Amstel Gold Race 2013, 14 April **warning, contains unmasked spoilers**

dastardly00

48th Amstel Gold Race, Sunday 14 April, Maastricht - Valkenburg (251 km)

It's time to say goodbye to the cobbles .... and say hello to the first of the Ardennes classics on Sunday. Official website here.

There are a few changes to the route this year. Firstly, a new finishing circuit expands the number of climbs from 32 to 34, with the peloton climbing the Cauberg four times in total. Secondly, the finish line will be placed 1.8 km after the top of the Cauberg climb. It's the same finish line as the 2012 road world championships.

So who's going to win? (Full start list here)

Peter Sagan is the favourite and is in terrific form this spring. He's won Ghent - Wevelgem and De Brabantse Pijl - La Flèche Brabançonne, and was runner-up in Strade Bianche, Milan - San Remo, E3 Harelbeke and Ronde Van Vlaanderen. In his most recent win a few days ago at Brabantse Pijl, Sagan out-sprinted Gilbert to take the win. By opting not to compete in Paris-Roubaix, he should have plenty in the tank for Sunday's race. Sagan won't be taking part in Liège-Bastogne-Liège, so he seems to be really targeting the Amstel.

Philippe Gilbert knows the Limberg region very well, having won this race twice in 2010 and 2011, and the 2012 road world championships. He made history two years ago when he became the first rider to win Brabantse Pijl, the Amstel Gold Race, Flèche Wallonne and L-B-L in the same season. Although Gilbert hasn't won in the rainbow jersey this year, his big target will be the Ardennes Classics. He decided to skip Flanders and Paris-Roubaix, and treat the Tour of the Basque Country as a training ride in order to make sure he is in top condition for Sunday. If it ends up as a head-to-head against Sagan, there's a good chance Gilbert will be second best again. A win at Flèche Wallonne or L-B-L may be more likely.

Other contenders include Alejandro Valverde and Joaquim Rodriguez. Both are fantastic climbers and are well rested having not competed in the cobbled classics or in the Tour of the Basque Country, but the flat 1.8 km finish from the summit of the Cauberg may not suit them as well as Gilbert and Sagan.

In contrast, if Simon Gerrans can hang on to the leaders up the Cauberg, then he will have a great chance of taking the sprint. He only came 20th last year, but was 3rd in 2011 and 7th in 2009.Last year's winner Enrico Gasparotto hasn't had the best of preparations for this race after being knocked down off his bike by a truck! :eek: He did manage to escape any serious injury and continue his training though.

Both Dan Martin and Nico Roche are in this. Dan should perform well in this and should be in great form after winning the Tour of Catylunya. L-B-L may suit him better than this race though. It's hard to know what to expect with Nico. Contador isn't riding, so that leaves either himself or Kreuziger as team leader, or they both could be co-leaders. He was 59th here in 2011 and 33rd in 2010 when he was with AG2R.





Outright betting: P Sagan evens; P Gilbert 7/2; S Gerrans 14/1; A Valverde 14/1; J Rodriguez 14/1.
D Martin 50/1 and N Roche 150/1.

Live TV coverage on Eurosport1 from 1.10pm. Highlights later that day on Eurosport1 at 6pm and 8.30pm, and on Eurosport2 at 11.15pm.

Morrisseeee

Love these next 3 races, esp this race & the next, really tough finishes.
I'm gonna go with Gilbert, he showed a little bit of form during the week.

MPFG

Good preview dastadly000

I fancy Dan Martin for La Flèche Wallonne...i expect its Sagan or Gilbert or Val Verde for this race.....would be nice if it was a bit of a surprise !

Flandria

A reminder that Sunday also hosts one of the little known but genuinely great races of the calendar - Tro Bro Leon. Started by an old French hippy as a fundraiser it winds through Brittany and takes in cobbles (it is sometimes called the Hell of the West), stone paths, punchy climbs and gravel roads - imagine elements of Flanders, Roubaix and Strade Bianche. There may be streams available so keep an eye out. It's also part of the Celtic/Hinault/Connemara sportive thingummy. Last years was like this...

MPFG

Flandria wrote: »

A reminder that Sunday also hosts one of the little known but genuinely great races of the calendar - Tro Bro Leon. Started by an old French hippy as a fundraiser it winds through Brittany and takes in cobbles (it is sometimes called the Hell of the West), stone paths, punchy climbs and gravel roads - imagine elements of Flanders, Roubaix and Strade Bianche. There may be streams available so keep an eye out. It's also part of the Celtic/Hinault/Connemara sportive thingummy. Last years was like this...

Any Irish in this race ??

Flandria

MPFG wrote: »

Any Irish in this race ??

Nope, the nearest links are Bagdonas (AG2R) and La Pomme Marseille team (former grooming club for Roche, Martin and Deignan).

http://trobroleon.jimdo.com/engagés/world-tour/

sy

Nice write up dastardly00, thanks.
Yes Sagan looks unbeatable. However Gilbert has a little more in the tank but may not peak til LBL and wonder can Sagan hold that form for much longer. He seems to have an eternal peak!! Movistar have a strong team and Valverde will be anxious to get back on the podium. My pick (leaving out superman) is Gerrans, he has targeted the Ardennes and might just have the kick to upset the Sagan/Gilbert/Valverde train. Its a tough race and always competitive, probably should be included as a Monument but being relatively young compared to the other classics it is still building its reputation. One thing for sure is that after Sunday, we will have a good idea who the contenders for LBL will be next week.

MPFG

Looks like Kreuziger and Sorrenson are TST leaders and Nico is domestique for this one

http://www.velonation.com/News/ID/14365/Saxo-Tinkoff-riding-for-captain-Roman-Kreuziger-in-Amstel-Gold.aspx?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+velonation_pro_cycling+%28Cycling+News+%26+Race+Results+%7C+VeloNation.com%29

dastardly00

MPFG wrote: »

Looks like Kreuziger and Sorrenson are TST leaders and Nico is domestique for this one

Ah balls

manafana

Philippe Gilbert 5/1



The man who did it all back in 2011 sweeping the ardennes week. 2012 didn’t go anywhere near to the plan but by the end of 2012 he was declared the world champion on these very roads. Can dig deep and shares many of the qualities of Sagan. Gilbert was always talked up as a youngster but not always guided in the best way. He also won this race in 2010 so its the one he likes and even with the new finish that will not change. Even when not at his best he managed 6th here last year. He will want get his tactics spot on this time unlike on Wednesday.



Quintana (66/1) showed at Pais Vasco that he is more than a mountain goat, and has a kick and a sprint that got him time and then also showed strength in the time trial no fur lone hope for this and to improve on 69th in the worlds


Also tempted by the 100/1 about leukemans

Darkglasses

Gilbert with a lot of hard work early on...still fancy him to win to be honest. Think I saw Nico up the front near Boom.

Flandria

Tro Bro Leon...

http://www.cyclingfans.com/node/7422

dastardly00

Purito has had a nasty crash in the peloton.

happytramp

dastardly00 wrote: »

Purito has had a nasty crash in the peloton.

He's abandoned. Obviously I hope he's okay but this may play into Dan's hands for F-W.

manafana

judging byy what i saw dont see purito racing for a few weeks

dastardly00

10 km to go!

dastardly00

Kreuziger looks fairly strong here..

Flandria

Clever win by RK. He might yet be the rider that we thought he should be...

Inquitus

Where was Sagan? I watched the last 50km and I don't think I heard him mentioned at all?

Flandria

Inquitus wrote: »

Where was Sagan? I watched the last 50km and I don't think I heard him mentioned at all?

Poor babba tired...

letape

Glad to see Krezeuger win - classy rider. Looked like Valverde came second. Just don't like him or the way he rides.

Gilbert looks like he's on the way up and could be on form for Ghent-Wavegelm and Liege.

letape

Inquitus wrote: »

Where was Sagan? I watched the last 50km and I don't think I heard him mentioned at all?

Didn't see him at all. There had been a few crashes earlier so might have gotten delayed in them. Tommy Voeckler broke his leg in a crash apparently.

Darkglasses

letape wrote: »

Didn't see him at all. There had been a few crashes earlier so might have gotten delayed in them. Tommy Voeckler broke his leg tongue in a crash apparently.

FYP

manafana

letape wrote: »

Didn't see him at all. There had been a few crashes earlier so might have gotten delayed in them. Tommy Voeckler broke his leg in a crash apparently.

ha chinese whispers, he hurt his collarbone, bad translation from whoever read the french race updates

MPFG

Don't think the two Irish fellas finished the race ...were they in the crash

dastardly00

MPFG wrote: »

Don't think the two Irish fellas finished the race.....were they in the crash

Don't think either crashed...

Nico had his domestique duty done so he probably decided to save energy for FW and LBL.

Dan AFAIK was Garmin-Sharp team leader so not sure why he didn't finish. If he didn't feel in good form he probably decided to save his energy as well.

MPFG

Look like Kimmage is questioning the win on Twitter

sy

Exciting finish. Sagan seemingly suffered from cramps due to heat. Supposedly 27C today. I think the guy is tired after a specatular 6 weeks of racing. Gilbert is definitely getting stronger (and lighter!) so will be favourite with Valverde for LBL and Fleche W not discounting Sagan and hopefully Dan Martin. Gerrans whom I fancied was impressive on the Cauberg. Kreuziger , well I have to say I wasn't expecting that one. Looked very lean and fit so will probably carry that form into LBL. Didn't think he would hold off the expected Gilbert surge but fair play and he can climb. Any news on Rodriguez ? One less for Dan to contend with Wednesday?

dastardly00

According to the Katusha team, J Rod sustained a “strong contusion at the left femoral biceps muscle” and it's uncertain whether he will be ok for FW.

TheBlaaMan

dastardly00 wrote: »

Don't think either crashed...

Dan AFAIK was Garmin-Sharp team leader so not sure why he didn't finish. If he didn't feel in good form he probably decided to save his energy as well.

Dan Martin ‏@DanMartin86
Nice bit of whiplash this morning after hitting a grass banking headfirst at the worst time possible. Thanks to netapp-endura rider for

Dan Martin ‏@DanMartin86

Ruining my race. Best thing about this week. 2 more chances and they suit me better. Form is good and except a sore neck, not a scratch.

IM0

MPFG wrote: »

Good preview dastadly000

I fancy Dan Martin for La Flèche Wallonne...i expect its Sagan or Gilbert or Val Verde for this race.....would be nice if it was a bit of a surprise !

did that count then, kreuzinger! :eek:

riparooo

dastardly00 wrote: »

According to the Katusha team, J Rod sustained a “strong contusion at the left femoral biceps muscle” and it's uncertain whether he will be ok for FW.

In other words he got a bruise on his thigh!

ednwireland

riparooo wrote: »

In other words he got a bruise on his thigh!

ah now c'mon a strong contusion is much worse than a bruise :P

MPFG

IM0 wrote: »

did that count then, kreuzinger! :eek:

It was indeed a surprise ...

Must say Gilbert looked great attacking the last climb...was abit too late and he ran out of steam....but he is so strong

Now for another surprise (for the world that is) and for D Martin to fulfil my prediction...