glanbia shares

dharn

im thinking of buying 3000 worth of glanbia shares, any thoughts out there, i am happy to beat current deposit interest rates nett of tax etc i ave a portfolio of shares that i am building up over the years not showing a profit yet but getting back to my starting point, anyway does anyone think glanbia have run out of steam now due to recent big gains, what would be a reasonable bid, i have an online share dealing account so can put limit on purchase price

Grecco

Have a read HERE

dharn

Grecco wrote: »

Have a read HERE

Thanks a million for that, ithink my ipression, run out of steam was right

Sonnenblumen

Grecco wrote: »

Have a read HERE

What a great read. Thanks for sharing the link.

lucky john

Grecco wrote: »

Have a read HERE

interesting look at glanbia. mind you I think the farmers no more about the milk business than he knows about glanbia. I'd be willing to bet his father will be closer to right than him again. If you listened to the dad last year you would be up 50% today

He expected EPS to be 10% but with the help of exchange rates EPS was 22%. He rabbited on about farmers and milk and missed the point as to the JV with the CoOp. Glanbia is no more an Irish dairy company than Kerry. Almost 90% of its earnings are generated from it Us cheese and Nutritionals business. The Nutritional end of things is where the future lies and that is where the investments are been made to drive future revenues. Its growing revenue there 20% yoy.

Having said all that I thing the share price has had a good run and is now some place close to fair value. I held shares for the last few years but got out at €7.95 (up 150%). I still like Glanbia. Good managment and a clear strategy.

dharn

lucky john wrote: »

interesting look at glanbia. mind you I think the farmers no more about the milk business than he knows about glanbia. I'd be willing to bet his father will be closer to right than him again. If you listened to the dad last year you would be up 50% today

He expected EPS to be 10% but with the help of exchange rates EPS was 22%. He rabbited on about farmers and milk and missed the point as to the JV with the CoOp. Glanbia is no more an Irish dairy company than Kerry. Almost 90% of its earnings are generated from it Us cheese and Nutritionals business. The Nutritional end of things is where the future lies and that is where the investments are been made to drive future revenues. Its growing revenue there 20% yoy.

Having said all that I thing the share price has had a good run and is now some place close to fair value. I held shares for the last few years but got out at €7.95 (up 150%). I still like Glanbia. Good managment and a clear strategy.

Best case, how much room for share price growth do see for the next 12 months ?

Sonnenblumen

dharn wrote: »

Best case, how much room for share price growth do see for the next 12 months ?

I wonder, best case, how much rain we'll get this year?

freedominacup

dharn wrote: »

Best case, how much room for share price growth do see for the next 12 months ?

Management claimed that it should go to 16 times EPS in public on numerous occasions once the millstone:rolleyes: of DII was lifted from around the company's neck.

lucky john

dharn wrote: »

Best case, how much room for share price growth do see for the next 12 months ?

Its up 230% in the last 3 years so the shine is gone off it at this stage. Its unhitched from irish dairying and the co op now and a certain amount of its future growth is factored in to todays share price.
If they are following Kerry's path they will grow through acquisitions and try to gain dominance in the nutritional market in the US and else where.

I think(and I am certainly no expert) they will hover where they are for a while. Unless they have something in the pipeline I dont think they will cross €9 anytime soon.

dharn

lucky john wrote: »

Its up 230% in the last 3 years so the shine is gone off it at this stage. Its unhitched from irish dairying and the co op now and a certain amount of its future growth is factored in to todays share price.
If they are following Kerry's path they will grow through acquisitions and try to gain dominance in the nutritional market in the US and else where.

I think(and I am certainly no expert) they will hover where they are for a while. Unless they have something in the pipeline I dont think they will cross €9 anytime soon.

Ya im beginning to think they have rishen too much lately to grow much for a while

Sonnenblumen

lucky john wrote: »

Its up 230% in the last 3 years so the shine is gone off it at this stage. Its unhitched from irish dairying and the co op now and a certain amount of its future growth is factored in to todays share price.
If they are following Kerry's path they will grow through acquisitions and try to gain dominance in the nutritional market in the US and else where.

I think(and I am certainly no expert) they will hover where they are for a while. Unless they have something in the pipeline I dont think they will cross €9 anytime soon.

Onwards and upwards. SP now over €10.00 = SP + 100% in 12 months!!

dharn

Sonnenblumen wrote: »

Onwards and upwards. SP now over €10.00 = SP + 100% in 12 months!!

Ya its mad Ted !

gordongekko

-tax profits for the six months to the end of June rose to €95m from €88m the same time last year.

Glanbia’s international businesses are all steadily growing sales. Analysts expect Global Performance Nutrition and Global Ingredients to deliver positive year-end results, despite a likelihood of challenges in global markets for the remainder of the year.

Glanbia’s Dairy Ireland division saw its revenues rise 9.2% to €383m, despite earnings falling 24% to €12m, which the company said was caused by lower sales volumes, higher input costs and low consumer confidence in Ireland.

Glanbia group managing director, John Moloney, said: “The group’s first-half performance was driven by Global Performance Nutrition and Global Ingredients. These two business segments now represent over 70% of Group EBITA and are our core platforms for future growth.

“We expect little change in the external operating environment in the second half and with clear challenges remaining in Dairy Ireland we are maintaining our 2013 full-year guidance of adjusted earnings per share growth of between 8% and 10%, on a constant currency basis.”

Analysts at Davy described Glanbia’s half year results as “a solid interim statement with good top-line momentum across key divisions”.

The stockbrokers note that the EBITA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation) growth in Performance Nutrition (+18.3%) and Global Ingredients (+6.0%) were key to Glanbia delivering a 10.2% increase in earnings per share (EPS) to 30.39c.

Performance Nutrition grew branded sales in excess of 20%.

Davy’s analysts said: “We believe there is a clear growing demand opportunity for Glanbia.

“Nutrition is playing a key role in the lifestyle and dietary choices of a growing number of people. With its vertically integrated model and significant internal investment, Glanbia is ideally placed to capitalise on this.”

Consumer demand in the US, the most developed sports nutrition market, continued to grow in the first six months of 2013. While competition in the sector remains strong, Glanbia noted that Global Performance Nutrition outperformed the market.

The group continues to review its debt facilities, which it is using to leverage growth opportunities in global markets. Net debt has also been reduced from €560m at the end of 2012 to €444m by Jun 2013.

The board is recommending an interim dividend of 4.03 cents per share (HY 2012: 3.66 cents per share), an increase of 10%.

http://www.irishexaminer.com/business/glanbia-revenue-soars-13-to-16bn-240634.html

lucky john

Excellent company. It did very well for me and I got out at €8. I didn't think there was much left in them at the time. With The pe around 20 it seemed sensible to take the profit and move on. Kind of sorry because I really like everything about them.

zimmermania

lucky john wrote: »

Excellent company. It did very well for me and I got out at €8. I didn't think there was much left in them at the time. With The pe around 20 it seemed sensible to take the profit and move on. Kind of sorry because I really like everything about them.

I bought 5000 at €1.18 in 20001,i still have them and now they are €11.40.How long can they go on rising?

freedominacup

zimmermania wrote: »

I bought 5000 at €1.18 in 20001,i still have them and now they are €11.40.How long can they go on rising?

Get your money back plus some interest for starters. Bank that, then deicde on another few shares that give a return and a dividend and sell 50-60% of the remainder and buy the other shares. You no longer have all your eggs in one basket, you've gotten your money back plus some profit and you still have skin in the glanbia game if you think they still have more to climb.

Just one point on glanbia. I saw in one of the business supplements that they are supposed to be actively in the hunt for one of their competitors. They have a war chest and apparently are determined to use it. This will probably push the shares higher. A former director told me that there's a market imperative on them to do this but that is not any secret.

Sonnenblumen

freedominacup wrote: »

Get your money back plus some interest for starters. Bank that, then deicde on another few shares that give a return and a dividend and sell 50-60% of the remainder and buy the other shares. You no longer have all your eggs in one basket, you've gotten your money back plus some profit and you still have skin in the glanbia game if you think they still have more to climb.

Just one point on glanbia. I saw in one of the business supplements that they are supposed to be actively in the hunt for one of their competitors. They have a war chest and apparently are determined to use it. This will probably push the shares higher. A former director told me that there's a market imperative on them to do this but that is not any secret.

I'm really annoyed with myself for missing this one (SP +500% since 2008) and now very near all time high and Yield < 1.0% and a P/E > 25, it really is hard to see, how and when you could make money at this juncture? The only thing niggling me is the potential opportunities following the end of milk quotas in 2015, but between now and then?

RobertKK

Sonnenblumen wrote: »

I'm really annoyed with myself for missing this one (SP +500% since 2008) and now very near all time high and Yield < 1.0% and a P/E > 25, it really is hard to see, how and when you could make money at this juncture? The only thing niggling me is the potential opportunities following the end of milk quotas in 2015, but between now and then?

Best being a co-op shareholder, there was people at the EGM last year totally against the plan to form Glanbia Ingredients Ireland and owned by the co-op and the plc spin of shares from converting some co-op shares into plc shares, thankfully we got over 75% support and we got the share spin out, many farmers were happy given the costly spring and speaking to my accountant there was a lot of these shares sold.

You know what annoys me Sonnenblumen, we could have bought them at €10.68 last week...now €11.31 at 10:28am minus 15 minutes.

There sports nutrition section is growing very fast and this will drive the business, the new long life milk factory in Monaghan will allow exports to more countries.

lucky john

They also have their egg replacement product coming on stream now. They continue to innovative so are definitely set to grow. I don't think they will disappoint anyone and would be a safe investment (if there's such a thing).

zimmermania

lucky john wrote: »

They also have their egg replacement product coming on stream now. They continue to innovative so are definitely set to grow. I don't think they will disappoint anyone and would be a safe investment (if there's such a thing).

I think i should take the Buffet advice and stay for the long haul.The market for powdered milk and the by-products made by Glanbia can only grow,China and India are huge and Glanbia are positioned to exploit these new markets and there is always the possibility that a large group like GE might be tempted to make a bid for the company.

lucky john

zimmermania wrote: »

I think i should take the Buffet advice and stay for the long haul.The market for powdered milk and the by-products made by Glanbia can only grow,China and India are huge and Glanbia are positioned to exploit these new markets and there is always the possibility that a large group like GE might be tempted to make a bid for the company.

I agree. I learned a lesson with glanbia this year. I took a good profit when they were at 8 euro. There didn't seem to be much more in them at that stage and at 20 the pe seemed high. Buffets advice would be that if you pick a strong company with strong managment and continue to hold you will be rewarded. I'm applying that advice to smurfitt kappa at the moment and will continue to hold them for the long term.

pitrn

would it be worth buying smurfit kappa and glanbia at this point? any suggestions?

bella_doyle

pitrn wrote: »

would it be worth buying smurfit kappa and glanbia at this point? any suggestions?

absolutely , glanbia is down 4% today for no solid reason , will announce earnings in the coming weeks and their bound to be stroung

buy
buy
buy

RobertKK

bella_doyle wrote: »

absolutely , glanbia is down 4% today for no solid reason , will announce earnings in the coming weeks and their bound to be stroung

buy
buy
buy

Maybe the Dungarvan fire affected the share price along with a bad day for stocks in general.

freedominacup

RobertKK wrote: »

Maybe the Dungarvan fire affected the share price along with a bad day for stocks in general.

That's the equivalent of you losing a day old jex bull calf.

freedominacup

RobertKK wrote: »

Maybe the Dungarvan fire affected the share price along with a bad day for stocks in general.

That's the equivalent of you losing a day old jex bull calf.

mf240

freedominacup wrote: »

That's the equivalent of you losing a day old jex bull calf.

?
Has it anything to do with wmp? I think it would be a very safe long term investment.

Sonnenblumen

RobertKK wrote: »

Best being a co-op shareholder, there was people at the EGM last year totally against the plan to form Glanbia Ingredients Ireland and owned by the co-op and the plc spin of shares from converting some co-op shares into plc shares, thankfully we got over 75% support and we got the share spin out, many farmers were happy given the costly spring and speaking to my accountant there was a lot of these shares sold.

You know what annoys me Sonnenblumen, we could have bought them at €10.68 last week...now €11.31 at 10:28am minus 15 minutes.

There sports nutrition section is growing very fast and this will drive the business, the new long life milk factory in Monaghan will allow exports to more countries.

I see today's drop as a good buy opp for Monday, whatabout you RobertKK?

Timmaay

I bought a small amount on the spreadbetting account yesterday. Lets hope for a quick rebound on monday :P

zimmermania

zimmermania wrote: »

I think i should take the Buffet advice and stay for the long haul.The market for powdered milk and the by-products made by Glanbia can only grow,China and India are huge and Glanbia are positioned to exploit these new markets and there is always the possibility that a large group like GE might be tempted to make a bid for the company.

Phenominal growth in share price €13.35 this morning.Glad I held on to mine and there is a chance the price will continue to rise though there may be a few dips along the way.I remember persuading a friend of mine to buy Glanbia on the day foot and mouth disease was officially declared to have arrived in Britain.Ithink he paid as little as 47 cent per share and he bought around 12500.
I still slag him for getting out at around €2.90 and still lament the fact that I did not top up my shares at that price.A gem of a share and it it is still possible that one of the huge conglomerates could be tempted to make an offer for it.

zimmermania

zimmermania wrote: »

Phenominal growth in share price €13.35 this morning.Glad I held on to mine and there is a chance the price will continue to rise though there may be a few dips along the way.I remember persuading a friend of mine to buy Glanbia on the day foot and mouth disease was officially declared to have arrived in Britain.Ithink he paid as little as 47 cent per share and he bought around 12500.
I still slag him for getting out at around €2.90 and still lament the fact that I did not top up my shares at that price.A gem of a share and it it is still possible that one of the huge conglomerates could be tempted to make an offer for it.

€14.41 today,when is it going to stop.

zimmermania

zimmermania wrote: »

€14.41 today,when is it going to stop.

Yea that is the great imponderable,14.98 today and still solid.I met a high ranking Glanbia exec recently at a social event and while I could not look for info on the share price I told him the story of my friend who sold his shares for around €2.90 and we had a laugh about it.As we parted I said "he should have held on to them and he would be a happy man now".He sure would he replied and "nothing but good news coming down the line"
Make what you like of it,its a true story which suggests to me the sp will continue to grow.













2

RobertKK

Glanbia having a share spin out for co-op members, 10 million plc shares to be issued to the co-op shareholders.

I missed this news so was a really nice surprise when I got the letter today of what i should receive. There will be a vote in May, last time some idiots were gainst it, but the vast majority voted for it.

dinny_byrne

bought some shares in kerry for 65 euro a few weeks ago as their PE is 50% lower than that of glanbia , back a few euro but think it should be over seventy by year end , glanbia,s rise has been nothing short of astonishing this past five years , to think it was such a low risk investment , those who bought bank of ireland @ below 8 cents have seen a similar return but bank of ireland was a genuine risk for nationalisation for quite a while , no such risk existed with glanbia

zimmermania

dinny_byrne wrote: »

bought some shares in kerry for 65 euro a few weeks ago as their PE is 50% lower than that of glanbia , back a few euro but think it should be over seventy by year end , glanbia,s rise has been nothing short of astonishing this past five years , to think it was such a low risk investment , those who bought bank of ireland @ below 8 cents have seen a similar return but bank of ireland was a genuine risk for nationalisation for quite a while , no such risk existed with glanbia

I hope they kick on for you as the Glanbia phenomina continues,17.74 today perhaps they will hit 20 before the year is out.

lost_boy

zimmermania wrote: »

I hope they kick on for you as the Glanbia phenomina continues,17.74 today perhaps they will hit 20 before the year is out.

truly astonishing returns , i owned it from four euro to eight and from 9.50 to 11.50 , seems an age ago

zimmermania

€18.22 today,are we really headed for €20 before year-end?
I still have mine.

zimmermania

€19.40 today half year results out in august,it seems like more good news on the way and they may hit €20 before very long more,astonishing and best part is still have my 5,000.

Cute Hoor

zimmermania wrote: »

I bought 5000 at €1.18 in 20001,i still have them and now they are €11.40.How long can they go on rising?

Well done Zimmer, that is a tidy return!

zimmermania

Cute Hoor wrote: »

Well done Zimmer, that is a tidy return!

Thanks,but I have not made any money on Glanbia yet.
I believe there is a bit more in them yet and because the company is spread far and wide and continues to exploit the demand for "health" foods it is less likely to suffer any sort of news that would seriously depress the share price I think I will stay in for the time being.
Half year figures in a couple of weeks will tell us a lot and they still pay us a reasonable dividend,which is rare nowdays.

Sonnenblumen

Good to see SP continue to make progress but with a divi yield of < 0.6% and a PE of 40, it does seem to be all about growth in the SP?

This is one that I missed Methinks too late now?

zimmermania

Paddy Power is the one I missed and as a punter I should have seen the SP could only go one way.
But you can't win them all and as I only lost €6000 on BOI I count myself lucky.

zimmermania

Big boost to Glanbia share price today up more than 6% on strong results as the company continues to expand,the dividend is very good also and that is not to bee sneezed at.