Trying to build an accum as I go.

Kankan14

Hello.
My idea is pretty simple. Starting bank of €10 backing sub 1.5 shots. Til I reach 400. Max price will be 1.5 Min will be 1.2.
By my reckoning 20 by 1.2 shots starting with €10 increasing with all winnings going on each time is a little over 400 after commission.

All prices will be from betfair. All bets will be struck there too, if prices are slightly better elsewhere I'll just have to grin and bear it. It'd be too hard to withdraw and deposit to diff accounts 20+ times trying to find the best price.

There may be big gaps between bets as I won't post it unless I fancy it. In saying that I could be done by Saturday if I fancy enough things. Doubtful though as I want to take this pretty serious.

Essentially this bet is just a massive accumalator but with the picks I bit more selective and drawn out compared to just ticking off odds on teams on a Saturday football coupon.

Bets will be on a range of sports. There will be no novelty bets included i.e the colour of hat the queen will wear at ascot etc.

I'm going to make 5 attempts at this, starting with 10 each time. So max outlay is 50. Hopefully the first tenner works though :-) Some of the later bets may not be for full bank if I can reach 400 on say bet 19 and I only need to invest so much of the running balance then that's all I will bet. Once I get to 400 I plan to stop/find some other crazy scheme

Ok will post first selection as soon as I see it.
Good luck me!

Kankan14

So here goes attempt number 1!


Bet no.1: Metz win @1.23

Metz at home to Quevilly. In French Third Division. Metz haven't been in terrific form recently drawing their last two but against half decent sides. Quevilly are winless in their last 8 and rock bottom of the league.
Metz are in second place and with a
game more played than the league leaders will be all out for a win to apply some pressure. All in all a little under 1/4(1.23) looks a very backable price to start my experiment. Games kicks off 7.45GMT tonight Friday.

EDIT: backed after a drift to 1.34

Bohemian_Soul

Best of luck KanKan, that is sound logic to start off with.....

Kankan14

Metz won 2-0.
Balance of 13.31 on France v Wales @1.31 in 6 Nations.

Wales losing Warburton is massive considering their poor form and injuries, even with Tipuric in at 7 and Jones the new skipper at 6 they'll miss Warburton ground work on a wide open pitch. France also will be keen to put the Italian result behind them asap.
K.O 5.00pm

hefferboi

I was thinking of doing the same. Best of luck.

Kankan14

Bleh. Attempt no.2 to follow

Kankan14

Attempt no.2.

Back at this today,
In Dubai Duty Free WTA tournament Petra Kvitova plays D.Hantuchova priced at 1.34 I make her a good strong bet.
These two have played 5 times Kvitiva leads the h2h 5-0 they've played at least once on every surface Kvitova not having dropped a set yet.
Kvitova is in decent form having taken S.Williams to three sets last week in Doha in what was a very hardly fought match.
This on the other hand is Hantuchova's best run in a while perhaps she's running into a bit of form but all she has beaten is nobodies thus far.
Kvitova is currently no.8 in the WTA rankings and for me should have too much game for Hantuchova.

10 @1.35 on Betfair.


EDIT: to quantify Kvitova's ranking I should have mentioned Hantuchova is ranked mid-60's.

Kankan14

Won 2-0 running balance of attempt no.2 is 12.99.

Kankan14

Bet no.2 in Attempt no.2

S. Errani to beat Cirstea @ 1.45 in Dubai Duty Open WTA Ladies Singles

These two have met 4 times Errani winning the last 3. Cirstea hasn't beaten her since Luxembourg 2008 and Errani is vastly improved since then including a Singles final appearance at last years French Open losing to Sharapova fair and square, she was also in doubles action that same week to her detriment imo a competition she won with compatriot Vinci of Italy also.

Errani has WTA ranking of 7(Cirstea is no.30) and had a singles comp final appearance to her name already this month losing to Barthel in Paris.
She lost to Azarenka in the QF at Doha last week but bounced back dispatching J.Georges in round 1 here.

Cirstea has beaten S.Stephens in her 1st round match here Stephens is a young up and comer so the win is notable but that apart she has struggled just recently. Wozniacki dispatched her with ease in round 2 of Doha last week. Radwanska did the same (also 2-0) in the Fed Cup the week before. She did have a run to the SF in Pattaya where she met her first oppenent in the worlds top 50 and was soundly beaten 2-0 by Kirilenko.

All in all I make Errani a good bet her ranking and recent form and head to head record all lead to her having a big edge in my book. Should mention the two times they've met on hard courts Errani has won.

12.99 @ 1.45 on Betfair.
Match due to start circa 4.15 this afternoon.

billybonds

Best of luck with this, will be following it. Is tennis your forte?

Kankan14

billybonds wrote: »

Best of luck with this, will be following it. Is tennis your forte?

It'll probably be 50% tennis with the other 50% being anywhere I think there's value in a price.

Kankan14

Won 2-0.
Doesn't tell the whole story though. Was 4-0 up in the first back to 4-4 went on to win 6-4. Then was treated for an injury for ten mins at the start of the second set. Went on to win 6-4 as well though job done

Balance 18.09

Kankan14

Bet no.3 is tennis yet again this time mens singles from ATP Marseilles.

J.Tipsarevic takes on D.Tursonov and is a little overpriced at 1.31.
While Tipsarevic has found Tursonov tough to put away in the past he leads the head to head 4-2 and their only previous meeting in indoor ended in a straight forward 2-0 for Tipsarevic.
He is now at no.9 in the ATP rankings dwarfing Tursonov's no.119.

The last time Tursonov beat Tipsarevic was round 1 in Tokyo in 2011 a week after Tipsarevic had gone all the way to the final in Stuttgart. Also that was on hard court which seemed to be playing super fast.
Tipsarevic beat Michael Llodra in the first round here this his first tournament since the Australian Open, where he retired with a heel injury that seems to have cleared up nicely. This is Tursonov's fifth match this week having come through three rounds of qualifying which can't help stamina levels, Tipsa will definately be the fresher player. All in all I can't see barring injury past a Tipsarevic win.

18.09 on Tipsarevic at 1.31 v Tursonov ATP Marseilles Men Singles.
Starts at circa 1.00 this afternoon.

Kankan14

Beaten 2-0

Kankan14

Kankan14 wrote: »

Beaten 2-0

I don't know the circumstances of the defeat but that's very disappointing.

Attempt no.3 to follow

Kankan14

Attempt no.3
Haven't time to do a write up on why I fancy only to say they are champs and flying.

Backing Bayern Munich @1.22 v W.Bremen today 2.30

revz

Following this thread and might try something similar.
Though that should be a safe enough bet, I'm liking Madrid today at Deportivo @1.40.
Although Madrid haven't been in stellar form this season, Deportivo have lost their last 5 in a row and are rock bottom of the league, Real will be wanting to keep up with Atletico.

Kankan14

Bayern won 6-1.
Balance of 12.01 on Porto @1.22 v Rio Ave 8.15 tonight.
I still haven't time to do a decent write up on my phone ATM.
Just to say Rio Ave are a poor enough side and 1/5 about Porto is plenty fair.

Kankan14

Porto won 2-1

Balance on attempt no.3 is 14.54.

Kankan14

For bet no.3 in attempt no.3 I've settled on Olympiakos at home to Aris.
I had looked at Ajax at home to Den Haag with a view to backing both games today but I don't trust Ajax to put away a team who score plenty as many as they concede.

Anyway Aris have taken only 4 points from their 10 games on the road and are currently second last in the Greek top flight. Olympiakos have a very good home record winning 9 from 10. They also have won 7 of their last 8 games. Aris did have a notable victory v Panathinaikos last time out but that was at home where they've picked up 18 of their 22 points to date.

So I'm backing 14.54 on Olympiakos @1.21 v Aris
K.o is 5.00 today.

EDIT to say backed at 1.25 after slight drift

Kankan14

Olympiakos won 2-1.
Ajax drew 1-1 glad I swerved it now.

Balance 18.03

Kankan14

My next bet in attempt no.3 is going to be Jo W. Tsonga in round 1 versus M.Llodra in Dubai.

Tsonga is fresh off the back of winning the ATP Marseilles. With an ATP ranking of 8 and Llodra down at 67, Tsonga has the better recent form by far. Llodra was beaten 2-1 by Del Potro in the last 16 in Marseilles and previous to that had lost in straight sets at the Australian Open in straight sets to Tsonga. Tsonga looked impressive last week in particular against Berdych beating him 2-1 in the final.

There is the possibility that Tsonga will be fatigued as a result of his run at Marseilles but I think the big purse at Dubai will be motivation enough. Tsonga pushed Federer all the way in Australia and was beaten 3-2 in the QF match after that he won a Davis Cup match and lost in the first round at Rotterdam a little break in between tournaments should mean last weeks run doesn't take too much out of him either.

Tsonga has a decent record on hard courts this year too with 7 victories and one defeat. Llodra sole match on hard surface ended in defeat. These two have met 6 times. Tsonga leads 6-0 in the head to head.

Bet placed at an industry best price of 1.28.
18.03 on @ 1.28
Game scheduled to start at 5.20 today.

Kankan14

Beaten in straight sets, deservedly so.
This is proving tough

Attempt no.4 to follow

Kankan14

Attempt no.4 starts straight away.
Grimsby Town at home to Ebbsfleet.

Grimsby have a very solid home record and Ebbsfleet have only picked up 9 points away from home all season. They are down in the Relegation zone of Blue Square Premier. Grimsby need the win to keep in touch up top. Kidderminster and Wrexham have more games played and Grimsby will want to turn their game in hand into 3 points and be level up top again.

Attempt 4: 10 on Grimsby @1.48 on Betfair. Kick off 7.45 tonight.

Kankan14

Won 3-1 running balance on attempt 4 is 14.60

Kankan14

Attempt no.4 rolls on with Fenerbache in the Turkish Cup.

Sometimes Turkish football is seen as dodgy and throws up strange results. Well what football league isn't?!

Anyway Fener take on 1461 Trabzon tonight in the Turkish cup. Trabzon can't qualify with 2 points from their 5 games and Fener have the group won with 13 from 15 and are undefeated. You could argue that the game is a dead rubber and one to avoid. Trabzon have a big league game in the second division Saturday and won't be too pushed with this at all. I suspect they will field a weakened side which is already inferior to Fener. Trabzon are 4th in Div2 while Fener are 2nd in the top flight and have already beaten Trabzon 2-0 away from home.

Fener's home form has been a bit patchy in the league with them losing 3 from 12. However they have scored 24 times and even if they field a weaker side it should still have a decent size edge on the Trabzon one.
Anyway I found the 1.31 a little big and am happy enough to take it.

14.60 on Fenerbache in Turkish Cup on Betfair @1.31

Kankan14

Beaten 3-2
After that I give up.
Since Feb 8th this is the only form of gambling I've done. So I've lost 40 quid since then. Meh I've had worse periods

Kankan14

Couldnt just let this die without trying the 5th and final attempt. Can't do a write-up as I'm on my phone but fancy Colo Colo in the Chilean Primera tonight against Antogofasta.

Attempt 5
10 on Colo Colo @ 1.42 on the betfair
Kicks off 9.30

Kankan14

Kankan14 wrote: »

Couldnt just let this die without trying the 5th and final attempt. Can't do a write-up as I'm on my phone but fancy Colo Colo in the Chilean Primera tonight against Antogofasta.

Attempt 5
10 on Colo Colo @ 1.42 on the betfair
Kicks off 9.30

Drew 3-3, game over ball burst.

I'll be back with another crazy scheme soon :-)