2013 Predictions Thread

jack presley

Getting close to opening day so I suppose we need a thread to post our predictions - Division winners, wild cards and World Series teams. And maybe MVPs, Cy Youngs and Rookies? I'm going to do a bit of reading and stealing of writers ideas and will post mine in a bit.

8-10

Did my win projections this week based on Pythagorean Expectation of 2012 run totals adjusted for opinion-based differences for 2013 in the areas of Offense, Rotation and Bullpen. My first year using this projection model and I did it on a team by team basis so not sure if overall totals are possible!

But I'll be putting up a few of my calculations in the gambling forum later this week once I take a closer look at my projections versus bookies' win lines.

I see Nats again having the best record in baseball, they could even top over 100 wins I think with a full year of Strasburg, Harper and an actual closer.

However I'm backing Angels to win the WS, beating Washington 4-1.

jack presley

If the Mets win 76, I'll be over the moon!

Anyway, my picks:

NLE - Nats
NLC - Reds
NLW - Giants
ALE - Rays
ALC - Tigers
ALW - Angels
NL WCs -Braves, Cardinals.
AL WCs - Blue Jays, Rangers

AL MVP - Trout
NL MVP - Harper
AL Cy - Darvish
NL Cy - Strasburg
AL Rookie - Myers
NL Rookie - No idea!

World Series - Tigers beating the Nats in 6.

8-10

jack presley wrote: »

If the Mets win 76, I'll be over the moon!

Anyway, my picks:

NLE - Nats
NLC - Reds
NLW - Giants
ALE - Rays
ALC - Tigers
ALW - Angels
NL WCs -Braves, Cardinals.
AL WCs - Blue Jays, Rangers

AL MVP - Trout
NL MVP - Harper
AL Cy - Darvish
NL Cy - Strasburg
AL Rookie - Myers
NL Rookie - No idea!

World Series - Tigers beating the Nats in 6.

I like the Myers call. Why is he not in the roster? He'll be called up on 2 weeks

Coeus

Ah the predictions thread. Here are my picks with teams in bold to make the playoffs.

NL East - 1. Nats, 2. Braves, 3. Phils, 4. Mets, 5 Marlins
NL Cent - 1. Reds, 2. Cards, 3. Pirates, 4. Brew Crew, 5. Cubs
NL West - 1. Dodgers, 2. Giants, 3. Padres, 4. Dbacks, 5. Rox

I agree with the consensus that the East will be a 2 horse race, it will be close but Nats have better pitching and I think they are more clutch. I think the Dodgers will just edge the Giants in the West. They have a better rotation this season and should have a full season of Matt Kemp.

AL East - 1. Jays, 2. Rays, 3. Yanks, 4. Orioles, 5. Red Sox
AL Cent - 1. Tigers, 2. Royals, 3. White Sox, 4. Indians, 5. Twins
AL West - 1. As, 2. Angels, 3. Rangers, 4. Mariners, 5. Astros

I think the Jays will score a tons of runs and win the East like the Yankees have done for years by outslugging allcomers. I see the West been very competative with the possibility of 4 teams finishing above .500 but none with more than 90 wins. Because of this a team from the central might sneak into the wild card spot.

NLCS - Nats over Reds
ALCS - Tigers over Jays

WS - Nats over Tigers

AL MVP - Miggy
NL MVP - Harper
AL Cy - Verlander
NL Cy - Stras
AL Rookie - Jackie Bradley Jr
NL Rookie - Julio Teheran

smackbunnybaby

NL East - 1. Nats, 2. Braves, 3. Phils, 4. Mets, 5 Marlins
NL Cent - 1. Cards 2. Reds 3. Brewers 4. Pitts 5. Cubs
NL West - 1. Giants 2. Dodgers 3. DBacks 4. Rockies 5. Padres

AL East - 1. Jays, 2. Rays, 3. Yanks, 4. Orioles, 5. Red Sox
AL Cent - 1. Tigers, 2. Indians, 3. Royals 4. White Sox 5. Twins
AL West - 1. Angels 2. As 3. Rangers, 4. Mariners, 5. Astros

NLCS - Cards over Giants
ALCS - Tigers over Jays

WS - Cards over Tigers

AL MVP - Trout
NL MVP - Harper
AL Cy - Verlander
NL Cy - Wainwright
AL Rookie - Some lad mystery guy from the Yankees will get called up and save them...
NL Rookie - Travis D'arnaud

Footoo

Ok will give this a whirl. Disclosure - Blue Jays fan

NLE - Braves (have them on a par with the Nats)
NLC - Reds
NLW - Giants


ALE - Rays
ALC - Tigers
ALW - Angels
NL WCs -Nats, Cardinals.
AL WCs - Blue Jays, Rangers

AL MVP - Longoria
NL MVP - Votto
AL Cy - Darvish (I think he's gonna have a monster year)
NL Cy - Hamels
AL Rookie - Myers (would like to say Profar but not sure he'll play everyday when called up)
NL Rookie - Tavares (well becaues everyone else seems to think he will)

WS- Tigers over Braves in 6


The obivous ommision being the Dodgers. i just don't see them having the offensive production to win enough games.

8-10

8-10 wrote: »

Did my kind-of half year totals from actual standings versus my predictions posted above out of interest.

So far the following teams I had predicted under .500 but are currently above:

Pirates
Orioles
Indians (though I had them in 2nd in division where they are)

And the following I predicted over .500 but currently below:

Blue Jays
Angels
Phillies
Dodgers
Giants

And in percentage terms, I have all teams trending pretty well. Out of the 30 predictions, 27 of them are currently less than .100 (ie 10%) variance from where I predicted them.

I only have 3 teams that are trending more than 10% from where I said they'd end up:

Red Sox (.609 currently I had them at .500 even)
Pirates (.629 I had .481 - I'm going to be wrong on this one they'll definitely finish above .500)
Nationals (.506 I had been very bullish on them at .611 - still think they'll win the division)

Still a long way to go but I'm happier with my Central and Eastern predictions so far rather than the Wests' which I think will both end up way off.

jack presley

jack presley wrote: »

If the Mets win 76, I'll be over the moon!

Anyway, my picks:

NLE - Nats
NLC - Reds
NLW - Giants
ALE - Rays
ALC - Tigers
ALW - Angels
NL WCs -Braves, Cardinals.
AL WCs - Blue Jays, Rangers

AL MVP - Trout
NL MVP - Harper
AL Cy - Darvish
NL Cy - Strasburg
AL Rookie - Myers
NL Rookie - No idea!

World Series - Tigers beating the Nats in 6.

The reason why I'm not making predictions for the post-season can be seen above. Only 1 out of 6 on division winners and only 5 out of 10 playoff teams. Pathetic!

And of my player predictions, only Myers is probably in with a shout.

8-10

8-10 wrote: »

Only 2 out of 6 division winners but I did get 7 out of 10 playoff teams. Pirates and Red Sox surprised me. Had a feeling Indians would finish second in their division but only really expected 1 team to get out of there.

MoyVilla9

8-10 wrote: »

Only 2 out of 6 division winners but I did get 7 out of 10 playoff teams. Pirates and Red Sox surprised me. Had a feeling Indians would finish second in their division but only really expected 1 team to get out of there.

Bang on for the Yankee's number of wins.

8-10

MoyVilla9 wrote: »

Bang on for the Yankee's number of wins.

Twins, Reds and Dodgers too. Was bound to get a couple randomly correct I guess! Good fun anyway