Ante-Post Betting - A Mugs Game??

byronbay2

I opined in a recent post on this forum that ante-post betting is basically a mugs game these days - the bookies are just taking the piss with their AP prices. I just want to say a big "Thank You" to Paddy Power for corroborating this opinion with the prices they are offering for the Hennessy Gold Cup on the 9th of February.

http://www.paddypower.com/racing/future-racing/hennessy-gold-cup-betting

I haven't worked out the over-round on this market (why bother?) but it must be absolutely astronomical.

Backing at the best morning price (or Betfair, if better) is the only way to bet on horses these days.

Colonel Sanders

Their Lexus prices ante post were absolutely pathetic also. That goes for all firms who priced it up

Bobs Worth was 3/1 the Wednesday before the Hennessy at Newbury but I was able to back it at 11/2 each way 5 places on the day of the race.

The only way you can get value ante post these days, IMO of course, are on the markets that are up months in advance. The likes of the King George, Cheltenham & The Grand National. And even in these cases the prices are a lot skinnier than they used to be. I think Simonsig was under 4/1 for the Arkle before he'd even jumped a fence in public with the race 4 months away

I know nobody who's said they've a tasty ante post docket for the likes of the Paddy Power, Hennessy etc whiles few have tasty prices on some Cheltenham races. Obviously the longer away the race is the greater the risk of a NR. I'd 20/1 Al Ferof for the King George and was rather happy with myself a few days before his injury (was trading at less than 6/1 on Betfair). Not so much after it however!

kiers47

byronbay2 wrote: »

I opined in a recent post on this forum that ante-post betting is basically a mugs game these days - the bookies are just taking the piss with their AP prices. I just want to say a big "Thank You" to Paddy Power for corroborating this opinion with the prices they are offering for the Hennessy Gold Cup on the 9th of February.

http://www.paddypower.com/racing/future-racing/hennessy-gold-cup-betting

I haven't worked out the over-round on this market (why bother?) but it must be absolutely astronomical.

Backing at the best morning price (or Betfair, if better) is the only way to bet on horses these days.

That is a scandolous book alright. It would be surprising if any of them went off much shorter unless the field completely cut up.

Colonel Sanders

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

Their Lexus prices ante post were absolutely pathetic also. That goes for all firms who priced it up

Bobs Worth was 3/1 the Wednesday before the Hennessy at Newbury but I was able to back it at 11/2 each way 5 places on the day of the race.

The only way you can get value ante post these days, IMO of course, are on the markets that are up months in advance. The likes of the King George, Cheltenham & The Grand National. And even in these cases the prices are a lot skinnier than they used to be. I think Simonsig was under 4/1 for the Arkle before he'd even jumped a fence in public with the race 4 months away

I know nobody who's said they've a tasty ante post docket for the likes of the Paddy Power, Hennessy etc whiles few have tasty prices on some Cheltenham races. Obviously the longer away the race is the greater the risk of a NR. I'd 20/1 Al Ferof for the King George and was rather happy with myself a few days before his injury (was trading at less than 6/1 on Betfair). Not so much after it however!

Bookies lose money on the ante-post markets. That's a fact. They only do them because they feel they have to.

Think about it - sure the prices and the margin look terrible but plenty of those horses aren't going to run, and connections are going to know before the bookies do.

Overthelast

I used to get sucked into the odd ante-post derby or cheltenham bet yrs ago, for say €50e/w on some 25/1 shot. The "high" from punting for many gamblers comes from the anticipation (dreaming of what they'll win/do with the proceeds), and to a less degree, from the actual outcome of the event. So I can see the attraction in those who want to start lobbing money into bets well in advance, for Cheltenham say. But your chances of getting some better value, never mind running the risk of whether your pony turns up on the day? Simply not worth it, on any front. I find it hard enough to pick the winner on the day of the event, never mind betting on the pony turning up on the track 8 weeks in advance of an event. I have met plenty of people over the years saying "I got X backed at 33/1" for such and such a race. I have never met anyone who's shown me a ante-post betting docket their proud to display after the event. The one exception is for those who back ante-post and lay off at lower prices on the exchanges -that makes a bit of sense imo and playing that market could yield a few "free" ante-post bets.

So unless you've got some incredible, once in a lifetime information on a big priced horse & can manage to get on a few quid at big prices my advice is to give it a wide berth.

Avoid Ante-post bets. Thats my advice to anyone.

Overthelast

Overthelast wrote: »

I used to get sucked into the odd ante-post derby or cheltenham bet yrs ago, for say €50e/w on some 25/1 shot. The "high" from punting for many gamblers comes from the anticipation (dreaming of what they'll win/do with the proceeds), and to a less degree, from the actual outcome of the event. So I can see the attraction in those who want to start lobbing money into bets well in advance, for Cheltenham say. But your chances of getting some better value, never mind running the risk of whether your pony turns up on the day? Simply not worth it, on any front. I find it hard enough to pick the winner on the day of the event, never mind betting on the pony turning up on the track 8 weeks in advance of an event. I have met plenty of people over the years saying "I got X backed at 33/1" for such and such a race. I have never met anyone who's shown me a ante-post betting docket their proud to display after the event. The one exception is for those who back ante-post and lay off at lower prices on the exchanges -that makes a bit of sense imo and playing that market could yield a few "free" ante-post bets.

So unless you've got some incredible, once in a lifetime information on a big priced horse & can manage to get on a few quid at big prices my advice is to give it a wide berth.

Avoid Ante-post bets. Thats my advice to anyone.

I love ante-post. Partly I'm the punter you describe but I do think if you're smart about it you can get an edge.

You've never met anyone who had an ante-post docket they are proud to display after an event? I find that hard to believe. I've had big ante-post winners myself and I am nothing special.

Overthelast

Overthelast wrote: »

So unless you've got some incredible, once in a lifetime information on a big priced horse & can manage to get on a few quid at big prices my advice is to give it a wide berth.

btw this is why ante-post can be simultaneously bad value for the common punter but a loss-maker for the bookies. They really are standing there waiting to be taken on. Son of Flicka etc

kiers47

Deleted User wrote: »

btw this is why ante-post can be simultaneously bad value for the common punter but a loss-maker for the bookies. They really are standing there waiting to be taken on. Son of Flicka etc

Son of Flicka wasnt gambled on until they went NRNB last year. He was still available at 66/1 the morning of the race.

I think you are delusional to think the bookies don't make money off ante-post markets. At one stage last year Minsk traded at 5/1 for the triumph before he had even jumped a hurdle in public.
There are plenty of people not in the know that do bets on horses that might not even line up never mind win.

Graupel

Is SDC going to the Hennessy?

Overthelast

Deleted User wrote: »

I love ante-post. Partly I'm the punter you describe but I do think if you're smart about it you can get an edge.

You've never met anyone who had an ante-post docket they are proud to display after an event? I find that hard to believe. I've had big ante-post winners myself and I am nothing special.

Well, lets break new ground for me then. Perhaps you'd be kind enough to post up any ante-post bets you've lobbed on & sure I'll keep an eye out for them as the tape goes up in March.

kiers47

Graupel wrote: »

Is SDC going to the Hennessy?

I was thinking the same. I wouldn't be so sure of Tidal Bay showing up either. Just my opinion though.

rossom

kiers47 wrote: »

Son of Flicka wasnt gambled on until they went NRNB last year. He was still available at 66/1 the morning of the race.

I don't think that trick will work two years in a row. Bookies will be very cautious in pricing him up on the day for whatever he turns up for as if you look back at the past two years its as clear as day what has been happening. They won't be done twice in the same manner.

I've taken some of the 33s ante-post this year (backed him night before last year) as I think he'll be less than half that price come the day. Given that he owes me nothing, I'm quite happy to take the risk that he doesn't show up to the Coral at that price.

Overthelast

Overthelast wrote: »

Well, lets break new ground for me then. Perhaps you'd be kind enough to post up any ante-post bets you've lobbed on & sure I'll keep an eye out for them as the tape goes up in March.

Ignore that orinoco. Didn't mean to pin you to the collar there. I'll do up my own log of the bets people mention on the forum & put it up the Monday Cheltenham - a crude scientific test sample.

Rossom - your Son of a Flicka is first in my firing line:pac:

kiers47

Overthelast wrote: »

Ignore that orinoco. Didn't mean to pin you to the collar there. I'll do up my own log of the bets people mention on the forum & put it up the Monday Cheltenham - a crude scientific test sample.

Rossom - your Son of a Flicka is first in my firing line:pac:

You can stick me in for .5pt e/w on Puffin Billy for the Neptune.

** @ 11/1

rossom

I've also done Kashmir Peak 33s and 16s for the Triumph and Golantilla at 20s as well, just a 10er on the latter. They are the only three bets I've done so far.

Overthelast

Fair play. Obviously, when I stick up the list on the Monday of Chelt, it will not have any names etc beside them as they would be irrelevant for the purposes of my little test here. This should be a bit of fun.

Backstreet Moyes

I wouldn't go big on it i do a few sneaky little couple of euro trebles. Done a €4 treble two years ago and was waiting on Call the Police for €4k. Wouldnt mind was told in the preview night he was the best handicapped horse in Ireland and England and he was stink. Although still probably bad bets but just a bit of fun for a few euro not if your backing heavy enough.

redzerdrog

i have done a couple of 5euro trebles over the past week with change i had in my account will post them here when I look up what I did because cant really remember

redzerdrog

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Backstreet Moyes

redzerdrog wrote: »

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Maybe it changed but fairly sure i heard its touch and go about Sizing Europe going to Cheltenham.

Nulty

Nuts102 wrote: »

Maybe it changed but fairly sure i heard its touch and go about Sizing Europe going to Cheltenham.

Why? I never heard that. He has 3 separate entries. What else would he be doing?

As for 6/1 for a horse who has 3 entries and the bet is not on the race the owners want him in is madness. The Ryanair will be a strong race this year, as it was last year.

Overthelast

Overthelast wrote: »

Well, lets break new ground for me then. Perhaps you'd be kind enough to post up any ante-post bets you've lobbed on & sure I'll keep an eye out for them as the tape goes up in March.

All I've had is an idiotic L15 placed this week on horses no shorter now then they were then (and not likely to be much shorter on the day).

If you want after-timing, I had Zarkandar at 33/1 for the Triumph 2 years ago. I find it hard to believe you've never met anyone who had a good win ante-post (even if they are losing overall)

kiers47

kiers47 wrote: »

Son of Flicka wasnt gambled on until they went NRNB last year. He was still available at 66/1 the morning of the race.

I think you are delusional to think the bookies don't make money off ante-post markets. At one stage last year Minsk traded at 5/1 for the triumph before he had even jumped a hurdle in public.
There are plenty of people not in the know that do bets on horses that might not even line up never mind win.

I worked for a bookie for many years - they don't make money ante-post and if they had their way the traders would take it down. They hate it.

Colonel Sanders

I'm not the luckiest ante post punter but have had my successes.

I know one guy who was on Zaynar at 40s & 33s (quite heavily) the year he won the triumph hurdle. Another few lads were backing numbersixvalverde for the national over the summer the year before he won it

One of the unluckiest was a lad tipping away on War Of Attrition for the supreme hurdle. Was having fivers & tenners on for months before the race & ended up with him green for over 10k (he was a student at the time). However he punted it to win 7 or 8k the year he won the gold cup so reckon he's over it now

ste2010

Nuts102 wrote: »

Maybe it changed but fairly sure i heard its touch and go about Sizing Europe going to Cheltenham.

Where did you hear this?

Overthelast

Deleted User wrote: »

All I've had is an idiotic L15 placed this week on horses no shorter now then they were then (and not likely to be much shorter on the day).

If you want after-timing, I had Zarkandar at 33/1 for the Triumph 2 years ago. I find it hard to believe you've never met anyone who had a good win ante-post (even if they are losing overall)

I've no interest in your past ante-post betting coups. I do have an interest in your L15 - just jot it down here please so I can add it to my sample.

I have never met anyone who had a good win ante-post. Not sure where the ambiguity is. Whether you believe me or not is irrelevant.

Hulk Hands

I had an awesome Ante post year last year, having Sprinter Sacre at 8's and 5's, Riverside theater in a 35/1 double with another race he ran, and Synchronised at 20's. I saying that, I had a good few losses also. Ive been more inclined to dabble this year because of that. The Bookies overrounds may be ridiculous, but across the entire market they're not. You just have to spot your value and always back best price. The Betfair overrounds aren't ridiculous either on the markets with liquidity. Races like the Ryanair, with all the possible non-runners, can be a good ante post race if you are sure the horse is going for it. It's certainly not a mugs game if done correctly

Backstreet Moyes

ste2010 wrote: »

Where did you hear this?

Just heard it off one of the lads when out last weekend in fairness pub talk is hardly reliable presume he was talking nonsense so.

Colonel Sanders

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

I know one guy who was on Zaynar at 40s & 33s (quite heavily) the year he won the triumph hurdle.

I knew a few people on that also (unfortunately I was not one of them). In fact we might know the same people.

Overthelast

Overthelast wrote: »

I've no interest in your past ante-post betting coups. I do have an interest in your L15 - just jot it down here please so I can add it to my sample.

I have never met anyone who had a good win ante-post. Not sure where the ambiguity is. Whether you believe me or not is irrelevant.

No need for the attitude but anyway, just to keep you amused (which it will, because like any L15 it's a mugs bet):
Dodging Bullets, Une Artiste, Monksland, Silviniaco Conti

Expected return: €0

Who are you hanging out with to have never met anyone with a good ante-post winner?

Overthelast

Deleted User wrote: »

All I've had is an idiotic L15 placed this week on horses no shorter now then they were then (and not likely to be much shorter on the day).

If you want after-timing, I had Zarkandar at 33/1 for the Triumph 2 years ago. I find it hard to believe you've never met anyone who had a good win ante-post (even if they are losing overall)

Deleted User wrote: »

No need for the attitude but anyway, just to keep you amused (which it will, because like any L15 it's a mugs bet):
Dodging Bullets, Une Artiste, Monksland, Silviniaco Conti

Expected return: €0

Who are you hanging out with to have never met anyone with a good ante-post winner?

I must be hanging around with people who don't bet antepost?

No attitude, just clarity - apologies if I offended. Not intended.

Thanks for the L15 details & I would be delighted if all 4 romp home come March, beating your expected return. Have more faith!!

Overthelast

Overthelast wrote: »

I must be hanging around with people who don't bet antepost?

Well you must be because if they had had a good winner - you would know about it!

byronbay2

redzerdrog wrote: »

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Without wanting to be nasty (and bearing in mind the thread title) I would have to claim QED - those prices are a joke. It's 2 months before the festival even starts!! Keep a note, Redzerdrog, of how many of these horses are a shorter price (assuming they even turn up on the day, in the race you backed them for) than the best available morning price on the actual race day.

As others have mentioned, the Betfair prices for Cheltenham are far, far superior to the bookmakers joke prices. The only problem is that, in most cases, you can only have buttons on them at the moment.

redzerdrog

byronbay2 wrote: »

Without wanting to be nasty (and bearing in mind the thread title) I would have to claim QED - those prices are a joke. It's 2 months before the festival even starts!! Keep a note, Redzerdrog, of how many of these horses are a shorter price (assuming they even turn up on the day, in the race you backed them for) than the best available morning price on the actual race day.

As others have mentioned, the Betfair prices for Cheltenham are far, far superior to the bookmakers joke prices. The only problem is that, in most cases, you can only have buttons on them at the moment.

I would rarely back ante post to be honest. The reasons behind doing them is just to have a small interest with big returns if they miraculously come in. The outlay is very small and I like having the odd treble for interest particularly when I am going to be at the festival. I found I didn't really have the time or inclination to do that type of small bet for interest when I was over last year so just getting it out of the way early.

If they all make it to their respective races on the day and give me something to cheer I will be happy enough

redzerdrog

Overthelast you can also add 300 on sprinter sacre @ evens to your list

jacool

Deleted User wrote: »

Bookies lose money on the ante-post markets. That's a fact. They only do them because they feel they have to.

Think about it - sure the prices and the margin look terrible but plenty of those horses aren't going to run, and connections are going to know before the bookies do.

Bookies aren't in the business of losing money.
If connections are the only ones in the know, that doesn't stop small punters losing their dough on all the non-runners.
At the end of the day, only 1 horse wins, and if the bookies are pricing up some 20-30 odd nags, they are winning.
For the race mentioned here, Betfair are 166% round and Ladrokes are just shy of 200%. The average is over 175%. Win, win, win.

RichieLawlor

Some of my cleverer ante post bets were Crack Away Jack for the arkle after he finished 4th in the Champion Hurdle. Captain Chris for last years CC because Arkle winners always win the CC. I ****ing backed Punjabi for the arkle in 2 different years.

This years gems include Simonsig for the Champion Hurdle, New Years Eve for the Supreme and For Non Stop for the Ryanair. I might as well back Punjabi again for the Arkle. Also probably should never bet Antepost again

ste2010

RichieLawlor wrote: »

This years gems include Simonsig for the Champion Hurdle, New Years Eve for the Supreme and For Non Stop for the Ryanair. I might as well back Punjabi again for the Arkle. Also probably should never bet Antepost again

One hurdles race on ground he hates..I wouldn't rule New Year's Eve out given his price has probably inflated. It's obvious he hates heavy. That run against river Maigue was impressive enough..it'll be interesting if he races another good marker on good or soft even before the festival.

Also for non stop - another I wouldn't rule out. 2 runs on heavy 1 bad run and 1 respectable run. He was a world beater before ascot on good. Decent 3rd in the jewson last year and his race in aintree suggests he has come one. I'd be inclined to side with sizing Europe, champion court, cue card or finians rainbow for the Ryanair though ..sure I might just back them all

klairondavis

New Year's Eve has one major negative against him and that is his sire. Motivator's are complete monkeys and don't fancy the jumping game at all.

byronbay2

Further to the thread title, I see Ladbrokes (and other bookies no doubt) did a nice bit of business on Tidal Bay for The Grand National this week. Weights came out on Monday, Tidal Bay obviously well treated, tipped by Tom Seagal among others, backed from 20/1-14/1 in Ladbrokes only to be pulled from the race on Thursday. Good start for the bookies in the Grand National ante-post "battle"!!

Obviously, anyone who backed Tidal Bay for either the World Hurdle or Gold Cup has also done their dosh!