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Boylesports.com Handicap Hurdle

  • 23-01-2013 3:06pm
    #1
    Racecaller
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 232 ✭✭


    The Boylesports.com (Handicap) Hurdle (formerly the Ladbrokes, Pierse and MCR Hurdle) takes place at Leopardstown on Saturday 26th January. Run over 2 miles for 4yos and upwards rated 0-145, the last 2 winners ran in the Bar One Handicap Hurdle at Fairyhouse. Trends for the past 10 runnings (tinyurl.com/b22252r) are below:

    Age (Win-Place-Runners)
    5yo: 2-5-63
    6yo: 3-13-68
    7yo: 3-4-60
    8yo: 2-4-42
    9yo: 0-1-18
    10yo+: 0-3-17
    10 of 10 winners were aged 5 to 8, though they did make up almost 87% of total runners.

    Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
    Horses carrying 10-12 or more: 0-9-68
    Horses carrying 10-11 or less: 10-21-200
    Horses carrying 10-11 or less have won the last 10 runnings and are especially favoured in softer ground.
    Top Weight: 09402000083 (0-3-11)
    Horses carrying a penalty (0-1-22) have a particularly bad record, gaining just one place from 22 representatives, 13 of which were sent off 12/1 or below (4 were favourite or co-favourite).

    Official Ratings
    Horses rated 127 or higher: 0-6-49
    Horses rated 116 to 126: 8-15-139
    Horses rated 115 or lower: 2-9-80
    8 of 10 winners were officially rated 116 to 126 and they have filled 23 of 40 places.

    Recent/Past Form
    9 of 10 winners won or placed last time (exception missed out on a place in a grade c h'cap hurdle by a short head on previous start)
    9 of 10 winners had their last start at Leopardstown, Punchestown or Fairyhouse
    9 of 10 winners (last 8) posted an RPR of 119+ last time out
    7 of 10 winners (last 7) had run in the past 35 days
    10 of 10 winners had run no more than 4 times that season
    10 of 10 winners had run in 3 to 9 hurdles
    9 of 10 winners had won 1 to 3 hurdles (exception had yet to win over hurdles but had finished 2nd on last 3 starts)
    10 of 10 winners had run in no more than 5 handicap hurdles
    9 of 10 winners had won no more than 1 handicap hurdle (7 had yet to win one)
    10 of 10 winners were second season hurdlers

    Other Races
    Fairyhouse Membership 2013 Handicap Hurdle winner (Speed Dial): 17 (1-0-2)
    Follow Punchestown On Facebook Novice H'cap Hurdle winner (Grange): 071 (1-0-3)
    Event Hire at Naas Racecourse Handicap Hurdle winner (Worldor): 1508 (1-0-4)
    Previous season's Sean Graham Bookmakers M’dn Hurdle winner (Rocky Wednesday): 2 (0-1-1)
    Holy Cross 5yo Maiden Hurdle winner (Inis Meain): 4 (0-1-1)
    Previous season's Festival Hospitality 3yo M’dn Hurdle winner (Shadow Catcher): 27 (0-1-2)
    Tipperary Water 4yo Hurdle winner (Discoteca): 04 (0-1-2)
    Spring Juvenile Hurdle winner (Hisaabaat): F20 (0-1-3)
    Bar One Racing H'cap Hurdle winner (King Of Queens): 505063 (0-1-6)
    Paddy Power Handicap Hurdle winner (Cairdin): 0607070 (0-0-7)
    4 of 10 winners were placed in a hurdles race at Leopardstown Christmas meeting
    3 of 10 winners ran in a 2M H'cap Hurdle at Punchestown Winter Festival in November, finishing 231
    3 of 10 winners ran in a hurdle at the Punchestown Festival, finishing 365
    2 of 2 Jessica Harrington-trained winners ran in Paddy Power H'cap Hurdle at Leopardstown
    2 of 10 winners (last 2) ran in Bar One H'cap Hurdle, finishing 53

    Trainers
    Jessica Harrington (2-1-14) has trained 2 of the last 7 winners. Both winners had finished 2nd in the Paddy Power H'cap Hurdle at the Leopardstown Christmas Festival.
    Willie Mullins (1-7-30) trained the first 2 in 2011 and trained 3 of the first 4 home in 2010. His 2 winners since 2002 ran in the Bar One Handicap Hurdle at Fairyhouse in December.
    Tony Martin (1-2-9) has gained 1 win and 2 places from his 9 runners since 2003.
    Noel Meade (0-0-17), Charlie Swan (0-0-6), Eddie O’Grady (0-1-10) and Arthur Moore (0-1-10) have struggled in this race, producing 2 places from their collective 43 runners.

    Price
    9 of 10 winners were priced between 5/1 and 16/1
    The one big shock in this race was Penny’s Bill at 50/1 in 2009, when a slightly fortuitous winner over the favourite Psycho in 2nd.
    Favourites (2-1-14) have gained 2 wins in the past decade, giving a level stakes loss of 0.50.

    Summary:
    Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
    • Aged 5 to 8
    • Won or placed last time (ideally at Leopardstown, Fairyhouse or Punchestown)
    • Posted an RPR of 119+ last time out
    • Run in past 35 days
    • Run no more than 4 times this season
    • Run 3 to 9 times over hurdles
    • Run in 5 or fewer handicap hurdles (winning 0 or 1)
    • Second season hurdler
    • Carrying less than 10-12
    • Officially rated 116 to 126
    • Placed in a hurdles race at Leopardstown Christmas meeting
    • Finished in first 5 in the Bar One Handicap Hurdle
    • Finished in first 3 in a 2M H'cap Hurdle at Punchestown Winter Festival
    • Trained by Jessica Harrington, Tony Martin or Willie Mullins
    • Priced 16/1 or shorter


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