Wednesday 9th January

rossom

1.20 Ludlow

Sublime Talent 12/1

I think Evan Williams 7 year old Sublime Talent has an excellent chance off a mark of 120 now dropped in class and upped in trip for the first time over fences and if ridden a little more prominently he could prove rather difficult to beat. Formerly with Dermot Weld, he showed some very decent form on the flat with probably his best effort coming when he scored off a mark of 76 back in July 2010 and he also showed some good form over hurdles when scoring from the talented pair of Laganbank and Groody Hill for his Irish handler back in May 2011. He joined Evan Williams in October of that year and was successful over hurdles on his stable debut at Ludlow when dead heating that month. His hurdling career was moderate after that as he finished runner up on a couple of occasions but chasing was always going to be his forte and he made a really promising start to his chasing career last summer and he looked like a horse of a good deal of potential over the larger obstacles. Sublime Talent made his chasing debut over an extended 2m at Fakenham in May 2012 where he was probably a fortunate winner. Under tomorrow's jockey Adam Wedge, he sat in 3rd behind the talented Escort'men who had set off in front and was closing that leader down (who was still going well) when he fell 3 out, bringing down the struggling 2nd Mike Towey and also hampering Sublime Talent who just about navigated the danger as he was left miles clear of the other 2 runners as he came home to an easy success. Its pretty hard to learn much about that race but he certainly looked to be running a fine debut over fences before being gifted victory.

Sublime Talent made it 2-2 over fences in fine style on soft ground at Perth in June 2012 and looked a very good chasing prospect when asserting close home to go away at the finish over 2m. In the 4 runner field, Sublime Talent shouldered a 7lb penalty (so did his 2 main rivals) where he was given a fine ride by Adam Wedge to score impressively. In a steadily run race, Sublime Talent tracked the leader for most of the race and came alongside that leader as well as the odds on favourite Lord Redsgirth up the home straight and after the last fence he quickened clear in taking fashion to score by nearly 4L but he was pulling right away at the finish. Lord Redsgirth brought a really nice standard to that race given he had won a handicap at the course off a mark of 121 two months prior but given the proximity of the 3rd Kai Broon (rated 114) leads me to believe that it isn't the most rock solid piece of form as it was run at a steady pace. Nevertheless, Sublime Talent showed a really likable turn of foot to draw clear in the run in making a perfect start over fences. Although his unbeaten start to his chasing career came on his next start later that month over an extended 2m at Newton Abbott, he lost very little in defeat as he couldn't give his winning stablemate Tiger O'Toole 4lb as he went down by a neck. Under a double penalty, Sublime Talent tracked the leader Indian Daudae and pulled up alongside him at 4 out. Jumping the last, he and his stablemate were up alongside each other and although Sublime Talent held every chance but he lost out in a battle. Both Tiger O'Toole and Indian Daudae give that form a really solid look and a replication of that effort would certainly see him go extremely close off his current mark.

After this he made his handicap debut off a mark of 128 came in a Class 2 handicap where he propped on landing at the 6th flight which cost him all chance and its best to ignore that effort. His 3rd last start came in a Novice Chase where he was shouldered with 12-3 and he was unable to land a blow as he was a well beaten 4th in a race where it suited being close to the pace. His 2nd last start came at the start of November in a Listed Hanidcap where he was left about 5L behind the rest of the field as Adam Wedge thought it was going to be a false start. He made some decent enough progress up the home straight to finish a 20L beaten where he shaped as if he needed further off a mark of 128. His last start came at the end of November off a mark of 125 where he was again held up out the back in a race that suited those close to the pace as he finished a modest 14L beaten 4th where he again plugged on without threatening the leaders. For that effort he has been dropped what I feel is a very kind 5lb to a mark of 120 which resultantly allows him to qualify for a Class 4 0-120 event for the first time. Reopposing tomorrow is his stablemate Get It On who finished 8L ahead of him on his last start but he does have a 15lb swing with him (5lb official mark, Conor Ring's 10lb claim) and although Paul Maloney technically looks the to be on the first string that doesn't bother me as Adam Wedge seems to be his regular pilot. What I think will be key to his chances is the step up to 2m4f for the first time over fences and although he never won over this far over hurdles he put in some good efforts at the trip and I definitely think he'll significantly benefit from it. When analysing his first 3 starts over fences, I definitely think his mark of 120 is within his grasp and having won at the track is a big bonus to me. With Evan Williams in good form and Adam Wedge's 3lb claim alleviating his weight of 11-12, I'm confident of a big performance from this 7 year old who is dropped in grade and I think he'll run a big race.

rossom

2.50 Doncaster

Lisheen Hill 14/1

Fascinating contender on his handicap debut for Richard Phillips off a mark of 108 on what will just be his 3 start over hurdles and under rules but I definitely think that the handicapper has let him in lightly and that he's weighted to run a very big race. Before joining current connections, Lisheen Hill had 4 Point to Point starts in Ireland between February and April of last year and on his 2 completed starts he won one and finished runner up in the other on debut. Its hard to quantify the form of that form but his win did throw up a winner and although he probably didn't beat much it showed he at least has won already. On the back of a 7 month absence, this 7 year old made what I thought was a really promising debut over hurdles when he was a not knocked about 15L beaten 4th in a good contest over 2m5f at Kempton in November when it looked clear that he needed the run. On good to soft ground under Jason Maguire, Lisheen Hill travelled very nicely throughout the race and he took up the running after 4 out. He was headed after 3 out and Jason Maguire proceeded to take care of him and let him come home in his own time as he finished a very good 4th. The 3rd and 5th had earned marks of 125 and 123 respectively prior to that race and brought a fairly decent level of form to the race. He really shaped as if he was a horse that would certainly be winning races in my eyes.

Lisheen Hill's 2nd start came last month at Sedgefield on soft ground over an extended 2m5f where he looked as if he was slightly disappointing in finishing a 24L 4th behind an easy winner but I don't think its that simple. Firstly, he tried to go with Donald McCain's impressive and easy victor Witness In Court which I think took a lot out of him as he came home a very tired horse. In addition, his trainer has stated that he would prefer better ground (his point runs were all on Soft) and he also didn't like the undulating track at Sedgefield and I think he will definitely prefer Doncaster's flat, galloping track. Its a little bit risky judging a horse's handicap mark based on seeing just one run but I thought he shaped like a very decent horse that day and I'll be pretty surprised if he isn't better than a mark of 108. He's dropped back to just shy of 2 and a half miles for tomorrow's contest and although he'll surely be suited over further in future I'm sure in a race of this nature there is sure to be quite a bit of pace and his extra stamina should benefit him, as well as the fitness and experience of his first two starts under rules. Denis O'Regan is a very eye catching booking in my eyes on what is his first start for the yard and I think its interesting that he stays around after the opening contest just for this ride which I'm hoping signals that he is fancied to run well. Richard Phillips's form is hardly inspiring with his only winner in the last 3 months coming in November whilst his 0-12 at the track isn't great either. Although he's been set a difficult enough task on his handicap debut in a 19 runner minefield, I think he's been let in lightly by the handicapper and although its not a race to get too heavily involved with I think he's worth a small bet at a decent price.