Ryanair Chase (Revisited)

ste2010

The Ryanair Chase made its debut at the Cheltenham festival in 2005 and is registered as The Festival Trophy.

Run over 2m5f this grade one chase is seen as an easier alternative to the Gold Cup but has attracted quality fields in its first eight runnings.

Ryanair Chase Trends

8/8had no more than four runs since October
8/8 had an official rating of at least 1527/8had previous winning form at Cheltenham7/8came from the first three in the betting market7/8had winning form at 2m 5f or above6/8had a top three finish last time out5/8had placed in either the Paddy Power or the December Gold Cup5/8had run at least eleven times over fences

Ryanair Analysis


The Paddy Power and the December Gold Cup used to be the first port of call for trends followers for this race but the quality of the Ryanair field is improving every year and it might not be a coincidence that the last three runnings have not been covered by that stat.

Winning form at 2m 5f looks a definite requirement with only the first winner of the race, Thisthatandtother, not ticking that trend box. The top three home in last year's renewal all met that criteria.

As with many of the races at the Cheltenham Festival course winning form also looks to be advisable with only last year's winner Riverside Theatre not having previously scored at the course.

Ryanair Chase Last Eight Winners


Table below shows the last eight winners of the race, their age at the time of winning, trainer, jockey and odds (starting price).
YearHorseAge/WgtTrainerJockeyPrice2012Riverside Theatre8-11-10N HendersonB Geraghty7/2F2011Albertas Run10-11-10JJ ONeillAP McCoy6/12010Albertas Run9-11-10JJ ONeillAP McCoy14/12009Imperial Commander8-11-10N Twiston-DaviesP Brennan6/12008Our Vic10-11-10D PipeT Murphy4/12007Taranis6-11-0P NichollsR Walsh9/22006Fondmort10-11-0N HendersonM Fitzgerald10/3JF2005Thisthatandtother10-11-3P NichollsR Walsh20/1


Ryanair Preview


The class of the type of winner required for the Ryanair has been steadily improving from top grade handicapper to the horses just below Gold Cup and Champion Chase standard.

The key to ante-post bets in this race is finding a horse where this race is definitely the target. In too many cases this will be one of a number of options as connections decide between Champion Chase and Gold Cup alternatives or maybe even a handicap.

TheMilkyPirate

First lieutenant! Winning form over C&D when winning the Neptune and an excellent second on his only other visit to the course to the current gold cup fav bobs worth in the RSA. This is his trip and this is his race.

tipster

if first lieutenant goes i think he"ll win if he doesnt sizing europe if he goes for it

ste2010

Ive added the trends and analysis (copied from another site for peoples benefit) to this and started a clean thread as its clear the other thread was going nowhere for the ryanair and entries such as flemenstar and likes have been ommitted from entries.

Ive shortlisted my 3 below. All have strong Cheltenham form and all are at the top of or close to (Sizing Europe) the top of their game at the moment. All meet a high % of the trends also. I initially considered riverside theatre and finians rainbow on the shortlist but Ive drawn the conclusion that last years win was a weak race and a laboursome one at that particulary for Riverside theatre. Have a look at the horses behind riverside theatre and watch the race you can be the judge. (no disrespect to the class veteran that is albertas run but I believe he has aged enough not to be in contention to WIN this race) Re Finians Rainbow I dont know what to say but his last 2 runs were shocking on ground he doesnt like. If hes not doing the work at home which has been reported and his aim according to NH could now be the champion chase there is no reason to include him on the list.


First Lieutenant = ticks nearly all of the boxes as per above. Its clear the signs for FL are very promising this year. he looks to have improved to no end based on his run in the hennessy and the lexus. He has shown extremely strong form outside of Cheltenham this year (unlike last year or the year before-not that his form was particulary bad the year before, but he has really put it up to the big guns this year) which is a serious positive given his mindblowing performances at Cheltenham (where he really comes to life). I think FL could hold his own in the GC but it looks as if this is the race of choice for him. Its no coincidence Albertas Runs record in this race dropping back in trip after winning the RSA given he could quiet not shake it with the best of them above 3m. Why? Because he's a true top class 2.5 - 3m stayer. Whats different between albertas run and FL here is FL ran strong RSA race last year with the GC fav but unlike Albertas run, FL has serious toe to add to his proven ability to run a strong and fast run 21f and also just about stay the 3m trip at speed. Go back to the Hennessy - Be it over 3m 2 and given the race was run differently than a 21f Have a look how far out he had the GC fav bobs worth off the bridle. He is a serious high speed cruiser and around cheltenham over 21f most will drop like flies around him when he rounds the final bend. His run in the neptune over similar distance over hurdles nailing the Champion Rock on Ruby on the line as he stayed up the hill is another race to go back to when comparing his ability to handle the trip and course. Cue card and Sizing Europe are no doubt the more flashier animals and he will have to cope with their speed but I think he is capable. His consistency to run his race, his jumping reliable and his hardy ability to shake it with the best there is no doubt when you factor all these things he has the profile of a winner.

Cue Card = Following his win in the ascot chase I was not overly impressed with him. His jumping wasnt and isnt always fluent, the proximity to captain chris in this race and joe tizzard just turns me off him. However, that race was over 22f on a flat course which suits captain chris, I still think he is capable of throwing down a serious challenge in the Ryanair and in some regard i think FL and cue card are quiet similar in terms of speed and the distance theyll stay. Ill continue with a write up tomorrow on Cue card..up early for work.
Sizing Europe = tomorrow

Hoofer

First Lieutenant will win this race...better ground will suit, relishes and acts on undulated tracks, proven course form, this is his track and this is his optimum race.

tipster

the only job now is to get mouse to run him in it and its proving difficult

Gringo180

tipster wrote: »

the only job now is to get mouse to run him in it and its proving difficult

Baffling that Mouse is persisting on the Gold Cup as any top dick and harry can see he he wont last home.

UrbanSea

Have only backed China Rock at 25/1. Travelled supremely well in last year's GC as well as this year's Lexus. Should get a good run for my money

MoscowFlyer

All over First Lieutenant if he runs

andyman

RichieLawlessness wrote: »

Have only backed China Rock at 25/1. Travelled supremely well in last year's GC as well as this year's Lexus. Should get a good run for my money

I'm on China Rock as well. One of the best when it comes to travelling in my opinion. Definitely worth an e/w bet.

sting60

Firstly the ground will be so important to see who wins and nobody knows at this stage what it will be like.The Ryanair is a Grade 1 and First Lieutenant has never won a Grade 1 so he has to improve to win even if he is rated 170.I dont think First Lieutenant or Cue Card will win and the horses who appeal to me are Riverside THeatre,Somersby and Champion Court.RT has had ulser treatment and is going to run his usual blinding race at his favourate track.Somersby was off for a long time with splint problems and ran a blinder last time out only to get tired close home.Champion Court ran a super race from the front in the King George[backed him 50/1] where he had most off the bridle turning for home.I dont know if Finians Rainbow runs in this or the GC.If he runs here then its a different ball game as he will have to much class for everything.My lay of the meeting is First Lieutenant.

Hulk Hands

sting60 wrote: »

Firstly the ground will be so important to see who wins and nobody knows at this stage what it will be like.The Ryanair is a Grade 1 and First Lieutenant has never won a Grade 1 so he has to improve to win even if he is rated 170.I dont think First Lieutenant or Cue Card will win and the horses who appeal to me are Riverside THeatre,Somersby and Champion Court.RT has had ulser treatment and is going to run his usual blinding race at his favourate track.Somersby was off for a long time with splint problems and ran a blinder last time out only to get tired close home.Champion Court ran a super race from the front in the King George[backed him 50/1] where he had most off the bridle turning for home.I dont know if Finians Rainbow runs in this or the GC.If he runs here then its a different ball game as he will have to much class for everything.My lay of the meeting is First Lieutenant.

There's actually so much wrong with that I think you might be messing. FL has won a Grade 1, albiet not over fences. Riverside's fav track?? It's far from his favourite track. He was coaxed up by Geraghty to win last year but didn't really run well. He ran a poor third in an Arkle, running past tired horses at the end. Ascot is by far his favourite track. Somersby doesn't stay and will go for the CC. Champion Court certainly had none of the first 3 off the bridle in the KG. Finians runs in the Gold Cup? Perhaps you mean CC.

tipster

finians rainbow runs in the champion chase

sting60

Hulk Hands wrote: »

There's actually so much wrong with that I think you might be messing. FL has won a Grade 1, albiet not over fences. Riverside's fav track?? It's far from his favourite track. He was coaxed up by Geraghty to win last year but didn't really run well. He ran a poor third in an Arkle, running past tired horses at the end. Ascot is by far his favourite track. Somersby doesn't stay and will go for the CC. Champion Court certainly had none of the first 3 off the bridle in the KG. Finians runs in the Gold Cup? Perhaps you mean CC.

I dont like having a go at any post because I believe everybody is right until after the event.Let me correct you Firstly,Riverside Theatre has run his best ever race at Cheltenham by 5lbs from any other track,Fact.Can I also refer you to the replay of the King George on Stephens day.The commontator says "Champion Court has them at it Grand Cru niggled,Cue Card ridden, Long Run is now been ridden,Champion Court is running a mighty race".You have done very very little research into your retort,shame on you.

Hulk Hands

sting60 wrote: »

I dont like having a go at any post because I believe everybody is right until after the event.Let me correct you Firstly,Riverside Theatre has run his best ever race at Cheltenham by 5lbs from any other track,Fact.Can I also refer you to the replay of the King George on Stephens day.The commontator says "Champion Court has them at it Grand Cru niggled,Cue Card ridden, Long Run is now been ridden,Champion Court is running a mighty race".You have done very very little research into your retort,shame on you.

Niggled doesn't mean he has them all off the bridle. He had none of the first 3 off the bridle, I stand by my point. Cue Card was ridden because the tank hit empty, not because of anything Champion Court was doing. Keep thinking that Cheltenham is Riversides favourite track. He beat Medermit on the bridle at Ascot the run before last years Ryanair, yet was all out to beat him and Albertas at Cheltenham, where anyone can see only a superb ride got him home. His only other run at Cheltenham was a terrible 5th in the Arkle. Where are you getting the 5lb better from? He ran to 165 at Ascot and 168 in the Ryanair. You fancy 4 different horses in the race, two of which are non runners. That's sums your nonsense up

UrbanSea

China Rock taken out. I assume due to his owner's want to run him in the Gold Cup despite him being a blatant non stayer.