Thursday 31st January

rossom

4.50 Wolverhampton

Perlachy 14/1

Quite fancy Ron Harris's 9 year old to go very close in a contest that will pan out very well for him and I'm quietly confident Perlachy can land this contest in a race that his trainer had the winner in last year. Although winless on the AW since last February, (won on turf last July) Perlachy's current mark of 64 is the lowest its been since November 2011 and 2lb below the mark his last victory came off of and I definitely think he's on a mark he can score. Last year for the most part, he held his form pretty well off higher marks most notably when beaten 1L off a 3lb higher mark in September over this C+D and a staying on 1.75L beaten 6th at Kempton off a 4lb higher mark. He had a 3 month break recently before running 24 days ago which I think will have him spot on for this. With regards to tomorrow's contest, these apprentice handicaps are normally ran at a fairly decent clip and there also seems to be a lot of natural pace from some of the other runners and I really think that the race could fall apart for a closer which would be ideal for Perlachy. Gary Phillips takes the ride and a handy 3lb off and I think he is a jockey well worth following in the coming months. He used to be based with Ger Lyons in Ireland but has recently joined the Harris yard and I think that will work wonders for him, as it did so for Darren Egan. He's already had a winner for Harris in the 3 rides he's had and I think he's a jockey with a lot of potential. Drawn stall 2, I think he's got the perfect draw tomorrow which should allow him to bag a sit on the rail. Ron Harris couldn't have his horses in better form at present with 3 winners and two narrowly beaten horses from his last 5 runners and I certainly think he targets this race having the winner last year and a narrowly beaten 2nd in it back in 2010 (no runner 2011). At the moment with 8 runners, I think Perlachy looks an excellent e/w proposition at 14/1 and hopefully none of the horses are pulled. If all goes to plan in the race tomorrow, I'm hopeful of a very big run from Perlachy off a good mark and hopefully he can land this contest at a nice price.

rossom

4.10 Wincanton

Big Occasion 9/2 NAP

I rather like the look of David Pipe's handicap chasing debutant whose latest effort can be excused due to a burst blood vessel and if recovered from that experience I think he'll take an awful lot of beating off a mark of 120. Formerly a pretty talented flat horse for Aidan O'Brien where he reached a peak rating of 95, Big Occasion joined David Pipe at the end of 2011 and he won a couple of decent Novice Hurdles in testing conditions in his first season and he looked a decent acquisition to the NH scene and he was even thought good enough to run in Albert Bartlett (although well beaten). His final start in that sphere came in May of last year in a competitive handicap off a mark of 130 and he made a promising chase debut when finishing a well beaten 3rd in October over 20f at Carlisle in what looks a very strong Novice Chase on the back of a 6 month absence. Sitting just off the leader Chasing Times and clear of the remainder of the field, Big Occasion jumped well in the most part before his two classy rivals passed him at 4 out. After this, Big Occasion got very weary late on and certainly looked in need the run. The form of that race looks very strong with the winner Rival D'Estruval finishing runner up the the talented Bold Sir Brian before in by 23L in a Novice Chase whilst the 2nd Chasing Times has won two of his 3 starts over fences subsequently, most recently when bolting in off a mark of 132. It was clear her ran into a couple of very good prospects and he lost little in defeat that day.

A month later in November, Big Occasion was sent over the same C+D in a Beginners Chase where he was very well supported on the course from 9/2 into 5/2 favourite where he again ran another respectable race when he finished a 16L beaten 3rd. After tracking the leader, Big Occasion took up the running after 7 out but he seemed to get outpaced by the leading pair after four out. He stuck on at the same pace for most of the race thereafter and although connections were clearly disappointed it was a good effort all the same. Again, that looks a pretty decent contest with the 2nd Vintage Star winning subsequently by a heavily eased 28L to earn a chasing mark of 137 and in hindsight it was a pretty good effort. Big Occasion's final start came at the start of December when again quite well fancied 11/4 shot when stepped up to 3m at Chepstow but he broke a blood vessel and reportedly bled from the nose that day and you've clearly got to stick a line through it. Tomorrow sees Big Occasion make his handicap debut off a mark of 120 and judged on what he achieved over hurdles and what he achieved over fences to date I think he looks a well handicapped horse. Moreover, this former Cesarewitch market leader should definitely be suited by the step up to this extended 25f as stamina is certainly his forte. Conor O'Farrell takes the ride and although Pipe's other horse in the race Alderluck has seen a little support tonight to see him go favourite I'm not too concerned about that at all. David Pipe has his string in good order at present and he does well with his chasers at Wincanton. With conditions looking no problem at all, Big Occasion rates as a pretty confident selection for me and I'll be pretty disappointed if he doesn't emerge victorious.

longshotvalue

1:40 Wincanton

Escort'men looks to have gone down too far in the weights to be ignored here. He is obviously not as decent as he was with Nichols but, he wouldn’t need to be in this race of bottom weight. He is miles below his hurdles winning mark and looks value at 20/1


1 Point win 20/1 Paddy Power

3:10 Wincanton

The Sawyer has also been given a chance here in this veteran’s race, and although he isn’t as good as he was obviously, this race could really suit him and I wouldn’t be surprised if he could run well here. 16/1 looks great value.


1 Point EW 16/1 Paddy Power

UrbanSea

Dunno been given a big chance by the handicapper. Not sure of the price on the phone no net though

fangee

Both your races have gone to 7 runners Rossom.

Would that put you off for EW purposes ?

fangee

RichieLawlessness wrote: »

Dunno been given a big chance by the handicapper. Not sure of the price on the phone no net though

Who has been given a big chance by the handicapper ?

rossom

Dunn'o in the Lingfield finale. Best priced 13/2

Yeah Fangee that would put me off e/w. I'd normally to a coverbet 2 places in that scenario.

Stradhero

3.40 Meydan

Got word that Russian Soul is to win today. He is currently priced at 13/2 with powers

fangee

rossom wrote: »

Dunn'o in the Lingfield finale. Best priced 13/2

Yeah Fangee that would put me off e/w. I'd normally to a coverbet 2 places in that scenario.

Ah Rossom. I was trying to get a " who's on first?" going there with Richie on "dunno".

Yeah I'm gonna leave the 7 runner races alone. Cheers.

rossom

The 5/4 available about Valdaw in the 3.00 Lingfield looks a gift. Broke his maiden on stable debut LTO to comfortably beat a subsequent winner. His 5lb rise looks very lenient and Willy Twiston-Davies offsets all of that. Should take the world of beating and I've had a serious bet on.

ft9

Well done on Valdaw, didn't think he was going to get there for you before the bend, looking back on it he done it quiet well.

Luap

rossom wrote: »

The 5/4 available about Valdaw in the 3.00 Lingfield looks a gift. Broke his maiden on stable debut LTO to comfortably beat a subsequent winner. His 5lb rise looks very lenient and Willy Twiston-Davies offsets all of that. Should take the world of beating and I've had a serious bet on.

YES! Had him last time he won. Didn't lump hope you did. :P

Edit: was also unsure coming around the bend.

rossom

rossom wrote: »

The 5/4 available about Valdaw in the 3.00 Lingfield looks a gift. Broke his maiden on stable debut LTO to comfortably beat a subsequent winner. His 5lb rise looks very lenient and Willy Twiston-Davies offsets all of that. Should take the world of beating and I've had a serious bet on.

What a gift. Mike Murphy never lets me down. WTD did a great job conning the handicapper there.

rossom

Quite like the look of Seamus Mullins's Marmalade Man 18/1 in the 3.20 Towcester. Pulled very hard but finished quite nicely LTO in a strong looking Listed contest and makes his hurdling debut with first time blinkers applied. It looks very significant that Andy Thornton comes here to ride this as his only ride as Wayne Kavanagh rides Seamus's other runner in the finale.

BlueBaron

rossom wrote: »

The 5/4 available about Valdaw in the 3.00 Lingfield looks a gift. Broke his maiden on stable debut LTO to comfortably beat a subsequent winner. His 5lb rise looks very lenient and Willy Twiston-Davies offsets all of that. Should take the world of beating and I've had a serious bet on.

why didn u put this up earlier never seen him down to run again today:(...wd on lumping on

Johner

Very impressive bumper winner for Pipe and Timmy Murphy.

tonymantana

5.20 wolverhampton


Takealookatmenow 11/2