Tuesday 5th February

rossom

1.40 Southwell

Supa Seeker 16/1 NAP

Although this 7 year old is a 17 race Maiden with only one place to his name (back in 2010) I fancy him to go close to landing this really weak looking Amateur Riders Handicap as I think he is going to find an awful lot of improvement now switched to fibresand for the first time. Tony Carroll's gelding is clearly well handicapped (if you can say that about a horse who has never won) on some of his old form which includes getting beaten not too far off a mark of 63 back in July 2011 and if he is ever going to strike its going to be off this basement mark of 46. The primary reason I am forecasting a big run from Tony Carroll's charge is on his breeding as his Sire Petionville's progeny have an excellent record at Southwell. Only two of his progeny (McConnell and Forfeiter) have run at Southwell before where they boast an excellent combined record of 10 wins and a place from 24 starts and judged on that Supa Seeker should not only handle the surface but improve on it. Moreover, Supa Seeker's half sister Supaheart was only beaten 1L on her only start at the track so encouragement can also be taken from the dams side of the breeding. With regards to this 7 year old's recent form, I felt he ran a very encouraging and not at all knocked about 4th at Wolves back in December in a race where the first and third have scored subsequently and his last effort can be excused as he was tardy away from the stalls.

Its always risky backing in these Amateur Riders contests which is typified by only 5 of the 13 riders ever riding a winner but I definitely think the trainers son Charlie Carroll is definitely one of the better riders in the contest and he has 1 win from 11 rides to his name and he claims a very valuable 5lb. I've looked back through some of his rides and I was actually pretty impressed with him, especially a ride he gave Polar Auroras where he threw everything he possibly could at him and, based on that effort in the saddle, I certainly have no qualms about backing him in this event. I'm quite happy with the draw in stall 12 as it gives him options with regards to race tactics and even if he is a step slow away it probably wouldn't be detrimental. Given that Supa Seeker seems tactically versatile, I would love to see him sit just in behind what normally is a frantic pace in these contests and also have the option to take up the running if the pace is slow. I really hope he's not hell bent on making the pace, however, as he could easily get into a crazy battle which could see him go off miles too quickly out in front. I think sitting close to the pace is going to be crucial to every horses chances tomorrow as, in addition to it being hard to come from off the pace at Southwell generally, a lot of these jockeys won't be able to get enough out of their horses to make up the ground and I will be very dismayed if Supa Seeker gets quite a bit behind early. Obviously Supa Seeker comes with an awful lot of risks attached given that he is winless in his entire career but this most definitely represents (in my opinion) by far his easiest opportunity to date and if he can't grab it I don't think he'll ever win. I'm slightly concerned that the 1m3f trip may stretch him slightly (inconclusive if he stays this far) but if he builds up a lead in the home straight that may not even matter. All in all if he improves for the switch to fibresand and is given a positive ride by young Charlie Carroll, if he isn't able to win tomorrow off a mark of 46 then I'm not sure his racing career will continue much longer.

Arctic89

Very much fancy Rock Critic in the 1.25 at Fairyhouse and the 11/4 currently available with Bet Victor looks very big. Having a large (for me) chunk on him at that price.

Colonel Sanders

Arctic89 wrote: »

Very much fancy Rock Critic in the 1.25 at Fairyhouse and the 11/4 currently available with Bet Victor looks very big. Having a large (for me) chunk on him at that price.

Money for this one. Make Your Mark almost 4/5 on Betfair

Colonel Sanders

Arctic89 wrote: »

Very much fancy Rock Critic in the 1.25 at Fairyhouse and the 11/4 currently available with Bet Victor looks very big. Having a large (for me) chunk on him at that price.

Well done

Did that very nicely

Arctic89

Cheers Colonel!

Didn't see the race,pretty busy at work today but listened to commentary from the racing post app. Hopefully one for the spring festivals. No doubt Dermot will be eyeing a big flat handicap or even the Galway Hurdle for him too.

kksaints

Population in the 2 00 looks like a good one and is a decent price at 9/4 imo.

Colonel Sanders

Defy Logic is probably a bit of a loose cannon but did that very well. Would have beaten Mad Brian a long way giving away lumps of weight.

You'd have got odds against on Betfair over night.

rossom

kksaints wrote: »

Population in the 2 00 looks like a good one and is a decent price at 9/4 imo.

I really like the horse but lack of entries put me off.

rossom

No complaints about the ride Charlie Carroll gave Supa Seeker there to finish 3rd. Chucked everything he could have at him.

Johner

Population looked a bit of an awkward ride.

kksaints

Johner wrote: »

Population looked a bit of an awkward ride.

Could do with a furlong less I think he was outstayed by the other 2 horses.

Vanolder

rossom wrote: »

No complaints about the ride Charlie Carroll gave Supa Seeker there to finish 3rd. Chucked everything he could have at him.

I'm only a lurker around here and a novice to the sport, but your analysis and confidence when writing up a horse always inspire me to have a flutter- Anyway I got on this at e.w, much thanks.

UrbanSea

Defy Logic looks a machine. Shows how good of a rider JP Magnier is that he got him beaten first time out.

fangee

Well done again Rossom.

Cracking pick.

I always back EW when 4/1 or better.

Dickerty

fangee wrote: »

Well done again Rossom.

Cracking pick.

I always back EW when 4/1 or better.

Likewise, a nice return for today, on the back of 6 back-to-back dog wins last night!

Any tips for later today?

byronbay2

Arctic89 wrote: »

Very much fancy Rock Critic in the 1.25 at Fairyhouse and the 11/4 currently available with Bet Victor looks very big. Having a large (for me) chunk on him at that price.

Good pick but I hope you backed it in PP - paying double the odds on winner of that race.

Slattsy

RichieLawlessness wrote: »

Defy Logic looks a machine. Shows how good of a rider JP Magnier is that he got him beaten first time out.

To my delight as i was in rather heavy on Sizing Gold

UrbanSea

Slattsy wrote: »

To my delight as i was in rather heavy on Sizing Gold

To my dismay I was balls deep in Defy Logic.

Slattsy

RichieLawlessness wrote: »

To my dismay I was balls deep in Defy Logic.

Did you go in again today?

I was tempted to steam in at the 4/5 earlier but bottled it.

UrbanSea

Slattsy wrote: »

Did you go in again today?

I was tempted to steam in at the 4/5 earlier but bottled it.

No i'm too poor at the minute, I would have otherwise. Need to win Euromillions asap

Arctic89

byronbay2 wrote: »

Good pick but I hope you backed it in PP - paying double the odds on winner of that race.

Unfortunately not,they were 9/4 when I got on this morning so I went with Bet Victor at 11/4. Think he touched 3/1 across the board about an hour before the race. Was it doubled because the SP was 3/1?

dvcireland

05 Feb 13

Southwell

Placepot: £4162.50 Quadpot: £233.30