CSO figures for December show falls resume

Rereggie Perrin

Prices fall again, all over the country. CSO figures for December:

Summary:
Dublin House prices are 54.4% lower than at their highest level in April 2007 (fell by 1.7% in the month of December 2012 and were 1.7% lower compared to a year earlier)

Dublin Apartments are now 62.3% lower than their peak in February 2007 (rose by 3.7% in the month of December 2012 but were 10.9% lower compared to a year earlier)

Dublin Residential property prices are 56.0% lower than at their highest level in February 2007 (fell by 1.3% in the month of December 2012 and were 6.1% lower than a year ago)

Residential properties in the Rest of Ireland are 46.6% lower than highest level in September 2007 (flat in December 2012 but were 6.1% lower compared to a year earlier)

Overall, the national index is 49.6% lower than its highest level in September 2007 (fell by 0.5% in December 2012 and were 4.5% lower compared to a year earlier)

Zamboni

And that is even with the last of the mortgage approved FTB lemmings jumping for MIR...

TheDriver

And this after a last minute FTB surge.....

EDIT:Zamboni beat me to it!

gurramok

Meanwhile in the Land of Indo who quote estate agents, prices rose! :rolleyes: http://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/house-prices-in-dublin-up-22pc-last-year-after-strong-fourth-quarter-3361179.html

Seriously, Dublin apartments up 3.7%. Is that cash investors or NAMA at play?

Zamboni

gurramok wrote: »

Meanwhile in the Land of Indo who quote estate agents, prices rose! :rolleyes: http://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/house-prices-in-dublin-up-22pc-last-year-after-strong-fourth-quarter-3361179.html

Seriously, Dublin apartments up 3.7%. Is that cash investors or NAMA at play?

That is extraordinary spin. Even from the likes of him.
Luckily, Charlie Weston is not relevant.
He maybe an opinion former for some of the moronic masses but they don't have the capacity to enable his attempts to talk up the market.

Mr. Loverman

Even the RTE headline is weird: "Property prices ease by 0.5% in December"

Ease? WTF?

gurramok

Mr. Loverman wrote: »

Even the RTE headline is weird: "Property prices ease by 0.5% in December"

Ease? WTF?

If they rose you'd hear all about it! Irish Times, Breaking News use the words decline and fall!

(So the CSO index is on mortgage drawdowns only http://static.rasset.ie/documents/news/csoproperty.pdf)

The RPPI is compiled using data on mortgage drawdowns provided on a monthly basis by 8 of the
main Mortgage Lending Institutions under Section 13 of the Housing Act (2002). This data
provides details on the characteristics of properties bought (such as building type and size) as well
as the price paid. It is transactions based; meaning that prices are recorded only where a sale
occurs. Not all residential property transactions are funded by a mortgage (i.e. they are cash
based) and these transactions are excluded from the scope of the index.

kennyb3

2013 should be a bloodbath with Q1 (and possibly some Q2) 2013 buyers sucked into 2012

Rereggie Perrin

The government and much of the media have been determined to convince us that things are looking up and the market has stopped falling. I can understand why the government is doing it - they are doing their job, as they see it - but it's clearly naked self-interest on the part of the Independent and other property-advertising reliant media groups.

Mr. Loverman

It'll work though. The average person believes whatever the media tells them.

I have given up trying to convince people or educate people. Let them be dumb...

TheDriver

PPI is the only thing which tells the truth and in my area, prices are definitely falling except for one or two fools who paid wayyyyyyyyyy too much

Zamboni

Mr. Loverman wrote: »

It'll work though. The average person believes whatever the media tells them.

I have given up trying to convince people or educate people. Let them be dumb...

But they are dumb without finance.
It doesn't matter if everybody believes prices are going up if they cannot effect change themselves.

Mr. Loverman

Zamboni wrote: »

But they are dumb without finance.
It doesn't matter if everybody believes prices are going up if they cannot effect change themselves.

And then there's the people who overpaid two years ago who are now saying no one could have known prices would drop. Those people drive me nuts as I practically begged them not to buy. God damnit, haha.

Glenbhoy

I wouldn't get too excited about this tbh.

December is traditionally a quiet time of year and one would have expected prices to stall or drop from November (given the FTB MIR cliff). Presumably volume was pretty low too?

The reaction from some of ye is akin to an Indo journo hearing an economist report that irish houses are the most undervalued in the world!!

I'd give it a few months before deciding that the dead cat has reached the top of the bounce yet, and tbh, I think there's a few cms left in it yet.

Victor

Rereggie Perrin wrote: »

Prices fall again, all over the country. CSO figures for December:

It is the done thing to include a link.

http://cso.ie/en/media/csoie/releasespublications/documents/prices/2012/rppi_dec2012.pdf

cookie1977

gurramok wrote: »

Meanwhile in the Land of Indo who quote estate agents, prices rose! :rolleyes: http://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/house-prices-in-dublin-up-22pc-last-year-after-strong-fourth-quarter-3361179.html

Seriously, Dublin apartments up 3.7%. Is that cash investors or NAMA at play?

Actually according to the news on RTE this evening, the sales of anything dont include cash buyers. Not sure how much of a difference it would make but it might make a small one in the positive direction I'd imagine

Zamboni

cookie1977 wrote: »

Actually according to the news on RTE this evening, the sales of anything dont include cash buyers.

How many times has it been reiterated on this forum that the CSO stats do not include cash sales?
Pretty much every single time a release gets posted, I'd wager.
It's just tedious now.

Rereggie Perrin

cookie1977 wrote: »

Actually according to the news on RTE this evening, the sales of anything dont include cash buyers. Not sure how much of a difference it would make but it might make a small one in the positive direction I'd imagine

A negative one surely, unless you are suggesting that cash buyers pay more for a property than those reliant on a mortgage? Cash buyers can buy for less as they can close a deal overnight and are not reliant on getting the ok from a bank, or on a chain.

cookie1977

Rereggie Perrin wrote: »

A negative one surely, unless you are suggesting that cash buyers pay more for a property than those reliant on a mortgage? Cash buyers can buy for less as they can close a deal overnight and are not reliant on getting the ok from a bank, or on a chain.

Well I meant postive by sale numbers but yes you're right they could be paying less. Although (and yes this was an auctioneers opinion!!) a Lisney rep was saying that the cash buyers are buying the more "sought after" properties on the market. Aka I presume 3/4 beds in dublin. I don't know. I certainly don't see any recovery as of yet. If some are happy to call a slow down in the rate of property prices dropping a recovery then so be it.

gurramok

cookie1977 wrote: »

Well I meant postive by sale numbers but yes you're right they could be paying less. Although (and yes this was an auctioneers opinion!!) a Lisney rep was saying that the cash buyers are buying the more "sought after" properties on the market. Aka I presume 3/4 beds in dublin. I don't know. I certainly don't see any recovery as of yet. If some are happy to call a slow down in the rate of property prices dropping a recovery then so be it.

Also, cash buyers represented about 40%+ of property purchases in 2012. Your average Joe and Jane(especially FTB's) would not have that size of cash at hand. If cash buyers move on to elsewhere that has a better bargain, its curtains. http://www.independent.ie/national-news/cash-buyers-swooping-to-snap-up-property-bargains-3326621.html

kennyb3

cookie1977 wrote: »

Well I meant postive by sale numbers but yes you're right they could be paying less. Although (and yes this was an auctioneers opinion!!) a Lisney rep was saying that the cash buyers are buying the more "sought after" properties on the market. Aka I presume 3/4 beds in dublin. I don't know. I certainly don't see any recovery as of yet. If some are happy to call a slow down in the rate of property prices dropping a recovery then so be it.

The cash buyers would include those at auction usually at knock down prices - including cash would no doubt have a further drag.

gaius c

Spoke to an Ulster Bank mortgage advisor today and he told me outright that the end of MIR is affecting the amount (downwards) that they can loan people.

2013 will probably hoover up the last of the cash buyers and after that...

Zamboni

gaius c wrote: »

Spoke to an Ulster Bank mortgage advisor today and he told me outright that the end of MIR is affecting the amount (downwards) that they can loan people.

2013 will probably hoover up the last of the cash buyers and after that...

...the usual FTBers will have emigrated, be unemployed, in contract employment, on lower pay or on Job-bridge.
The remaining pool of FTBers in permanent employment with sufficient job security and deposits capable of attaining mortgages will be dramatically reduced.
Add redundancies from civil service to that, and after that...

Victor

I'm not sure if the cash buyers going for the more expensive properties are a material reason for a drop, simply because such buyers were always there. Such buyers would be less interested in MIR ending, so had no particular reason to be in the market any more than normal

The CSO numbers are comparing mortgage-funded buyers with previous mortgage-funded buyers.

Glenbhoy

gaius c wrote: »

Spoke to an Ulster Bank mortgage advisor today and he told me outright that the end of MIR is affecting the amount (downwards) that they can loan people.

2013 will probably hoover up the last of the cash buyers and after that...

It wasn't supposed to, as they were supposed to disregard it for all affordability calculations. I can see why there may have been an informal understanding re MIR, but unless they've increased the mark up for stress testing as a result he may not have been entirely correct.

StillWaters

gaius c wrote: »

2013 will probably hoover up the last of the cash buyers and after that...

I'm not so sure about that, huge and growing amount of cash on deposit, and the Government is determined to make saving as unattractive as possible.

noxqs

the Government is determined to make saving as unattractive as possible.

Yes, because a house is such an attractive high yield low risk investment?

I laughed out loud - I really did. If people want to save they should put it in mutuals/stocks. A house? HAH!

StillWaters

noxqs wrote: »

Yes, because a house is such an attractive high yield low risk investment?

I laughed out loud - I really did. If people want to save they should put it in mutuals/stocks. A house? HAH!

I'm not sure why you quoted me there? The budget just gone DID penalise savers.

Stocks have bubbles too you know?

Rereggie Perrin

StillWaters wrote: »

I'm not sure why you quoted me there? The budget just gone DID penalise savers.

It did I suppose. But it penalised property owners too. Property tax will have a much bigger psychological impact on property ownership than the actual financial impact merits, I think.

StillWaters wrote: »

Stocks have bubbles too you know?

They do. But we aren't in one right now, are we? PEs are looking pretty sensible these days for most stocks.

The_Conductor

gaius c wrote: »

Spoke to an Ulster Bank mortgage advisor today and he told me outright that the end of MIR is affecting the amount (downwards) that they can loan people.

2013 will probably hoover up the last of the cash buyers and after that...

Bank of Ireland are also revising downwards their offers as a result of the end of MIR. I wonder how the rest of the lenders will react.