Oil - our economic game changer

Truncheon Rouge

Is it time to start buying property in Bulgaria again?

From the Indo.

ExxonMobil has spent $20m to bring the exploration rig from west Africa to Ireland’s waters. The Eirik Raude semi-submersible rig was operating on the Jubilee Field, Ghana, and is now on the Dunquin prospect to begin drilling test wells
JOHN MULLIGAN – 30 MARCH 2013

Oil giant ExxonMobil kicks off a $160m-plus (€125m) drilling programme off the west coast of Ireland this weekend with hopes that confirmation of major fossil fuel reserves will transform the country's economy.

The US company is planning to drill test wells over a four-month period at two prospects at the Dunquin licence area in the Porcupine Basin, 200km off shore.

Previous data has suggested that there could be over 300 million barrels of oil and 8.5 trillion cubic feet of gas between the two Dunquin prospects.

If they could be proven and then extracted, such finds would mark one of the biggest ever global discoveries of oil and gas and be a game-changer for Ireland's economic fortunes.

...

http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/oil-giant-exxon-starts-160m-drilling-project-off-west-coast-29163728.html


What ya think? Are we secretly rich? will we pass it all on to Merkel if we are?
will we be like Norway and be all like 'ha ha im alright jack, smell ya later'

or......is it just another false hope, another amazing Chinese business park/massive trading hub, remember that one.

lkionm

Since us Irish are pure sound we gave all these lads really high tax incentives.

Cant remember off the top of my head but it was something along the lines of dont bother paying taxes until ye turn a profit lads,

It gets the companies in and if they make loads of profit they can pay us some sweet sweet tax dollarz. I dont think our rate of tax would be high on this though for a good few years and until the industry is totally up and running.

donvito99

Where would an Irish Dallas be set?

Dalkey?

Duckworth_Luas

Truncheon Rouge wrote: »

The US company is planning to drill test wells over a four-month period at two prospects at the Dunquin licence area in the Porcupine Basin, 200km off shore.

Soon to be known as The Disputed Zone!

flutered

the goverment will probably do another ray bourke on it, then all we will have is the cost of keeping the tree huggers at bay.

super_furry

We won't see a penny of it even if they do discover huge reserves.

Peregrine

donvito99 wrote: »

Where would an Irish Dallas be set?

Dalkey?

Why, in Dingle of course

If they could be proven and then extracted, such finds would mark one of the biggest ever global discoveries of oil and gas and be a game-changer for Ireland's economic fortunes.

There's no shortage of oil, in fact there's plenty of oil, problem is that most of the remaining oil is of the "high hanging fruit" variety and is therefore expensive to drill for.
The only reason they're testing it now is that the price of crude is staying over $100 a barrel, if it drops they'll pull out quicker than a good catholic husband, which would be a real anticlimax and they'll still have blown their investment!

kowloon

Deleted User wrote: »

pull out quicker than a good catholic husband!

My name is URL

Safe as houses

kowloon

kowloon wrote: »

I should have added "which would be a real anticlimax and they'll still have blown their investment!"

dxhound2005

lkionm wrote: »

Since us Irish are pure sound we gave all these lads really high tax incentives.

Cant remember off the top of my head but it was something along the lines of dont bother paying taxes until ye turn a profit lads,

It gets the companies in and if they make loads of profit they can pay us some sweet sweet tax dollarz. I dont think our rate of tax would be high on this though for a good few years and until the industry is totally up and running.

Are you sure it's these lads? It could have been some other lads you can't remember of the top of your head.

Chuck Stone

super_furry wrote: »

We won't see a penny of it even if they do discover huge reserves.

If this happens in my able-bodied lifetime I'd be willing to take up arms to make sure it does.

fullgas

lkionm wrote: »

Since us Irish are pure sound we gave all these lads really high tax incentives.

Cant remember off the top of my head but it was something along the lines of dont bother paying taxes until ye turn a profit lads,

It gets the companies in and if they make loads of profit they can pay us some sweet sweet tax dollarz. I dont think our rate of tax would be high on this though for a good few years and until the industry is totally up and running.

That is how Corporation Tax works - a tax on profits (in our case at 12.5%). Meanwhile all their employees are paying tax and and the investment generates economic growth for the country.

Chuck Stone

Chuck Stone wrote: »

If this happens in my able-bodied lifetime I'd be willing to take up arms to make sure it does.

Depends on whether there is anything left after the operating costs are taken into consideration, as I said earlier, it's the cost of extraction that decides whether a well is drilled, if they're too successful and cause the price to drop they'll quit!

dxhound2005

Chuck Stone wrote: »

If this happens in my able-bodied lifetime I'd be willing to take up arms to make sure it does.

It probably won't. Corrib gas was discovered in 1996 and it might start to flow in 2015. A similar project in Norway would take about 4 years.

hyperborean

I cant believe its not butter

AlmightyCushion

fullgas wrote: »

That is how Corporation Tax works - a tax on profits (in our case at 12.5%). Meanwhile all their employees are paying tax and and the investment generates economic growth for the country.

In the case of oil and gas exploration it's actually 25%-40% depending on the size of the field. Hopefully, there are a few big, commercially viable finds and we can start really taxing the shít out of it like Norway.

smileyj1987

Jobsbrigde will now be full of Oil Rig jobs if there is loads of oil . We give cheap oil and jobs its a win win for them .

upandcumming

From what I hear it'll be 30% tax.

Duggy747

Last I heard is that there's eleventy trillion quids worth and that we gave it all away for 2 Jaffa Cakes and a Choco Ice.

mike65

Deleted User wrote: »

There's no shortage of oil, in fact there's plenty of oil, problem is that most of the remaining oil is of the "high hanging fruit" variety and is therefore expensive to drill for.
The only reason they're testing it now is that the price of crude is staying over $100 a barrel, if it drops they'll pull out quicker than a good catholic husband, which would be a real anticlimax and they'll still have blown their investment!

Its getting cheaper though when inflation adjusted and oil will not be south of 100 dollars a barrel again short of a big meteor strike. While the potential of the Irish fields has yet to be proven we should all hope its good news if only so we have a great balance of payments which is good for ones credit rating.

mike65

mike65 wrote: »

Its getting cheaper though when inflation adjusted and oil will not be south of 100 dollars a barrel again short of a big meteor strike. While the potential of the Irish fields has yet to be proven we should all hope its good news if only so we have a great balance of payments which is good for ones credit rating.

Unfortunately, much of the inflation we're experiencing is directly due to high oil priced, it's a self reinforcing cycle. The problem is that inflation will "raise the bar" on which fields are profitable or not. Today, the bar may be $100, in a couple of years due to inflation it may be $130 for the very same oilfield (deep underwater).

bit of a bogey

smileyj1987 wrote: »

Jobsbrigde will now be full of Oil Rig jobs if there is loads of oil . We give cheap oil and jobs its a win win for them .

Jobsbridge needs to start phasing out, Saw the company I work for advertising positions through Jobsbridge. Exploitation of the highest order!

brandon_flowers

dxhound2005 wrote: »

It probably won't. Corrib gas was discovered in 1996 and it might start to flow in 2015. A similar project in Norway would take about 4 years.

That is complete rubbish. Greenfield projects in Norway and everywhere else take 10 years minimum from discovery to full production. The Skarv field was discovered in 1997/98 and became operational in Dec 2012. These are the kind of projects we would have to do in Ireland given the sea conditions which any project would be built in.

And on topic the fact that Exxon are here drilling and exploring the potential of the area and not Providence just prospecting and hoping for a share bounce is a big plus. If Exxon found 2 billion barrels of oil, their share price would be virtually unchanged but the fact they are here means they are serious about it.

dxhound2005

brandon_flowers wrote: »

That is complete rubbish. Greenfield projects in Norway and everywhere else take 10 years minimum from discovery to full production. The Skarv field was discovered in 1997/98 and became operational in Dec 2012. These are the kind of projects we would have to do in Ireland given the sea conditions which any project would be built in.

And on topic the fact that Exxon are here drilling and exploring the potential of the area and not Providence just prospecting and hoping for a share bounce is a big plus. If Exxon found 2 billion barrels of oil, their share price would be virtually unchanged but the fact they are here means they are serious about it.

I was going on the word of Pat Rabitte, sorry. He obviously hasn't a clue, no more than myself.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/davidmonagan/2012/11/01/black-gold-in-ireland-mindthe-eco-warriors-though/

Pat Rabbitte, the Irish Minister for Communications, Energy and Natural Resources, acknowledged as much. “You can bring a well ashore in about four years in Norway. By the time we have eventually gone through all the hoops here, it will be 16 or 17 years. I can’t pretend that has been a positive experience for Ireland,” he told Jamie Smyth of the Financial Times.

brandon_flowers

dxhound2005 wrote: »

I was going on the word of Pat Rabitte, sorry. He obviously hasn't a clue, no more than myself.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/davidmonagan/2012/11/01/black-gold-in-ireland-mindthe-eco-warriors-though/

Pat Rabbitte, the Irish Minister for Communications, Energy and Natural Resources, acknowledged as much. “You can bring a well ashore in about four years in Norway. By the time we have eventually gone through all the hoops here, it will be 16 or 17 years. I can’t pretend that has been a positive experience for Ireland,” he told Jamie Smyth of the Financial Times.

Accepted - it is unfortunate that there is so much misinformation out there regarding how Ireland could/should/can't do things regarding oil projects and again we have a minister with absolutely no background in the industries for which he is minister talking verbal diarrhea.

The most important point in all of this is the employment it would generate and that is how it would greatly benefit the Irish economy. Forget all you hear regarding Ray Burke did this, did that. And that youtube video going around about Norway/Ireland. It is complete propaganda. Also all industry related to any platform/FPSO offshore of Ireland must be ran from an Irish shore base.

Statoil is a listed company so every argument in that video is invalid. And would you really want the Irish government getting their hands on money which they will pump into a black hole of wastage. Any skeptics should just go to Aberdeen to see the revenue generated by employment and industry and not by the government putting money back into the area.

goose2005

Discovering oil would be disastrous for Ireland - a big bag of cash handed to us without us having to reform politically, economically or industrially.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Resource_curse

dxhound2005

brandon_flowers wrote: »

That is complete rubbish. Greenfield projects in Norway and everywhere else take 10 years minimum from discovery to full production. The Skarv field was discovered in 1997/98 and became operational in Dec 2012. These are the kind of projects we would have to do in Ireland given the sea conditions which any project would be built in.

And on topic the fact that Exxon are here drilling and exploring the potential of the area and not Providence just prospecting and hoping for a share bounce is a big plus. If Exxon found 2 billion barrels of oil, their share price would be virtually unchanged but the fact they are here means they are serious about it.

Doing better than 10 minimum may be possible if my reading of this project in Norway is correct and they achieve their target.

http://www.norwaypost.no/index.php/news/latest-news/28118-statoil-plans-new-on-shore-oil-terminal-in-finnmark

Discovered in 2011/2012 due to come on stream in 2018. Is coming on stream the same as full production?

brandon_flowers

2018 is ambitious to say the least for the Skrugard project, I did some pre-FEED work on it recently and they want to power the platform and FPSO's from shore which is a huge technology change. I don't see a contract being awarded before 2016 for the FPSO, 3 years for construction, a year for integration and subsea connection (hugely weather dependent inside the Arctic Circle). Also the operating temperature is as low as -30degC which brings all sorts of challenges for engineering and operation. There are smaller projects where you could possibly do it in 10 years but this would be a fast track if the discovery was huge 10bln+ barrels. Petrobras can do it but in Brazil they make the rules, in Europe everything is a lot safer/higher spec and more controlled.

On stream usually means the first flow of oil/gas, full production is anything from 6 months-18 months after this when they are sorting out the process commissioning to allow flare-less operation.

Agree with goose2005 regarding the get out of jail card for our political system but the economy needs some injection of cash from somewhere. They both go hand in hand. No point reforming with an economy which is constantly shrinking.

G Power

super_furry wrote: »

We won't see a penny of it even if they do discover huge reserves.

we will if we want to but so far the irish people are happy to not upset anyone while we freeze our bollocks off the last 2 weeks for lack of money to heat our homes.

if there's one thing we love in this country is a bit o the auld sufferin, please can I have some more

dxhound2005

G Power wrote: »

we will if we want to but so far the irish people are happy to not upset anyone while we freeze our bollocks off the last 2 weeks for lack of money to heat our homes.

if there's one thing we love in this country is a bit o the auld sufferin, please can I have some more

Are you a spokesperson for the Irish people? Are you sufferin much yourself?

G Power

dxhound2005 wrote: »

Are you a spokesperson for the Irish people? Are you sufferin much yourself?

well there are up to 2,000,000 of us with less than €50 left at the end of the month so I fit into a huge majority of people who could very well be freezin their nuts off like we are now

Phoebas

G Power wrote: »

well there are up to 2,000,000 of us with less than €50 left at the end of the month so I fit into a huge majority of people who could very well be freezin their nuts off like we are now

Don't you mean up to 4,000,000 ? :rolleyes:

http://www.rte.ie/news/2013/0117/363141-credit-union-what-left/

dxhound2005

G Power wrote: »

well there are up to 2,000,000 of us with less than €50 left at the end of the month so I fit into a huge majority of people who could very well be freezin their nuts off like we are now

The people who brought us that research.

http://www.creditunion.ie/communications/pressreleases/2012/title,7004,en.php

Also shortly afterwards brought us this less quoted research.

http://www.creditunion.ie/communications/pressreleases/2012/title,7037,en.php

Irish consumers expect to spend €527 on average this Christmas compared to €562 last year. Middle aged adults and females are likely to spend more money than other groups.

You will see that the average spend of €527 is funded 83% from income and savings. The figures don't add up.

This other source says that we are spending over €900 at Christmas. What does it all mean?

http://businessetc.thejournal.ie/christmas-spending-665872-Nov2012/

BTW I'm all for more spending of the €120 billion held in private deposits. Obviously the 1.5 million people with only €50 a month left don't have it but someone has.