Friday 1st February

rossom

4.20 Lingfield

Maslak 20/1

I'm not a big fan of backing horses in these Amateur Riders races but I think the 20/1 about Maslak looks big given he was successful in this race off a 4lb higher mark last year and who I'm hoping can bounce out and make all to score in this event for the 2nd year running. Although Peter Hiatt's charge came into this race last year in vastly different circumstances, Maslak comes here having recently had a reappearance run on the back of a 9 month absence which I am hoping has put on him spot on for this. Looking at his form last year coming into this race, Maslak was in very good form having put a string of very good efforts together with this corresponding contest his 2nd win in three starts. Last year, Maslak bounced out from his wide draw in stall 12 to get to the front and under an enterprising ride he was kicked clear a few lengths clear turning around the home turn and he was all out to just about hold on by a neck from his nearest rival. The 3rd Kames Park solidified the form by narrowly going down on his next start and it was a fine effort to score off a mark of 59. That was as good as it got for this 9 year old last year although he did run a good 2L beaten 3rd off a mark of 63 last April and he certainly looked in need of a break on the back of a string of poor efforts last summer. After his long absence, Maslak reappeared over tomorrows C+D where I thought he ran pretty well for a long way despite finishing last and it certainly looked a very good blow out for him which hopefully has blown away all the cobwebs and I'm hoping that this has been his target for quite a while.

Tomorrow Maslak is ridden by Miss Michelle Eden who takes off 7lb and who is 0-10 in her career and she is clearly a young jockey plying her trade. Despite not having a winner to date, I think Maslak should be the perfect sort of ride for her given I find its far more advantageous to be on a horse that bounces out in front in these contests and Miss Eden's best ride to date probably came when getting nabbed close home when attempting to make all in a contest at Pontefract last year. Maslak has been given what I feel is the ideal draw in stall 1 which should hopefully allow Miss Eden to break quickly and attack from the front. Although Peter Hiatt isn't in the greatest form at the moment, he had his first winner for a few months at the start of January and has had a couple more placed horses recently. Given that Hiatt also owns this admirable veteran, the fact he has given the ride to Miss Eden leads me to believe that he certainly has faith in her ability and I think there is a good chance he has targeted this race again to hopefully reward her with her first ever winner. Although you can't have too hefty a wager in events of these nature, I'm hopeful of a big run from Maslak who looks well handicapped being 8lb below a solid 3rd last year and 4lb below scoring in this contest last year and if his recent reappearance has put him spot on for this then fingers crossed he can see off his rivals from the front and win this for the 2nd year running at a nice price.

Hulk Hands

Even that you know or have checked her best ride thus far is such evidence that you really do your homework. Great in-depth analysis and i'll be very interested to see if the race pans out as you say, with her attacking from the front

fangee

Jesus. Don't ever start a religion Rossom. You're too convincing and I'd fear for the general Public.

I'm completely sold on your analysis and I'm not even going to bother looking at any race myself.

Simple. I'm going straight to your selection for an EW investment.

I'm doing it at the expense of "get back in line" too who I'd been waiting on.

rossom

haha cheers lads.

rossom

2.45 Catterick

Carmela Maria 14/1

Despite racing from 6lb out of the handicap off an effective mark of 99 and coming back off a woeful run at Sedgefield, I quite fancy the chances of Mike Sowesby's 8 year old now returned to her favourite venue where she has a tremendous record over today's C+D of 1-1-3-1-F. I tipped her up at a big price back in December when she was scoring in the same event for the 2nd year running off the same mark of 85 and it came as absolutely no surprise to me that she won well as it was clear that connections had been targeting that Class 4 event for quite a while. She did so in good style, pulling away after the last to score by 5L in a weak enough event despite not travelling overly well for a large part of the journey. 10 days later at the end of December she tried to repeat history for the 2nd time in consecutive years when sent off the 100/30 favourite under a 7lb penalty and she travelled an awful lot better than she did for her latest victory and there is no doubt in my mind she was going to take a hell of a beating that day before falling at 4 out. It was a shame to see her go down but luckily she didn't seem to do any lasting damage. Her last start came at Sedgefield on the 11th of January where she finished a well beaten 8th but that is of absolutely no concern to me as she is a completely different horse at Catterick - as suggested by her 0-22 record away from the track.

Although its going to take a career best to win today as she is (effectively) 9lb above her last winning mark, I certainly think she's up to defying it. Back in December 2011 she scored by a comfortable 7L (27L clear of the 3rd) from a horse who scored on his only subsequent outing off a 5lb higher mark and perhaps even more telling was her 1L defeat over this C+D last February off a mark of 102. Under today's rider and regular partner 7lb claimer Edmond Linehan, she was given a patient ride and was worked very nicely into the race and looked to hold every chance going over the last but couldn't get there in time as she had to settle for a narrowly beaten 3rd. The form of that race has worked out nicely with the winner Howizee, who probably one a shade cosily, winning 2 starts later off a 2lb higher mark impressively as well as getting beaten a head off a 19lb higher mark 3 starts later and he is 22lb higher than his success that day. Despite being 6lb out of the handicap, she races off an absolutely lovely racing weight of 9-7 when factoring in Ed Linehan's claim and I think its also quite significant that two of her wins came when carrying less than 10 stone and she is clearly a horse who goes well with little weight on her back. This is definitely her toughest test to date as she steps into a Class 3 handicap at the track for the first time but based on her comprehensive victory off a 9lb lower mark and narrow defeat off a 3lb higher mark at the track I definitely feel she's weighted to make her presence felt. Looking through the field, I also think it could be significant that only one of her opponents has ever ran at Catterick's undulating track (well beaten) and she could easily be the best suited horse in the field to the track where I think she is probably 2 stone better than any other venue. With the testing conditions suiting her down to the ground at a track where she has never been beaten more than a length in her completed starts in handicaps, I'm confident of a big showing from this admirable mare on what is her trainer and jockeys only engagements of the day.

rossom

Seems like she found that grade a little too tough today but disappointing all the same!

mike65

2nd, thought he had it for a moment.

Overthelast

Great shout again Fr. Rossom!

fangee

fangee wrote: »

Jesus. Don't ever start a religion Rossom. You're too convincing and I'd fear for the general Public.

I'm completely sold on your analysis and I'm not even going to bother looking at any race myself.

Simple. I'm going straight to your selection for an EW investment.

I'm doing it at the expense of "get back in line" too who I'd been waiting on.

Proper sick.

Not only did i not back "get in line" (was put off him by the thread "saturday 26th of january') but I didn't back Rossoms either.

Not a good day. Double sick.

rossom

I think if there was a more experienced jockey on board he would have won (she never went for the whip) but I knew she was inexperienced before backing him so I can't really complain. Would have been a nice winner though!