BHA senior handicappers verdict on Cheltenham.

sting60

Our Conor.Astonishing performance by OC and I have given him a new Mark of 160 from 150 1lb higher than Katchits win and he went on to win the Champion Hurdle the following season.I am aware that a lot of horses did not run their races and the French breds seem to be of a low standard.All factored in it was very impressive.Hurricane Fly.I have the Fly back to 173 his old mark from 172 and have left Rock On Ruby at 170.Ruby told me he got there to early and idled on ground that was very holding.If this race was first on the card the Fly would have won a little further imo.Champagne Fever.I spoke to Simon Claisse and he assured me that the first race will ride the best ground wise.I was very very impressed with CF and have raised him 10lb to a new rating of 158.MTOY found nothing for pressure and so have dropped him to 158 also.I do believe the 10 lb rise for CF to be on the lenient side and expect him to prove me right.Sprinter Sacre is now the greatest two mile horse since ratings started and a new high mark of 188 eclipses the 186 Master Minded had got.I was impressed by Charles Byrnes training of Solwhit and have him now 10lb behind Big Bucks.Im of the opinion that At Fishers Cross would be a serious contender for next years World Hurdle but speaking to Rebecca Curtis he will go chasing next season.Of the handicappers Holywell stood out and I raised him 12lb and that should not stop him in future races as he is a hugh improver.I have Cue Card running to 170 with First Lieutenant 161[behind his Lexus run]Gold Cup.Bobs worth goes up to 180 and I read him to be 7lbs a better horse than Sir Des Champs who now goes to 173.Myself and Noel O Brien agree with this assessment as we also agree Silviniaco Conti would have finished second.I cannot raise SC because im not sure he would have won and the horses in second/third were rated lower than him.Long Run will remain on the same mark as his hard fought King George win.I better add that the horse who took his eye when finishing sixth was Goulanes."he will destroy his current mark in the near future".

Morgans

Ruby didnt tell you/or the handicapper how he was flat out at the top of the hill? And how the pace collasped?

RichieLawlor

Morgans wrote: »

Ruby didnt tell you/or the handicapper how he was flat out at the top of the hill? And how the pace collasped?

But he was back in it before the race fell apart, ROR was still tanking along when HF started to loom up.

Very unusual race, I thought he was a toast at the top of the hill

Arctic89

Is Bob's Worth really 7lbs better than SDC? Seems pretty harsh on SDC to me.

RichieLawlor

Arctic89 wrote: »

Is Bob's Worth really 7lbs better than SDC? Seems pretty harsh on SDC to me.

Probably a lot more tbf, BW jumped badly, was hampered and stayed on to win by 7 lengths going away. I'd say he's further clear than the ratings have him

sting60

RichieLawlor wrote: »

Probably a lot more tbf, BW jumped badly, was hampered and stayed on to win by 7 lengths going away. I'd say he's further clear than the ratings have him

WE have had out different opinions of late but this post is about as accurate as it gets.

Huntley

RichieLawlor wrote: »

But he was back in it before the race fell apart, ROR was still tanking along when HF started to loom up.

This doesn't really make sense Richard. Just because Rock on Ruby was seemingly tanking along doesn't mean that the pace hadn't collapsed.

The pace is slowed once they jump the 4th last, and never regained. Fehily was obviously giving his mount a breather and you can see Zarkandar come back on terms and HF make 3-4 lengths on the field. He attempts to inject more pace coming down the hill but it is continually slowing.

Slattsy

Are the 'sector times' available anywhere for the Champion Hurdle ?

Juwwi

Slattsy wrote: »

Are the 'sector times' available anywhere for the Champion Hurdle ?

I saw this posted elsewhere.


Here's the winners sectional times from when each horse jumped the first hurdle for the two 2 mile hurdle races.

Champagne Fever

3rd---4th---5th----6th----7th----8th

---

Finish
87.1/111.2/132.8/170.5/187.8/213.1/226.46

Hurricane Fly

3rd---4th---5th----6th----7th----8th

---

Finish
86.2/110.2/131.0/168.0/185.6/212.8/228.66

Champagne Fever went from the final flight to the line in 13.35 compared to 15.86 for HF.


these are the miles per hour figures for both winners between each hurdle..up to the last hurdle.

Champagne Fever
H1-H2 = 33.59
H2-H3 = 28.37
H3-H4 = 32.56
H4-H5 = 30.39
H5-H6 = 31.95
H6-H7 = 36.40
H7-H8 = 31.78

Average Speed = 32.15mph


Hurricane Fly

H1-H2 = 32.85
H2-H3 = 29.62
H3-H4 = 32.58
H4-H5 = 31.71
H5-H6 = 32.46
H6-H7 = 35.93
H7-H8 = 29.57

Average Speed = 32.10mph

So up to the last hurdle CF has run very fractionally faster using the averages of each hurdle...so it should be fair to expect that CF would be slower from the last to the line...but CF ran from the last 2.54 seconds faster

Slattsy

I'd love to see what ROR's times were like.

Juwwi

Here's a split screen video of the two races aswell,worth a look.

http://www.racinguk.com/video/watch/cheltenham-split-screen

UrbanSea

CHAMPAGNE FEVER WOULD HAVE WON THE CHAMPION HURDLE

Huntley

Slattsy wrote: »

I'd love to see what ROR's times were like.

He ran the first mile roughly 2-3 seconds quicker than Champagne Fever, yet the CH ended up being 2 seconds slower.

Sectionals can be messy enough because of ground conditions and whatnot but that is an excessive swing.

If Ruby didn't push HF into the mix after the 4th last then he would have won by further, they were always going to come back to him.

UrbanSea

I may be wrong not to put I don't necessarily worry much about sectionals. Anyone ever go racing in America? Sectionals is ALL they focus on, bought the form one day over there, they had more emphasis on the times of previous races than finishing positions

Huntley

UrbanSea wrote: »

I may be wrong not to put I don't necessarily worry much about sectionals.

It depends, sectionals on their own are pointless unless you are able to intelligently apply them to situations.

Races are run on their individual merit. Champagne Fever wouldn't have won the Champion despite running a quicker time in the Supreme so to speak. A similar case with Grands Crus and last years King George/Feltham comparison.

UrbanSea

Huntley wrote: »

It depends, sectionals on their own are pointless unless you are able to intelligently apply them to situations.

Races are run on their individual merit. Champagne Fever wouldn't have won the Champion despite running a quicker time in the Supreme so to speak. A similar case with Grands Crus and last years King George/Feltham comparison.

That was me being sarcastic about him winning the Champion I understand it would obviously be different

Huntley

UrbanSea wrote: »

That was me being sarcastic about him winning the Champion I understand it would obviously be different

I wasn't referring to that just saying in general that using sectionals/finishing times to decipher a horses ability is pointless.

Using them to understand the unfolding/analysis of a race can be beneficial.

Slattsy

Sectionals only appeal to me on races up to a mile.
I tend to study it more when I know there's a guaranteed front runner.