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2013 Predictions Thread

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  • 28-03-2013 1:23pm
    #1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 13,687 ✭✭✭✭


    Getting close to opening day so I suppose we need a thread to post our predictions - Division winners, wild cards and World Series teams. And maybe MVPs, Cy Youngs and Rookies? I'm going to do a bit of reading and stealing of writers ideas and will post mine in a bit.


Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 13,351 ✭✭✭✭8-10


    Did my win projections this week based on Pythagorean Expectation of 2012 run totals adjusted for opinion-based differences for 2013 in the areas of Offense, Rotation and Bullpen. My first year using this projection model and I did it on a team by team basis so not sure if overall totals are possible!

    But I'll be putting up a few of my calculations in the gambling forum later this week once I take a closer look at my projections versus bookies' win lines.

    I see Nats again having the best record in baseball, they could even top over 100 wins I think with a full year of Strasburg, Harper and an actual closer.

    However I'm backing Angels to win the WS, beating Washington 4-1. :)

    Predictions2013_zps673a2045.png


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 13,687 ✭✭✭✭jack presley


    If the Mets win 76, I'll be over the moon!

    Anyway, my picks:

    NLE - Nats
    NLC - Reds
    NLW - Giants
    ALE - Rays
    ALC - Tigers
    ALW - Angels
    NL WCs -Braves, Cardinals.
    AL WCs - Blue Jays, Rangers

    AL MVP - Trout
    NL MVP - Harper
    AL Cy - Darvish
    NL Cy - Strasburg
    AL Rookie - Myers
    NL Rookie - No idea!

    World Series - Tigers beating the Nats in 6.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,351 ✭✭✭✭8-10


    If the Mets win 76, I'll be over the moon!

    Anyway, my picks:

    NLE - Nats
    NLC - Reds
    NLW - Giants
    ALE - Rays
    ALC - Tigers
    ALW - Angels
    NL WCs -Braves, Cardinals.
    AL WCs - Blue Jays, Rangers

    AL MVP - Trout
    NL MVP - Harper
    AL Cy - Darvish
    NL Cy - Strasburg
    AL Rookie - Myers
    NL Rookie - No idea!

    World Series - Tigers beating the Nats in 6.

    I like the Myers call. Why is he not in the roster? He'll be called up on 2 weeks


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,296 ✭✭✭Coeus


    Ah the predictions thread. Here are my picks with teams in bold to make the playoffs.

    NL East - 1. Nats, 2. Braves, 3. Phils, 4. Mets, 5 Marlins
    NL Cent - 1. Reds, 2. Cards, 3. Pirates, 4. Brew Crew, 5. Cubs
    NL West - 1. Dodgers, 2. Giants, 3. Padres, 4. Dbacks, 5. Rox

    I agree with the consensus that the East will be a 2 horse race, it will be close but Nats have better pitching and I think they are more clutch. I think the Dodgers will just edge the Giants in the West. They have a better rotation this season and should have a full season of Matt Kemp.

    AL East - 1. Jays, 2. Rays, 3. Yanks, 4. Orioles, 5. Red Sox
    AL Cent - 1. Tigers, 2. Royals, 3. White Sox, 4. Indians, 5. Twins
    AL West - 1. As, 2. Angels, 3. Rangers, 4. Mariners, 5. Astros

    I think the Jays will score a tons of runs and win the East like the Yankees have done for years by outslugging allcomers. I see the West been very competative with the possibility of 4 teams finishing above .500 but none with more than 90 wins. Because of this a team from the central might sneak into the wild card spot.

    NLCS - Nats over Reds
    ALCS - Tigers over Jays

    WS - Nats over Tigers

    AL MVP - Miggy
    NL MVP - Harper
    AL Cy - Verlander
    NL Cy - Stras
    AL Rookie - Jackie Bradley Jr
    NL Rookie - Julio Teheran


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,335 ✭✭✭smackbunnybaby


    NL East - 1. Nats, 2. Braves, 3. Phils, 4. Mets, 5 Marlins
    NL Cent - 1. Cards 2. Reds 3. Brewers 4. Pitts 5. Cubs
    NL West - 1. Giants 2. Dodgers 3. DBacks 4. Rockies 5. Padres

    AL East - 1. Jays, 2. Rays, 3. Yanks, 4. Orioles, 5. Red Sox
    AL Cent - 1. Tigers, 2. Indians, 3. Royals 4. White Sox 5. Twins
    AL West - 1. Angels 2. As 3. Rangers, 4. Mariners, 5. Astros

    NLCS - Cards over Giants
    ALCS - Tigers over Jays

    WS - Cards over Tigers

    AL MVP - Trout
    NL MVP - Harper
    AL Cy - Verlander
    NL Cy - Wainwright
    AL Rookie - Some lad mystery guy from the Yankees will get called up and save them...
    NL Rookie - Travis D'arnaud


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  • Registered Users Posts: 392 ✭✭Footoo


    Ok will give this a whirl. Disclosure - Blue Jays fan

    NLE - Braves (have them on a par with the Nats)
    NLC - Reds
    NLW - Giants


    ALE - Rays
    ALC - Tigers
    ALW - Angels
    NL WCs -Nats, Cardinals.
    AL WCs - Blue Jays, Rangers

    AL MVP - Longoria
    NL MVP - Votto
    AL Cy - Darvish (I think he's gonna have a monster year)
    NL Cy - Hamels
    AL Rookie - Myers (would like to say Profar but not sure he'll play everyday when called up)
    NL Rookie - Tavares (well becaues everyone else seems to think he will)

    WS- Tigers over Braves in 6


    The obivous ommision being the Dodgers. i just don't see them having the offensive production to win enough games.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,351 ✭✭✭✭8-10


    8-10 wrote: »

    Predictions2013_zps673a2045.png

    Did my kind-of half year totals from actual standings versus my predictions posted above out of interest.

    So far the following teams I had predicted under .500 but are currently above:

    Pirates
    Orioles
    Indians (though I had them in 2nd in division where they are)

    And the following I predicted over .500 but currently below:

    Blue Jays
    Angels
    Phillies
    Dodgers
    Giants

    And in percentage terms, I have all teams trending pretty well. Out of the 30 predictions, 27 of them are currently less than .100 (ie 10%) variance from where I predicted them.

    I only have 3 teams that are trending more than 10% from where I said they'd end up:

    Red Sox (.609 currently I had them at .500 even)
    Pirates (.629 I had .481 - I'm going to be wrong on this one they'll definitely finish above .500)
    Nationals (.506 I had been very bullish on them at .611 - still think they'll win the division)

    Still a long way to go but I'm happier with my Central and Eastern predictions so far rather than the Wests' which I think will both end up way off.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 13,687 ✭✭✭✭jack presley


    If the Mets win 76, I'll be over the moon!

    Anyway, my picks:

    NLE - Nats
    NLC - Reds
    NLW - Giants
    ALE - Rays
    ALC - Tigers
    ALW - Angels
    NL WCs -Braves, Cardinals.
    AL WCs - Blue Jays, Rangers

    AL MVP - Trout
    NL MVP - Harper
    AL Cy - Darvish
    NL Cy - Strasburg
    AL Rookie - Myers
    NL Rookie - No idea!

    World Series - Tigers beating the Nats in 6.

    The reason why I'm not making predictions for the post-season can be seen above. Only 1 out of 6 on division winners and only 5 out of 10 playoff teams. Pathetic!

    And of my player predictions, only Myers is probably in with a shout.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,351 ✭✭✭✭8-10


    8-10 wrote: »

    Predictions2013_zps673a2045.png

    Only 2 out of 6 division winners but I did get 7 out of 10 playoff teams. Pirates and Red Sox surprised me. Had a feeling Indians would finish second in their division but only really expected 1 team to get out of there.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,073 ✭✭✭MoyVilla9


    8-10 wrote: »
    Only 2 out of 6 division winners but I did get 7 out of 10 playoff teams. Pirates and Red Sox surprised me. Had a feeling Indians would finish second in their division but only really expected 1 team to get out of there.

    Bang on for the Yankee's number of wins.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 13,351 ✭✭✭✭8-10


    MoyVilla9 wrote: »
    Bang on for the Yankee's number of wins.

    Twins, Reds and Dodgers too. Was bound to get a couple randomly correct I guess! Good fun anyway


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