Thyestes Chase Day Gowran Park

Slattsy

As usual, its a nightmare trying to pick the winner of this race !

Outlaw Pete is the favourite after a pretty convincing win over the Cross Country course at Cheltenham December, beating Uncle Junior my 11 lenghts, but still has a few lbs to find to win a race like this imo. Tony McCoy comes over to ride Colm Murphy's The Westerner Boy and that could be a tip in itself. Of the shorter priced animals in the field i really like Paul Nolans Panther Claw, who's unexposed and has any amount of potential and improvement in him. The jock is taking another 5lb off him and he'll be going around here with a featherweight of 10st 1lb. He's the one to beat i believe.

However... the one im going for isSon Amix, who although has a lot of weight, has some very good form in the book, and will relish the trip and conditions. I've always thought this fella has been laid out for a big one, and im hoping today is the day. At 12/1 im hoping for a big run.

BlueBaron

Not really a big betting heat from my point of view but gonna have a small saver on bishopfurze, while i think he is a short enough price in such a wide open handicap i feel that he is the class horse in the field, hopefully that class will show and top weight wont burden him, conditions to suit, not fully unexposed with improvemnt expected think he'll go very close


My bet of the day is Bog Warrior 2:25, altough huge fan of Zaidpour who in himself is top class, but have high hopes for the gigginstown horse to excel up at this disatnce.

Backed barneys honor 2:55 the last day it won, very impressed and went into my notebook as a future winner again, altough a 14lb is a hefty rise still think Gordon Elliott can find more improvement out of him

tipster

i backed son amix at 12s barneys honour at 9/4 and lookoutnow at 6s and a treble of dogora bog warrior and sizing tennessee around 4s. heres hoping

redzerdrog

Panther claw
Bog warrior
Lookoutnow
Barneys honour

Trebled and accum

UrbanSea

Was going to back The Westerner Boy at 16/1 yesterday with WH even after the final decs, best priced 7/1 JP must think he has a tonne in hand, not a bet for me at that price.

I'll have my annual losing bet on this on Tarquinius. Never get involved heavily in it though

kiers47

Gonna give In Great Form another chance. Backed him the last day when he was pulled up but he was an eye catcher the time before behind the heavily punted Colbert station over Christmas!
Small bet and 16/1 looks fair

carmanard

Am on In Great Form myself too, he didn't run a yard the last day before being pulled up in a 2 mile 4 race, smelled of a plot, he's only carrying a pound more than Outlaw Pete today and his run at Leopardstown at Christmas had him firmly put in my notebook. This is a race & meeting that Francis Flood likes to target too... Took 16/1 on him, small e/w punt, not expecting anything massive from it though...

kiers47

It seems an insult for there to be such a difference in the prices in the top 2 in the opener. Sabrina Harty's charge surely warrants respect. I had it down for more of a evens and 6/4 type market. Dogora is probably the most likely winner but there isnt much in the form if anything dalisiri's form is slightly better Gonna have a small wager at the 7/2 available on betfair.

Johner

Good man Des, white flag raised and there off. Even though it was only three of the horses going to the start.

Big Daddy Cool

Outlaw Pete for me.1st backed it in the 1st cross country chase in punchestown last year and have backed it every race since, so have to stay with him today.

kiers47

kiers47 wrote: »

It seems an insult for there to be such a difference in the prices in the top 2 in the opener. Sabrina Harty's charge surely warrants respect. I had it down for more of a evens and 6/4 type market. Dogora is probably the most likely winner but there isnt much in the form if anything dalisiri's form is slightly better Gonna have a small wager at the 7/2 available on betfair.

Levelled off in the run at 1.5.. Both look nice horses. Good start to the day!!!

Arctic89

Took Bog Warrior at 10/11 this morning, thought he was a 4/6 shot in reality.

Didn't do any great analysis of the Thyestes but got word that Ros Brin is fancied by the owners to run into a place so took some win and place money on the exchanges. Wouldn't have backed her based on form though.

Johner

Nice performance by Bog Warrior.

Colonel Sanders

kiers47 wrote: »

Levelled off in the run at 1.5.. Both look nice horses. Good start to the day!!!

Was at the same game as you Kiers, backed it at 4.6 on Betfair for a small few quid. Didn't see the race however

I hate the words "just held", would rather be beaten 5l

kiers47

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

Was at the same game as you Kiers, backed it at 4.6 on Betfair for a small few quid. Didn't see the race however

I hate the words "just held", would rather be beaten 5l

He went very short in the run as low as 1.2 or so. Looked all over the winner. Made a slight mistake at the second last.

I almost always have in running lays set up. Just the way I punt!

ft9

JP is backing The Westerner Boy. 4/1 now. I'll be savage if he wins after backing him in Leopardstown and he pulled up.

longshotvalue

no time to look today, went for small bets on medical card 70 and Jadanli at 36 both on betfair..

Colonel Sanders

kiers47 wrote: »

I almost always have in running lays set up. Just the way I punt!

Off topic:

I remember wanting to lay Binocular in the 2009 champion hurdle

It was punted in to under 2.5 on Betfair but I didn't lay it in time. Was around 2.8 at the off IIRC

Stuck an in running lay up at 1.5 on Betfair. Watched the race and smugly thought he'd definitely traded lower so was counting my cash. Think his ir low was actually 1.54, que me not being a happy chappy

Goldcupfav

aidankkk wrote: »

no time to look today, went for small bets on medical card 70 and Jadanli at 36 both on betfair..

Well done. Was going through the form last night and looked at Jadanli's last run in the Welsh National travelled really well till about 1/2 a mile out then faded. Just couldnt bring myself to back him today after a 19 day turnaround. :mad:

BQQ

Backed it when 4th in the troytown. Not today unfortunately.

Happy for connections though. He's run well in a few big h'caps now.
Nice to see him get some reward.

Slattsy

Slattsy wrote: »

However... the one im going for isSon Amix, who although has a lot of weight, has some very good form in the book, and will relish the trip and conditions. I've always thought this fella has been laid out for a big one, and im hoping today is the day. At 12/1 im hoping for a big run.

I know im only speculating.. but im 100% certain Son Amix would have won if he didnt fall

longshotvalue

aidankkk wrote: »

no time to look today, went for small bets on medical card 70 and Jadanli at 36 both on betfair..

lot to be said for not looking at these thing too much:D.

Raging i didnt have to get it up on my site tough...

UrbanSea

Well done Aidan. I nearly cried when they called the photo, so so close

longshotvalue

RichieLawlessness wrote: »

Well done Aidan. I nearly cried when they called the photo, so so close

thanks i didnt mind at all as i was able to lay it off at 1/10 on betfair so for a small cost i got the same whichever won... Some long photo wait though..

shy-tall-knight

Wonder where they'll go with Bog Warrior now. I was hoping that he wouldn't run in this today and sent back over fences for the Hennessy. Had it in my mind that Martin and co. would steam into him on the day, land a massive punt with Bog Warrior slamming Flemenstar up the run in. Don't think he was right when Flemenstar reversed the form emphatically with him last year. He's showing us again how good he possibly is and 3m+ doesn't look like an issue. He'll hardly run in the Hennessy now. With all the chasers Gigginstown (ie First Lieutenant, Sir Des Champs) have this season they could be thinking a soft ground Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury as the long term target whilst keeping him over hurdles for this year. Gigginstown don't seem to have any potential top class novice chasers this year and First Lieuetenant et al won't be handicapped to win it. Bog Warrior off around 150-155 would surely have a massive chance.

All very speculative but I just felt like a bit of a ramble, trying to guess what Tony Martin is going to do with a horse isn't the easiest.

kiers47

shy-tall-knight wrote: »

Don't think he was right when Flemenstar reversed the form emphatically with him last year.

Good post and i agree about Bog warrior for the most part about him chasing but I think while he was probably not right the day in Naas there isn't much doubt that Flemenstar is a much better chaser than bog warrior over 2m4!

jimjamcos

shy-tall-knight wrote: »

Wonder where they'll go with Bog Warrior now. I was hoping that he wouldn't run in this today and sent back over fences for the Hennessy. Had it in my mind that Martin and co. would steam into him on the day, land a massive punt with Bog Warrior slamming Flemenstar up the run in. Don't think he was right when Flemenstar reversed the form emphatically with him last year. He's showing us again how good he possibly is and 3m+ doesn't look like an issue. He'll hardly run in the Hennessy now. With all the chasers Gigginstown (ie First Lieutenant, Sir Des Champs) have this season they could be thinking a soft ground Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury as the long term target whilst keeping him over hurdles for this year. Gigginstown don't seem to have any potential top class novice chasers this year and First Lieuetenant et al won't be handicapped to win it. Bog Warrior off around 150-155 would surely have a massive chance.

All very speculative but I just felt like a bit of a ramble, trying to guess what Tony Martin is going to do with a horse isn't the easiest.

Russell said after today's race that while he can jump a fence well, he was a bit hit and miss while chasing. Also said he's a much easier ride now but that the rough and tumble of a Ryanair/Gold Cup may be a bit much for him at this stage and he'd look towards the World Hurdle with him. No doubt he's a class horse but Flemenstar definitely has his measure over fences with Bog Warrior always capable of bad mistake. Over 3m in World Hurdle with soft in description looks his ideal race!

Pearlstone

Delighted for Jadanli and connections.Gilligan was on a pretty miserable run. I backed him last three runs but deserted him today for Tarquinius.The joys of it!

Arctic89

jimjamcos wrote: »

Russell said after today's race that while he can jump a fence well, he was a bit hit and miss while chasing. Also said he's a much easier ride now but that the rough and tumble of a Ryanair/Gold Cup may be a bit much for him at this stage and he'd look towards the World Hurdle with him. No doubt he's a class horse but Flemenstar definitely has his measure over fences with Bog Warrior always capable of bad mistake. Over 3m in World Hurdle with soft in description looks his ideal race!

If he was mine, there's no way I'd be sending him over fences again.

I was there at Down Royal when he fell and he took a long, long time to get up after that fall. Add that to his fall at Leopardstown last season and he's just too dodgy a jumper to put over fences again. Especially when he has the class he does over hurdles.

ft9

Anyone know how things fared out with The Westerner Boy? Heard he was in trouble and the vet was doing his best...

UrbanSea

Jesus 9 I didn't realise he was in trouble. Hopefully he's ok

jimjamcos

Arctic89 wrote: »

If he was mine, there's no way I'd be sending him over fences again.

I was there at Down Royal when he fell and he took a long, long time to get up after that fall. Add that to his fall at Leopardstown last season and he's just too dodgy a jumper to put over fences again. Especially when he has the class he does over hurdles.

Yes, totally agree. No point him having an engine like he does if he can't get around! Only problem I see with this is Gigginstown's obsession with chasers. They don't, on principle, buy horses to be hurdlers long-term and I've a feeling they'll persist with trying to refine his jumping as a chaser next season given his class.

Nulty

Ugh. Story of punting.

I backed Jadanli in the Troytown and the Welsh National. I hate seeing horses like that win.