Monday 18 February

rossom

4.30 Southwell

Bobs Ticket 20/1

Bobs Ticket could is more likely to be a miss than a hit but I thought he shaped very well for a long way on his 2nd start for current trainer Philip Kirby on his 2nd run back after more than a year off the track and I think he could be better than his current mark of 90 based on what he showed in P2Ps. Bobs Ticket showed some very useful form in Point To Points over in Ireland on more than one occasion including a narrow a 3L defeat at the hands of the pretty useful Beneficial Reform and his best effort in defeat came when going down 2L to the very useful hurdler Knock A Hand and finishing 10L clear of the very promising Imperial Vic at Lingstown in March 2011 on his 2nd last start between the flags. His final start in Points saw him an easy winner of a very average Point 2 Point in April 2011 before he joined Lucinda Russell. In June of that year, Bobs Ticket made a highly encouraging debut under rules over 25f at Perth when finishing a very decent 3rd behind the sadly deceased but talented Gordon Elliott trained Brave Beauty and 1L behind the 111 rated hurdler Latin Connection who easily won a Maiden Hurdle for Stuart Crawford on his next start. However, that was as good as it got for Bobs Ticket whose form tailed off horribly in his 4 subsequent outings for Russell (2 over hurdles, 2 over fences) and it looked very much like he needed a change of scenery. After 13 months off the track, Bobs Ticket was pulled up on his debut for Philip Kirby over 2m4f at Wetherby in December but I thought he showed a lot more promise on his latest start at Doncaster this month over 25f as he travelled very well from the front for a long way before today's jockey Adam Nicol was very easy on him once headed approaching 3 out. He's been dropped 5lb from that effort to a mark of 90 and I think he should strip a lot fitter for his first two runs this season. The drop back ot 2m4f looks like it will suit also and Nicol takes off a very valuable 6lb in this very weak looking contest. Judged on the form of his rules debut and runs in P2Ps, I definitely feel that Bobs Ticket has more than enough ability to score off his current mark of 90 and with Philip Kirby in very good form at present then hopefully he can return to his form of old at a nice price.

‎5.25 Wolves

Mubtadi 4/1

If he breaks well and stays the just shy of 10f trip then I think Mubtadi will not be beaten tomorrow. A gelding operation and a switch of tactics has revitalised Ismail Mohammed's 5 year old who has won his last 2 starts and who still looks very well handicapped on old form off a mark of 62. Rated as high as 86, Mubtadi scored off a mark of 57 last month under todays jockey Thomas Brown in an Apprentice Handicap last month by a very comfortable 2.25L from a NTO winner and he followed up that success 8 days later when unpenalised off the same mark when value for oh so much more that the neck winning margin suggests. His young claimer gave Mubtadi an extremely canny ride not once raising his whip as he knew his mount was always holding the opposition and he did a fantastic job in conning the handicapper. Again, the form of that race looks very strong with the 4th and 6th scoring subsequently whilst the 2nd and 3rd have also gone very close to winning and its a race that has worked out very well. Considering he scored twice off a mark of 57, I feel the handicapper has been extremely lenient in raising him just 5lb and this revitalised horse still looks on an extremely workable mark of 62. The step up to just shy of 10f is a bit of an unknown but 4 of his half brothers won over the trip and his full brother was beaten a head at the trip in a Listed contest so breeding suggests that he'll have no problem with the extra distance at all. Young Thomas Brown again takes the ride and a very handy 5lb off and he's built up an excellent partnership with this 5 year old with the pair boasting a perfect 2-2 record when teaming up. With a perfect draw in stall 4, I think Mubtadi is going to be extremely difficult to beat and I firmly believe that if he breaks well he will win this.

longshotvalue

3:40 Carlisle

Had a quick look at this race this morning and Roseneathstood out a mile as an outsider with a bit of a chance here. He was terrible after his season opening win last year of this mark, but his record fresh in the last year or two is 112. I’m sure he should be ready for today with that record and he looks a huge price at 23 on betfair at the moment. Considering how easy he won last year n his first run back it does look value.

1 Point win Betfair 23

UrbanSea

I backed one in your race rossom for small stakes. Fran's Folly ran well off a pound below this mark nearly a year to this day off course and distance, finishing a close third. Was going well next time out when he fell at the last. Ran poorly two runs back but if he returns to form today it's a very weak race. 12/1

UrbanSea

Hadn't heard of the jockey on my horse an eight pound claimer so looked him up. He's had 11 rides and 4 winners, not a bad strike rate

MoscowFlyer

I hate being off work on Monday with a hangover. Recipe for burning money!!

UrbanSea

Ah ****. Broke down, hate to see that even if I hadn't backed it.

ft9

There was a lot of money for him Urban

UrbanSea

Yeah 12s into 5s before the off. C'est la vie

Mocha Joe

Impressive from Mubtabi.

MoscowFlyer

rossom wrote: »

‎5.25 Wolves

Mubtadi 4/1

If he breaks well and stays the just shy of 10f trip then I think Mubtadi will not be beaten tomorrow. A gelding operation and a switch of tactics has revitalised Ismail Mohammed's 5 year old who has won his last 2 starts and who still looks very well handicapped on old form off a mark of 62. Rated as high as 86, Mubtadi scored off a mark of 57 last month under todays jockey Thomas Brown in an Apprentice Handicap last month by a very comfortable 2.25L from a NTO winner and he followed up that success 8 days later when unpenalised off the same mark when value for oh so much more that the neck winning margin suggests. His young claimer gave Mubtadi an extremely canny ride not once raising his whip as he knew his mount was always holding the opposition and he did a fantastic job in conning the handicapper. Again, the form of that race looks very strong with the 4th and 6th scoring subsequently whilst the 2nd and 3rd have also gone very close to winning and its a race that has worked out very well. Considering he scored twice off a mark of 57, I feel the handicapper has been extremely lenient in raising him just 5lb and this revitalised horse still looks on an extremely workable mark of 62. The step up to just shy of 10f is a bit of an unknown but 4 of his half brothers won over the trip and his full brother was beaten a head at the trip in a Listed contest so breeding suggests that he'll have no problem with the extra distance at all. Young Thomas Brown again takes the ride and a very handy 5lb off and he's built up an excellent partnership with this 5 year old with the pair boasting a perfect 2-2 record when teaming up. With a perfect draw in stall 4, I think Mubtadi is going to be extremely difficult to beat and I firmly believe that if he breaks well he will win this.

Bink!

rossom

rossom wrote: »

‎5.25 Wolves

Mubtadi 4/1

If he breaks well and stays the just shy of 10f trip then I think Mubtadi will not be beaten tomorrow. A gelding operation and a switch of tactics has revitalised Ismail Mohammed's 5 year old who has won his last 2 starts and who still looks very well handicapped on old form off a mark of 62. Rated as high as 86, Mubtadi scored off a mark of 57 last month under todays jockey Thomas Brown in an Apprentice Handicap last month by a very comfortable 2.25L from a NTO winner and he followed up that success 8 days later when unpenalised off the same mark when value for oh so much more that the neck winning margin suggests. His young claimer gave Mubtadi an extremely canny ride not once raising his whip as he knew his mount was always holding the opposition and he did a fantastic job in conning the handicapper. Again, the form of that race looks very strong with the 4th and 6th scoring subsequently whilst the 2nd and 3rd have also gone very close to winning and its a race that has worked out very well. Considering he scored twice off a mark of 57, I feel the handicapper has been extremely lenient in raising him just 5lb and this revitalised horse still looks on an extremely workable mark of 62. The step up to just shy of 10f is a bit of an unknown but 4 of his half brothers won over the trip and his full brother was beaten a head at the trip in a Listed contest so breeding suggests that he'll have no problem with the extra distance at all. Young Thomas Brown again takes the ride and a very handy 5lb off and he's built up an excellent partnership with this 5 year old with the pair boasting a perfect 2-2 record when teaming up. With a perfect draw in stall 4, I think Mubtadi is going to be extremely difficult to beat and I firmly believe that if he breaks well he will win this.

Lovely stuff. I had a really good go at that and never in doubt! Hopefully a few got on as I was very confident with that one.

Bob's Ticket was narrowly deprived a place in 4th and will be one I back NTO

Pinesky

Mocha Joe wrote: »

Impressive from Mubtabi.

Nice one and thanks Rossom got 11/2 with PP.
Very competent ride from Thomas Brown.

fergal23

Nice picking Rossom

rossom

Pinesky wrote: »

Nice one and thanks Rossom got 11/2 with PP.
Very competent ride from Thomas Brown.

He's a jockey well worth following. Thats 3 in a row for him on Mubtadi and he's 4-4 for Ismail Mohammed who will be giving him a load more chances which is great for him. Rides one called Light Burst for him tomorrow at Southwell who I'll probably be backing.

Pinesky

rossom wrote: »

He's a jockey well worth following. Thats 3 in a row for him on Mubtadi and he's 4-4 for Ismail Mohammed who will be giving him a load more chances which is great for him. Rides one called Light Burst for him tomorrow at Southwell who I'll probably be backing.

Thanks will have a formscan on light burst tonight

rossom

Just watched it back and once again Thomas Brown never once raised the whip on him. Still well ahead of the handicapper and another great ride.

Ray Mond

rossom wrote: »

Just watched it back and once again Thomas Brown never once raised the whip on him. Still well ahead of the handicapper and another great ride.

Great pick Rossom lovely stuff needed that:)