Point to Point bookmaker overrounds

js2012

I was at Bellharbour P2P at the weekend and was as usual disappointed with the bad prices on display in the betting ring. I took a photo of one to work out later... saying to myself that it must be nearly 200%... I was wrong looks like it's 234.8%!!!. Don't get me wrong, I'm there for the racing and the craic but I do like a punt every now and then but these prices eliminate that side. Maybe I'm in the wrong business... maybe my maths is wrong ..:D Any thoughts?

Hulk Hands

That's terrible but you have to take into consideration that it's a point to point and how little money is being punted. There is zero chance for that bookie to create a profit book as there will be 4/5 horses there with no bets on. Also, he is very open to a gamble given that it's a point to point. The only way for him to make money is to hope to take cash on 3/4 'fancies'. He then offers such crap prices that he's likely to make a few bob. Rails bookies at the dogs tracks are the same. Everyone gives out, but are happy the're there when they want to punt their dog that's doing A1 times in trials and is running in A6.

The prices are terrible alright but nobody is forcing anyone to back. If you get a stone cold cert (as many do) at a point you'll be happy that bookie is offering 2/1 each of 5. It's mainstream bookmakers betting to 120% plus that gets my ire up

Colonel Sanders

js2012 wrote: »

I was at Bellharbour P2P at the weekend and was as usual disappointed with the bad prices on display in the betting ring. I took a photo of one to work out later... saying to myself that it must be nearly 200%... I was wrong looks like it's 234.8%!!!. Don't get me wrong, I'm there for the racing and the craic but I do like a punt every now and then but these prices eliminate that side. Maybe I'm in the wrong business... maybe my maths is wrong ..:D Any thoughts?

Yip I make it 234.8% also

At least Dick Turpin had the decency to wear a mask

Although as HH has said I'm sure there are multiple dead ones in each race that you wouldn't lay at 1,000,000/1

js2012

I do take the point that a lot of the horses don't attract any bets, and so the overround is skewed somewhat because of this.

In the 5 year old geldings maiden there were 16 runners and the fav was evens, competitive race too. There were a few in with a shot. but 3 miles over about 18 fences in the muck... there's no sure thing with this to contend with.

JAORTA

js2012 wrote: »

I was at Bellharbour P2P at the weekend and was as usual disappointed with the bad prices on display in the betting ring. I took a photo of one to work out later... saying to myself that it must be nearly 200%... I was wrong looks like it's 234.8%!!!. Don't get me wrong, I'm there for the racing and the craic but I do like a punt every now and then but these prices eliminate that side. Maybe I'm in the wrong business... maybe my maths is wrong ..:D Any thoughts?

Pardon my ignorance js but could you explain how the overround is calculated please??

Colonel Sanders

The way to think about it is that each price can be converted to a probability. If the odds are A/B then the associated probability is B/(A+B)

eg: 2/1 => A = 2, B = 1 so the probability is 1/(2+1) = 33.33%

7/2 => A = 7, B = 2 so the probability is 2/(7+2) = 22.22%

8/13 => A = 8, B = 13 so the probability is 13/(8+13=) = 61.9%

etc etc

In a perfectly round book with the probabilities reflecting the "true" chance of each horse the probabilities add up to 100%. But the bookmaker wants to make a profit so he will assign a higher probability to each horse (and hence lower odds) and will have the probabilities adding to more than 100% (or "over round")

To calculate his theoretical profit you calculate (overround - 100%)/overround

The bookmaker will achieve this theoretical profit if he can lay each horse in the same proportion as it adds to his over round

eg over round is 120% and the favourite is 4/6 (=> probability of 60% or contribution of 60% to the over round) he wants to attract 60/120 (=50%) of his turnover on this horse

In reality this doesn't happen exactly, the bookie will move his prices in line with turnover to try rebalance his book

See the attached spreadsheet for the point to point example, column D is the way he wants his turnover to be laid in order to achieve theoretical profit on turnover

finbarrk

I was in Belharbour myself. Thats the same at every point to point. The bookmakers still don't necessarily win even with those massive over rounds. Spoke to one of them on the way home and he was down a couple of hundred.

nevis7

i was not at bellharbour, i was laying at punchestown. a piece of advice, overrounds are the greatest load of bull in the industry, barring pricing the rags at 1000/1 to tempt the odd fiver, you will not lay half the field, and why for the sake of a fiver would i want to clean a book should the odd ra\g win by accident, because those rags will only win in those circumstances.

the main layer at bellharbour lost a grand on sunday, lucky to lay 4 in a race he said, punters just wanted one or two in each race. the race you picked to photo the board, ended with 2nd fav beating fav, for most books that result would be either a small win or small loss. the days of getting a onner each way of the middle runners have dried up, those bets made the book during the gaelic tiger.

all the smarty pants wannabe bookies make great critics, if they had the balls to stand themselves, take it as certain, they too would not be producing 120 or 130 books as they are works of fiction.

on saturday, i held 5870 over the day. i studied the card for four hours on friday, unlike many of my counterparts, i prepared a tissue and picked out the highly rated ones i wanted to lay. the two i wanted most to lay, drifted and had no takers. you cannot force people to back the ones you dont fancy. gross profit on the day with a degree of grafting 380. clerk 120, hunt and runners 80. fuel and sundries say another 100. net profit 80, for a days work and 4 hours study the previous morning. isnt it as easy as printing money this bookmaking lark.

JAORTA

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

The way to think about it is that each price can be converted to a probability. If the odds are A/B then the associated probability is B/(A+B)

eg: 2/1 => A = 2, B = 1 so the probability is 1/(2+1) = 33.33%

7/2 => A = 7, B = 2 so the probability is 2/(7+2) = 22.22%

8/13 => A = 8, B = 13 so the probability is 13/(8+13=) = 61.9%

etc etc

In a perfectly round book with the probabilities reflecting the "true" chance of each horse the probabilities add up to 100%. But the bookmaker wants to make a profit so he will assign a higher probability to each horse (and hence lower odds) and will have the probabilities adding to more than 100% (or "over round")

To calculate his theoretical profit you calculate (overround - 100%)/overround

The bookmaker will achieve this theoretical profit if he can lay each horse in the same proportion as it adds to his over round

eg over round is 120% and the favourite is 4/6 (=> probability of 60% or contribution of 60% to the over round) he wants to attract 60/120 (=50%) of his turnover on this horse

In reality this doesn't happen exactly, the bookie will move his prices in line with turnover to try rebalance his book

See the attached spreadsheet for the point to point example, column D is the way he wants his turnover to be laid in order to achieve theoretical profit on turnover

Thanks very much Colonel,you went to a lot of bother and explained it brilliantly.

kiers47

On a similar note.
Was talking to a bookie I know who was at the coursing last weekend. He was telling me they were working on a 200% + over round on the out right betting for most of the weekend.. Scandalous stuff.

finbarrk

If the op had to stand on a butter box for 4 or 5 hours in miserable weather conditions his/her over-round would be big too.