happen. Why would you pump billions into the banking to save confidence in it and when it actually has maintained confidence. When it actually has achieved confidence get rid of it over night by taxing deposits.


  • #6
    Skr4wny
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 229 ✭✭Skr4wny


    hfallada wrote: »
    I cant see it happen. Why would you pump billions into the banking to save confidence in it and when it actually has maintained confidence. When it actually has achieved confidence get rid of it over night by taxing deposits.

    AIB are writing down massive amounts and for me as someone who works in financial services, that does not instill confidence.

    That said, even if you are right, would it not make sense to have some money in a non-Irish bank just to hedge against the risk?

    You are way too trusting. Investing is not about being trusting it's about being pragmatic and there is nothing pragmatic about your statement. You are trying to apply your logic to a situation where people with elections to win in other countries would be making the decisions and logic to them may not apply.


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  • #7
    Skr4wny
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 229 ✭✭Skr4wny


    Nino Brown wrote: »
    Absolutely not, unfortunately these days, its not a bad idea to bury it in your garden either.

    Even buried in the garden, ECB easing is reducing it's value!! :-)


  • #8
    Tow
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,226 ✭✭✭Tow


    Skr4wny wrote: »
    Even buried in the garden, ECB easing is reducing it's value!! :-)

    Indeed. Property is often the favourite investment in countries that have suffering major banking and subsequent currency collapse, and have strong properly laws. When the dust settles you still own it and by and large it will regain its value after a few (10+) years.

    When is the money (including lost growth) Michael Noonan took in the Pension Levy going to be paid back?



  • #9
    Skr4wny
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 229 ✭✭Skr4wny


    Tow wrote: »
    Indeed. Property is often the favourite investment in countries that have suffering major banking and subsequent currency collapse, and have strong properly laws. When the dust settles you still own it and by and large it will regain its value after a few (10+) years.

    Yep, great point and it will generate revenue in the new currency the same as with the old. There's an element of safety in it you don't get elsewhere. That's one advantage of property over precious metals, they are income generating.


  • #10
    Nino Brown
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,507 ✭✭✭Nino Brown


    Tow wrote: »
    Indeed. Property is often the favourite investment in countries that have suffering major banking and subsequent currency collapse, and have strong properly laws. When the dust settles you still own it and by and large it will regain its value after a few (10+) years.

    Yeah, its great if you have it, and its paid for. But I wouldn't recommend borrowing to buy it now. Even without a currency collapse I would expect the coming repo's to drop the value further.


  • #11
    Tow
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,226 ✭✭✭Tow


    Nino Brown wrote: »
    Yeah, its great if you have it, and its paid for. But I wouldn't recommend borrowing to buy it now. Even without a currency collapse I would expect the coming repo's to drop the value further.

    Not necessary true, many people did quire well long term in the 70/80s when we had very high inflation. The interest rates killed them at the time, but the inflation eat into their debt and salaries increased in line over time. After a few years this greatly reduced the percentage of their earnings that went towards paying their mortgage. If the current low inflation continues long term there will still be people still paying 30%+ of their take home pay in 20 years time.

    When is the money (including lost growth) Michael Noonan took in the Pension Levy going to be paid back?



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  • #12
    Cute Hoor
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,788 ✭✭✭Cute Hoor


    Tow wrote: »
    Indeed. Property is often the favourite investment in countries that have suffering major banking and subsequent currency collapse, and have strong properly laws. When the dust settles you still own it and by and large it will regain its value after a few (10+) years.

    Anybody who bought property 5 years ago will have seen the value of that property drop by anything up to 90% (or more), particularly when you factor in the ancillary purchase costs (stamp duty, auctioneer's fees, legal fees, furnishings etc), the ancillary ongoing costs (maintenance, insurance, day to day management or management fees etc), and the ancillary selling costs (refurbishment, auctioneer's fees, legal fees etc). To suggest that after 10+ years (that's about 5 years from now) it will have regained it's value is slightly ambitious imo.


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