Champion's League Outright Bet / Hedge advice

Neil3030

I put €44 on Borussia Dortmund to win the Champion's League back in October, at odds of 38. After commission, this will net me around €1550, if they win the tournament. Their odds have since contracted to 7.4 -> 7.6, meaning I could trade out now for a profit of €170.

I made the decision after near cardiac failure in the Malaga game that I would like to trade out for as much and as even a profit (regardless of results) as possible. But I can't help but feel as though there is a more profitable manner to trade out of this bet, using a few inter-linked bets. Even something that shoulders a bit of risk, but would see me take a few hundred.

The most obvious is to simply hedge by backing Real Madrid to qualify for the final; Markets are really only finding their feet after the Semi-Final draw, but this can be had for around 1.45 -> 1.5. Just for sake of providing an example, if I were to stick 600 on Madrid reaching the final, it would return me around 250 if Dortmund lose, or a pot of nearly €1000 still to play for if Dortmund progress. In the latter scenario, I would then need Dortmund's odds of winning the final to shrink to around 3.0, in which case they could then be laid for 666 of the remaining grand (netting 333 whether they win or not).

But part of me thinks that there could be a way to be even more creative about this, if even shouldering a bit more risk. For example, I can get Real Madrid (-1) in the first leg for 4.33. Dortmund were no slouches in the bernabeu last year, and I figure if they are anywhere within a goal of Real going into the return leg, they are in with a shout (possibly also opening up better value for other hedging bets). Conversely, if Real win by more than a goal in the first leg, it's safe enough to assume that they are in the final. But this is just one possibility, and one which also carries risk.

So I hereby bow to the wisdom of this board, and ask if anybody would have another strategy to try and squeeze out as profitable a hedge as possible?

Bateman

I have €100 on Madrid at 5.6 and haven't done anything yet as I'm fairly convinced they'll go through.

I guess what you should do depends on your view of the current prices and whether or not you think they are correct. If I were on Dortmund now, I definitely wouldn't let it ride as, as above, I think they're done.

I would go with the option of backing Madrid to qualify and just kick back and enjoy the two games for footballing as well as financial reasons, wouldn't attempt to use match-related betting in either the first or second leg.

UnknownSpecies

What did you do in the end? I fancy Dortmund for the cup personally. You're in an enviable position right now.

Bateman

Was hoping this thread might just be let sink down the bottom of the forum

Neil3030

In the end I put €250 on Madrid to win the Champion's League, back before the first leg kicked off (odds of around 3.2, iirk)

So that's €250 gone from my potential winnings, leaving me with an overall pot of around €1200.

If I hedge now (they are trading at around 2.8), I can lock in €535 after commission... (or €285 net, after you factor in the lost hedge)....

Was hoping they'd be closer to the 2.5 mark, if I'm honest. At those odds, am I right in thinking the value lies in holding the position open -> 2.8 implies implied prob of 35% for the €1200 pot, or €420.... trading out only nets me €285....?

But if I hadn't hedged, leaving the position open leaves me with .35*1550 = 542, which is more or less the hedge... I'm probably screwing this up somewhere...