Thursday 14th February

UrbanSea

Have been following Jolily for a while and can see him running a big race back at this favourite track Thurles tomorrow in the 3.50. This is what I had to say before his last run at Leopardstown over Christmas

This is a horse I've been following for a while now and think he has a handicap chase win in him soon, the one worry for tomorrow is that it's over an extended 2 and a half miles and he may be slightly better over an extra furlong or three. Nevertheless, with the ground getting steadily softer I'll take a chance. A winning pointer who unsurprisingly didn't show a whole lot in three novice chases toward the end of 2010 and the beginning of 2011, he revealed himself to be a new proposition switched to handicaps. His first run in a handicap came in this very race last year off a mark of 97 on similarly testing going.

He improved on all known form that day to finish second to the in form Miss Pepperpot, beaten two lengths. She has since proved herself to be a decent mare, winning that race off a mark of 103, before being second off 108 and last time out was placed off a mark of 116. Third horse that day who finished three lengths behind Jolily did seem to go a little backward but did win a handicap chase at Navan in March off the same mark. Looking a little further back, the form of the race looks fairly solid, given The Book Thief has since been placed and was beaten only eight lengths by Raz De Maree in a novice.

Jolily ran a brilliant race next time out again at Thurles on heavy going over three miles. Racing off the same mark ( it was only a week later) he was held up and made rapid headway to just go down to Supreme Builder by a half a length, finishing nearly 40 lengths clear of the third horse Cochise. He looked like he was sure to be the winner that day having touch 1.26 in running, but he lost nothing in defeat, and two hard races in a week on that going is enough for any horse.

The form of that race is pretty weak, however. He did win next time out, again at Thurles over 3 miles on very testing going,off a mark of 107, confirming superiority over Cochise, beating him only two lengths this time, but the pair were a dozen lengths clear of the remainder. After his Thurles win his form figures of 9PU5 don't look too promising, but next time out at Limerick as the 9/2 fav he was found to be ''clincally abnormal post race'' and returned over a month later at Navan, but disappointed and was pulled up. I'm not quite sure what to make of that run but it wouldn't be out of the realms of possiblity that he still hadn't recovered from his Limerick excursions but that's mere speculation.

Made an uncharacteristic mistake on his seasonal return again at Thurles at the end of October, only making it as far as the second fence before unseating Martin Burke. However, his run last time out here left me with the utmost in confidence that he retains his ability. Running off a mark of 107, he finished 5th of 13 runners(beaten only around seven lengths) over what seems too short a trip of 2 and a quarter miles on what was only yielding to soft ground and was also hampered three out that day.

Was making good headway two runs back at Thurles behind Saoirse Dun and looked to be at least going to place before he was brought down. Saoirse Dun proved to be well ahead of the handicapper, very easily landing a handicap next time out under a double penalty and will probably go up to a rating of about 300 next time out. Jolily had one run since, again off a mark of 107 and ran better than the result suggests last time out at Navan. Was dropped 2 pounds for that race which was generous enough and can see him being competitive here tomorrow in what isn't the strongest of races in depth. I would be quite worried about Tarquinius, however, and will advise an each way bet on him aswell at 13/2, though I don't usually backing two horses in the same race.


He went on to run a good second that day, predictably looking like further would suit him when beaten ten lengths by Tarquinius, but the form of that run is very good, Tarquinius went on to be beaten a short head off a stone higher in the Theystes. Love this track and the step back up in trip is going to suit, is a big each way price at 12/1. Wise Oscar looks to have a tonne in hand but wouldn't be the first horse to fail to take advantage of a lower chase mark if he didn't win.


One other at Thurles tomorrow is Shannon Spirit in his first start in handicap chases in the 2.50. About a stone lower than over hurdles and suspicions are he is better than he's shown. 12/1 as well

Slattsy

Happy Valentines Day xxx xxx xxx swit swoooo

SRFC

Daddy long legs would have a chance in meydan if pace making for o brien hasnt soured him.

rossom

2.10 Kelso

Forzy Origny 25/1

There are definitely quite a few risks attached to Martin Todhunter's 11 year old but if bouncing back the form he showed for Alan King a few years ago he must have a superb chance off an effective mark of 121 when taking talented claimer Ryan Hatch's 7lb claim into account. A hurdle/chase winner in France back in 2005/06, Forzy Origny joined Alan King's stable back in late 2009 when absent from the track for over 3 years and after 4 runs in handicaps over hurdles for the King yard he made an absolute mockery of his handicap chase mark of 122 on his British debut over fences when annihilating a field of 9 runners at Huntingdon in a Class 3 Handicap back in April 2010 in facile fashion by 17L. Given that authoritative performance, the handicapper unsurprisingly raised him 17lb to a mark of 139 after that success and he ran another excellent race off his revised mark a month later when finishing 2nd in a Listed Handicap at Uttoxeter. For one reason or another, his then owner Robert Ogden decided to move him to Nicky Henderson and it proved a disastrous decision as he really floundered at Seven Barrows. On the back of an 11 month absence, he made his stable debut for Henderson in the Topham Chase at Aintree where he finished a comprehensively beaten 53L beaten 11th of 30 in April 2011 but I think its probably worth noting that Henderson must have thought a bit about him to run him in such a competitive race after such a long absence. His 3rd last outing came on the back of a 7 month absence in November 2011 when pulled up at Newbury off the same mark of 140 and his final start for Henderson came on the back of a 3 month absence when the same fate befell him when pulled up at Doncaster off 139 in February last year.

Martin Todhunter picked him up after that and he made his stable debut in October last year in a very competitive 25f Veteran's Handicap Chase at Aintree on the back of an 8 month absence and although ultimately outclassed I thought he showed enough to think he's still capable of winning races. Off a mark of 132 on good ground, Forzy Origny settled in behind a strong pace and for quite a long way he seemed to be travelling fine under James Reveley. However, the pace increased again and he perhaps seemed a small bit lazy (I think he found things happening a little too quick for him) and when beaten Reveley allowed his 11 year old partner to come home in his own time. That race looks a strong affair with the 3rd winning twice subsequently and that very competitive Class 2 handicap is a much better race that he will encounter today. Forzy Origny must be a pretty hard horse to train given his sporadic racecourse appearances over the past few years and he comes here on the back of a 110 day absence which is a slight concern. The handicapper has relented again for his most recent effort by dropping him to a mark of 128 and he faces by far his easiest assignment for quite a few years. Since his emphatic success on his British debut over fences, Forzy Origny has been confined to racing in very competitive Listed and Class 2 Handicaps and he now drops back into the same grade of Class 3 Handicap for the first time since that facile victory.

Although he's a lot of form on better ground, I actually feel that a return to a soft surface (acts on it fine) will also help him a lot given that he won't get caught out for pace which is understandable at his veteran age. In this Amateur Handicap, I'm definitely buoyed by the booking of 7lb claimer Ryan Hatch as he is a jockey who I think is well worth his claim, especially against fellow Apprentices. This represents Hatch's only ride of the day and first start for the yard and, given that he is based with Nigel Twiston-Davies, I can only assume that he's making an awfully long trip between his Naunton and Kelso which I make a greater than 10 hour round journey for this solitary ride. When taking into account his young jockey's claim, I definitely feel Forzy Origny is potentially on a very good mark of effectively 121 and he'll have a lovely racing weight of 10-12. Although there seems to be a few horses that like to be prominent, I would love if Forzy Origny was given the instruction to go from the front if viable as I think it could see him return to his best form. This represents Martin Todhunter's only runner of the day and although he is winnerless since October, he's not a prolific winner under rules so it shouldn't be viewed as a tremendous negative. Off his lowest mark and in his lowest grade since his last win (albeit nearly 3 years ago), if Todhunter has revitalised this 11 year old grey then I feel he's definitely on a very winnable mark and if all goes to plan then hopefully he can deservedly resume winning ways at a very nice price.

BlueBaron

One that really catches my eye is Phoneix Flight in the 7.30 kempton, currently 9/1 think he could go very well and will be dissapointed if hes not there at the finish

UrbanSea

Slattsy wrote: »

Happy Valentines Day xxx xxx xxx swit swoooo

You too Slattsy lol xxxxxx

Slattsy

RichieLawlessness wrote: »

You too Slattsy lol xxxxxx

Hubba hubba

Ray Mond

I'm trying to think of reasons not to lump on wise Oscar?

UrbanSea

Ray Mond wrote: »

I'm trying to think of reasons not to lump on wise Oscar?

Lumping on shorties in handicaps isn't my kind of bet anymore. May have a tonne in hand but there have been loads of horses in Ireland last few weeks not able to take advantage of a far lower hurdles rating-Romanesco is one I can't remember others' names, but he should win.

BlueBaron

rossom wrote: »

2.10 Kelso

Forzy Origny 25/1

There are definitely quite a few risks attached to Martin Todhunter's 11 year old but if bouncing back the form he showed for Alan King a few years ago he must have a superb chance off an effective mark of 121 when taking talented claimer Ryan Hatch's 7lb claim into account. A hurdle/chase winner in France back in 2005/06, Forzy Origny joined Alan King's stable back in late 2009 when absent from the track for over 3 years and after 4 runs in handicaps over hurdles for the King yard he made an absolute mockery of his handicap chase mark of 122 on his British debut over fences when annihilating a field of 9 runners at Huntingdon in a Class 3 Handicap back in April 2010 in facile fashion by 17L. Given that authoritative performance, the handicapper unsurprisingly raised him 17lb to a mark of 139 after that success and he ran another excellent race off his revised mark a month later when finishing 2nd in a Listed Handicap at Uttoxeter. For one reason or another, his then owner Robert Ogden decided to move him to Nicky Henderson and it proved a disastrous decision as he really floundered at Seven Barrows. On the back of an 11 month absence, he made his stable debut for Henderson in the Topham Chase at Aintree where he finished a comprehensively beaten 53L beaten 11th of 30 in April 2011 but I think its probably worth noting that Henderson must have thought a bit about him to run him in such a competitive race after such a long absence. His 3rd last outing came on the back of a 7 month absence in November 2011 when pulled up at Newbury off the same mark of 140 and his final start for Henderson came on the back of a 3 month absence when the same fate befell him when pulled up at Doncaster off 139 in February last year.

Martin Todhunter picked him up after that and he made his stable debut in October last year in a very competitive 25f Veteran's Handicap Chase at Aintree on the back of an 8 month absence and although ultimately outclassed I thought he showed enough to think he's still capable of winning races. Off a mark of 132 on good ground, Forzy Origny settled in behind a strong pace and for quite a long way he seemed to be travelling fine under James Reveley. However, the pace increased again and he perhaps seemed a small bit lazy (I think he found things happening a little too quick for him) and when beaten Reveley allowed his 11 year old partner to come home in his own time. That race looks a strong affair with the 3rd winning twice subsequently and that very competitive Class 2 handicap is a much better race that he will encounter today. Forzy Origny must be a pretty hard horse to train given his sporadic racecourse appearances over the past few years and he comes here on the back of a 110 day absence which is a slight concern. The handicapper has relented again for his most recent effort by dropping him to a mark of 128 and he faces by far his easiest assignment for quite a few years. Since his emphatic success on his British debut over fences, Forzy Origny has been confined to racing in very competitive Listed and Class 2 Handicaps and he now drops back into the same grade of Class 3 Handicap for the first time since that facile victory.

Although he's a lot of form on better ground, I actually feel that a return to a soft surface (acts on it fine) will also help him a lot given that he won't get caught out for pace which is understandable at his veteran age. In this Amateur Handicap, I'm definitely buoyed by the booking of 7lb claimer Ryan Hatch as he is a jockey who I think is well worth his claim, especially against fellow Apprentices. This represents Hatch's only ride of the day and first start for the yard and, given that he is based with Nigel Twiston-Davies, I can only assume that he's making an awfully long trip between his Naunton and Kelso which I make a greater than 10 hour round journey for this solitary ride. When taking into account his young jockey's claim, I definitely feel Forzy Origny is potentially on a very good mark of effectively 121 and he'll have a lovely racing weight of 10-12. Although there seems to be a few horses that like to be prominent, I would love if Forzy Origny was given the instruction to go from the front if viable as I think it could see him return to his best form. This represents Martin Todhunter's only runner of the day and although he is winnerless since October, he's not a prolific winner under rules so it shouldn't be viewed as a tremendous negative. Off his lowest mark and in his lowest grade since his last win (albeit nearly 3 years ago), if Todhunter has revitalised this 11 year old grey then I feel he's definitely on a very winnable mark and if all goes to plan then hopefully he can deservedly resume winning ways at a very nice price.

a trip to tesco for him i thnk roossom

rossom

BlueBaron wrote: »

a trip to tesco for him i thnk roossom

Never travelled from the word go but I wouldn't give up on him just yet. Seemed to sulk at being behind and if I knew they were the tactics I wouldn't have gone near him. He'll fall another chunk in the weights for that and if I ever see headgear applied on him for the first time I'll be very keen. Watching brief for a while now though.

Mocha Joe

Very good stuff from Jolily.

Ray Mond

Great pick Richie hope ye had a few quid on at big price good stuff

Johner

Well done on Jolily Urban! Good picking.

Johner

What a brilliant ride that was by Davy Russell, was a mile back and got hampered and nearly stopped to a walk. Unreal stuff to win that.

scon86

How much was the rule 4 in the 3:50

rossom

Great shout Urban. Nothing better when you don't give up on a horse that you know that its more than capable of winning off its mark and it comes good!

UrbanSea

scon86 wrote: »

How much was the rule 4 in the 3:50

50 cent, annoying but better than a kick in the face.


Cheers lads, think he could have a big handicap in him yet too rossom

SudoSan

RichieLawlessness wrote: »

50 cent, annoying but better than a kick in the face.


Cheers lads, think he could have a big handicap in him yet too rossom

Manged to get my arse in gear and sign up for an account. Long time lurker, first time poster. Managed to get on this yesterday early enough...so much obliged Urban Sea.

And indeed shout out out to Rossom and the other lads who stick their necks on the line week in week out and whose selections I follow with great interest.