Big value MLB HR season bet

8-10

Hi all,

As some of you may remember, I post Major League Baseball bets here from time to time, generally around the start of each season.

Today I noticed that Paddy Power have a Home Run leader market for 2013 - http://www.paddypower.com/bet/baseball/mlb-regular-season-specials/Most-Regular-Season-Home-Runs-2013-4952620.html?force_racing_css=N

And based on respectable sabermetric sources, I can see a massive gap when it comes to Giancarlo Stanton.

Let's look at some projections from these sources for 2013, I have included hyperlinks if you want to check the source:

RotoChamp - Top 5 HR leaders for 2013:

1. Giancarlo Stanton - 43
2. Jose Bautista - 40
3. Miguel Cabrera - 38
4. Curtis Granderson - 38
5. Ryan Braun - 36

Zips - Top 5 HR leaders for 2013:

1. Giancarlo Stanton - 41
2. Miguel Cabrera - 35
3. Ryan Braun - 33
4. Curtis Granderson - 33
5. Jay Bruce - 32

Steamer - Top 5 HR leaders for 2013:

1. Giancarlo Stanton - 42
2. Albert Pujols - 36
3. Miguel Cabrera - 35
4. Jose Bautista - 33
5. Ryan Braun - 33

Oliver Projection System (Brian Cartwright) - Top 5 HR leaders for 2013:

1. Giancarlo Stanton - 40
2. Miguel Cabrera - 35
3. Albert Pujols - 32
4. Prince Fielder - 30
5. Jose Bautista - 29

Bill James, the father of Sabermetrics - Top 5 HR leaders for 2013:

1. Giancarlo Stanton - 43
2. Jose Bautista - 39
3. Miguel Cabrera - 38
4. Albert Pujols - 38
5. Prince Fielder - 37

ESPN - Top 5 HR leaders for 2013:

1. Giancarlo Stanton - 42
2. Jose Bautista - 41
3. Miguel Cabrera - 39
4. Jay Bruce - 38
5. Edwin Encarnacion - 36

I tagged on ESPN at the end, I know it's not a sabermetric source like the others but I figure I'd give the context that the top sports media organisation also project Stanton as number 1.

So what we have is unanimous consensus that Giancarlo Stanton is the most likely player to hit more HR's in 2013 than anyone else. (FYI he hit 37 last year, Cabrera hit the most with 44 however Stanton only played in 123 games out of the regular 162 which means he was 'at bat' 121 times less than Cabrera in 2012. Had they both played the same amount he definitely would have been close to winning it)

HOWEVER, Paddy Power, as you can see from the above link, have Stanton currently priced at a huge 30/1 to hit the most HR's in 2013.

I have put on the max allowed bet of €35 on this, possible returns of over a grand.

If that's too long for your liking, he is also a massive 11/1 to be the National League HR leader in 2013.

For those of you who don't know, MLB is split into American League and National League. And because the American League has a Designated Hitter rule (basically a specialist hitter bats on behalf of the pitcher, in the National League the pitcher must bat), the AL tends to have more power hitters than the NL. So let's look at the big hitters being projected above and the leaguse they play in:

Miguel Cabrera - AL
Albert Pujols - AL
Jose Bautista - AL
Giancarlo Stanton - NL
Ryan Braun - NL
Curtis Granderson - AL
Prince Fielder - AL
Jay Bruce - NL
Edwin Encarnacion -AL

So if we look at the list like this, you can see that only Ryan Braun and Jay Bruce oppose him within his league among the players that the sources I mentioned put in their top 5.

If anybody requires any further information I am happy to give it, as I believe that no matter how much data you look at, there is simply NO WAY that if you run the 2013 MLB season 31 times with the knowledge at this point, that Giancarlo Stanton will be the MLB HR leader only once. And that's the value of backing him at 30/1.

Most MLB HR's 2013 bet
Most National League HR's 2013 bet

mike65

This post has just killed the markets! Stuck a 10nner at 21.00s

8-10

mike65 wrote: »

This post has just killed the markets! Stuck a 10nner at 21.00s

Wow yeah it appears like it! 20/1 and 17/2 now. Hope some others got the bigger prices

mike65

When does the season end?

Hidalgo

mike65 wrote: »

When does the season end?

Regular season ends c early/mid Sept I think.
World Series c mid October

8-10

Hidalgo wrote: »

Regular season ends c early/mid Sept I think.
World Series c mid October

Yeah last game of regular season is Sept 29th. Not sure when they'll settle the bet but should be round about then.

okidoki987

I'd say most of those minor markets would take little cash to move them.

Footoo

On a slightly related note PP have Josh Johnson at a ridiculous 16/1 to to lead the Blue Jays in pitching wins. IMO this is essentially a three horse race between himself, Dickey (4/9) and Morrow (not quoted). If healthy, he's one of the elite pitchers in Baseball and with Dickey sure to regress, this seems like a great bet.

8-10

Footoo wrote: »

On a slightly related note PP have Josh Johnson at a ridiculous 16/1 to to lead the Blue Jays in pitching wins. IMO this is essentially a three horse race between himself, Dickey (4/9) and Morrow (not quoted). If healthy, he's one of the elite pitchers in Baseball and with Dickey sure to regress, this seems like a great bet.

I like this bet. Buerle and Romero would be the other 2 in the rotation but Buerle won't be the top winner, Romero has a good shout I think, I do like him. You're right about Dickey, should be a solid number 1 in the rotation but can't see him winning 20 games again this year.

Only reason why JJ is 16/1 has to be the injury worries, which are significant. Started over 30 games last year for the first time since 2009 but lost 14 games.

I think I'll follow you on this though for obvious value, 1pt win. Can you post the link to the market for us all?

Footoo

8-10 wrote: »

I like this bet. Buerle and Romero would be the other 2 in the rotation but Buerle won't be the top winner, Romero has a good shout I think, I do like him. You're right about Dickey, should be a solid number 1 in the rotation but can't see him winning 20 games again this year.

Only reason why JJ is 16/1 has to be the injury worries, which are significant. Started over 30 games last year for the first time since 2009 but lost 14 games.

I think I'll follow you on this though for obvious value, 1pt win. Can you post the link to the market for us all?

No worries. here

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/baseball-betting/baseball/mlb-regular-season-specials?ev_oc_grp_ids=1204300

Clearly an under researched market considering JA Happ is quoted as the other starter, even though the Jays named their rotation before spring training and JA Happ will more likely start in minors.

Can't agree with your views on Romero, he's had the same huge issues in spring training that he had in his disastrous season last year. He'll be out of the rotation in a few weeks imho.

8-10

Footoo wrote: »

Can't agree with your views on Romero, he's had the same huge issues in spring training that he had in his disastrous season last year. He'll be out of the rotation in a few weeks imho.

Definitely looks the most likely eventuality, don't get me wrong. However I'm just saying that if he turns a corner after surgery at the end of last year and starts to pitch well, he'll get more run support than last year and could easily win more games. Spring stats never concern me really (Buerle has similarly bad figures I think) but in fairness I haven't actually seen him throw yet so you're right, it's premature for me to say he has a chance of beating the others.

Johnson is already backed into 12/1, great spot by the way. It really seems that PP have started putting out markets without reflecting everything correctly so let's keep digging and I reckon there'll be more value bets to be had.

Another stand out for me on PP is Nationals to win NL East @ 5/4. They really shouldn't be better than evens to win that division as they're probably World Series favourites right now and can definitely see them winning 100 games this year. (Betfair have them 10/11). Reluctant to make any 'free money' statements but I'd be very bullish on that 5/4 bet on the Nationals.

8-10

Ok this market is getting bizarre!

Stanton is now 17/2 to win NL Home Run leader, but 15/2 to win the MLB Home Run leader.

This is bizarre as if he wins the 15/2 he'll also win the 17/2 anyway and the 17/2 is so much more likely (remember it was 11's against 30's)

To put this in context it's like having Rooney at 2/1 to score anytime but evens to score first. Just makes no sense.

What I think I'll do is start up a baseball log for the upcoming season in the challenge/logs forums as I think PP are going to continue with these markets with little apparent knowledge.

Only thing stopping me is if there's interest? I put a good bit of work explaining myself in the OP above but didn't get a single thanks. Not looking for ego reasons, just don't want to put effort into a thread and not have anyone follow it. But once I finish my projection models this week ill take another look at the markets and see if I find value. Ill be betting this year regardless!

mike65

Hey I replied and put money on that's all the thanks you need!

Spongey1975

Keep the tips going. I was lucky to get Stanton at 20's and always check in for tips on US sports. Keep em coming

8-10

Ok thanks guys,

I'll start a log anyway before April and hopefully we can make a bit of money.

Cilldara11

Thanks for sharing. Only after seeing this. He's 15-2 favourite now, I seem to have missed the action! Would tune in with interest if a blog was going ahead..

manafana

still 17/2 ust for national league lads,

also thinking the 5/6 for under43.5 runs from top scorer is worth bet based on predictions.

8-10

Footoo wrote: »

Clearly an under researched market considering JA Happ is quoted as the other starter, even though the Jays named their rotation before spring training and JA Happ will more likely start in minors.

Can't agree with your views on Romero, he's had the same huge issues in spring training that he had in his disastrous season last year. He'll be out of the rotation in a few weeks imho.

Yep nicely predicted, Romero out of rotation and optioned to class A. Happ is actually 5th starter now.

I'm going strong on the under win market for Toronto this year. Give me another couple of days and I'll have all my win projections and division winners posted up here.

8-10

8-10 wrote: »

Another stand out for me on PP is Nationals to win NL East @ 5/4. They really shouldn't be better than evens to win that division as they're probably World Series favourites right now and can definitely see them winning 100 games this year. (Betfair have them 10/11). Reluctant to make any 'free money' statements but I'd be very bullish on that 5/4 bet on the Nationals.

Getting even more bullish on this one. Everybody else is playing for second place in the NL East.

They won 98 games last year (best record in the majors) and in 2013 they'll have a genuine closer as well as a full season of Bryce Harper and no innings-limit on Strasburg.

Braves are the main challengers but I don't see them winning 90+ again this year and Phillies should see slight improvement but still less than 85.

5/4 to win NL East is still on PP for those interested. Also definitely interested in the Overs win market bet which is 92 games.

Again, I'll post all team's win projections before season starts Monday but just wanted to highlight this one again while it's still a better-than-evens market.

Footoo

8-10 wrote: »

Yep nicely predicted, Romero out of rotation and optioned to class A. Happ is actually 5th starter now.

I'm going strong on the under win market for Toronto this year. Give me another couple of days and I'll have all my win projections and division winners posted up here.

Just getting a chance to reply to this now.

The thing about the Jays is that they probably have one of the highest ceilings of any team in the league but there are tons of question marks. i think the Rays will win the division but the Jays will run them close. i wouldnt go near their over/under. think its just about right.

The Rays over/under seems low though

Josh Johnson is into 13/5 so feel a bit smug getting him at 16.s and Stanton at 30's.

I Think there may be some money to be made on some of the games in the first week of the year . I'm gonna keep an eye on the spreads on Paddy Power.

markc91

How's this looking got on it knowing little to nothing about mlb could you update maybe once a month to keep me in the loop?

ANXIOUS

It's not going very well has 3 at the moment leader is on 12. He hit his first three two weeks ago and I currently out injuried.

8-10

ANXIOUS wrote: »

It's not going very well has 3 at the moment leader is on 12. He hit his first three two weeks ago and I currently out injuried.

Yep he started slow but that's usual for Stanton in April, he's hit very few in that month before. But just as he started to get going he went down injured, about 4 weeks ago.

I think it was like Saturday: HR, Sunday: 2 HR's, Monday: Hamstring tear. Heartbreaking.

There's still no timetable for his return but it really needs to be in June to have an outside chance. Best case scenario he'll be back in 2 weeks, start hitting a few before all-star break and then get traded to a hitters park.

I'm far less optimistic now but had he not done his hamstring it could have been so different.

opr

Looks like he's back and firing on all cylinders keeping an outside chance of this bet alive.

Opr