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Amstel Gold Race 2013, 14 April **warning, contains unmasked spoilers**
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12-04-2013 11:31am#148th Amstel Gold Race, Sunday 14 April, Maastricht - Valkenburg (251 km)
It's time to say goodbye to the cobbles .... and say hello to the first of the Ardennes classics on Sunday. Official website here.
There are a few changes to the route this year. Firstly, a new finishing circuit expands the number of climbs from 32 to 34, with the peloton climbing the Cauberg four times in total. Secondly, the finish line will be placed 1.8 km after the top of the Cauberg climb. It's the same finish line as the 2012 road world championships.
So who's going to win? (Full start list here)
Peter Sagan is the favourite and is in terrific form this spring. He's won Ghent - Wevelgem and De Brabantse Pijl - La Flèche Brabançonne, and was runner-up in Strade Bianche, Milan - San Remo, E3 Harelbeke and Ronde Van Vlaanderen. In his most recent win a few days ago at Brabantse Pijl, Sagan out-sprinted Gilbert to take the win. By opting not to compete in Paris-Roubaix, he should have plenty in the tank for Sunday's race. Sagan won't be taking part in Liège-Bastogne-Liège, so he seems to be really targeting the Amstel.
Philippe Gilbert knows the Limberg region very well, having won this race twice in 2010 and 2011, and the 2012 road world championships. He made history two years ago when he became the first rider to win Brabantse Pijl, the Amstel Gold Race, Flèche Wallonne and L-B-L in the same season. Although Gilbert hasn't won in the rainbow jersey this year, his big target will be the Ardennes Classics. He decided to skip Flanders and Paris-Roubaix, and treat the Tour of the Basque Country as a training ride in order to make sure he is in top condition for Sunday. If it ends up as a head-to-head against Sagan, there's a good chance Gilbert will be second best again. A win at Flèche Wallonne or L-B-L may be more likely.
Other contenders include Alejandro Valverde and Joaquim Rodriguez. Both are fantastic climbers and are well rested having not competed in the cobbled classics or in the Tour of the Basque Country, but the flat 1.8 km finish from the summit of the Cauberg may not suit them as well as Gilbert and Sagan.
In contrast, if Simon Gerrans can hang on to the leaders up the Cauberg, then he will have a great chance of taking the sprint. He only came 20th last year, but was 3rd in 2011 and 7th in 2009.Last year's winner Enrico Gasparotto hasn't had the best of preparations for this race after being knocked down off his bike by a truck! :eek: He did manage to escape any serious injury and continue his training though.
Both Dan Martin and Nico Roche are in this. Dan should perform well in this and should be in great form after winning the Tour of Catylunya. L-B-L may suit him better than this race though. It's hard to know what to expect with Nico. Contador isn't riding, so that leaves either himself or Kreuziger as team leader, or they both could be co-leaders. He was 59th here in 2011 and 33rd in 2010 when he was with AG2R.
Outright betting: P Sagan evens; P Gilbert 7/2; S Gerrans 14/1; A Valverde 14/1; J Rodriguez 14/1.
D Martin 50/1 and N Roche 150/1.
Live TV coverage on Eurosport1 from 1.10pm. Highlights later that day on Eurosport1 at 6pm and 8.30pm, and on Eurosport2 at 11.15pm.7
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