900 million bet on the Euro to collapse within 2 weeks

Prodigious

http://www.politics.ie/forum/economy/208243-euro-collapse-within-two-weeks-900-million-says-will.html

Is it worth stockpiling now?

squod

Not familiar with the lingo. ''Put''? This more to do with the US dollars demise or the euro crashing? BRICS shurely more of an upset then anything else?


http://www.ibtimes.com/so-long-yankees-china-brazil-ditch-us-dollar-trade-deal-brics-summit-1153415

Scofflaw

Prodigious wrote: »

http://www.politics.ie/forum/economy/208243-euro-collapse-within-two-weeks-900-million-says-will.html

Is it worth stockpiling now?

It's not a bet for the euro to crash, as such, just to lose value against the dollar. In financial terms, it's neither a big move against the euro, nor, because it appears to be a single trade, necessarily important - there has to be at least one person willing to bet the same amount the other way, after all, otherwise it couldn't have been made.

To be honest, I think highlighting this is part of some serious reaching by the financial press to show that Cyprus has generated market volatility. Same with the Bitcoin stuff.

cordially,
Scofflaw

antoobrien

squod wrote: »

Not familiar with the lingo. ''Put''? This more to do with the US dollars demise or the euro crashing?

It seems that this bet was the Euro dropping vs the dollar.

squod wrote: »

BRICS shurely more of an upset then anything else?


http://www.ibtimes.com/so-long-yankees-china-brazil-ditch-us-dollar-trade-deal-brics-summit-1153415

€30bn is small change to the US, I doubt that would do much more one its own than scratch the dollar. The damage won't be due to any transactional loss, it will be the psychological hit that will effect of moving away from the dollar cased. They're still getting over the creation of the Euro.

Duggys Housemate

It's a big single bet but just betting on a drop not a collapse.

A put is a contract now to be able to sell that amount of Euro to someone else at a particular price in two weeks.

It could be as simple as a multinational arranging some big cash transfers / gearing up for some acquisition or other and wanting to lock in the price today before the end of the quarter.

Equally someone else has to be on the other side of this trade and we don't know if this is hedged. it's not that big of a number.

Bob_Latchford

All it tells you is the media want to hype anti euro stories.

antoobrien

Bob_Latchford wrote: »

All it tells you is the media want to hype anti euro stories.

Indeed if you dig through the crap and links in there, there is an investors blog with some details of the actual trade.

The trade was made with a EUR/USD when the price was 1.2927, the put was for 1.2800. The 1.2800 value is a over 7c higher than the lowest value of the euro last summer, when there were value moves that were as large if not larger than the one predicted here.

sock puppet

Scofflaw wrote: »

It's not a bet for the euro to crash, as such, just to lose value against the dollar. In financial terms, it's neither a big move against the euro, nor, because it appears to be a single trade, necessarily important - there has to be at least one person willing to bet the same amount the other way, after all, otherwise it couldn't have been made.

To be honest, I think highlighting this is part of some serious reaching by the financial press to show that Cyprus has generated market volatility. Same with the Bitcoin stuff.

cordially,
Scofflaw

It's a website I, and probably most, have never heard of that also appears to be implying some sort of 9/11 consipracy in the link. I can't see how it could seriously be labelled "the financial press". The only reference to Bitcoin I've ever seen in any serious publication is to do with either mobile payments or money laundering.

MadsL

George Soros? That you?

Scofflaw

sock puppet wrote: »

It's a website I, and probably most, have never heard of that also appears to be implying some sort of 9/11 consipracy in the link. I can't see how it could seriously be labelled "the financial press". The only reference to Bitcoin I've ever seen in any serious publication is to do with either mobile payments or money laundering.

To be honest, I was mostly thinking of the rush of "Cypriot bailout causes market turbulence" articles, which highlighted things like falls in two Spanish bank stocks, and often referred to "heavy losses" without any mention of what or where those heavy losses were. They said that Djisselbloem had been forced to withdraw his comments as a result of such market turbulence, but there didn't seem to be any actual signs of such. A long slow bank run there might well be, but I didn't see the vaunted market turbulence. As to Bitcoin, there have indeed been quite a few articles about it and its current value against the euro, plus postings here.

cordially,
Scofflaw