HEC and ACC Round 6 Permutations

P_1

Right calculators at the ready lads



Leinster have to beat Exeter with a TBP and then hope other results go in their favour.
Munster have to beat Racing with a TBP and then hope other results go in their favour.

Thats the simple part

decisions

Munster can only get 20, no?

P_1

decisions wrote: »

Munster can only get 20, no?

Correct, fixed that, ta

liam12989

Connacht Rugby v Zebre Zebre - Connacht win

Biarritz v Harlequins Quins - Quin win

Glasgow Warriors Glasgow v Northampton Saints - Saints win

Castres v Ulster Rugby - Ulster win

Cardiff Blues Blues v Sale Sharks - Sale win

Montpellier v Toulon - Toulon win

Exeter Chiefs Chiefs V Leinster - Leinster 5 points TBP

Scarlets v ASM Clermont Auvergne - clermont

Munster Rugby v Racing Métro 92 - Munster TBP - 5 points

Saracens v Edinburgh Rugby - Sarries

Leicester Tigers v Toulouse - As long as the loser doesnt get 2 BP's

Treviso v Ospreys - Ospreys Win



This would leave both Irish sides on 20 and qualify both as top losers

errlloyd

P_1 wrote: »

Right calculators at the ready lads



Leinster have to beat Exeter with a TBP and then hope other results go in their favour.
Munster have to beat Racing with a TBP and then hope other results go in their favour.

Thats the simple part

Effectively there are only three teams that are likely to make twenty points while being runners up, leinster, munster and montpellier.

Luckily montpellier are up first, if they lose then leinster and munster only need tbp wins.

circos

Biarritz have 14 tries! :eek:

Not good if Leinster finish on 19 points.

P_1

errlloyd wrote: »

Effectively there are only three teams that are likely to make twenty points while being runners up, leinster, munster and montpellier.

Luckily montpellier are up first, if they lose then leinster and munster only need tbp wins.

Pretty much.

We don't want Montpellier getting more than one point against Toulon
We don't want a 4-2, a 5-2 or a 3-3 in the Leicester Toulouse match.

If both these happen and both Leinster and Munster get TBP wins then both go through.

jamiedav2011

circos wrote: »

Biarritz have 14 tries! :eek:

Not good if Leinster finish on 19 points.

Unlikely that Biarritz will get a TBP against Quins though.

circos

jamiedav2011 wrote: »

Unlikely that Biarritz will get a TBP against Quins though.

True true. Just **** myself there for a second..carry on :pac:

irfrm

Dont see Toulouse and Leicester both to go to Q/finals

shootout between Munster/Leinster

P_1

For Ulster a win against Castres should give them a home QF provided that Saracens don't go primeval against Edinburgh

awec

If Montpellier win, then one of Leinster or Munster are out. Correct?

tolosenc

Ok, so here are the pools heading into the final week:

Pool 1 | Points | Tries | +/-
Saracens | 18 | 10 | 71
Munster | 15 | 9 | 37
Racing Metro | 12 | 7 | 1
Edinburgh | 0 | 2 | -109


Pool 2 | Points | Tries | +/-
Toulouse | 18 | 14 | 52
Leicester | 16 | 13 | 12
Ospreys | 11 | 10 | -1
Treviso | 1 | 7 | -63


Pool 3 | Points | Tries | +/-
(Q) Harlequins | 24 | 27 | 165
Biarritz | 14 | 14 | 29
Connacht | 8 | 4 | -47
Zebre | 0 | 5 | -147


Pool 4 | Points | Tries | +/-
(Q) Ulster | 19 | 12 | 70
Northampton | 14 | 6 | -8
Castres | 13 | 5 | -20
Glasgow | 2 | 4 | -42


Pool 5 | Points | Tries | +/-
(Q) Clermont | 23 | 19 | 120
Leinster | 15 | 8 | 19
Exeter | 9 | 4 | -64
Scarlets | 6 | 2 |-75


Pool 6 | Points | Tries | +/-
(q)Toulon | 23 | 23 | 122
Montpellier | 18 | 5 | 39
Sale | 4 | 5 | -108
Cardiff | 2 | 10 | -53


Pool 1:
Saracens are favourites to top this pool, needing only to beat lowly Edinburgh at home. Edinburgh themselves are already eliminated from all European competition this season, and will have nothing to play for but pride. Racing Metro will travel to Thomond Park next Sunday for what is set to be one of the bigger clashes of the final round. Racing cannot top the pool, but are well in the hunt for a spot in the Amlin Challenge Cup. Victory of any kind will be enough to secure European rugby for after the Six Nations break. Their hosts Munster, are still in the hunt for a Heineken Cup quarter final berth. To progress as group winners they need to win, and hope Edinburgh upset Saracens. The head to head between the top two is even, as such Munster will need the TBP in their victory and to hope for an upset in order to top the pool. However, their best bet looks to be as a best runner up.

Pool 2:
Ospreys and Treviso are both eliminated, leaving a straight shootout between Leicester and Toulouse at Welford Road next Sunday. With 20 points looking to be the benchmark for a best runner up spot, only one of these two great European teams will emerge from this pool. Leicester will need to win if they wish to progress, but only a bonus point win will make it absolutely sure. Toulouse could, theoretically lose but still pick up the 2 bonus points that would see them top the pool.

Pool 3:
Harlequins have already sealed their place in the last 8 this year, and will be going to Biarritz in confident mood, looking to secure a home quarter final, which looks more than likely as it is. The Basque club itself is in dire straits. Needing to win to remain in Europe, they will require nothing short of a miraculous string of results on the final weekend to keep them in the hunt for a Heineken Cup final. Connacht play Zebre in a dead rubber that the Westerners will be looking to use to boost moral after a decent season for them in Europe.

Pool 4:
Ulster have clinched top spot due to their head to head with Northampton, and will be looking for an all too uncommon win on French soil in order to book a quarter final at Ravenhill. Castres, for their part, are still in the hunt. Although they are not mathematically eliminated from the Heineken Cup, they can only really hope for a spot in the Amlin Challenge Cup. They will need to beat Ulster, and hope Northampton and at least one of the other runners up lose to remain in Europe. Northampton take on the already out Glasgow, knowing that progression in the tournament is, like Castres, out of their hands. A bonus point win should keep them in Europe, however.

Pool 5:
Clermont will travel to Llanelli looking to secure a home quarter final, which might as well be a semi final spot given their more than impressive home record. A win of any kind would be good enough, but may not even be necessary. Clermont are deserving favourites for this year's championship, but no team to win all their pool matches has ever won it all come May. Double defending champions Leinster face a daunting trip to Sandy Park, needing to do what only Clermont have done this season: win with a bonus point. Finally looking like they are in gear, the Irish giants are not down and out just yet. A bonus point win is a must, anything less and it's firmly out of their hands.

Pool 6:
Sale and Cardiff will play for pride alone after disappointing European campaigns for each. Toulon, at worst, will qualify as a best runner up. Standing between them and total pool domination is Montpellier. The trip along the Mediterranean coast is a short one, but the match itself is enormously important in determining qualification for the quarters. The threat from the two big Irish clubs is such that Montpellier will be looking to win to ensure progress. However, Toulon are not yet mathematically assured of a home quarter final, and would be fools to risk having to travel. A bonus point point would be enough to secure a home game. It is set to be a mouthwatering clash.

The best runners up:
On the face of it, it's two from Montpellier, Munster and Leinster who will take the spots. The two Irish provinces will need bonus point wins to feel in any way comfortable, but the only way both will qualify is by praying that Toulon get it done. That result will be known before wither of them springs into action. Munster are the better positioned of the two Irish provinces, both in terms of points and tries, as well as playing second. They will know that they need to score as many tries as Leinster did the day before. Northampton will need two of the above three teams to lose, and for them to get a 5 pointer in order to have a shot. Everyone else requires even more favourable results. Munster's lack of form of late means the Thomond faithful will be praying that Racing Metro have given up.

Home quarter finals:
A smart man would put the house on Clermont and Harlequins being home quarter finalists. Toulon are near as damnit, but they will need to perform against Montpellier to make absolutely sure (and here's hoping they do). It;s very unlikely that pool 2 will produce a home quarter finalist, and as such it's a shootout between Saracens and Ulster for the last spot.

Combinations from an Irish perspective:
For Munster to win Pool 1:
Saracens lose (No BPs) & Munster win (BP or not)
Saracens lose (1 BP) & Munster win (BP, or by 34 minus Edinburgh's margin of victory + score at least one more try than Saracens)

For Ulster to get a home QF:
Ulster win (BP)
Ulster win (No BP) and ((Saracens win (No BP) or Saracens win and score no more than two more tries than Ulster) or (Toulouse don't finish on 23 points))

For Munster to get a home QF:
Munster win (BP) and Munster win Pool 1 and Ulster lose (No BPs) and Leicester win (No BP) and Leicester win Pool 2.

For both Leinster and Munster to qualify as best runners up:
Leinster win (BP)
Munster win (BP)
Montpellier lose (at most 1 BP)
*Note: Biarritz & Toulouse have try counts such that Munster and Leinster will need to get to 20 points to avoid potentially losing out to them.

For Leinster (only) to qualify as a best runner up:
Leinster win (BP) and Munster win (No BP) or Munster win (BP, scoring 2 or more tries fewer than Leinster) or Munster win(BP, scoring one try fewer than Leinster, and having a winning margin 19 less than Leinster's) or Munster loss/draw.

For Munster (only) to qualify as a best runner up:
Munster win (BP) and Leinster loss/draw/win(No BP) or Leinster win (BP, scoring no more tries than Munster) or Leinster win (BP scoring one more try than Munster, but winning by less than 18 more than Munster win).

Phew.

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TL;DR:

COME ON TOULON!

B0X

Permutations for the provinces: Quick and dirty, let me know if there are mistakes... (Which I'm sure there are)

Munster vs Racing
Munster Win = 19 Points
Munster TBP Win = 20 Points with Munster on at least 13 tries.
All other results = Munster realistically cannot qualify

Leinster vs Exeter
Leinster Win = 19 Points
Leinster TBP Win = 20 Points with Leinster on at least 12 tries.
All other results = Leinster realistically cannot qualify

Leicester vs Toulouse
Toulouse Win = Leicester on a maximum of 18 points (loss with TBP and LBP) Leaving Leinster/Munster unaffected by this result.
Leicester Win with Toulouse not obtaining any bonus points = At least 20 points for Leicester who then qualify as group winners, Toulose remain on 18 points leaving Leinster/Munster unaffected by this result.
Leicester Win with Toulouse gaining a single bonus point = At least 20 points for Leicester who then qualify as group winners, Toulouse finish on 19 points who will then realistically qualify ahead of Leinster/Munster based on tries scored in the case of Leinster/Munster not obtaining a bonus point in their away game.
Leicester win with Toulose gaining two bonus points = Both Leicester and Toulose finish on at least 20 points in the scenario. Realistically, whoever finishes in second will eliminate both Leinster/Munster even if they score a TBP in their away game due to the huge difference in tries scored.

Biarritz vs Harlequins
Biarritz TBP Win = Biarritz finish second in the pool on 19 points and will finish ahead of Leinster/Munster (should they fail to get a TBP in their away games) due to the try difference.

Northampton vs Glasgow
Northampton TBP Win = Northampton finish on 19 points but with a very low chance of finishing higher than Leinster/Munster (should they fail to get a TPB in their away games) due to their poor try scoring record in their pool.

Montpellier vs Toulon
Montpellier Win = Montpellier secure best runner up spot with no possibility of being overtaken by Leinster/Munster in any scenario.
Montpellier Loss with LBP = Montpellier finish on 19 points will effectively eliminate Leinster/Munster (should they fail to get a TPB in their away games)
Montpellier Loss with TBP and LBP = Montpellier finish on 20 points will effectively eliminate other teams on 20 points due to their high try record.

tolosenc

Ah ****e. This wasn't here when I started my thread!

Jedwardian

Discounting the possibility of Toulouse getting a two point loss from their trip to Welford Road, to be certain of reaching the quarter final Leinster must get a try bonus point win away to Exeter. If Munster don't get a try bonus point win, Leinster qualify. If Munster do get a bonus point win, Leinster will have to score two tries more than them or score one more try and win by 19 points more than Munster win by.

I think.......

B0X

It is possible for both Leinster and Munster to qualify if both get TBPs in their away games and:

• (Montpellier 19) - Montpellier lose to Toulon with only a single bonus point or less
• (Leicester / Tolouse 19) - Tolouse win or Leicester Win without Toulouse getting 2 BPs
• (Everyone Else 19 or less) - Maximum of 19 for all other teams in contention.

liammur

tolosenc wrote: »

Ok, so here are the pools heading into the final week:

Pool 1 | Points | Tries | +/-
Saracens | 18 | 10 | 71
Munster | 15 | 9 | 37
Racing Metro | 12 | 7 | 1
Edinburgh | 0 | 2 | -109


Pool 2 | Points | Tries | +/-
Toulouse | 18 | 14 | 52
Leicester | 16 | 13 | 12
Ospreys | 11 | 10 | -1
Treviso | 1 | 7 | -63


Pool 3 | Points | Tries | +/-
(Q) Harlequins | 24 | 27 | 165
Biarritz | 14 | 14 | 29
Connacht | 8 | 4 | -47
Zebre | 0 | 5 | -147


Pool 4 | Points | Tries | +/-
(Q) Ulster | 19 | 12 | 70
Northampton | 14 | 6 | -8
Castres | 13 | 5 | -20
Glasgow | 2 | 4 | -42


Pool 5 | Points | Tries | +/-
(Q) Clermont | 23 | 19 | 120
Leinster | 15 | 8 | 19
Exeter | 9 | 4 | -64
Scarlets | 6 | 2 |-75


Pool 6 | Points | Tries | +/-
(q)Toulon | 23 | 23 | 122
Montpellier | 18 | 5 | 39
Sale | 4 | 5 | -108
Cardiff | 2 | 10 | -53


Pool 1:
Saracens are favourites to top this pool, needing only to beat lowly Edinburgh at home. Edinburgh themselves are already eliminated from all European competition this season, and will have nothing to play for but pride. Racing Metro will travel to Thomond Park next Sunday for what is set to be one of the bigger clashes of the final round. Racing cannot top the pool, but are well in the hunt for a spot in the Amlin Challenge Cup. Victory of any kind will be enough to secure European rugby for after the Six Nations break. Their hosts Munster, are still in the hunt for a Heineken Cup quarter final berth. To progress as group winners they need to win, and hope Edinburgh upset Saracens. The head to head between the top two is even, as such Munster will need the TBP in their victory and to hope for an upset in order to top the pool. However, their best bet looks to be as a best runner up.

Pool 2:
Ospreys and Treviso are both eliminated, leaving a straight shootout between Leicester and Toulouse at Welford Road next Sunday. With 20 points looking to be the benchmark for a best runner up spot, only one of these two great European teams will emerge from this pool. Leicester will need to win if they wish to progress, but only a bonus point win will make it absolutely sure. Toulouse could, theoretically lose but still pick up the 2 bonus points that would see them top the pool.

Pool 3:
Harlequins have already sealed their place in the last 8 this year, and will be going to Biarritz in confident mood, looking to secure a home quarter final, which looks more than likely as it is. The Basque club itself is in dire straits. Needing to win to remain in Europe, they will require nothing short of a miraculous string of results on the final weekend to keep them in the hunt for a Heineken Cup final. Connacht play Zebre in a dead rubber that the Westerners will be looking to use to boost moral after a decent season for them in Europe.

Pool 4:
Ulster have clinched top spot due to their head to head with Northampton, and will be looking for an all too uncommon win on French soil in order to book a quarter final at Ravenhill. Castres, for their part, are still in the hunt. Although they are not mathematically eliminated from the Heineken Cup, they can only really hope for a spot in the Amlin Challenge Cup. They will need to beat Ulster, and hope Northampton and at least one of the other runners up lose to remain in Europe. Northampton take on the already out Glasgow, knowing that progression in the tournament is, like Castres, out of their hands. A bonus point win should keep them in Europe, however.

Pool 5:
Clermont will travel to Llanelli looking to secure a home quarter final, which might as well be a semi final spot given their more than impressive home record. A win of any kind would be good enough, but may not even be necessary. Clermont are deserving favourites for this year's championship, but no team to win all their pool matches has ever won it all come May. Double defending champions Leinster face a daunting trip to Sandy Park, needing to do what only Clermont have done this season: win with a bonus point. Finally looking like they are in gear, the Irish giants are not down and out just yet. A bonus point win is a must, anything less and it's firmly out of their hands.

Pool 6:
Sale and Cardiff will play for pride alone after disappointing European campaigns for each. Toulon, at worst, will qualify as a best runner up. Standing between them and total pool domination is Montpellier. The trip along the Mediterranean coast is a short one, but the match itself is enormously important in determining qualification for the quarters. The threat from the two big Irish clubs is such that Montpellier will be looking to win to ensure progress. However, Toulon are not yet mathematically assured of a home quarter final, and would be fools to risk having to travel. A bonus point point would be enough to secure a home game. It is set to be a mouthwatering clash.

The best runners up:
On the face of it, it's two from Montpellier, Munster and Leinster who will take the spots. The two Irish provinces will need bonus point wins to feel in any way comfortable, but the only way both will qualify is by praying that Toulon get it done. That result will be known before wither of them springs into action. Munster are the better positioned of the two Irish provinces, both in terms of points and tries, as well as playing second. They will know that they need to score as many tries as Leinster did the day before. Northampton will need two of the above three teams to lose, and for them to get a 5 pointer in order to have a shot. Everyone else requires even more favourable results. Munster's lack of form of late means the Thomond faithful will be praying that Racing Metro have given up.

Home quarter finals:
A smart man would put the house on Clermont and Harlequins being home quarter finalists. Toulon are near as damnit, but they will need to perform against Montpellier to make absolutely sure (and here's hoping they do). It;s very unlikely that pool 2 will produce a home quarter finalist, and as such it's a shootout between Saracens and Ulster for the last spot.

Combinations from an Irish perspective:
For Munster to win Pool 1:
Saracens lose (No BPs) & Munster win (BP or not)
Saracens lose (1 BP) & Munster win (BP, or by 34 minus Edinburgh's margin of victory + score at least one more try than Saracens)

For Ulster to get a home QF:
Ulster win (BP)
Ulster win (No BP) and ((Saracens win (No BP) or Saracens win and score no more than two more tries than Ulster) or (Toulouse don't finish on 23 points))

For Munster to get a home QF:
Munster win (BP) and Munster win Pool 1 and Ulster lose (No BPs) and Leicester win (No BP) and Leicester win Pool 2.

For both Leinster and Munster to qualify as best runners up:
Leinster win (BP)
Munster win (BP)
Montpellier lose (at most 1 BP)
*Note: Biarritz & Toulouse have try counts such that Munster and Leinster will need to get to 20 points to avoid potentially losing out to them.

For Leinster (only) to qualify as a best runner up:
Leinster win (BP) and Munster win (No BP) or Munster win (BP, scoring 2 or more tries fewer than Leinster) or Munster win(BP, scoring one try fewer than Leinster, and having a winning margin 19 less than Leinster's) or Munster loss/draw.

For Munster (only) to qualify as a best runner up:
Munster win (BP) and Leinster loss/draw/win(No BP) or Leinster win (BP, scoring no more tries than Munster) or Leinster win (BP scoring one more try than Munster, but winning by less than 18 more than Munster win).

Phew.

---

TL;DR:

COME ON TOULON!

Very good write-up, there's 2 threads on it now. I just checked the bookies and Toulon are the outright favourites. Leinster's price is narrowing the whole time.

Toulon [URL="javascript:void(0)"]12/5[/URL]Saracens[URL="javascript:void(0)"]9/1[/URL]Munster[URL="javascript:void(0)"]25/1[/URL]Clermont Auvergne[URL="javascript:void(0)"]13/5[/URL]Leinster[URL="javascript:void(0)"]12/1[/URL]Montpellier[URL="javascript:void(0)"]50/1[/URL]Ulster[URL="javascript:void(0)"]6/1[/URL]Toulouse[URL="javascript:void(0)"]14/1[/URL]Northampton[URL="javascript:void(0)"]200/1[/URL]Harlequins[URL="javascript:void(0)"]15/2[/URL]Leicester[URL="javascript:void(0)"]16/1[/URL]Biarritz[URL="javascript:void(0)"]500/1[/URL]Each Way Terms 1/3 places 1,2

awec

This is still head melting.

liammur

awec wrote: »

If Montpellier win, then one of Leinster or Munster are out. Correct?

Correct.

justsomebloke

awec wrote: »

This is still head melting.

Pretty much we all want Toulon, harlequins, Munster and Leinster to win with try bonus points

tolosenc

liammur wrote: »

Very good write-up, there's 2 threads on it now. I just checked the bookies and Toulon are the outright favourites. Leinster's price is narrowing the whole time.

Started writing this thread before the other one appeared. Forgive me!

Just want to add, that for Munster to get a home QF, there also need to be try balancing between them and Leicester.

Richard Hillman

Thank god all the matches are not all on at the same time. Skys in-running table will be like the stock exchange.

liammur

tolosenc wrote: »

Started writing this thread before the other one appeared. Forgive me!

Just want to add, that for Munster to get a home QF, there also need to be try balancing between them and Leicester.

Munster def can't get a home QF. Leicester and Toulouse can still deprive the Irish teams a place in the last 8.

WorldRugby99

i dont think its a given that quins will win at biarritz-its a tough place to go usually so personally i think clermont/toulon much more likely to win their games and finish top 2,so 7th/8th most likely to be away to france.quins are already guaranteed a home Qfinal arent they ? so they may take foot off pedal next weekend.
the big game is montpellier v toulon obviously-montpellier win and they guaranteed a spot and only one other.

2 things to note-
are munster likely to score 4 or more v racing,unless racing already out and dont show up
can leinster win down in exter and score 4 or more?
munsters looks more likely
and of course if leicester./toulouse was a tryfest,unlikely yes,but both could go through

anything could happen-but its guaranteed not every result will go as predicted-someone will slip up somewhere

porterbelly

Racing Metro have a 5 day turnaround to their Top 14 game v Bordeaux so it's extremely likely they'll send their seconds.

No excuses for Munster not to get the BP if this is the case. Particularly with ROG more than likely suspended.

funtime93

porterbelly wrote: »

Racing Metro have a 5 day turnaround to their Top 14 game v Bordeaux so it's extremely likely they'll send their seconds.

No excuses for Munster not to get the BP if this is the case. Particularly with ROG more than likely suspended.

O'Gara suspended??

awec

funtime93 wrote: »

O'Gara suspended??

Could be cited.

porterbelly

awec wrote: »

Could be cited.

Should

It was a petulant and immature act that a man of his experience should be ashamed of.

He may not have maimed anyone in the process but these type of acts should be stamped out.

P_1

So with one round left we have 14 teams who are mathematically still in the Heineken Cup: Harlequins, Toulon, Clermont, Ulster, Toulouse, Saracens, Montpellier, Leicester Tigers, Munster, Leinster, Biarritz, Northampton Saints, Castres Olympique and Racing Métro 92.

These 14 teams can: Best case: Make the Heineken Cup QFs, Middle Case: Make the Challenge Cup QFs, Worst Case: Get knocked out of both.

4 of these teams have already made the QFs: Harlequins, Toulon, Clermont and Ulster which means that they can be joined by 4 of Saracens, Montpellier, Leicester Tigers, Munster, Leinster, Biarritz, Northampton Saints, Castres Olympique and Racing Métro 92.

tolosenc

porterbelly wrote: »

Racing Metro have a 5 day turnaround to their Top 14 game v Bordeaux so it's extremely likely they'll send their seconds.

No excuses for Munster not to get the BP if this is the case. Particularly with ROG more than likely suspended.

As a Leinster fan, I hope ROG gets away scot free.

Glass Prison 1214

tolosenc wrote: »

As a Leinster fan, I hope ROG gets away scot free.

As an Ireland fan, I hope he doesn't and gets banned for the beginning of the Six Nations so Madigan can be on the bench.

durkadurka

He'll get a couple of weeks max!

porterbelly

durkadurka wrote: »

He'll get a couple of weeks max!

Jerry Flannery got 6 weeks

The big thing for Munster is they will know what they need to do. Leinster could get a tough game at Exeter. All they can do is try and get the bp win and add on any more tries if possible. Its all ifs and buts, both sides will have regrets about this weekend but Munster are still in the box seat just about.

durkadurka

porterbelly wrote: »

Jerry Flannery got 6 weeks

Not in the same league!

duckysauce

durkadurka wrote: »

Not in the same league!

yep Jerry had a bit more power behind his kick compared to Rogs