New figures: Property price slide continues

Poor Standard of Mahd

Ireland's housing market remained unstable at the start of the year with prices down 0.6 per cent last month alone.

According to the official register, property values fell again in the new year after signs of recovery in the autumn.

The fall recorded for January was the largest single monthly drop since June of last year and took the drop over the previous 12 months to 3.3 per cent.

The Central Statistics Office (CSO) say the average price of a house is half of what it was at the peak of the boom in spring 2007. In Dublin, house prices are
down 54 per cent.

Caveats: Dublin houses are more-or-less flat bearing in mind general inflation. Also cash purchases - about 50% of the market - are not included, and it's likely that cash buyers get much better deals (i.e. lower prices again).

Edit: link

D3PO

Poor Standard of Mahd wrote: »

Caveats: Dublin houses are more-or-less flat bearing in mind general inflation. Also cash purchases - about 50% of the market - are not included, and it's likely that cash buyers get much better deals (i.e. lower prices again).

any chance you can share the link for said article.

Thanks

On a seperate note I hate this stuff about Irelands property market. Theres multiple property markets in Ireland, lumping everything together to get a headline figure is a lazy way to report everything IMO.

Tigger

welcome new poster
also cograts to D3PO on being made a moderator

Scortho

But but but the info said they were rising!:(

Poor Standard of Mahd

Scortho wrote: »

But but but the info said they were rising!:(

According to the Indo, prices have been 'stabilising' since 2008. :pac:

Joke of a paper.

gurramok

Here http://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/cso-figures-reveal-slight-drop-in-national-house-prices-586433.html

As discussing Dublin houses(not apartments), its a roller coaster every month.

Jan2012.. -4.1
Feb... -0.7
Mar.. +0.7
Apr... +0.2
May.. +0.5
June.. -0.8
July.. -0.2
Aug.. -0.7
Sept...+2.6
Oct ...-0.2
Nov.. +2.7
Dec.. -1.7
Jan 2013...+0.3

Remember these measurements are based on mortgage drawdowns and exclude cash buyers.

khards

The only way prices can rise is if banks lend ever greater amounts to people to outbid each other on the same old houses.
Since banks are sitting on a massive pile of underwater mortgages and bad debt they are hardly likely to make any risky loans.
As the banking are still stabilizing and have a such huge numer of poorly performing loans it will take a decade or more to resolve and start any silly lending. Hopefully by that time the EU will save us an introduce some sensible legislation like 75% LTV and 3.5 Salary maximum mortgages.

House prices can and will only rise with ever greater amounts of lending.

quad_red

As someone who just missed out on a house in Dublin, I am worried.

There is f**k all supply in the areas we're looking at and prices are rising.

Prices rose in Dublin in January. Surely the removal of MIR should've at least seen prices go static?

http://namawinelake.wordpress.com/2013/02/28/declines-in-property-prices-accelerating-january-2013-cso-indices-published/

Zamboni

quad_red wrote: »

As someone who just missed out on a house in Dublin, I am worried.

There is f**k all supply in the areas we're looking at and prices are rising.

Prices rose in Dublin in January. Surely the removal of MIR should've at least seen prices go static?

http://namawinelake.wordpress.com/2013/02/28/declines-in-property-prices-accelerating-january-2013-cso-indices-published/

Not really. Depends on the number of transactions and type.
Don't be too worried.
Bank guarantee removal and green light for repossessions in appropriate circumstances should turn your frown upside down.

khards

So everyone in Dublin has decided to jump on the FTB wagon together (heard mentality), partly driven by articles in the independent which started the self-enforcing "prices are going up must get on the ladder" mentality.

Here are a couple of questions for those in Dublin:

If everyone is deciding to buy a house at the same time are rents falling?
If rents are not falling where are the extra people coming from who are buying?
If it is investors buying then why are rents not falling?

D3PO

khards wrote: »

So everyone in Dublin has decided to jump on the FTB wagon together (heard mentality), partly driven by articles in the independent which started the self-enforcing "prices are going up must get on the ladder" mentality.

seriously if thats your understanding of whats happening currently in the Dublin property market you need to educate youself.

Poor Standard of Mahd

quad_red wrote: »

As someone who just missed out on a house in Dublin, I am worried.

There is f**k all supply in the areas we're looking at and prices are rising.

Prices rose in Dublin in January. Surely the removal of MIR should've at least seen prices go static?

http://namawinelake.wordpress.com/2013/02/28/declines-in-property-prices-accelerating-january-2013-cso-indices-published/

There's f*** all supply because there is about 80,000 properties out there where the mortgage is not being paid but they are not being repossessed. And there's no appetite for dealing with the issue either - you're worse than Hitler if you suggest that people who don't pay their mortgage should be required to surrender the house. You don't keep your rented home if you don't pay the rent, do you?

Irish people like house prices to be high. On average, we are quite, quite stupid when it comes to property.

geraldishere

:DCant wait till they bottom out..

have 140k just sitting there licking its lips waiting for it to happen

khards

geraldishere wrote: »

:DCant wait till they bottom out..

have 140k just sitting there licking its lips waiting for it to happen

You are not the only one.

D3PO

Poor Standard of Mahd wrote: »

There's f*** all supply because there is about 80,000 properties out there where the mortgage is not being paid but they are not being repossessed. And there's no appetite for dealing with the issue either - you're worse than Hitler if you suggest that people who don't pay their mortgage should be required to surrender the house. You don't keep your rented home if you don't pay the rent, do you?

Irish people like house prices to be high. On average, we are quite, quite stupid when it comes to property.

this is the misnomer people have. There ARE NOT 80,000 properties out there where the mortgage is not being paid. There isnt a figure even close to that.

The classification of mortgage arrears considers all mortgages that have been restructured, so those paying interest only, those who extended their term but are still paying interest and capital on these longer terms and those that are paying interest and some capital are all bundled into this figure.

as for the you dont keep your rental if you dont pay, actually you do. The process of eviction for a landlord is long and laborious. A tenant or a non paying mortgage holder can both stay for significant lengths of time whilst in default.

khards

Here is a quizz for you all:

There are 3 flats and 6 3-bed semis for sale in the whole of Co.Dublin.
All of them are in bad areas in poor condition.

a) No other property is for sale in Dublin.
b) banks will only lend 1 x salary and 50% LTV.

1) What do you think the properties would be fetching?
2) what would you be willing to pay for them?
3) If banks suddenly started lending 10x salary 100% LTV what do you think the properties would be fetching?

Poor Standard of Mahd

D3PO wrote: »

this is the misnomer people have. There ARE NOT 80,000 properties out there where the mortgage is not being paid. There isnt a figure even close to that.

The classification of mortgage arrears considers all mortgages that have been restructured, so those paying interest only, those who extended their term but are still paying interest and capital on these longer terms and those that are paying interest and some capital are all bundled into this figure.

Interesting spin. These are the figures from June last year - they are almost certainly worse now:

In arrears up to 90 days 45,165
In arrears 91 to 180 days 17,553
In arrears over 180 days 65,698

So over 65,000 are at least six months behind in their payments. Many of these probably haven't paid a cent in years. Plus another 63,000 odd who are three months or more in arrears.

The arrears for those 66k-odd people who are 6 months or more in arrears totalled €13.3 billion.

Source: Central Bank of Ireland.

Poor Standard of Mahd

geraldishere wrote: »

are you serious there is well more than 6 3-bed semis for sale in Dublin ya gob****e

http://www.myhome.ie/residential/dublin/semi-detached-house-for-sale?minbeds=3

I think you may have missed his point somewhat.

khards

geraldishere wrote: »

i sense you have retardation

Thanks, that is the best compliment I have received all day

Anyhow,

It is the 20,000 properties 720 days in arrears that you want to keep an eye on. Those are the houses that will be repossessed first.

I suspect that many of the repo's will be great family houses in good locations as these are the houses that people were eager to overstretch themselves on and get into trouble with.

Ritchi

Poor Standard of Mahd wrote: »

Many of these probably haven't paid a cent in years.

I think his point was in issue to that. We only seem to have stats for those in arrears, but how many of those mortgages are actually in trouble of defaulting?

We don't really know, but the guess would be that very few actually haven't paid a cent in years. Most are sustainable arrears, where they are interest only or some sustainable agreement has been made in the bank, where they are unlikely to get repossessed unless the country takes another turn for the worse.

D3PO

Poor Standard of Mahd wrote: »

Interesting spin. These are the figures from June last year - they are almost certainly worse now:



So over 65,000 are at least six months behind in their payments. Many of these probably haven't paid a cent in years. Plus another 63,000 odd who are three months or more in arrears.

The arrears for those 66k-odd people who are 6 months or more in arrears totalled €13.3 billion.

Source: Central Bank of Ireland.

Its not a spin. Read the source you quoted yourself. Page 4

restructured mortages circa 84K not in arrears circa 40k

therefore 44k of the mortgages in arrears are recieving some level of payment on them.

If you then go back to your original post you will see you said these mortgages in arrears are not being paid on.

Where its closer to 35k are not being paid and 40k are being paid at some level from an arrears perspective.

But this doesnt make for as good a headline for the media

riclad

Theres at least 4 different markets in dublin,
northside,southside, corporation houses,apartments ,old houses,
Houses less than 20 years old.
Look on daft.ie ,plenty of houses for sale,
Statistics, are deceptive.
i look at certain areas,
eg Clonsilla average price for 3bed semi -d has dropped around 40k,
in the since winter 2011.From 180 to 140k on average.
You can take one area and say there,s not many houses for sale.

khards

Ritchi wrote: »

I think his point was in issue to that. We only seem to have stats for those in arrears, but how many of those mortgages are actually in trouble of defaulting?

We don't really know, but the guess would be that very few actually haven't paid a cent in years. Most are sustainable arrears, where they are interest only or some sustainable agreement has been made in the bank, where they are unlikely to get repossessed unless the country takes another turn for the worse.

I for one believe that many of them will require repossession, I base this on the following:

90% of the people I have known to take out mortgages have taken out the maximum that they could over the longest period possible.

How the feck are you going to sustainably restructure someone who has already agreed to pay the bank a huge amount of money for the rest of their working life?

D3PO

khards wrote: »

I for one believe that many of them will require repossession, I base this on the following:

90% of the people I have known to take out mortgages have taken out the maximum that they could over the longest period possible.

How the feck are you going to sustainably restructure someone who has already agreed to pay the bank a huge amount of money for the rest of their working life?

all your posts are waaaay to simplictic in terms of looking at the situation.

Even in the situation of the 90% of people you refer to. It is much more in the interest of the bank to put these people on Interest only for a period of a few years whilst the individuals look to improve their financial circumstances than to reposess.

its far more beneficial than them going through the process of reposession and reselling an asset quite frankly they dont want in the first place.

likewise other restructuring methods like payment holiday on 50% of the mortgage etc are far more appealing ot the banks, again giving the individual the opportunity to get back to a position whereby they can start to afford the mortgage again.

etc etc.

just because you took out the max over the max length of time doesnt mean there arent options the bank would prefer to look at and that in theory at least are viable restructing methods over reposession.

Ritchi

khards wrote: »

I for one believe that many of them will require repossession, I base this on the following:

90% of the people I have known to take out mortgages have taken out the maximum that they could over the longest period possible.

How the feck are you going to sustainably restructure someone who has already agreed to pay the bank a huge amount of money for the rest of their working life?

I'm sure you'll agree that basing an assumption over the whole population based on a few people you know isn't the most accurate way of coming to a conclusion.

It may well be true, but I can just as easily say that 100% of people that I know that took out a mortgage in the past 10 years, are not in fear of repossession.

Poor Standard of Mahd

D3PO wrote: »

Its not a spin. Read the source you quoted yourself. Page 4

restructured mortages circa 84K not in arrears circa 40k

therefore 44k of the mortgages in arrears are recieving some level of payment on them.

If you then go back to your original post you will see you said these mortgages in arrears are not being paid on.

Where its closer to 35k are not being paid and 40k are being paid at some level from an arrears perspective.

But this doesnt make for as good a headline for the media

Here is what it says:

Total residential mortgage loan accounts outstanding that are classified as restructured: 84,941

of which:
Not in arrears 40,221

Which is to say, of the 761k mortgages in total, 84k of them have been restructured. 40k of those 84k are not in arrears. So 44k of mortgages that have already been restructured (gone interest only, term lengthened etc.) have fallen into arrears again. These are hopeless cases - 44,000 of them.

You have a fair point though in that, of the 120,000 plus mortgages in arrears, apart from the 44k that are clearly hopeless, it is not clear how many more of them are also hopeless cases. What would your guess be?

Poor Standard of Mahd

Ritchi wrote: »

I think his point was in issue to that. We only seem to have stats for those in arrears, but how many of those mortgages are actually in trouble of defaulting?

Ritchi, ALL of those mortgages are in default. Once you miss a payment, technically you are in default AIUI.

riclad

Many btl, investors would be better off,if house was sold, eg 200k,loan,
house sold, they owe the bank,105k.
AT least they save on insurance,maintenance, service charges etc

D3PO

Poor Standard of Mahd wrote: »

Here is what it says:

Which is to say, of the 761k mortgages in total, 84k of them have been restructured. 40k of those 84k are not in arrears. So 44k of mortgages that have already been restructured (gone interest only, term lengthened etc.) have fallen into arrears again. These are hopeless cases - 44,000 of them.

You have a fair point though in that, of the 120,000 plus mortgages in arrears, apart from the 44k that are clearly hopeless, how many more of them are also hopeless cases. What would your guess be?

my point was you said these mortgages in arreas were not being paid. My view is that is not correct they are being paid to a certain degree but clearly not to the full extent.

its not 120k in arrears as i read it. My read is that the 80 odd k includes those restructred that are now in arrears.

how many are hopeless is anybodies guess. What is fair to say is those 20k of home loans over 2 years in arrears are beyond recovery IMO. So first things first those 20k will need to be dealt with in terms of reposession.

Freeing up bank resources to deal with the reaming arrears in more detail and try and figure out what is recoverable and what needs reposession of the remaining mortgages in distress.

Poor Standard of Mahd

D3PO wrote: »

my point was you said these mortgages in arreas were not being paid. My view is that is not correct they are being paid to a certain degree but clearly not to the full extent.

its not 120k in arrears as i read it. My read is that the 80 odd k includes those restructred that are now in arrears.

I'm pretty sure it's 120k in arrears: I don't know how else to interpret this:

Arrears:
Total mortgage arrears cases outstanding:
In arrears up to 90 days 45,165
In arrears 91 to 180 days 17,553
In arrears over 180 days 65,698

D3PO wrote: »

how many are hopeless is anybodies guess. What is fair to say is those 20k of home loans over 2 years in arrears are beyond recovery IMO. So first things first those 20k will need to be dealt with in terms of reposession.

Freeing up bank resources to deal with the reaming arrears in more detail and try and figure out what is recoverable and what needs reposession of the remaining mortgages in distress.

Agreed.

D3PO

Poor Standard of Mahd wrote: »

I'm pretty sure it's 120k in arrears: I don't know how else to interpret this:


Agreed.

looks like your right re 120k i must have missed that somehow.

roro2

Poor Standard of Mahd wrote: »

I'm pretty sure it's 120k in arrears: I don't know how else to interpret this:


Agreed.

Updated for Q3 (just owner-occupied, not BTL):

135,628 in arrears of some duration.

Of which:
68,227 in arrears of up to 180 days
67,401 in arrears of greater than 180 days
19,541 in arrears of greater than 720 days.

All these numbers include accounts that have been restructured but are also in arrears (not all are back in arrears again - some never got lifted out of arrears). A further 43,742 are restructured but not in arrears - therefore not included in the numbers above.

There is no info on the size of the arrears - other than an average of €12,135 per account in arrears. So if an account is €1 in arrears from a year ago, it still gets counted. As is a case where there has been no payments for a year.

http://www.centralbank.ie/polstats/stats/mortgagearrears/Pages/Data.aspx

Victor

geraldishere wrote: »

none of yous have a clue thats why you'll all be broke bitches for the rest of your pathetic lives....

I see you've been banned.

Moderator

Victor

geraldishere wrote: »

are you serious there is well more than 6 3-bed semis for sale in Dublin ya gob****e

http://www.myhome.ie/residential/dublin/semi-detached-house-for-sale?minbeds=3

Abuse not welcome

Moderator

lima

geraldishere wrote: »

:DCant wait till they bottom out..

have 140k just sitting there licking its lips waiting for it to happen

waiting meself too!

lima

Poor Standard of Mahd wrote: »

There's f*** all supply because there is about 80,000 properties out there where the mortgage is not being paid but they are not being repossessed. And there's no appetite for dealing with the issue either - you're worse than Hitler if you suggest that people who don't pay their mortgage should be required to surrender the house. You don't keep your rented home if you don't pay the rent, do you?

Irish people like house prices to be high. On average, we are quite, quite stupid when it comes to property.

I sit and hope for a move on repos, waiting for those people to get kicked out of the houses so that the market reaches it true value - and there are a lot of us out there

Poor Standard of Mahd

lima wrote: »

I sit and hope for a move on repos, waiting for those people to get kicked out of the houses so that the market reaches it true value - and there are a lot of us out there

The fact that there is a lot of you out there rather mitigates against your desire for cheaper property, don't you think?

Were you annoyed by those unbearable gloating property owners during the bubble who told you how much money they had 'made' with their property?

anncoates

lima wrote: »

I sit and hope for a move on repos, waiting for those people to get kicked out of the houses

Charming.

Villa05

D3PO wrote: »

this is the misnomer people have. There ARE NOT 80,000 properties out there where the mortgage is not being paid. There isnt a figure even close to that.

The classification of mortgage arrears considers all mortgages that have been restructured, so those paying interest only, those who extended their term but are still paying interest and capital on these longer terms and those that are paying interest and some capital are all bundled into this figure.

as for the you dont keep your rental if you dont pay, actually you do. The process of eviction for a landlord is long and laborious. A tenant or a non paying mortgage holder can both stay for significant lengths of time whilst in default.

As of Quarter 3 2012, there were 67,401 owner Occupied mortgages in arrears of 6 months or more. This is the point at where repossessions occur in every other sane economy.
The full breakdown is as follows:
Residential
In arrears 181 to 360 days: 23,035
In arrears 361 to 720 days: 24,825
In arrears over 720 days: 19,541
Total 67,401

Buy to Let
In arrears 181 to 360 days 6,976
In arrears 361 to 720 days 8,224
In arrears over 720 days 6,628
Total 14, 852

http://www.centralbank.ie/polstats/stats/mortgagearrears/Pages/releases.aspx
http://www.irisheconomy.ie/index.php/2012/12/13/mortgage-arrears-statistics/

Note: Performing Restructured mortgages (interest only. extend and pretend) are not included as by definition they are not in arrears with the new terms of the mortgage