The Champion Hurdle money back wit PP

SRFC

Ok could the mathematicians make themselves known please :pac:


For the punters who want a free bet on Hurricane fly what is the correct way of going about this? please keep this discussion about the numbers and not the horses chances please thanks.


What Im getting is 100 on Hurricane fly at current odds of 2/1 - 300 back


Then 62.21 on Zarkandar at 4/1 returns 311.05


47.86 on Rock on Ruby at 11/2 = 311.09


44.44 on Grandeout at 6/1 = 311.08


Then you have Binocular and Cinders and ashes so 28.88 on each at 10/1 would yield 317.68.


Thats a total of 211.07 staked for a minmum return of 311.05 on any them winning,add on your 100 on hurricane fly,


so he wins you collect 300e (200 profit) and you collect all your money back dockets off 211.07 staked on the losers.


He fails to win you get your money back with one of the horses winning above as the rest in the enteries have zero chance,so unless im after making a howler of the maths which im sure will be pointed out theres a free 100 quid bet on him lads :pac:

kiers47

SRFC wrote: »

Ok could the mathematicians make themselves known please :pac:


For the punters who want a free bet on Hurricane fly what is the correct way of going about this? please keep this discussion about the numbers and not the horses chances please thanks.


What Im getting is 100 on Hurricane fly at current odds of 2/1 - 300 back


Then 62.21 on Zarkandar at 4/1 returns 311.05


47.86 on Rock on Ruby at 11/2 = 311.09


44.44 on Grandeout at 6/1 = 311.08


Then you have Binocular and Cinders and ashes so 28.88 on each at 10/1 would yield 317.68.


Thats a total of 211.07 staked for a minmum return of 311.05 on any them winning,add on your 100 on hurricane fly,


so he wins you collect 300e (200 profit) and you collect all your money back dockets off 211.07 staked on the losers.


He fails to win you get your money back with one of the horses winning above as the rest in the enteries have zero chance,so unless im after making a howler of the maths which im sure will be pointed out theres a free 100 quid bet on him lads :pac:

It was an awful lot easier last year but i will do up a spreadsheet tomorrow or by the weekend if anyone hasn't done 1 before hand and post it here.

rossom

Max refund €100 per customer.

bop1977

SRFC wrote: »

Ok could the mathematicians make themselves known please :pac:


For the punters who want a free bet on Hurricane fly what is the correct way of going about this? please keep this discussion about the numbers and not the horses chances please thanks.


What Im getting is 100 on Hurricane fly at current odds of 2/1 - 300 back


Then 62.21 on Zarkandar at 4/1 returns 311.05


47.86 on Rock on Ruby at 11/2 = 311.09


44.44 on Grandeout at 6/1 = 311.08


Then you have Binocular and Cinders and ashes so 28.88 on each at 10/1 would yield 317.68.


Thats a total of 211.07 staked for a minmum return of 311.05 on any them winning,add on your 100 on hurricane fly,


so he wins you collect 300e (200 profit) and you collect all your money back dockets off 211.07 staked on the losers.


He fails to win you get your money back with one of the horses winning above as the rest in the enteries have zero chance,so unless im after making a howler of the maths which im sure will be pointed out theres a free 100 quid bet on him lads :pac:

from PP t&c

max refund per customer is eur/gbp 100.

mdwexford

Not hard to get around the max refund.

SRFC

Wouldnt be a problem getting on with the amound of shops he has,For the brave amongst us we can take out Cinders and ashes because he wont be winning any champion hurdle or I dont think ROR will win back to back Champions but thats another discussion,


Interested to see if many people will be doing the rounds this year?

Arctic89

Planning on doing the "rounds" myself SRFC, next Sunday evening. Have 5 shops lined up plus my online account.

I don't think I'll be leaving anything that lines up out of the bets though.

Has anyone ever had any problems with going around 3/4 different shops and getting money on?

battser

My mate did this last year, He doesn't even back horses but seen the offer is good at maths and cleaned up on sprinter.

I think you are just about right in your original post with the sums btw. Mine will be something similar to that. In town on Friday am gonna do the rounds.

cson

Yeah did this last year too. Very easy to do once you're in Dublin City Centre; lots of shops close together that you can work it out with.

Howjoe1

H

cson wrote: »

Yeah did this last year too. Very easy to do once you're in Dublin City Centre; lots of shops close together that you can work it out with.[/Quote

Are powers gauranteeing prices on ante post singles by any chance?

modmuffin

The smaller the field the better for this, anyone a good idea of what will run?

Hurricane Fly
Zarkander
Rock on Ruby
Grandeout
Cinders and Ashes
Binocular
Countrywide Flame
Khyber Kim?
Raya Star?
Balder Success?

Colonel Sanders

Steps to Freedom a definite possibility to line up looking at Betfair.

Would surely be 150+ on the day however

faoile@n

Do not do this at the current NRNB prices think of the overround :eek:

Wait for guaranteed odds unless you think a particular selection will shorten in the mean time.

kiers47

Spreadsheet attached for a 500e stake. i assume the prices will be quite different on the day. But if ye just change the first line it will update.

SRFC

kiers47 wrote: »

Spreadsheet attached for a 500e stake. i assume the prices will be quite different on the day. But if ye just change the first line it will update.

An that lads is what you call free money the brave men will take the rags out of the bet :pac:

mdwexford

So if HF wins we get our 500 back and if anyone else wins we makes 88 profit.

Is that the best way to do it?

Colonel Sanders

mdwexford wrote: »

So if HF wins we get our 500 back and if anyone else wins we makes 88 profit.

Is that the best way to do it?

I've skewed my returns towards Zarkandar, RoR & Grandouet. Clear about a monkey for each. Make small money for C&A, Binocular & CW Flame

I might cover some of the rags on the day

Slattsy

I couldnt be arsed tbh !!

I may back 2 or 3 in the CH in PP, and if HF wins then i'll get my money back.
And if he doesnt, and neither do the 2/3 i backed then so be it.

battser

SRFC wrote: »

An that lads is what you call free money the brave men will take the rags out of the bet :pac:

80 on Zarkander
60 ROR
50 Grandu
50 C&A

Total Stake 240 min profit 60

Not gonna bother with a stake on HF I'll just take money back if he wins.

Bit of risk involved but don't see anyone outside these winning it.

chipsdave

The 'weak ' however will blow their potential profits while they are doing the rounds of the shops on Virtual Racing etc :rolleyes:

Juwwi

€88 potential profit from €500 is very bad.

This will be the worst money back special so far for guaranteeing a profit.

is that 118% over round right at the moment.
what is the usual over round to be expected on the day of the race at cheltenham .?

For anyone who's never done this before and is thinking of doing it here is
a few tips I have figured out from backing the field in previous years.

1..Dont do all the dockets in the exact same handwriting just incase they
are monitoring €100 bets.(Im siting here with a tin foil hat on )

2..Write out all the dockets at home first with all the stakes worked out and on the dockets.Just put the price on in the shop in case they change on route.

3..Invest in a packet of envelopes and put each docket and stake in it
then write the shop name on envelope.
Makes it much easier for the collecting part if Hurricane Fly wins.

4..In my opinion its better to back all the other horses even the 100/1 shots.Its either worth doing covering the field or not.

If you leave it till the shops to start writing out the bets and then pulling out wads of cash its easy to make a mistake like missing out a horse or lose money on the floor somewhere.

kiers47

robbie1977 wrote: »

is that 118% over round right at the moment.

I believe so but if someone has come up with a different 1 please correct me.

I would be thinking in the region of 110-115. I would be surprised if any higher or lower than this.

Also it is still an €88 risk free. Last year it was around 180ish for 500 so I expect it to harden up to at least 120-130.

Juwwi

kiers47 wrote: »

I believe so but if someone has come up with a different 1 please correct me.

I would be thinking in the region of 110-115. I would be surprised if any higher or lower than this.

Also it is still an €88 risk free. Last year it was around 180ish for 500 so I expect it to harden up to at least 120-130.

Thats true its not often you get the chance of a risk free bet with the bookies.

Local_Chap

Are ye doing this now or waiting until PP go best odds guaranteed?

Crash Bang Wall

kiers47 wrote: »

Spreadsheet attached for a 500e stake. i assume the prices will be quite different on the day. But if ye just change the first line it will update.

I could be a bit of a thick here so apologies in advance.

You spend 500 on Fly

500 on the Field

If the Field wins, you get back 588, but you have spent €1000.

I can see how you are up money if HF wins, but not if something else does

Nonoperational

Your not backing hurricane fly outright.

If it wins you get your €500 back, and had a risk free shot at making €88.

Crash Bang Wall

Nonoperational wrote: »

Your not backing hurricane fly outright.

If it wins you get your €500 back, and had a risk free shot at making €88.

Ah Cheers, makes sense now

Imhof Tank

Crash Bang Wall wrote: »

I could be a bit of a thick here so apologies in advance.

You spend 500 on Fly

500 on the Field

If the Field wins, you get back 588, but you have spent €1000.

I can see how you are up money if HF wins, but not if something else does

Thought so too. There are 2 separate opportunities tho' - the €88 to €500 arbitrage on the field put up by Kiers, and the OP's "free bet" on HF.

Arbs come up every so often with these specials but a truly free bet on the fav is well spotted SRFC - you get some stick on this forum for your style of posting but this is good homework. Hope he wins for you now.

toonarmyboy

Are you sure the prices will be that generous on the day. Ror has already gone in to 4-1 and I can only imagine grandouet going in too

Colonel Sanders

toonarmyboy wrote: »

Are you sure the prices will be that generous on the day. Ror has already gone in to 4-1 and I can only imagine grandouet going in too

Powers will definitely bet to a higher over round than their competitors. SPs are a disgrace these days so getting guaranteed odds might not do a whole ton for you

They did this offer on last year's Arkle & 2nd jolly Al Ferof started 3/1 but Betfair SP was almost a full point higher. Pretty sure he touched 11/4 on the show too when 5.0+ on Betfair

dk6dk6

€500 for the sake of winning €88, and you can still have a shock winner and blow €500. Hardly worth the hassle is it. Just be braver and throw €100 on 2 from the big 3 of Zarkander, Grandouet or Rock on Ruby. Risking €200 but a decent chance of getting your money back or basically having a 6/4 winner.

toonarmyboy

dk6dk6 wrote: »

€500 for the sake of winning €88, and you can still have a shock winner and blow €500. Hardly worth the hassle is it. Just be braver and throw €100 on 2 from the big 3 of Zarkander, Grandouet or Rock on Ruby. Risking €200 but a decent chance of getting your money back or basically having a 6/4 winner.

there's no blowing 500 quid. All the possibilities have been covered. There's no risk of losing

Juwwi

This bet is returning a much healthier €137 possible profit for €500 now.

Here is a handy dutching calculator
http://www.oddschecker.com/betting-tools/dutching-calculator.html

Howjoe1

kiers47 wrote: »

Spreadsheet attached for a 500e stake. i assume the prices will be quite different on the day. But if ye just change the first line it will update.

has anyone done an update of this with current odds and NR?

SRFC

SRFC wrote: »

Ok could the mathematicians make themselves known please :pac:


For the punters who want a free bet on Hurricane fly what is the correct way of going about this? please keep this discussion about the numbers and not the horses chances please thanks.


What Im getting is 100 on Hurricane fly at current odds of 2/1 - 300 back


Then 62.21 on Zarkandar at 4/1 returns 311.05


47.86 on Rock on Ruby at 11/2 = 311.09


44.44 on Grandeout at 6/1 = 311.08


Then you have Binocular and Cinders and ashes so 28.88 on each at 10/1 would yield 317.68.


Thats a total of 211.07 staked for a minmum return of 311.05 on any them winning,add on your 100 on hurricane fly,


so he wins you collect 300e (200 profit) and you collect all your money back dockets off 211.07 staked on the losers.


He fails to win you get your money back with one of the horses winning above as the rest in the enteries have zero chance,so unless im after making a howler of the maths which im sure will be pointed out theres a free 100 quid bet on him lads :pac:

And there you have it lads the handiest 200 risk free profit you will ever come across Didnt do it myself because of the effort and confidence I had in the horse but hope some people took them for a few quid.