Kerry football in "serious decline": true or false?

Rebelheart

Elsewhere on this forum people are claiming that Kerry football is in "serious decline" (here and here, for instance).

Do you agree with these claims? If so, why? If not, why? And if Kerry people are not playing football, what are they doing? Has there been an upsurge in computer game usage? Has there been some mass exodus to internet discussion fora? to Playstation? to soccer? to rugby?

Or does "serious decline" for the average cocky 'An dara Ríocht' Ciarraíoch happen if they don't win the All-Ireland every year?

Fr Tod Umptious

Yes IP, it is on serious decline and will be for another 4 or 5 years perhaps.

Its not that guys are not playing football its because Kerry have not followed other counties it developing strength and conditioning programmes from a young age.

The above coupled with the fact that they have had a very strong core that has been hard to displace means that the guys coming through are not up to scratch

padd b1975

No, it's doing well, has the same huge popular support and is organisationally solid

What we have here is 1987 to 1997 lite.

Obviously back then the slump seemed more dramatic because after losing a Munster Final, that was it for the year, making it more difficult to give a whole new generation of players big match experience.


Back to the present, yes Kerry are currently in decline but up to a point.

The short comings of numerous underage teams were clearly going to come home to roost eventually.

Kerry will still be there or there abouts in the medium term. ie. regular quarter finalists, semi finalists and the odd final. A situation most counties can only dream of.

Juniorhurler

The mods over there have given you a spanking already.

Fr Tod Umptious

padd b1975 wrote: »

What we have here is 1987 to 1997 lite.

Obviously back then the slump seemed more dramatic because after losing a Munster Final, that was it for the year, making it more difficult to give a whole new generation of players big match experience.


Back to the present, yes Kerry are currently in decline but up to a point.

The short comings of numerous underage teams were clearly going to come home to roost eventually.

Kerry will still be there or there abouts in the medium term. ie. regular quarter finalists, semi finalists and the odd final. A situation most counties can only dream of.

Yes the back door will mean that any drought will be relatively short
When they do get to Croke Park however they will not be as dominant as they were there in the 00s

themandan6611

well, they ain't on the rise are they

Treble20

Kerry are not going well but neither are Cork and based on that fact I still reckon there's a Munster in Kerry but it could take a few years to get Sam back to the County. Fitzmaurice has a difficult job ahead of him but I still reckon he's the right man to lead them in the right track if he's given the time.

padd b1975

No, it's doing well, has the same huge popular support and is organisationally solid

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

Yes the back door will mean that any drought will be relatively short
When they do get to Croke Park however they will not be as dominant as they were there in the 00s

You don't need to single out the 00s as a period of dominance.

Kerry have contested 56 AI senior finals (just shy of 1 in 2) winning 36 (close to 1 in 3)

Its a staggering record, but I feel they are now at a major crossroads.

lanarty94

No, it's grand. Improvements needed, but nothing to worry about.

Kerry are a great team and will always be up there with the best of them

WumBuster

I dont live in kerry so Im not really qualified to answer that question. But on the back of two poor league defeats and a tame exit from the championship last year it sounds like they are in transition at the moment, and in fairness all counties go through that now and again, even in kerry. They had a fantastic team in the late 90's through the 00's and most of those guys have moved on now so if there is enough young talent coming through to challenge for sam again in the next few years remains to be seen, if there isnt that talent coming through like before well then, there could be a decline, but i'd doubt it very much tbh.

Mr. Incognito

Yes, it's in "decline"

Kerry had a fabulous team from 2000-09

Teams go through transitions,

They'll reinvent themselves with new players, as they always do. The current crop look poor compared to the second most successful period in Kerry GAA History.

We'll be fine. Kerry's declined team is still a lot better than what 90% of the country can field come championship time

Trigger13222

WumBuster wrote: »

I dont live in kerry so Im not really qualified to answer that question. But on the back of two poor league defeats and a tame exit from the championship last year it sounds like they are in transition at the moment, and in fairness all counties go through that now and again, even in kerry. They had a fantastic team in the late 90's through the 00's and most of those guys have moved on now so if there is enough young talent coming through to challenge for sam again in the next few years remains to be seen, if there isnt that talent coming through like before well then, there could be a decline, but i'd doubt it very much tbh.

Losing to the All Ireland champions by two points was a bad result but calling it a tame exit is harsh.

Trigger13222

lanarty94 wrote: »

Kerry were never that good all they beat were mayo they were never tough enough for northern teams

Go some where else to troll.

zetecescort

Like the Cork hurlers, a recent lack of underage success is now leading to a period where young lads are being asked to play senior with little or no big game experience underage. Kerry are clearly in a lull but the back door and the lack of competition in Munster football will mean they will get to Croke Park every year and won't be long learning what is required to win.

Competition in Munster hurling will mean it will take Cork a bit longer to become challengers again

davegrohl48

I think they will still be competitive later in the year. But I think 2014 could be a turning point. They are starting to look thin in defence as regards established players.
MOS/TOS, Brosnan, that's three players with a lot of mileage.
Upfront is still topclass and not that old:
10 Galvin 11 Dec OSullivan 12 Bryan Sheehan?
13 Cooper 14 Donaghy 15 Darren OSullivan
I think they should keep Darren OSullivan closer to goal. He has less effective games out around the middle.
To beat blanket type defences Kerry have the three main ingredients:
- Target man at 14 (not going as well recently)
- Pace (3 of their forwards 11/13/15)
- Excellent freetaking

aidan24326

Yes, it's in "decline"

Anyone predicting Kerry's demise would seriously want to cop themselves on. Kerry are entering a period of transition that's inevitable when you've had a decade of contesting so many All-Ireland finals (was it 7 in 9 years or something like that?)

But they never go away for too long. Their poor run of form at underage level would be a concern alright if you're a Kerry supporter, the production line doesn't seem to be churning out young talent at the usual rate but at the end of the day any 15 lads that get to wear a Kerry jersey come championship time are not going to be easily beaten. I would disregard their league form as being a combination of them missing some important players and being a team that's clearly nowhere near to being fully wound up yet. They have some work to do for sure but anyone who thinks they're in serious decline needs a GAA history lesson.

Tombo2001

I did a bit of back of the envelope work as to what are the biggest drivers of success in Gaelic Football.

Realistically, the main one is population.

Apart from Kerry, the only counties that have won all irelands with any degree of regularity since the instigation of the competition, through the decades, are Dublin, Cork and Galway......all relatively large populations.

More interesting then are counties who have a protracted period of success....for example
- Cavan won 5 all Irelands between 1935 and 1955.
- Meath won 5 all Irelands between 1967 and 1999.
The reason I find these interesting is population shift.......Cavans population was far larger than Meaths in the 1930s.......Meaths population had become far larger than Cavans by the 1970s and 1980s (sattellite towns). I would say a relatively large population contributed to success in both cases.

In short, I think county population has played a huge role in deciding who wins an all Ireland.

The anomaly to this is Kerry.

There is nothing in its relative population size that suggests it should be winning so much.

That suggests there is something else in that county that is inherently not in other counties, and I doubt this will disappear overnight.

Tom Joad

Yes, it's in "decline"

Tombo2001 wrote: »

More interesting then are counties who have a protracted period of success....for example
- Cavan won 5 all Irelands between 1935 and 1955.
- Meath won 5 all Irelands between 1967 and 1999.
The reason I find these interesting is population shift.......Cavans population was far larger than Meaths in the 1930s.......Meaths population had become far larger than Cavans by the 1970s and 1980s (sattellite towns). I would say a relatively large population contributed to success in both cases.

Interesting theory but you've forgotten a key factor in this and you'll just have to take my word for this as I've no actual proof.

The Meath County Board developed a strategy, born out of pure jealousy no less, of sending their young men folk over the county boundary in the late 50s and early 60s to steal our wimmins to produce their own elite race of gaelic footballers. So by rights them 5 all-irelands they won are ours and Cavan has ten all irelands and Meath have none.

Sorry if I ruined your theory:)

aidan24326

Yes, it's in "decline"

According to Wikipedia, the population of Kerry is 145,000. Not that small, and certainly bigger than a lot of counties so I don't think you can say their success is an anomaly in terms of population. What is hard to explain is why they've consistently produced so many good footballers in pretty much every decade over the last hundred years.

Other counties come and go, Galway might have a few good years, then Dublin come along, then it might be Cork or Meath. But always in a transient sort of way. A few good years followed by a lull. Whereas Kerry are almost always there or thereabouts.

1986-1997 was the only barren period they've ever really had, and that came after a period of unparallelled dominance where they were having to try and replace some of the best footballers that have ever played the game.

bruschi

No, it's doing well, has the same huge popular support and is organisationally solid

aidan24326 wrote: »

According to Wikipedia, the population of Kerry is 145,000. Not that small, and certainly bigger than a lot of counties so I don't think you can say their success is an anomaly in terms of population. What is hard to explain is why they've consistently produced so many good footballers in pretty much every decade over the last hundred years.

Other counties come and go, Galway might have a few good years, then Dublin come along, then it might be Cork or Meath. But always in a transient sort of way. A few good years followed by a lull. Whereas Kerry are almost always there or thereabouts.

1986-1997 was the only barren period they've ever really had, and that came after a period of unparallelled dominance where they were having to try and replace some of the best footballers that have ever played the game.

that right there. Kerry hit the very very top of the game, so there is only one place for them to go form there, and that is down. Its inevitable. Much like Kilkenny will have to sometime decline too (well I hope they do anyway!) it is one of those things.

I personally think they are in decline, but that is from a position of absolute tops. They are in decline for Kerrys standards (particularily over the last decade), but I would still love to be in their position.

Tom Joad

Yes, it's in "decline"

It's phenomenal the amount of seriously good footballers that Kerry have produced over the years in every era really and they are an anomaly in that way.

But, and in saying this I mean no direspect to Kerry, they have one major advantage over other counties in that for a long period they more or less had a bye into the All-ireland semi finals. You mentioned Cavan in a previous post and one of the reasons they have five all-irelands is that for the most of that period from the 1930s until that great Down team came along in the 60s Cavan were winning Ulsters virtually uncontested.

For both counties this was a huge advantage as you essentially only had to win two games to win the All-Ireland.

passatman86

No, it's doing well, has the same huge popular support and is organisationally solid

i happened to see them training the other week and they looked bored lol

Lelantos

Yes, it's in "decline"

aidan24326 wrote: »

Anyone predicting Kerry's demise would seriously want to cop themselves on. Kerry are entering a period of transition that's inevitable when you've had a decade of contesting so many All-Ireland finals (was it 7 in 9 years or something like that?)

But they never go away for too long. Their poor run of form at underage level would be a concern alright if you're a Kerry supporter, the production line doesn't seem to be churning out young talent at the usual rate but at the end of the day any 15 lads that get to wear a Kerry jersey come championship time are not going to be easily beaten. I would disregard their league form as being a combination of them missing some important players and being a team that's clearly nowhere near to being fully wound up yet. They have some work to do for sure but anyone who thinks they're in serious decline needs a GAA history lesson.

The Kerry minor team has won 5 championships in 50 years. It doesn't factor into the senior squad, players develop differently & some just don't seem to make the leap from a 17yo talent to a player capable of winning a senior all Ireland

Lelantos

Yes, it's in "decline"

Tom Joad wrote: »

It's phenomenal the amount of seriously good footballers that Kerry have produced over the years in every era really and they are an anomaly in that way.

But, and in saying this I mean no direspect to Kerry, they have one major advantage over other counties in that for a long period they more or less had a bye into the All-ireland semi finals. You mentioned Cavan in a previous post and one of the reasons they have five all-irelands is that for the most of that period from the 1930s until that great Down team came along in the 60s Cavan were winning Ulsters virtually uncontested.

For both counties this was a huge advantage as you essentially only had to win two games to win the All-Ireland.

When you said a bye into the semis, did you forget about Cork? They've contested more finals than anyone bar Kerry & Dublin. Not exactly plain sailing for Kerry was it.

Tom Joad

Yes, it's in "decline"

Lelantos wrote: »

When you said a bye into the semis, did you forget about Cork? They've contested more finals than anyone bar Kerry & Dublin. Not exactly plain sailing for Kerry was it.

Ok may have been a bit over the top re a bye into the semis But if you are trying to explain the success of Kerry, the fact that for a long time they were guaranteed a munster final spot (of which they won 70 odd?) has to be a factor and for some periods Cork were not at the races (the fact that they only won 7 All-irelands despite having contested so many may back this up).

That's not meant as any disrespect to Kerry or to denegrate what they have achieved - its an attempt to explain one factor in how they have been some dominant for so long.

I have huge admiration for what Kerry achieved but like the example given about Cavan - having a straightforward enough passage at times through their province certainly helped.

Tombo2001

aidan24326 wrote: »

According to Wikipedia, the population of Kerry is 145,000. Not that small, and certainly bigger than a lot of counties so I don't think you can say their success is an anomaly in terms of population. What is hard to explain is why they've consistently produced so many good footballers in pretty much every decade over the last hundred years.

You are right it is not small, but I just dont think they could do what they do if they had the population say of Laois.

On the other hand, it is not in the top ten counties by population, and every other county that has had a protracted period of success (decades rather than years of success) is in the top ten.......Cork, Dublin, Galway, Down, Meath......and at the time when it was winning, Cavan.

Fr Tod Umptious

The decline in Kerry is of course all relative, and people should really view it in that way.

To Kerry 10 years without an All Ireland is a famine.

So with that in mind they could be on their way to another 10+ years without an All ireland

They are alraedy 3 yaers gone and I personally cannot see them being a factor in 2013 so that is 4 yaers.
The feeling in Kerry is that the quality of what is coming through to replace the old guard is very poor and not on a par with what is coming through in other counties (Dublin being the example used a lot), therefore it could be 5 or 6 years before they can really cahllenge again, and there is your 10 yaers without a title.

WesternZulu

If they get to experience anything like a 62 year drought like Mayo then I would be inclined to say that they are in decline :pac:

This thread is hyperbole at it's finest!

12gauge dave

Yes, it's in "decline"

They nearly bet donegal last year in the championship and only played well for the last 20mins?
In the league this year so far they have been very poor but i think we should wait untill the championship starts before we judge.
Either way what they have achieved is mind boggling for a rural county without a huge population and dont be suprised if you see them up in croke park come semi final time this year, you can never write them off.

Lelantos

Yes, it's in "decline"

Tom Joad wrote: »

Ok may have been a bit over the top re a bye into the semis But if you are trying to explain the success of Kerry, the fact that for a long time they were guaranteed a munster final spot (of which they won 70 odd?) has to be a factor and for some periods Cork were not at the races (the fact that they only won 7 All-irelands despite having contested so many may back this up).

That's not meant as any disrespect to Kerry or to denegrate what they have achieved - its an attempt to explain one factor in how they have been some dominant for so long.

I have huge admiration for what Kerry achieved but like the example given about Cavan - having a straightforward enough passage at times through their province certainly helped.

But you could turn that argument around for, say, Dublin. The whole of Leinster, bar Dublin, has only contested marginally more finals than Cork. Dublin have had easy passages, why have they not won more than Kerry.
Your suggestion may be a factor, but its going to be a very small one. Other influences far outweigh it imo

Fr Tod Umptious

12gauge dave wrote: »

They nearly bet donegal last year in the championship and only played well for the last 20mins?
In the league this year so far they have been very poor but i think we should wait untill the championship starts before we judge.
Either way what they have achieved is mind boggling for a rural county without a huge population and dont be suprised if you see them up in croke park come semi final time this year, you can never write them off.

But Kerry in 2012 were poor overall

They were sluggish v Tipp
They were well beaten by Cork
They got a huge fright v Westmeath
They did well again a rebuilding Tyrone team in a game they were really up for
They hammered a poor Clare team
And for the most part they looked 2nd best v Donegal, the late goal the only gloss on the display

I cannot seeing them doing anything in 2013 that would point to an improvement

Tom Joad

Yes, it's in "decline"

Lelantos wrote: »

But you could turn that argument around for, say, Dublin. The whole of Leinster, bar Dublin, has only contested marginally more finals than Cork. Dublin have had easy passages, why have they not won more than Kerry.
Your suggestion may be a factor, but its going to be a very small one. Other i
influences far outweigh it imo

I would strongly disagree in that Leinster has always been more competitive than Munster and more teams were capable of winning it - I don't think Dublin have ever had easy passages - Louth, Meath, Offaly, Kildare, Laois in particular over the years produced all-ireland winning teams from Leinster and after tough campaigns. If for instance Dublin won the all-ireland 30-40 years ago, to retain it they could have to beat seriously competitive leinster teams to make a semi-final but Kerry were guaranteed a Munster final appearance so less chance to be caught.

Its a factor that's all I'm saying - I'm not going to overplay it or suggest Kerry got easy All-Irelands or anything of that sort. There is nothing to take away from the fact that they have consistently produced some of the greatest footballers ever to play GAA over the years.

Murphj7

Tom Joad wrote: »

I would strongly disagree in that Leinster has always been more competitive than Munster and more teams were capable of winning it - I don't think Dublin have ever had easy passages - Louth, Meath, Offaly, Kildare, Laois in particular over the years produced all-ireland winning teams from Leinster and after tough campaigns. If for instance Dublin won the all-ireland 30-40 years ago, to retain it they could have to beat seriously competitive leinster teams to make a semi-final but Kerry were guaranteed a Munster final appearance so less chance to be caught.

Its a factor that's all I'm saying - I'm not going to overplay it or suggest Kerry got easy All-Irelands or anything of that sort. There is nothing to take away from the fact that they have consistently produced some of the greatest footballers ever to play GAA over the years.

Dublin are the only side in Leinster win an All Ireland these days. Cork and Kerry in Munster

Tom Joad

Yes, it's in "decline"

^^^^^^^

These days arguably (I can't offend every county in the one day ) but I'm talking about over the past 75 years or so when Leinster has produced a lot of All-Ireland winners compared to Munster..

Murphj7

Offaly for a period, Meath and Dublin. In 50 years. Leinster is competitive at the lower end.

davegrohl48

Tombo2001 wrote: »

In short, I think county population has played a huge role in deciding who wins an all Ireland.
The anomaly to this is Kerry.
There is nothing in its relative population size that suggests it should be winning so much.
That suggests there is something else in that county that is inherently not in other counties, and I doubt this will disappear overnight.

It is an interesting one when you look at the sheer number of titles compared to a county like Mayo which has a similar population and close to an equal obsession with Gaelic football.

mickmackey1

davegrohl48 wrote: »

It is an interesting one when you look at the sheer number of titles compared to a county like Mayo which has a similar population and close to an equal obsession with Gaelic football.

That's because the Kerry lads always showed respect at funerals:pac:

Fr Tod Umptious

davegrohl48 wrote: »

It is an interesting one when you look at the sheer number of titles compared to a county like Mayo which has a similar population and close to an equal obsession with Gaelic football.

The obsession with Gaelic football is not equal in Kerry and Mayo, and that's coming from a Mayo man living in Kerry

From my house in a mid Kerry village I can count approx 8 football clubs in a 10 mile radius

From my home in mid Mayo I would be lucky to count two

LostBoy101

Yes, it's in "decline"

I would not write off Kerry for another All-Ireland in the coming years but this day it shows they need to invest in a new youth team as the crop of players at the moment won't do it this year.

Clareman

Thread cleaned up, folks reminder DO NOT FEED THE TROLLS.

Mal-Adjusted

It's only natural for teams to go up and down in quality over the years. nobody can stay at the top forever. these things come in cycles.

MaroonAndGreen

Kerry are going to be serious contenders again this year.

But I would put them behind Donegal, Mayo, Cork and Dublin.

Antho1966

dont write kerry off lads.

these guys bite like a shark when there down

btw where do i put up a good kerry man joke i heard today

Lelantos

Yes, it's in "decline"

Antho1966 wrote: »

dont write kerry off lads.

these guys bite like a shark when there down

btw where do i put up a good kerry man joke i heard today

Your ar*e

Antho1966

im saying dont write kerry off.

they have lots of players back by next league game.

new and old may mix much like our debutants in rugby tomorrow.

btw where do i put joke up??

StephenHendry

they are more in transition than decline, it will be a few years before they are in real contention for AI, again i would say this year and next , they will probably get a qf place. they have been unbelievably consistent since ending their drought in 97 to 09 , they're too good to be down for too long